(09-17-2016 08:22 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  I'm not saying their wins are flukes. I'm saying they can't be extrapolated to season-long success at even the CUSA level. Not with FCS scholarships, at least.

I am not entirely convinced that CUSA Football is above FCS level at the moment.

(09-17-2016 10:49 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(09-17-2016 10:37 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  I agree with the bolded part. If NDSU's yearly FBS game was against any team from CUSA, I'd say that it's not unreasonable they could beat any of them. My point is about those who say that NDSU, as constructed now, with FCS scholarship levels, could be dropped into an FBS conference and immediately be competitive if not dominant. Injuries and attrition would take a toll, more so on them with their lesser depth than with FBS programs, and they'd be in rougher shape by the end of the season.

I presume a FBS NDSU would be better than an FCS NDSU. Deeper, if nothing else. But how good they would be is sort of difficult to parse because for as bad as the bad FBS conferences are, they still have significant advantages over even the best FCS conferences, more so than P5 vs. G5 (at least both give the same number of scholarships)

I may have just missed being around for MT's transition, but I've watched what...a dozen or so FCS teams transition in the time since. I'm very familiar with everything you're talking about. As a matter of fact, you sound a whole lot like me talking about App/GS about four or five years ago.

Look, NDSU could struggle in transition, it's definitely possible, but if App can go 7-5(6-2) and 11-2(7-1) and GS can go 9-3(8-0) and 9-4(6-2) respectively in their first two seasons in the Sun Belt, I don't think 7-5(5-3) as a worst case(among likely scenarios) is that crazy for the Bison in a hypothetical first CUSA season.

I think NDSU would be immediately competitive in the MAC after transition. The MWC would take a bit longer, I believe. One challenge they'd have, more so than App or GaSo, would be travel -- either they're going to Buffalo and Ohio in the MAC or Hawaii, California, New Mexico, Nevada and Idaho in the MWC. And those are the "close" FBS conferences. Not that the MVFC is a bus league, but this would be a marked uptick in travel.

CUSA would be interesting because the travel would be even more arduous. They'd probably go unbeaten or lose once at home, but wins at home against FIU or UTEP turn into losses on the road. It wouldn't be as profound as Hawaii when they were dominant at home and garbage on the road, but it would definitely be a factor. That said, I could definitely buy 7-5 (5-3) as a possible first CUSA season record.

I do think NDSU can be a competitive FBS program. What I don't think, and it comes up on the CSN boards and other places, is that a win against a good FBS program means that you can drop them in an FBS conference right now with FCS scholarships and budget and they'd immediately be a player, if not an outright favorite to win the title. That's a bridge too far.

I would think NDSU and the MAC make a perfect pairing.

(09-17-2016 11:00 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(09-17-2016 10:49 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(09-17-2016 10:37 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  I agree with the bolded part. If NDSU's yearly FBS game was against any team from CUSA, I'd say that it's not unreasonable they could beat any of them. My point is about those who say that NDSU, as constructed now, with FCS scholarship levels, could be dropped into an FBS conference and immediately be competitive if not dominant. Injuries and attrition would take a toll, more so on them with their lesser depth than with FBS programs, and they'd be in rougher shape by the end of the season.

I presume a FBS NDSU would be better than an FCS NDSU. Deeper, if nothing else. But how good they would be is sort of difficult to parse because for as bad as the bad FBS conferences are, they still have significant advantages over even the best FCS conferences, more so than P5 vs. G5 (at least both give the same number of scholarships)

I may have just missed being around for MT's transition, but I've watched what...a dozen or so FCS teams transition in the time since. I'm very familiar with everything you're talking about. As a matter of fact, you sound a whole lot like me talking about App/GS about four or five years ago.

Look, NDSU could struggle in transition, it's definitely possible, but if App can go 7-5(6-2) and 11-2(7-1) and GS can go 9-3(8-0) and 9-4(6-2) respectively in their first two seasons in the Sun Belt, I don't think 7-5(5-3) as a worst case(among likely scenarios) is that crazy for the Bison in a hypothetical first CUSA season.

I think NDSU would be immediately competitive in the MAC after transition. The MWC would take a bit longer, I believe. One challenge they'd have, more so than App or GaSo, would be travel -- either they're going to Buffalo and Ohio in the MAC or Hawaii, California, New Mexico, Nevada and Idaho in the MWC. And those are the "close" FBS conferences. Not that the MVFC is a bus league, but this would be a marked uptick in travel.

CUSA would be interesting because the travel would be even more arduous. They'd probably go unbeaten or lose once at home, but wins at home against FIU or UTEP turn into losses on the road. It wouldn't be as profound as Hawaii when they were dominant at home and garbage on the road, but it would definitely be a factor. That said, I could definitely buy 7-5 (5-3) as a possible first CUSA season record.

I do think NDSU can be a competitive FBS program. What I don't think, and it comes up on the CSN boards and other places, is that a win against a good FBS program means that you can drop them in an FBS conference right now with FCS scholarships and budget and they'd immediately be a player, if not an outright favorite to win the title. That's a bridge too far.

NDSU would skull drag FIU in Fargo, in Miami and on the moon.

(09-18-2016 10:21 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(09-17-2016 11:00 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(09-17-2016 10:49 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(09-17-2016 10:37 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  I agree with the bolded part. If NDSU's yearly FBS game was against any team from CUSA, I'd say that it's not unreasonable they could beat any of them. My point is about those who say that NDSU, as constructed now, with FCS scholarship levels, could be dropped into an FBS conference and immediately be competitive if not dominant. Injuries and attrition would take a toll, more so on them with their lesser depth than with FBS programs, and they'd be in rougher shape by the end of the season.

I presume a FBS NDSU would be better than an FCS NDSU. Deeper, if nothing else. But how good they would be is sort of difficult to parse because for as bad as the bad FBS conferences are, they still have significant advantages over even the best FCS conferences, more so than P5 vs. G5 (at least both give the same number of scholarships)

I may have just missed being around for MT's transition, but I've watched what...a dozen or so FCS teams transition in the time since. I'm very familiar with everything you're talking about. As a matter of fact, you sound a whole lot like me talking about App/GS about four or five years ago.

Look, NDSU could struggle in transition, it's definitely possible, but if App can go 7-5(6-2) and 11-2(7-1) and GS can go 9-3(8-0) and 9-4(6-2) respectively in their first two seasons in the Sun Belt, I don't think 7-5(5-3) as a worst case(among likely scenarios) is that crazy for the Bison in a hypothetical first CUSA season.

I think NDSU would be immediately competitive in the MAC after transition. The MWC would take a bit longer, I believe. One challenge they'd have, more so than App or GaSo, would be travel -- either they're going to Buffalo and Ohio in the MAC or Hawaii, California, New Mexico, Nevada and Idaho in the MWC. And those are the "close" FBS conferences. Not that the MVFC is a bus league, but this would be a marked uptick in travel.

CUSA would be interesting because the travel would be even more arduous. They'd probably go unbeaten or lose once at home, but wins at home against FIU or UTEP turn into losses on the road. It wouldn't be as profound as Hawaii when they were dominant at home and garbage on the road, but it would definitely be a factor. That said, I could definitely buy 7-5 (5-3) as a possible first CUSA season record.

I do think NDSU can be a competitive FBS program. What I don't think, and it comes up on the CSN boards and other places, is that a win against a good FBS program means that you can drop them in an FBS conference right now with FCS scholarships and budget and they'd immediately be a player, if not an outright favorite to win the title. That's a bridge too far.

NDSU would skull drag FIU in Fargo, in Miami and on the moon.

Even an NDSU that played 10 or 11 FBS teams of varying quality while having FCS scholarships and roster numbers, taking multiple trips outside their time zone and having to travel with whoever the have left clear out to Miami? NDSU would keelhaul FIU right now, yes, but in November, with injuries and the grind of an FBS schedule taking its toll and the backups representing a steep drop? That's a different story.

I'm not even saying that NDSU as constructed now and thrust into CUSA immediately would go winless. Depending on how the schedule is constructed (front loaded with the harder games), they might do respectably. But they wouldn't be as daisy-fresh as they are now at the end of the season, and that's the sort of thing that turns wins into losses and close losses into lopsided losses.

It has nothing to do with the talent level on the field and on the sidelines. It's about depth.

You keep making the same argument. NDSU would beat FIU in week 1, in week 5, in week 12, they'd beat them in a bowl game. They'd beat them indoors, they'd beat them outdoors. They'd beat them on Thursday, they'd beat them on Saturday.

NDSU has reached the zenith of FCS performance. Their dominance, though challenged in the last two years, has held firm. Nothing lasts forever, but I could see NDSU playing juggernaut for a while longer yet. They've turned heads, beaten each of the last five FBS opponents they've played, and just now knocked off a ranked P5 team. It has veritably been a golden age for Bison football and I'm sure the university at large has been riding the benefits as far as they will go. Some may deride it as being "Kings of the Kiddie Pool", but they have a good thing going right now. NDSU could move up, but I don't think they will.

There's the matter of geography. Then the financials of a potential move-up, including travel costs, additional scholarships (both FB & Title IX add-ons if applicable), exit fees, and entrance fees. And it is all moot if the invite never materializes, and it may not ever materialize. Like I said, they have a good situation currently. It would take something sure and lucrative for them to give that up.

I don't think it would benefit NDSU to move up...

- They already sell out every game
- They have the atmosphere of a big time program
- They get more attention that any team in the MAC, CUSA, or SB
- They would have to spend more money; could they get more ROI?
- They earned their championships now, if they move up they will never make the playoff

Unless FBS changes where all conference champions get a spot in a playoff, why move up?

(09-18-2016 04:08 PM)blueraidermike Wrote:  I don't think it would benefit NDSU to move up...

- They already sell out every game
- They have the atmosphere of a big time program
- They get more attention that any team in the MAC, CUSA, or SB
- They would have to spend more money; could they get more ROI?
- They earned their championships now, if they move up they will never make the playoff

Unless FBS changes where all conference champions get a spot in a playoff, why move up?

I think basing their hypothetical move on whether or not they could make the playoff is putting the cart about ten miles in front of the horse.

First and foremost, let Houston run the table and be held out of the playoff, then I'll agree that they may never make the playoff as the playoff is presently constructed. That said, I'm not sure I agree that it will take guaranteed autobids for all conference champs to get a G5 member in the CFP. I believe that when the playoff expands to eight, the chances are better than not that G5 gets one conditional spot, similar to the set up under the BCS.

They would dominate CUSA, the MAC or the Belt. They have a better pedigree moving up then Marshall did in 1997 and we went 10-3, 12-1, 13-0 in our first three years in the MAC. Oh, and the MAC then was better than CUSA is now.

If they can do this well with 65 scholarships, how good would their staff be with 85 of them?

They would be favored against every G5 team on a neutral site except Houston.

In the last 6 years, the question for NDSU is when have they lost to a P5 or FBS team? I mean sheesh.

They've beaten Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Kansas, Kansas State and a G5 Colorado State.

Their coaching staff is amazing. Last year, Wentz went down last year for 5-6 games at least and they still won all of those games. They don't miss a beat.

(09-19-2016 08:27 AM)BlueraiderJT Wrote:  In the last 6 years, the question for NDSU is when have they lost to a P5 or FBS team? I mean sheesh.

They've beaten Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Kansas, Kansas State and a G5 Colorado State.

Their coaching staff is amazing. Last year, Wentz went down last year for 5-6 games at least and they still won all of those games. They don't miss a beat.

They are a solid program that seem to come outta nowhere. We all know how easy it is to get up for that one big game a year and they seem to do it everytime! But playing that level of competition every week takes its toll and depth just isn't there. I think they would do ok at first moving up if they did but they would have to start competing for higher level recruiting which is not as easy.

(09-17-2016 08:37 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(09-17-2016 08:31 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(09-17-2016 08:22 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(09-17-2016 05:28 PM)STexMiner Wrote:  

(09-17-2016 03:12 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Nice win, but let's keep it in perspective: NDSU has never had to play FBS teams back to back. Would they beat Iowa a week after playing even a bad FBS team? Or if they played a full FBS schedule and faced them in Week 10?

They'd win a few games in CUSA, but if they finished .500 or better, that'd say a lot more about the conference than it does about them.

Let's not do this. Isn't that what every P5 apologist says when one of their prized pigs gets beaten by one of us?

Nothing but respect for beating Iowa at their place, or any other FBS team at their place. This is directed to those who see NDSU win a single game like this and immediately declare them FBS-ready. It doesn't work like that. It's not a video game in exhibition mode where you play every game at 100 percent health; they would take the same beating that everyone takes when they have to play 11 FBS teams in the same season and not over the course of 11 years.

And before anyone says anything: If NDSU played ODU this week, they would have won easily. If the play next week, NDSU very likely wins. At the end of the season? Who knows how attrition would affect them? They almost certainly wouldn't be the same team they are now. ODU was very competitive at East Carolina in the beginning of the 2013 transition season. The season-ending game against North Carolina, well, we all know what happened there. And ECU crushed the Tar Heels that season. Transitive property gives way to getting your roster beat up to hell and back with few capable backups at that level.

WTF? Have you not been paying attention the past six or seven years. One win?? They just won their sixth straight over P5 program including ranked P5 programs. Name me one G5 that has done that in the past 20 years. I think they are ready enough.

You've completely missed my point. They play one FBS team every year. There is a BIG difference between playing one FBS team a year and playing 11 FBS teams in a year. Maybe not in the starting lineup, but definitely in the second string and beyond that. Expecting NDSU or any FCS team, no matter how good, to be able to replicate a strong performance against an FBS team 11 more times without any drop off due to injuries or other issues is not really fair.

I'm not saying their wins are flukes. I'm saying they can't be extrapolated to season-long success at even the CUSA level. Not with FCS scholarships, at least.

The Sunbelt or CUSA "grind" isn't THAT much different (if any) than the FCS. I think NDSU could win the Sunbelt or CUSA, probably finish 2 in division in the MAC, maybe 2nd to 4th in the MWC, and yes last in most P5 Conferences. When Marshall moved up from I-AA they dominated the MAC (4 straight championships, nearly 5). You're rational is right on IF a team like NDSU would move from FCS to a P5 conference. But from FCS to CUSA, I believe they could hold their own.

I am certain half of our current conference could not finish top 4 in gateway...Was a solid conference when Western was in conf. and I am sure just as solid especially with NDSU...

(09-19-2016 09:57 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  Almost fairly certain half of our current conference could not finish top 4 in gateway...Was a solid conference when Western was in conf. and I am sure just as solid especially with NDSU...

Almost fairly certain?