Once again, I'm going to track the Rice Owls football team's Massey performance ratings this season, as well as those for the rest of the Conference USA teams and Rice's non-conference opponents. Unfortunately, I was rather busy the last couple of weeks and didn't have time to post the numbers until now. To review, the Massey performance rating is a measure of how the Owls performed in individual games as opposed to a rating calculated from season-long results. It's found by taking the power rating for Rice's opponent in Ken Massey's rating system, adjusted for homefield advantage (if the game is not played at a neutral site) and adding to it the score difference in the game (positive for a Rice win, negative for a loss). The result is a rating for each game played during the season. For example, in Rice's first game, a 46-14 loss to Western Kentucky, the performance rating would be WKU's power rating (currently 55.62, plus the Hilltoppers' homefield advantage of 3.13; a game at Rice Stadium would have the Owls' homefield advantage subtracted from the opponent's power rating) added to the score margin (-32, negative because the Owls lost) to yield a performance rating of 26.75. Unlike the standard Massey ratings, which represent team strength as a composite of results from the entire season, the performance rating measures only how the team performed in that individual game, so over the season a series of ratings is compiled, one for each game played. Standard statistical tests can then be used to evaluate how the team is performing over the course of the season.

Rice's second game was no improvement over the first; the 31-14 loss to Army produced a performance rating of 25.89. The loss was especially disappointing given the remainder of the Owls' schedule for the season. Looking at the opposition, there were six games one figures the Owls should be favored to win (North Texas, UTSA, Prairie View A&M, Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, and UTEP) and five where Rice is a definite underdog (Western Kentucky, Baylor, Southern Mississippi, Louisiana Tech, and Stanford). The one game that looked to be a tossup was Army, and the Owls lost it. That makes qualifying for a bowl game significantly harder. Rice can't slip against any of the lesser opponents on the schedule now, unless the Owls manage to upset one of the good teams on the schedule (and right now Massey doesn't give Rice any better than a 13% chance to win any one of those games, so it looks unlikely to happen). This week's opponent is Baylor, whose first two games against Northwestern State and Southern Methodist yielded performance ratings of 63.59 and 60.88, respectively. With those numbers, unless Rice performs significantly better, we're looking at something in the neighborhood of a 30-point loss.

I'll be travelling again, so I may not be able to update the numbers immediately, but I'll do it as soon as I can.

I'm back, but unfortunately things didn't change for the Owls while I was gone. The loss to Southern Mississippi was actually the best performance of the season for Rice, coming in at 34.40, but the Owls are still on pace for their worst season since 2010. Here's how the season has gone so far:

@Western Kentucky: 22.79
@Army: 28.66
Baylor: 32.44
North Texas: 15.85
@Southern Mississippi: 34.40

Here are the numbers for all Conference USA members:

Team, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation:
1. Middle Tennessee 50.28 48.00 14.41
2. Western Kentucky 49.97 50.72 7.15
3. Southern Mississippi 49.88 49.77 7.47
4. Louisiana Tech 44.72 48.30 9.09
5. Old Dominion 40.90 40.47 10.69
6. Marshall 40.33 39.62 18.72
7. Florida Atlantic 32.75 27.74 14.54
8. Florida International 28.83 23.66 11.33
9. Rice 28.66 26.83 7.57
10. Texas-San Antonio 27.07 28.90 14.67
11. Texas-El Paso 26.19 20.91 23.10
12. North Texas 25.89 27.89 6.24
13. Charlotte 15.48 20.29 15.48

Despite Rice's poor performance this season, there's still four teams that have a lower median performance rating, which is a testimony as to how bad C-USA is this year. From these numbers, it looks like MTSU and WKU will fight it out for the East crown, while Southern Miss has the inside track to the West title.

The Owls are off this week, so next week I'll take a look at the numbers versus UTSA.

Consistency is one of coach Bailiff's strong points.

Thanks as always, Jonathan! Wow, Charlotte is abysmal...

Although Rice didn't play last week, the Owls' numbers dropped a little bit due to results from other games. Here's how the season has gone so far:

@Western Kentucky: 21.30
@Army: 27.86
Baylor: 31.26
North Texas: 20.28
@Southern Mississippi: 30.93

Here are the numbers for all Conference USA members:

Team, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation:
1. Middle Tennessee 50.50 48.16 13.09
2. Western Kentucky 49.48 49.75 7.27
3. Southern Mississippi 46.78 44.25 14.15
4. Louisiana Tech 45.35 48.54 7.91
5. Old Dominion 44.55 44.61 11.17
6. Marshall 36.35 34.58 18.89
7. Texas-San Antonio 35.72 37.87 18.40
8. Florida Atlantic 31.83 26.47 14.17
9. North Texas 28.60 32.27 10.72
10. Florida International 28.37 25.73 12.12
11. Rice 27.86 26.33 5.24
12. Texas-El Paso 22.59 19.07 20.51
13. Charlotte 21.62 24.83 17.31

(10-06-2016 10:49 PM)mrbig Wrote:  Thanks as always, Jonathan! Wow, Charlotte is abysmal...

Right on cue, Charlotte won its first C-USA game ever by surviving a last-second apparent touchdown pass by Florida Atlantic that was overturned on replay. The 49ers weren't the only underdogs to win, either - I can't remember a week when more underdogs won C-USA games. Louisiana Tech over Western Kentucky might have been a mild upset with the Bulldogs playing at home, but UTSA's 23-point win over Southern Miss and North Texas's 17-point victory over Marshall were shockers. The conference standings are completely screwed up now, but what does seem apparent now looking at the numbers is that Middle Tennessee looks to be in command of the East race should it beat WKU this weekend, while the West is in total disarray, although you'd still have to favor USM or Tech to win it.

You're right about one thing, though - Charlotte, as well as the bottom of C-USA, is still abysmal. In this week's Massey ratings, C-USA teams occupy the bottom four spots in the rankings (Rice is next to last, ahead of only UTEP). That's why, even with the low rating, the Owls still have a good shot of winning at least three games, maybe even more.

This week, the Owls host the Roadrunners of UTSA. The Roadrunners' big win over USM just highlights their bizarre streakiness, as a look at their season shows:

Alabama State: 14.92
@Colorado State: 35.72
Arizona State: 49.06
@Old Dominion: 27.50
Southern Mississippi: 62.16

UTSA's standard deviation is a very high 18.40, which contrasts with Rice's low 5.24. The Owls are much more consistent; however, this season they're consistently bad. That makes this game interesting to pick. Running a Mann-Whitney U test on the data shows that, although UTSA has a higher median rating than Rice, due to the wide variation in the Roadrunners' ratings no significant difference can be found between the two teams at the 5% level. One other thing to note is that UTSA's two road games this season have been two of their worst performances, and this game is being played in Houston. So while the Roadrunners might initially appear to have the edge in this game, there are factors which point toward the Owls picking up their first win of the season as well.

Rice had its highest-rated performance of the season against Texas-San Antonio at 33.47 but only scored just enough points to lose 14-13. It was the Owls' first one-point loss since a 31-30 defeat to Houston in 2006. Here's how the season has gone so far:

@Western Kentucky: 22.82
@Army: 29.05
Baylor: 32.49
North Texas: 21.48
@Southern Mississippi: 31.15
Texas-San Antonio: 33.47

Here are the numbers for all Conference USA members:

Team, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation:
1. Middle Tennessee 52.05 50.48 11.59
2. Western Kentucky 51.44 52.40 6.93
3. Louisiana Tech 46.44 50.74 9.49
4. Old Dominion 45.24 45.71 10.85
5. Southern Mississippi 44.18 42.89 13.63
6. Marshall 36.69 35.56 16.82
7. Texas-San Antonio 36.30 38.24 15.83
8. Florida Atlantic 33.03 28.56 13.05
9. North Texas 31.45 33.87 10.27
10. Rice 30.10 28.41 5.09
11. Florida International 29.49 26.85 10.85
12. Charlotte 26.48 26.43 15.11
13. Texas-El Paso 20.01 19.16 17.98

The big game in C-USA was the WKU-MTSU East Division showdown, won by the Hilltoppers 44-43. The game went into overtime, with the two teams trading touchdowns in the first overtime. The Blue Raiders had the ball first in the second overtime and scored a touchdown, but WKU blocked the extra point and then proceeded to score a touchdown and successfully kick the conversion for the win. Despite the win, the Hilltoppers are only in second place in the division, trailing the Florida International Panthers with three wins in three C-USA games after edging Charlotte by a point. However, FIU has done it by playing three of C-USA's bottom feeders (FAU, UTEP, and Charlotte) and has yet to play any of the conference's better teams. Meanwhile, WKU's schedule is very favorable the rest of the way, with only Old Dominion and maybe Marshall looking like they could provide any sort of challenge. The Hilltoppers should be considered the presumptive division champion at the moment.

This week, Rice plays its third of this season's four non-conference matchups, the Homecoming game against Prairie View A&M. The Panthers are coming off a bye week and have exceeded expectations in winning four of their first six games. However, most of these games have come against weak Division I FCS teams. The only good team the Panthers have played, their system flagship Texas A&M, defeated them 67-0, and PVAMU also lost by 20 to Grambling State, a team with a Massey power rating similar to Rice's. Prairie View's median performance rating for the season so far is 13.10, and its best performance, the 21-point win over Alabama A&M, is only a 21.34, lower than any of the Owls' games this season. With those numbers, if the Owls can't beat the Panthers, then something is really wrong.

(10-18-2016 05:37 PM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  With those numbers, if the Owls can't beat the Panthers, then something is really wrong.

The fact that Rice has sunk to the point you even included this statement says something is already really wrong. A loss to PVAMU won't suddenly flip the switch to make that the case.

(10-18-2016 08:01 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  

(10-18-2016 05:37 PM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  With those numbers, if the Owls can't beat the Panthers, then something is really wrong.

The fact that Rice has sunk to the point you even included this statement says something is already really wrong. A loss to PVAMU won't suddenly flip the switch to make that the case.

True. And neither will a win against the change it the other way, but I'll bet we hear words to that effect anyway. Wagner?

sadly I suspect the PVAMU band may be the game highlight and someone earlier indicated their show will not be long so that the silly parade of giant checks can be conducted.......

(10-19-2016 08:12 AM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(10-18-2016 08:01 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  

(10-18-2016 05:37 PM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  With those numbers, if the Owls can't beat the Panthers, then something is really wrong.

The fact that Rice has sunk to the point you even included this statement says something is already really wrong. A loss to PVAMU won't suddenly flip the switch to make that the case.

True. And neither will a win against the change it the other way, but I'll bet we hear words to that effect anyway. Wagner?

I notice the PA system is really good. No question about what he is saying.

(10-19-2016 08:12 AM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

Wow!

"Feast you eyes ... on the Marching Storm! ... That's what I'm talkin' about!"

I hope they get to put on a full show at this weekend's halftime (and/or pre-game).

It reminds me of one of the five New Orleans Mardis Gras Rex Parades in which we (The MOB) marched in the late 60s/early 70s. We were placed between the fabulous bands from Southern University and St. Augustine High School. We didn't need to play at all. We enjoyed their music all the way!

Rice snapped its season-long losing streak with a win by a basketball-like 65-44 score over Prairie View A&M, earning a performance rating of 32.12. It was the most points the Owls have scored in a game since a 77-20 win over North Texas in 2008. Here's how the season has gone so far:

@Western Kentucky: 25.15
@Army: 25.27
Baylor: 33.87
North Texas: 29.17
@Southern Mississippi: 31.66
Texas-San Antonio: 33.24
Prairie View A&M: 32.12

Here are the numbers for all Conference USA members:

Team, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation:
1. Middle Tennessee 54.66 52.19 10.43
2. Western Kentucky 53.90 55.73 8.93
3. Louisiana Tech 50.48 51.84 7.42
4. Southern Mississippi 44.89 43.96 14.85
5. Old Dominion 36.85 41.63 14.15
6. Marshall 35.91 35.52 14.51
7. North Texas 34.60 39.47 11.80
8. Texas-San Antonio 34.19 36.38 16.80
9. Rice 31.66 30.07 3.63
10. Florida Atlantic 31.39 28.14 12.04
11. Florida International 30.46 28.76 9.67
12. Charlotte 29.43 29.02 14.38
13. Texas-El Paso 25.70 23.22 19.81

In the East, Florida International lost its showdown to West leader Louisiana Tech 44-24 in a game that few saw to be a preview of the C-USA championship game. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky knocked off Old Dominion 59-24 to tie FIU for the division lead and looks like the team to beat. In the West, it's looking like the Louisiana Tech - Southern Miss game will again be the one that decides the division championship.

This week the Owls take on those very same Bulldogs in Ruston. Looking at the numbers, Rice and Louisiana Tech have been two of the most consistent teams in C-USA this season. The Bulldogs have a remarkably-low standard deviation of 7.42, while the Owls have an even more remarkably-low standard deviation of 3.63, the lowest I've ever seen. Unfortunately for Rice fans, Louisiana Tech is the higher-rated team. Given the lack of evidence that the Owls will play much higher than their rating indicates, and that the Bulldogs will play much lower than their rating indicates, it appears very unlikely that Rice will win this game. With all of that, even with Rice's poor season so far, C-USA is so weak this year that the Owls have a legitimate chance of winning all of their remaining games save the season finale at Stanford.

Rice's 61-16 loss at Louisiana Tech produced the lowest performance rating of the season at 12.26, the first rating out of the mid-20s to mid-30s band for the year. It was the identical margin as in the previous game the two teams played in Ruston but with 15 fewer points scored by each team (and a performance rating by Rice over four points lower). Here's how the season has gone so far:

@Western Kentucky: 27.41
@Army: 30.02
Baylor: 34.01
North Texas: 28.82
@Southern Mississippi: 33.41
Texas-San Antonio: 36.23
Prairie View A&M: 34.20
@Louisiana Tech: 12.26

Here are the numbers for all Conference USA members:

Team, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation:
1. Western Kentucky 62.23 60.99 11.61
2. Middle Tennessee 55.28 51.47 9.75
3. Louisiana Tech 55.02 55.43 10.38
4. Southern Mississippi 46.15 45.77 13.83
5. Old Dominion 40.07 43.05 13.40
6. Texas-San Antonio 38.94 39.06 16.08
7. Marshall 37.41 35.27 13.74
8. North Texas 35.45 39.21 12.46
9. Florida International 32.12 31.72 9.74
10. Florida Atlantic 31.96 26.22 13.48
11. Charlotte 31.79 29.49 13.88
12. Rice 31.72 29.55 7.61
13. Texas-El Paso 28.78 26.39 17.71

While Louisiana Tech's win scored a 74.27, the third-highest performance rating by any C-USA team this season, it wasn't even the highest of the week. That belonged to Western Kentucky in its 52-3 rout of Florida Atlantic, which rated a 82.19, the highest in C-USA this season (FAU's 6.58 rating in that game was the third-lowest in C-USA this season). At this point, it looks like Tech and WKU are on their way to winning their respective divisions. Only Southern Miss looks capable of challenging the Bulldogs over the remainder of their schedule, and none of the Hilltoppers' remaining opponents (FIU, North Texas, and Marshall) look competitive against them. Tech, WKU, and Middle Tennessee all got their sixth victory of the season to make them bowl-eligible, and Old Dominion and USM will likely join them soon. UNT and UTSA might make it as well, which I suspect will surprise most preseason prognosticators.

This week Rice hosts FAU, and I can guarantee the Owls will win their second game overall and first C-USA game of the season. Whether it'll be the Athene or Bubo Owls is the question. This game will definitely be the Pillow Fight of the Week in Division I FBS and possibly for the entire season, given the fact that in Massey's rankings Rice is ranked #127 and FAU is ranked #128 out 128 teams. Both teams are so bad that it's hard to separate them. FAU's highest rating of the season (39.68 against Southern Illinois) is a little bit higher than Rice's best, but it also has the second- and third-worst ratings in C-USA as well (beside the aforementioned loss to WKU is the 4.96 in its 56-point loss to Kansas State). FAU has actually been competitive in several games, suffering four single-digit losses this season, but that's more a function of having played several weak C-USA teams (Rice has played the second-strongest schedule in C-USA so far, barely trailing WKU). Like the presidential election, this is a contest between two opponents that are not very good, and the winner will be the best of a bad lot. I'd have to go with Rice because it's playing at home, but then again the Cubs won the World Series, so anything can happen....

Rice crashes to 166 in Sagarin.

I expect we will be last (128) in Massey. We were 127 and got curb stomped by 128.

(11-06-2016 03:08 AM)Antarius Wrote:  Rice crashes to 166 in Sagarin.

I expect we will be last (128) in Massey. We were 127 and got curb stomped by 128.

Rice is in dead last in Massey

Bravo. Takes skill to pull this one off

(11-06-2016 08:59 AM)Antarius Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 03:08 AM)Antarius Wrote:  Rice crashes to 166 in Sagarin.

I expect we will be last (128) in Massey. We were 127 and got curb stomped by 128.

Rice is in dead last in Massey

Bravo. Takes skill to pull this one off

There you go again, Antarius, with those unreasonable expectations. How could Rice ever expect to do better than dead last.

We also have the lowest standard deviation in the league. At least we're consistent.

Warren Nolan has us at #127 thanks to a 1-9 Fresno State.

Fresno State is off next week so we can pull away from them with our game at Charlotte.

(11-06-2016 12:52 PM)MerseyOwl Wrote:  Warren Nolan has us at #127 thanks to a 1-9 Fresno State.

Fresno State is off next week so we can pull away from them with our game at Charlotte.

I admire your optimism.

That means a lot coming from a guy like me who was still tracking bowl berth possibilities while 3TD down to FAU

(11-06-2016 05:21 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 12:52 PM)MerseyOwl Wrote:  Warren Nolan has us at #127 thanks to a 1-9 Fresno State.

Fresno State is off next week so we can pull away from them with our game at Charlotte.

I admire your optimism.

That means a lot coming from a guy like me who was still tracking bowl berth possibilities while 3TD down to FAU

I didn't actually suggest which direction. I'm afraid I don't deserve your admiration.