Read on football scoop that after the Big 12 takes what might be 2 from the American that the MW is considering expansion. I would guess they want into Texas. Houston, SMU would be a big grab. And if Houston goes to the Big 12 then Tulsa would most likely be the team. I guess they could try to bring BYU back, or even take UTEP and Rice from us.

Idk, just thought that was interesting.

The economics don't really work for AAC schools. There is a 10 million dollar AAC exit fee (with a 27 month notice, the fee is higher for a shorter notice period). Then there is a 2 million dollar entry fee. Plus, anyone leaving the AAC would be walking away from a larger share of left behind exit fees and NCAA credits---all to become part of a MW that gets paid less than the AAC. The reality is that the MW exit fee far smaller than the AAC exit fee, so its far more likely schools can migrate from the MW to the AAC---schools flowing in the opposite direction is far more problematic. Frankly, the payouts are close enough that its difficult to see movement either way.

The economics would be much different for Texas based CUSA and Sunbelt schools where the exit fees are much lower and the move to the MW would result in a significant increase in revenue and exposure.

No member of the AAC will bolt for the MWC, so I expect the MWC to soon extend invitations to UTEP, UTSA, UNT, and Rice. Since Rice is likely a shoo in to replace UH in the AAC, I doubt that the Owls will be interested in the MWC. To add a fourth expansion member, the MWC will either have to entice USM or La Tech into joining their west coast based conference, or they'll offer Ark St, who will jump at the chance to leave the Sun Belt.

Ok

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I enjoy being in a conference with Rice, but I wouldn't really be too upset if CUSA shed all the Texas schools. If there's a big round of realignment again, then CUSA needs to stick to as few schools as possible to maximize the per-school revenue payouts. The Mountain West has 12 teams right now, and I couldn't see them going to 16 but if they did and took the 4 CUSA Texas schools, CUSA would be left with these programs (separate from any potential AAC realignment effects) :

UAB
FAU
FIU
LaTech
Marshall
Middle Tennessee
Charlotte
Old Dominion
Southern Miss
Western Kentucky

That's a 10-team conference within a closer geographic footprint that doesn't even take a dip in football quality (no offense, Texas schools). You could even split into North/South divisions if you wanted to still keep divisions. FAU, FIU, LaTech, Southern Miss, and UAB in the South. Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee in the North.

Agree MWC is not getting anyone from AAC. TV$ bigger in AAC, plus the Exit fees in place from old schools are bigger, add to that the new Exit fees, no that will be split, No one is going to take a big hit to go to MWC. My guess is MWC goes for 2 CUSA tex schools, likely Utep, and another.

If AAC needs a Tex school it likely would be Rice. From the East Army would be the home run add, though I doubt that happens. I wouldn't be surprised to see AAC go after 2 MWC schools, though I think the odds of that are not high either.

(09-07-2016 05:28 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  Since Rice is likely a shoo in to replace UH in the AAC

Not too sure about that, frankly.

(09-07-2016 07:56 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(09-07-2016 05:28 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  Since Rice is likely a shoo in to replace UH in the AAC

Not too sure about that, frankly.

agree, right now there is no shoo in to replace anyone, anywhere.

(09-07-2016 05:28 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  No member of the AAC will bolt for the MWC, so I expect the MWC to soon extend invitations to UTEP, UTSA, UNT, and Rice. Since Rice is likely a shoo in to replace UH in the AAC, I doubt that the Owls will be interested in the MWC. To add a fourth expansion member, the MWC will either have to entice USM or La Tech into joining their west coast based conference, or they'll offer Ark St, who will jump at the chance to leave the Sun Belt.

Why would the MW want to do that. That logic doesn't compute. We were the test rats for those schools being all together...............how has that worked out?? UTEP yes, Rice Maybe (seems like they applied to the MW not long ago maybe?) the others, no way in hell.

(09-07-2016 07:25 AM)RedParallax Wrote:  I enjoy being in a conference with Rice, but I wouldn't really be too upset if CUSA shed all the Texas schools. If there's a big round of realignment again, then CUSA needs to stick to as few schools as possible to maximize the per-school revenue payouts. The Mountain West has 12 teams right now, and I couldn't see them going to 16 but if they did and took the 4 CUSA Texas schools, CUSA would be left with these programs (separate from any potential AAC realignment effects) :

UAB
FAU
FIU
LaTech
Marshall
Middle Tennessee
Charlotte
Old Dominion
Southern Miss
Western Kentucky

That's a 10-team conference within a closer geographic footprint that doesn't even take a dip in football quality (no offense, Texas schools). You could even split into North/South divisions if you wanted to still keep divisions. FAU, FIU, LaTech, Southern Miss, and UAB in the South. Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee in the North.

I agree. I've nothing against the TX schools but if we could lose all four in one swoop it 'd be a great chance to regionalize better. More likely though I think we'll lose a couple and end up in a worse position.

(09-07-2016 08:25 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(09-07-2016 07:25 AM)RedParallax Wrote:  I enjoy being in a conference with Rice, but I wouldn't really be too upset if CUSA shed all the Texas schools. If there's a big round of realignment again, then CUSA needs to stick to as few schools as possible to maximize the per-school revenue payouts. The Mountain West has 12 teams right now, and I couldn't see them going to 16 but if they did and took the 4 CUSA Texas schools, CUSA would be left with these programs (separate from any potential AAC realignment effects) :

UAB
FAU
FIU
LaTech
Marshall
Middle Tennessee
Charlotte
Old Dominion
Southern Miss
Western Kentucky

That's a 10-team conference within a closer geographic footprint that doesn't even take a dip in football quality (no offense, Texas schools). You could even split into North/South divisions if you wanted to still keep divisions. FAU, FIU, LaTech, Southern Miss, and UAB in the South. Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee in the North.

I agree. I've nothing against the TX schools but if we could lose all four in one swoop it 'd be a great chance to regionalize better. More likely though I think we'll lose a couple and end up in a worse position.

Even if we just lose 2 Texas schools, it'll be an improvement in per-program revenue. If we only lost 2, I'd hope it included UTEP just because they're way out there on an island from the rest of the conference's standpoint. Makes ZERO sense for Marshall to play UTEP in anything ever. Lose UTEP and Rice (I think those 2 have been casually mentioned as interested in MWC) and we're only splitting the pie 12 ways. Odds are the AAC takes someone from CUSA if the Big 12 poaches AAC, also.

Not only would per program revenue increase, but our ranking in the G5 would likely go up a spot or two given recent football history of the 4 Texas schools.

Don't forget dropping some bottom feeders in basketball.

(09-07-2016 08:12 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(09-07-2016 07:56 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(09-07-2016 05:28 AM)BRtransplant Wrote:  Since Rice is likely a shoo in to replace UH in the AAC

Not too sure about that, frankly.

agree, right now there is no shoo in to replace anyone, anywhere.

anyone, anywhere, anytime.... must be talking about Southern Miss.

(09-07-2016 08:38 AM)monarchoptimist Wrote:  Don't forget dropping some bottom feeders in basketball.

Losing UTEP would be pretty big for basketball, IMO. I feel like they've underachieved, but the school puts a pretty decent emphasis on basketball and their tradition/history in that sport could lead to a strong revival in the future. Losing Rice, UTSA, and/or North Texas would all be a plus for basketball though.

If UH, Cincy and UConn leave the AAC their TV deal will be negotiated and likely drop below 1million per school. The exit fees are an issue, but may not even hold up in court. (See Maryland) I could absolutely see the MWC making a run at Tulsa and SMU. If they don't get them, then I see them going after Rice and UTEP. Maybe they try for all four.

My hope is that UH, Cincy and UConn do leave the AAC, Navy goes back to independent and CUSA, SB and AAC reshuffle the schools giving the AAC the east, SunBelt the South and CUSA the West. Thats the only way to save the G5 in the long run. Make the G5 sort of overlap the geographic areas of the P5, and be the quaint, niche, family affordable alternative to the P5. AAC=ACC, MAC=Big10, SunBelt=SEC, CUSA=Big12, MW=PAC 10 geographically.

(09-07-2016 08:41 AM)RedParallax Wrote:  

(09-07-2016 08:38 AM)monarchoptimist Wrote:  Don't forget dropping some bottom feeders in basketball.

Losing UTEP would be pretty big for basketball, IMO. I feel like they've underachieved, but the school puts a pretty decent emphasis on basketball and their tradition/history in that sport could lead to a strong revival in the future. Losing Rice, UTSA, and/or North Texas would all be a plus for basketball though.

Agreed. But Rice is on the upswing in hoops for now.

(09-07-2016 08:30 AM)RedParallax Wrote:  

(09-07-2016 08:25 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(09-07-2016 07:25 AM)RedParallax Wrote:  I enjoy being in a conference with Rice, but I wouldn't really be too upset if CUSA shed all the Texas schools. If there's a big round of realignment again, then CUSA needs to stick to as few schools as possible to maximize the per-school revenue payouts. The Mountain West has 12 teams right now, and I couldn't see them going to 16 but if they did and took the 4 CUSA Texas schools, CUSA would be left with these programs (separate from any potential AAC realignment effects) :

UAB
FAU
FIU
LaTech
Marshall
Middle Tennessee
Charlotte
Old Dominion
Southern Miss
Western Kentucky

That's a 10-team conference within a closer geographic footprint that doesn't even take a dip in football quality (no offense, Texas schools). You could even split into North/South divisions if you wanted to still keep divisions. FAU, FIU, LaTech, Southern Miss, and UAB in the South. Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee in the North.

I agree. I've nothing against the TX schools but if we could lose all four in one swoop it 'd be a great chance to regionalize better. More likely though I think we'll lose a couple and end up in a worse position.

Even if we just lose 2 Texas schools, it'll be an improvement in per-program revenue. If we only lost 2, I'd hope it included UTEP just because they're way out there on an island from the rest of the conference's standpoint. Makes ZERO sense for Marshall to play UTEP in anything ever. Lose UTEP and Rice (I think those 2 have been casually mentioned as interested in MWC) and we're only splitting the pie 12 ways. Odds are the AAC takes someone from CUSA if the Big 12 poaches AAC, also.

If the dominoes fall in such a way, this would be a solid conference

(09-07-2016 08:47 AM)monarx Wrote:  

(09-07-2016 08:41 AM)RedParallax Wrote:  

(09-07-2016 08:38 AM)monarchoptimist Wrote:  Don't forget dropping some bottom feeders in basketball.

Losing UTEP would be pretty big for basketball, IMO. I feel like they've underachieved, but the school puts a pretty decent emphasis on basketball and their tradition/history in that sport could lead to a strong revival in the future. Losing Rice, UTSA, and/or North Texas would all be a plus for basketball though.

Agreed. But Rice is on the upswing in hoops for now.

I'm sorry but 2 years of 12-20 is not what I call a upswing. It's a improvement from 5-26 and 7-23 but till a team gets to at least 18 wins they are barely a .500 team....or below. Most schools play 32 games

Appalachian State(nc)
James Madison(va)
Marshall(West Virginia)
Coastal Carolina (SC)
Georgia Southern(Ga)
Southern Miss(Miss)
La Tech(Louisiana)
UAB(ala)
Florida Atlantic(fl)
Arkansas State(Ark)
Western Kentucky(ky)
Middle Tennessee(tn)

this would be the best configuration CUSA could put together if AAC stands pat