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dangerous bit of theater unfolding
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ODU BLUE Offline
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Post: #1
dangerous bit of theater unfolding
Russia, Iran and Turkey are in position to put a deadly squeeze on the Kurds, forcing their acquiescence.

http://allenwestrepublic.com/2016/08/26/...hey-appear
08-27-2016 07:48 AM
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ODU BLUE Offline
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RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
08-27-2016 07:51 AM
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ODU BLUE Offline
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RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
What kind of war will Hillary get us into to get the spotlight off her crimes?

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08-27-2016 07:55 AM
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QuestionSocratic Offline
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Post: #4
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
Maybe it's just a coincidence, but shares of defense stocks are at all time highs. You could argue that they are just riding the market momentum. You could also argue that they have priced in a Hillary administration.
08-27-2016 08:23 AM
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Post: #5
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
The Kurds in Iraq and Kurds in Syria need to declare independence that will allow them to sell their oil and get arms.

The nations of Syria and Iraq don't exist anymore. That needs to be the justification so that Turkey is less threatened. They need to use the leverage they have now to get out of those messes, instead of waiting for the Syrians and Iraqis (if they ever do put down the rebellions) to turn their full forces on the Kurds.
08-27-2016 10:07 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #6
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
(08-27-2016 07:48 AM)ODU BLUE Wrote:  Russia, Iran and Turkey are in position to put a deadly squeeze on the Kurds, forcing their acquiescence.

http://allenwestrepublic.com/2016/08/26/...hey-appear

What do you want to do about it? Invade Syria? Declare war on Iran? The Kurds have their protected zone in Iraq. That's all we're committed to.

We've given the Kurds billions (perhaps as much as 50 billion) in aid, and a lot of that is military. They spend much of their energy bickering amongst themselves.

Iran and Russia want to help Assad. Erdogan will destroy Turkey to hurt the Kurds by 1/1000th of their power.

Quite frankly, if Russia and Iran want to get mired down in an expensive adventure in the Middle East, I say ... let them. If Erodogan wants to exacerbate tension with its Kurdish minority and with the 3 million Syrian refugees already in Turkey, I say...'we don't support that, and don't ask us for squat when it inevitably blows up in your face'. Understand that the Kurds and the Sunnis aren't going to sit down forever. Eventually it will blow up in their faces. One lesson we should have learned from our Iraq disaster was that superior militaries can 'win' a war, but can not win the peace. And Iran, Assad, and Turkey will do no better with that than we did. It will look like they won for about a hot minute. Then it will, predictably, fall apart.

And the lovey dovey relationship between Assad, Erdogan, Iran and Putin is VERY fragile. They have strong competing interests not only in Syria but elsewhere too. Assad/Russia/Iran will fall out with Turkey very quickly if the Kurds are on the back foot. Turkey and Assad want the oil from Eastern Syria and the ISIS region. Iran is doing huge damage to Putin with their increased oil sales. And then there's the Gulf states and the Saudis, who will be stoking the fires of Sunni nationalism as well. Erdogan and Putin have massive competing interests in Crimea and the Caucuses (where the two fought a proxy war a couple of months ago in Nagorno Karabach)

----

And do we really want the Kurds to expand into a massive state covering parts of Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Iran? They control areas where they aren't the majority. And there's no guarantee that they'll behave any better when they have control than any of the other groups. Have you seen how they bicker and sometimes fight amongst themselves even in the face of strong external threats? Is that even going to be more than marginally better? And at what cost?

----

Other than ejecting Turkey from NATO there's really little we should do. Other than continuing to finance and support the Kurds in Iraq. What part of 'there are no good actors in that fight' do you not understand?
(This post was last modified: 08-27-2016 10:53 AM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
08-27-2016 10:29 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #7
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
(08-27-2016 10:07 AM)bullet Wrote:  The Kurds in Iraq and Kurds in Syria need to declare independence that will allow them to sell their oil and get arms.

The nations of Syria and Iraq don't exist anymore. That needs to be the justification so that Turkey is less threatened. They need to use the leverage they have now to get out of those messes, instead of waiting for the Syrians and Iraqis (if they ever do put down the rebellions) to turn their full forces on the Kurds.

Its unlikely that either gets their act together. First, the Saudis and the Gulf states will continue to support any Sunni group they can find (including the Kurds). The Shia are a majority in Southern Iraq and will be jostling with the Sunnis in Iraq for at least another decade. They currently want the Kurds in Northern Iraq to have leverage to keep much of the Sunni oil around Mosul in chaos. Iran doesn't want the Sunnis to control Iraqi Kurdistan either. The Shia would have to control Sunni Iraq to really get to the Iraqi Kurds too.

As far as stated independence goes, I think that the only way that happens is if Iran and Shia Iraq agree to allow it. That's possible at some point, but not in the short term. Turkey can't invade Iraq without massive consequences even if the Kurds declare independence, especially if the Iraqi government lets them go.
08-27-2016 10:51 AM
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Post: #8
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
(08-27-2016 10:51 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(08-27-2016 10:07 AM)bullet Wrote:  The Kurds in Iraq and Kurds in Syria need to declare independence that will allow them to sell their oil and get arms.

The nations of Syria and Iraq don't exist anymore. That needs to be the justification so that Turkey is less threatened. They need to use the leverage they have now to get out of those messes, instead of waiting for the Syrians and Iraqis (if they ever do put down the rebellions) to turn their full forces on the Kurds.

Its unlikely that either gets their act together. First, the Saudis and the Gulf states will continue to support any Sunni group they can find (including the Kurds). The Shia are a majority in Southern Iraq and will be jostling with the Sunnis in Iraq for at least another decade. They currently want the Kurds in Northern Iraq to have leverage to keep much of the Sunni oil around Mosul in chaos. Iran doesn't want the Sunnis to control Iraqi Kurdistan either. The Shia would have to control Sunni Iraq to really get to the Iraqi Kurds too.

As far as stated independence goes, I think that the only way that happens is if Iran and Shia Iraq agree to allow it. That's possible at some point, but not in the short term. Turkey can't invade Iraq without massive consequences even if the Kurds declare independence, especially if the Iraqi government lets them go.

An independent Kurdistan gives them a stable place and control over their own resources so that they have the resources to make ISIS look south to focus their terror activities. A small stable place is better than no stable place.

The Kurds had their own little civil war and there is lots of corruption, but they didn't have the atrocities and their corruption is small time compared to Iraq and Syria and almost all the rest of the Middle East.
08-27-2016 01:29 PM
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HeartOfDixie Offline
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Post: #9
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
You should try telling the Kurds in the autonomous region that they aren't already independent.

My old passport doesn't have Iraqi stamps in it. It has Kurdish stamps in it.
(This post was last modified: 08-27-2016 01:36 PM by HeartOfDixie.)
08-27-2016 01:32 PM
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Smaug Offline
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Post: #10
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
Does anyone doubt Hillary will make any situation worse?
08-27-2016 04:45 PM
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Dasville Offline
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Post: #11
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
Perhaps we should import all that hot mess.
08-27-2016 04:59 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
We should have done an independent Kurdistan in 2003 or so, if there was any rational basis for staying in Iraq. Turkey was opposed then, too, but there was a way to get Turkey onboard. Give the Halliburton contract for Kurdistan to Schlumberger (one of the few other companies in the world that would have a shot at doing it), let the French provide the security assistance until the Kurds are up and fully running (the French are still pissed since they got cheated out of that part of the world at San Remo), and tell France it's their job to convince Turkey that agreeing to it is the price of getting into the EU (which was Turkey's #1 priority at the time). Then do a Shia Mesopotamia with US security assistance. And everything west of the Euphrates goes into Sunni Iraq (which we can leave the residue of Saddam's henchmen in place to run). Sunni Iraq quickly has the best military in the area, because they have the best military leaders (they're not Napoleon, but they're better than anything anybody else has). Very quickly, they ally with the Sunnis in eastern Syria, and you have something like ISIS, except that, because we set them up, we presumably have enough leverage to keep them from going absolute batsh*t crazy. They quickly drive Assad's Shias (Alawites) back to the mountains and coastal regions, and then you have Sunni western Iraq/eastern Syria. That means that everyone is pretty much ruled by whom they would choose to rule them. You put in UN troops if needed to enforce the borders and to help with the relocation efforts. Sunni Iraq/Syria is the one area that has a hard time standing on its feet economically, but the Saudis would underwrite that. With their borders relatively certain, the money that the Saudis currently pour in for military assistance could go to economic aid to get them on their feet.

The other thing you do to make this work for Turkey is that you repatriate the Turkish Kurds back to the new Kurdistan. That's not as hard as it may sound. People in that part of the world like to go back to be with their countrymen. Look at how many Palestinians the Brits got to move back from the diaspora once they set up the Palestine mandate (of course, that's a big part of the problem today, but that's a different story, and this would be managed differently). That probably requires that you make Kurdistan a big bigger than the territory currently occupied by Kurds, so you have room to absorb the returnees. Maybe everything from Mosul north goes to Kurdistan, and south of there everything east of the Euphrates goes to Shia Mesopotamia and everything west of the Euphrates goes to Sunni Iraq. You also make room by relocating Sunnis and Shias to their respective areas. Again, I don't think this is as hard as some might think. They like to be with their kind (sorry if that sounds racist, not intended that way, just hard to find other words to express the thought). Plus, life in Turkey is not exactly a dream existence, so it's not that hard to walk away from it. Same basically, in all respects, for Kurds in Syria.

I think it would have worked back then. I'm not sure if it can work today, but I would think it would be at least a reasonable aspirational model. The big problem is that the ISIS leaders are a lot crazier than Saddam's generals were, or maybe it's just that the craziest of Saddam's generals are the ones who have survived and risen to leadership of ISIS. I really don't know what we do about ISIS. The ideal situation would be to find a Sunni that we can trust and somehow manage to get him to the leadership of ISIS. Unfortunately, we killed the best Sunni to fill that role.
(This post was last modified: 08-27-2016 05:13 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
08-27-2016 05:05 PM
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ericsrevenge76 Away
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Post: #13
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
Well well well.

The bible also has Iran, Turkey and Russia as the key allies in the final end time war against Israel. And here they are all coming together for the first time since Israels return as a nation in 1948 after nearly 2000 years of desolation.

Of course Israel had to be a powerful nation of Jews again, and that was not the case for almost 2000 years until NOW.

It also has America, The Brits and her young lions of Canada & Australia etc. aligned with Saudi Arabia for business reasons protesting the final invasion. And here we are all tied together over Saudi oil.

We, along with the Saudis have driven down the price of oil to incredible lows trying to put the squeeze on Putin's economy.

Ezekiel chapters 38 & 39
(This post was last modified: 08-27-2016 05:34 PM by ericsrevenge76.)
08-27-2016 05:21 PM
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Hood-rich Offline
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Post: #14
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
(08-27-2016 05:21 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  Well well well.

The bible also has Iran, Turkey and Russia as the key allies in the final end time war against Israel. And here they are all coming together for the first time since Israels return as a nation in 1948 after nearly 2000 years of desolation.

Of course Israel had to be a powerful nation of Jews again, and that was not the case for almost 2000 years until NOW.

It also has America, The Brits and her young lions of Canada & Australia etc. aligned with Saudi Arabia for business reasons protesting the final invasion. And here we are all tied together over Saudi oil.

We, along with the Saudis have driven down the price of oil to incredible lows trying to put the squeeze on Putin's economy.

Ezekiel chapters 38 & 39
Any other good passages referring to these nations?

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08-27-2016 05:51 PM
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ericsrevenge76 Away
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RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
(08-27-2016 05:51 PM)Hood-rich Wrote:  Any other good passages referring to these nations?

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The passages are 2500 years old, so they go by the Genesis names, not the modern nation names. Its not very difficult to decipher them with a little research though.

[Image: ezek_invaders_map.jpg]

[Image: magog-map.jpg]



Tarshish and "the young lions of" are The British empire and the nations which rose up out of it, America, Canada, Australia, ect.

Rosh & Magog = Russia

Togarmah/Meshech = Turkey

Persia = Iran

Sheba & Dedan = Saudi Arabia

Ezekiel 38 and 39 are by far the most detailed prophecies of the set up of the battle of Armageddon

Ezekiel 38:13 shows the Saudis, America and The Brits protesting the invasion
(This post was last modified: 08-28-2016 12:26 AM by ericsrevenge76.)
08-27-2016 06:07 PM
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QuestionSocratic Offline
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Post: #16
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
(08-27-2016 06:07 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  Ezekiel 38 and 39 are by far the most detailed prophecies of the battle of Armageddon

I'll start to worry when Vegas sets odds.
08-27-2016 06:11 PM
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RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
(08-27-2016 06:07 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  
(08-27-2016 05:51 PM)Hood-rich Wrote:  Any other good passages referring to these nations?

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The passages are 2500 years old, so they go by the Genesis names, not the modern nation names. Its not very difficult to decipher them with a little research though.

[Image: ezek_invaders_map.jpg]

[Image: magog-map.jpg]

[Image: Eurasia1.jpg]



Ezekiel 38 and 39 are by far the most detailed prophecies of the battle of Armageddon
Yeah I had some good end times lessons for a Bible class in HS. That was a long time ago though. I knew that sounded familiar.

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08-27-2016 06:12 PM
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ericsrevenge76 Away
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RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
(08-27-2016 06:11 PM)QuestionSocratic Wrote:  
(08-27-2016 06:07 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  Ezekiel 38 and 39 are by far the most detailed prophecies of the battle of Armageddon

I'll start to worry when Vegas sets odds.


Gonna be too late then.

According to the bible, most of the world will scoff at all of this until the hour is too late.

But the fact is Israel is back as a nation after almost 2000 years and the nations of Ezekiel 38/39 are perfectly aligning now.
(This post was last modified: 08-27-2016 06:25 PM by ericsrevenge76.)
08-27-2016 06:23 PM
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ericsrevenge76 Away
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RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
(08-27-2016 06:12 PM)Hood-rich Wrote:  Yeah I had some good end times lessons for a Bible class in HS. That was a long time ago though. I knew that sounded familiar.

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Zechariah 14 (chapter 12 as well) and Revelation 19 gives additional detail, but Ezekiel 38-39 are the only passages that actually tell us the nations specifically involved in the invasion.
(This post was last modified: 08-28-2016 01:33 AM by ericsrevenge76.)
08-27-2016 06:24 PM
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ODU BLUE Offline
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Post: #20
RE: dangerous bit of theater unfolding
ericsrevenge76 you are on the money. Lots of other things going on as well that are clearly pointed out in Bible. I need to quit worrying about crooked Hillary and start worrying about more important things.
08-27-2016 07:24 PM
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