So, let's say the Big12 were to expand by 4---all of them AAC teams. Further more, the worst case scenario is UConn isn't selected by the Big12. Blauds claims that if UConn is not part of the Big12 expansion, UConn would join the Big East for Olympic sports and place thier football in another league or go Indy.

That means the AAC could lose as many as 5 schools. As Navy is a football only school, it is an associate member---not a full member. In this situation, the AAC would have just 6 full all spots members---2 short of the 8 school minimum to be a FBS conference and would have 2 years to return to 8 all-sports member of lose FBS status. It's also possible that this level of carnage would trigger thecancellation clause in the AAC ESPN contract.

So--what's the likely fall out in this situation. What would be the AAC's most likely move in that scenario?

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Even in this worse case scenario, you still have good programs left over, that CUSA members would like to join. So let's say for the sake of argument, that Houston, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, and UConn are gone. (Substitute Memphis in here if you like and take one out, it still works the same way).

You still have a core group of Memphis, Temple, Navy, ECU, SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane. Add Southern Miss, Marshall, and Old Dominion, and you have a very nice 10 team conference. And that is a worse case scenario. It probably won't even be that bad. This conference would still challenge for access bowls frequently with the Southern Miss and Marshall adds to go along with the left behinds.

(08-19-2016 10:32 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Even in this worse case scenario, you still have good programs left over, that CUSA members would like to join. So let's say for the sake of argument, that Houston, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, and UConn are gone. (Substitute Memphis in here if you like and take one out, it still works the same way).

You still have a core group of Memphis, Temple, Navy, ECU, SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane. Add Southern Miss, Marshall, and Old Dominion, and you have a very nice 10 team conference. And that is a worse case scenario. It probably won't even be that bad. This conference would still challenge for access bowls frequently with the Southern Miss and Marshall adds to go along with the left behinds.

Would SMU and Tulsa be flight risks (to the MWC) at that point?

Talk ESPN into keeping the exisiting contract until it wraps up in 2019-20.

Load it full of good basketaball schools that play FBS.

UMass
Buffalo
Ohio
WKU
ODU



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(08-19-2016 10:35 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-19-2016 10:32 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Even in this worse case scenario, you still have good programs left over, that CUSA members would like to join. So let's say for the sake of argument, that Houston, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, and UConn are gone. (Substitute Memphis in here if you like and take one out, it still works the same way).

You still have a core group of Memphis, Temple, Navy, ECU, SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane. Add Southern Miss, Marshall, and Old Dominion, and you have a very nice 10 team conference. And that is a worse case scenario. It probably won't even be that bad. This conference would still challenge for access bowls frequently with the Southern Miss and Marshall adds to go along with the left behinds.

Would SMU and Tulsa be flight risks (to the MWC) at that point?

Wondered the same thing.

Cincy / Houston - Big 12
UConn - Big East
Navy - Independent
Tulsa / SMU - MWC

UCF, USF, ECU, Tulane, Temple remaining in the AAC.

To me that seems like the worst case scenario for the AAC.

(08-19-2016 10:38 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Talk ESPN into keeping the exisiting contract until it wraps up in 2019-20.

Load it full of good basketaball schools that play FBS.

UMass
Buffalo
Ohio
WKU
ODU



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can they buy the Big East name back

They would basically take the top programs from the next tier, MAC and CUSA, starting a chain reaction. In the end, you might see the SBC dissolve.

Under this insane scenario you might very well see the reemergence of eastern independents. If you had UCONN, Army, and Navy independent in the east then if you are the leftovers which makes more sense forming something that looks very much like current C-USA and gets paid as such or just all be indy and have a scheduling alliance? Temple would likely be better off indy football and in the A10 in all other sports. ECU same thing but likely in the CAA all other sports.

Under your hypothesis, with the AAC losing four schools and one of them is not UConn, I would guess that the schools leaving would be: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis and either UCF/USF. UConn, not being selected, decides to move football in another conference (either the MAC, C-USA or as an independent). That would leave the following schools: Temple, East Carolina, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy (football-only), and one of UCF/USF. Navy would most likely only stay around if Rice is a school that is selected to replace Houston, as it guarantees them a game in Texas every year (rotating travel games with SMU/Rice).

The footprint is predominantly Southern, with an outlier in both Navy and Temple. I would raid Conference USA and add Rice (to replace Houston), Southern Mississippi (to replace Memphis), Western Kentucky (as a replacement for Cincinnati) and UAB (as a replacement for either UCF/USF). That would get you back up to 10, but I would also add UMass (for another Northeastern market to replace UConn and help Temple) and add Old Dominion (another potential eastern member) to get to 12.

With these moves, you solidify your conference footprint and get athletic programs that have shown that they can compete with the higher levels of the G5. I think going West for Colorado State/BYU/Boise/San Diego State is a pipe dream. No addition is a game changer, but the American should focus on solidifying itself for the long-haul - not looking at adding pieces that will be poached later. By constantly making additions that only have the intention of leaving, you leave your conference vulnerable over the long haul. Just my two cents.

(08-19-2016 10:35 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-19-2016 10:32 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Even in this worse case scenario, you still have good programs left over, that CUSA members would like to join. So let's say for the sake of argument, that Houston, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, and UConn are gone. (Substitute Memphis in here if you like and take one out, it still works the same way).

You still have a core group of Memphis, Temple, Navy, ECU, SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane. Add Southern Miss, Marshall, and Old Dominion, and you have a very nice 10 team conference. And that is a worse case scenario. It probably won't even be that bad. This conference would still challenge for access bowls frequently with the Southern Miss and Marshall adds to go along with the left behinds.

Would SMU and Tulsa be flight risks (to the MWC) at that point?

If the Big 12 takes four to maximize the population in their new footprint, they could take Houston (for political reasons) Cincy, UCF (or USF) and ECU. In such an event, would the remaining schools care if they also lost Tulsa and SMU? If they did, they could add basketball programs like UMass, Old Dominion and VCU for a decent eastern league of 8 members for all sports. Or, they could invite Army to join Navy as a football only affiliate giving them 9 schools for a balanced 8 game league schedule.

There you could have a multi-bid hoops league with only 8 mouths to feed, and probably a football media deal no worse than what you have now.

(08-19-2016 10:39 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  

(08-19-2016 10:35 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-19-2016 10:32 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Even in this worse case scenario, you still have good programs left over, that CUSA members would like to join. So let's say for the sake of argument, that Houston, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, and UConn are gone. (Substitute Memphis in here if you like and take one out, it still works the same way).

You still have a core group of Memphis, Temple, Navy, ECU, SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane. Add Southern Miss, Marshall, and Old Dominion, and you have a very nice 10 team conference. And that is a worse case scenario. It probably won't even be that bad. This conference would still challenge for access bowls frequently with the Southern Miss and Marshall adds to go along with the left behinds.

Would SMU and Tulsa be flight risks (to the MWC) at that point?

Wondered the same thing.

Cincy / Houston - Big 12
UConn - Big East
Navy - Independent
Tulsa / SMU - MWC

UCF, USF, ECU, Tulane, Temple remaining in the AAC.

To me that seems like the worst case scenario for the AAC.

Unfortunately, Tulsa and SMU wouldn't bring in increase revenue for the MW contract. Just as UTEP and Rice were talked about and the TV contract not increasing with those adds.

What probably would happen is the AAC taking the CUSA East Division and SMU and Tula joining the CUSA West division.
Each is still a conference on to themselves and each retains the NCAA bids just as before. It's just a major reorganization of sorts.

Also, the AAC in that scenario would be desperate, so most likely UConn would be able to get their way (possibly Temple pulls the same thing too) in a compromise and move their basketball to the BE and keep other sports in the AAC, unless the AAC is stupid enough to let them fully withdraw, because that would probably also lead to Navy dropping out as well.

AAC loses to B12: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF
AAC loses: UConn basketball

That leaves in football: Temple, UConn, SMU, USF, Tulsa, Tulane, Navy, ECU
In basketball: Temple, SMU, USF, Tulsa, Tulane, ECU

AAC adds: Rice, Northern Illinois, UMass, ODU
- Rice replaces the lost Houston media market/recruiting ground and also a regional travel partner for Tulane, SMU and Tulsa, and keeps Navy happy as well.
- Northern Illinois is far and away the best lower tier G5 program out there and gets the AAC back into the midwest after losing Cincinnati and is within the Chicago DMA.
- UMass keeps UConn and Temple happy to have a travel partner for olympic sports as part of the compromise for them to stay in the conference in all sports other than basketball.
- ODU adds a fertile recruiting ground and additionally adds a regional travel partner for UConn, UMass, Temple and ECU without being too far away from USF.

AAC
East: UMass, UConn (non-basketball), Temple (non-basketball), ODU, ECU, USF
West: Navy, SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Tulane, NIU

UMass isn't exactly "close" to Temple. It's like 6 hours from Philly to Amherst. I realize that is not incredibly far away, but as it is 6 hours away from everyone else, that might not make sense, if the purpose is purely geographical.

(08-19-2016 11:13 AM)adcorbett Wrote:  UMass isn't exactly "close" to Temple. It's like 6 hours from Philly to Amherst. I realize that is not incredibly far away, but as it is 6 hours away from everyone else, that might not make sense, if the purpose is purely geographical.

B12 is not taking 4 AAC schools.Just Houston and Cinn.

UConn can go to the BE for other sports,but will kill its football program.

Forming a new football league in the Northeast(UMASS,UCONN,TEMPLE ,OLD Dominion,ECAROLINA and NAVY is well short of 10 members) Could they get MAC members like Buffalo yes,but this is hardly a top G5 league.

(08-19-2016 11:11 AM)AntiG Wrote:  Also, the AAC in that scenario would be desperate, so most likely UConn would be able to get their way (possibly Temple pulls the same thing too) in a compromise and move their basketball to the BE and keep other sports in the AAC, unless the AAC is stupid enough to let them fully withdraw, because that would probably also lead to Navy dropping out as well.

AAC loses to B12: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF
AAC loses: UConn basketball

That leaves in football: Temple, UConn, SMU, USF, Tulsa, Tulane, Navy, ECU
In basketball: Temple, SMU, USF, Tulsa, Tulane, ECU

AAC adds: Rice, Northern Illinois, UMass, ODU
- Rice replaces the lost Houston media market/recruiting ground and also a regional travel partner for Tulane, SMU and Tulsa, and keeps Navy happy as well.
- Northern Illinois is far and away the best lower tier G5 program out there and gets the AAC back into the midwest after losing Cincinnati and is within the Chicago DMA.
- UMass keeps UConn and Temple happy to have a travel partner for olympic sports as part of the compromise for them to stay in the conference in all sports other than basketball.
- ODU adds a fertile recruiting ground and additionally adds a regional travel partner for UConn, UMass, Temple and ECU without being too far away from USF.

AAC
East: UMass, UConn (non-basketball), Temple (non-basketball), ODU, ECU, USF
West: Navy, SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Tulane, NIU

This guy knows what's up

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(08-19-2016 11:39 AM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(08-19-2016 11:11 AM)AntiG Wrote:  Also, the AAC in that scenario would be desperate, so most likely UConn would be able to get their way (possibly Temple pulls the same thing too) in a compromise and move their basketball to the BE and keep other sports in the AAC, unless the AAC is stupid enough to let them fully withdraw, because that would probably also lead to Navy dropping out as well.

AAC loses to B12: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF
AAC loses: UConn basketball

That leaves in football: Temple, UConn, SMU, USF, Tulsa, Tulane, Navy, ECU
In basketball: Temple, SMU, USF, Tulsa, Tulane, ECU

AAC adds: Rice, Northern Illinois, UMass, ODU
- Rice replaces the lost Houston media market/recruiting ground and also a regional travel partner for Tulane, SMU and Tulsa, and keeps Navy happy as well.
- Northern Illinois is far and away the best lower tier G5 program out there and gets the AAC back into the midwest after losing Cincinnati and is within the Chicago DMA.
- UMass keeps UConn and Temple happy to have a travel partner for olympic sports as part of the compromise for them to stay in the conference in all sports other than basketball.
- ODU adds a fertile recruiting ground and additionally adds a regional travel partner for UConn, UMass, Temple and ECU without being too far away from USF.

AAC
East: UMass, UConn (non-basketball), Temple (non-basketball), ODU, ECU, USF
West: Navy, SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Tulane, NIU

This guy knows what's up

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LOL

(08-19-2016 11:52 AM)panama Wrote:  

(08-19-2016 11:39 AM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(08-19-2016 11:11 AM)AntiG Wrote:  Also, the AAC in that scenario would be desperate, so most likely UConn would be able to get their way (possibly Temple pulls the same thing too) in a compromise and move their basketball to the BE and keep other sports in the AAC, unless the AAC is stupid enough to let them fully withdraw, because that would probably also lead to Navy dropping out as well.

AAC loses to B12: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF
AAC loses: UConn basketball

That leaves in football: Temple, UConn, SMU, USF, Tulsa, Tulane, Navy, ECU
In basketball: Temple, SMU, USF, Tulsa, Tulane, ECU

AAC adds: Rice, Northern Illinois, UMass, ODU
- Rice replaces the lost Houston media market/recruiting ground and also a regional travel partner for Tulane, SMU and Tulsa, and keeps Navy happy as well.
- Northern Illinois is far and away the best lower tier G5 program out there and gets the AAC back into the midwest after losing Cincinnati and is within the Chicago DMA.
- UMass keeps UConn and Temple happy to have a travel partner for olympic sports as part of the compromise for them to stay in the conference in all sports other than basketball.
- ODU adds a fertile recruiting ground and additionally adds a regional travel partner for UConn, UMass, Temple and ECU without being too far away from USF.

AAC
East: UMass, UConn (non-basketball), Temple (non-basketball), ODU, ECU, USF
West: Navy, SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Tulane, NIU

This guy knows what's up

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LOL

GOTTA TAKE WHAT I CAN GET BUD!

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We loose 4

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(08-19-2016 11:11 AM)AntiG Wrote:  Also, the AAC in that scenario would be desperate, so most likely UConn would be able to get their way (possibly Temple pulls the same thing too) in a compromise and move their basketball to the BE and keep other sports in the AAC, unless the AAC is stupid enough to let them fully withdraw, because that would probably also lead to Navy dropping out as well.

AAC loses to B12: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF
AAC loses: UConn basketball

That leaves in football: Temple, UConn, SMU, USF, Tulsa, Tulane, Navy, ECU
In basketball: Temple, SMU, USF, Tulsa, Tulane, ECU

AAC adds: Rice, Northern Illinois, UMass, ODU
- Rice replaces the lost Houston media market/recruiting ground and also a regional travel partner for Tulane, SMU and Tulsa, and keeps Navy happy as well.
- Northern Illinois is far and away the best lower tier G5 program out there and gets the AAC back into the midwest after losing Cincinnati and is within the Chicago DMA.
- UMass keeps UConn and Temple happy to have a travel partner for olympic sports as part of the compromise for them to stay in the conference in all sports other than basketball.
- ODU adds a fertile recruiting ground and additionally adds a regional travel partner for UConn, UMass, Temple and ECU without being too far away from USF.

AAC
East: UMass, UConn (non-basketball), Temple (non-basketball), ODU, ECU, USF
West: Navy, SMU, Rice, Tulsa, Tulane, NIU

Did you mean to have Navy as non bball instead of Temple? I would not allow UConn in football only. Bring Ohio or Toledo in place of them.