Helmut Norpoth political science professor at Stony Brook University

Quote:My model shows Donald Trump has an 87 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton. My advice: Beware of pollsters bearing forecasts, especially anyone trying to peek into the future, especially those with money to bet.

This guy is NEVER wrong.

http://www.newsday.com/opinion/my-model-...1.12102905

According to Max, this is garbage


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Who are the cucks in the other 13%?

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Of course he gives zero information about what type of model he's using and what information goes into it. Any dope can claim to have a model that's worked on elections in the past.

(08-16-2016 07:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Of course he gives zero information about what type of model he's using and what information goes into it. Any dope can claim to have a model that's worked on elections in the past.

It's the best model that always wins. This I can tell you.

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I remember them rolling him in out in 2004, 2008 and 2012. Hard name to forget.

(08-16-2016 07:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Of course he gives zero information about what type of model he's using and what information goes into it. Any dope can claim to have a model that's worked on elections in the past.

here is a breakdown of how he got it at his website

http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-full/

(08-16-2016 07:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Of course he gives zero information about what type of model he's using and what information goes into it. Any dope can claim to have a model that's worked on elections in the past.

It is based on the first couple of primaries and the presidential election cycles. It is one model to consider. Interestingly nothing that happens after those first two primaries is taken into consideration. That 87 percent chance was determined back in the winter. The Silver models indicate something very different. Right now the polls plus model has it 76.4 for Clinton to win, the polls only has it 86.9 and the now-cast 87.5. Dueling models if you will. But heck, who is right can't be determined since either way there is a chance that the other candidate can win.

I can almost feel Max triggering...

(08-16-2016 07:52 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  It is based on the first couple of primaries and the presidential election cycles. It is one model to consider. Interestingly nothing that happens after those first two primaries is taken into consideration. That 87 percent chance was determined back in the winter. The Silver models indicate something very different. Right now the polls plus model has it 76.4 for Clinton to win, the polls only has it 86.9 and the now-cast 87.5. Dueling models if you will. But heck, who is right can't be determined since either way there is a chance that the other candidate can win.

Actually his started out at 57%. Tonight on Lou Dobbs he said it's up to 87%.

Well someone is going to be very wrong come November.

(08-16-2016 08:07 PM)ODU BLUE Wrote:  

(08-16-2016 07:52 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  It is based on the first couple of primaries and the presidential election cycles. It is one model to consider. Interestingly nothing that happens after those first two primaries is taken into consideration. That 87 percent chance was determined back in the winter. The Silver models indicate something very different. Right now the polls plus model has it 76.4 for Clinton to win, the polls only has it 86.9 and the now-cast 87.5. Dueling models if you will. But heck, who is right can't be determined since either way there is a chance that the other candidate can win.

Actually his started out at 57%. Tonight on Lou Dobbs he said it's up to 87%.

From March 7th.
"With Donald Trump as the nominee, Republicans are highly certain to win the presidential election on November 8, 2016. Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/helmut-nor...03762.html

(08-16-2016 08:14 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Well someone is going to be very wrong come November.

Only if they say, "with 100% certainty".

(08-16-2016 08:19 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(08-16-2016 08:14 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Well someone is going to be very wrong come November.

Only if they say, "with 100% certainty".

Silvers model is 87% Clinton and this model is 87% trump. Can't get much more certain than that in real world statistics

(08-16-2016 08:17 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(08-16-2016 08:07 PM)ODU BLUE Wrote:  

(08-16-2016 07:52 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  It is based on the first couple of primaries and the presidential election cycles. It is one model to consider. Interestingly nothing that happens after those first two primaries is taken into consideration. That 87 percent chance was determined back in the winter. The Silver models indicate something very different. Right now the polls plus model has it 76.4 for Clinton to win, the polls only has it 86.9 and the now-cast 87.5. Dueling models if you will. But heck, who is right can't be determined since either way there is a chance that the other candidate can win.

Actually his started out at 57%. Tonight on Lou Dobbs he said it's up to 87%.

From March 7th.
"With Donald Trump as the nominee, Republicans are highly certain to win the presidential election on November 8, 2016. Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/helmut-nor...03762.html

Have we ever even seen his "model?"

(08-16-2016 10:13 PM)Ole Blue Wrote:  

(08-16-2016 08:17 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(08-16-2016 08:07 PM)ODU BLUE Wrote:  

(08-16-2016 07:52 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  It is based on the first couple of primaries and the presidential election cycles. It is one model to consider. Interestingly nothing that happens after those first two primaries is taken into consideration. That 87 percent chance was determined back in the winter. The Silver models indicate something very different. Right now the polls plus model has it 76.4 for Clinton to win, the polls only has it 86.9 and the now-cast 87.5. Dueling models if you will. But heck, who is right can't be determined since either way there is a chance that the other candidate can win.

Actually his started out at 57%. Tonight on Lou Dobbs he said it's up to 87%.

From March 7th.
"With Donald Trump as the nominee, Republicans are highly certain to win the presidential election on November 8, 2016. Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/helmut-nor...03762.html

Have we ever even seen his "model?"

see page 1

.. In beach volleyball.