http://www.theamericanconservative.com/l...-in-yemen/

Anyone educated on this topic and care to help me learn?

Why am I not surprised that the author considers the enter Yemen conflict/war, etc the fault of the US?

Basically, its a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Al Qaida using the chaos to carve out a zone of influence as well. ISIS also has control of one town.

The Houthis hold control over much of the country. They overthrew the old KSA supported government. The Houthis are supported by Iran. The population is split between the Shia and Sunni. Basically, the old North Yemen is more Houthi (Shia) and South Yemen (Aden) is more Sunni.

The culture is tribal so it kind of has an Afghanistan type patchwork of allegiances.

The US largely stays out of the Sunni vs Shia fighting and to the extent that it is involved, concentrates on attacking al-Qaida/ISIL held areas and affiliated tribes. In theory the US is opposed to the Houthis (but our opposition is largely minimal). As is just about every foreign group save Iran.

This is the third major civil war in Yemen in the last 20 years.

The Saudis are bogged down there and are spending tons of money to try and fight the Houthis. I think the US response is to say "meh, lets just let the Saudis and the Iranians have at it. We ain't solving that problem. And neither are they.

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The Houthis could win the civil war, but they cannot win the peace. Shia are only about 30 percent of the population. Best case scenario for them is another split of Yemen into North and South.
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Yemen, even when its' 'stable' is a terribly frightening place. One of my former coworkers on a project went there for a couple of months for work. My jaw dropped...I'm like 'are you nuts?'. And I'm not scared to go to many places that are considered a bit dicey.

Basically on its' best day, Yemen is slightly better than Mogadishu. Today, its every bit as bad. Its scary, its dangerous, and there's no one to help you. Right now, its an epic sh*tshow.

(08-16-2016 02:08 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Basically, its a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Al Qaida using the chaos to carve out a zone of influence as well. ISIS also has control of one town.

The Houthis hold control over much of the country. They overthrew the old KSA supported government. The Houthis are supported by Iran. The population is split between the Shia and Sunni. Basically, the old North Yemen is more Houthi (Shia) and South Yemen (Aden) is more Sunni.

The culture is tribal so it kind of has an Afghanistan type patchwork of allegiances.

The US largely stays out of the Sunni vs Shia fighting and to the extent that it is involves, concentrates on attacking al-Qaida/ISIL held areas and affiliated tribes. In theory the US is opposed to the Houthis. As is just about every foreign group save Iran.

This is the third major civil war in Yemen in the last 20 years.

The Saudis are bogged down there and are spending tons of money to try and fight the Houthis. I think the US response is to say "meh, lets just let the Saudis and the Iranians have at it.

---

The Houthis could win the civil war, but they cannot win the peace. Shia are only about 30 percent of the population. Best case scenario for them is another split of Yemen into North and South.
---
Yemen, even when its' 'stable' is a terribly frightening place. One of my former coworkers on a project went there for a couple of months for work. My jaw dropped...I'm like 'are you nuts?'. And I'm not scared to go to many places that are considered a bit dicey.

Basically on its' best day, Yemen is slightly better than Mogadishu. Today, its every bit as bad. Its scary, its dangerous, and there's no one to help you.

Pretty accurate analysis, from everything I've seen or heard.

So are we doing air strikes, or supporting one side with weapons? Why is this article so negative about the US if the US is staying out of it?

This is why America is deeply unpopular in the Muslim/Arab world.

To put it simply, our folks are gone and we don't like it so we are happy to destroy, or help to destroy, the country.

The last thing in the world the United States is interested in is other people choosing things in their country that we don't like.

(08-16-2016 02:15 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So are we doing air strikes, or supporting one side with weapons? Why is this article so negative about the US if the US is staying out of it?

If anything the second and because Saudi hates Iran.

(08-16-2016 02:15 PM)solohawks Wrote:  So are we doing air strikes, or supporting one side with weapons? Why is this article so negative about the US if the US is staying out of it?

The story has it wrong. The US does, nominally, support the Saudis in the conflict. But even the Houthis know that we really aren't doing squat to support the Saudis. The Saudis do use weapons that we sold them to pursue their goals in Yemen. Basically, we're pretending to be the ally of the Saudis, much like the Turks pretend to be an ally of the US. And everyone, including the tribal leaders knows it.

Where we are NOT staying out of it is on the extreme eastern third of Yemen where there are areas controlled by ISIL/al-Qaida. But our direct involvement is quite minimal. Basically, we help whoever is fighting ISIL-AQAP and respond to any attempt to disrupt traffic in the Red Sea.

I'm familiar with the website you posted. You'd have to ask them what their specific beef is. But I'm familiar with them. They're very very very anti-Obama. I'm surprised they're taking Iran's side in this conflict though.

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Quite frankly, I think its a good thing for the US to tell the Iranians and the Saudis....on any given proxy fight, we could stay out of it, we could help you or we could hurt you..Both of them suck equally bad, so why help either side all the time. Let them compete for the desired US response in any given arena.

Much better than the old policy of just helping the Saudis and holding them to no consequences.

Sometimes bad actors will win in these marginal countries. Sometimes there aren't any non-bad actors. I'm okay with the US strategy there. Even if there's some chance that an actor that is 5% worse than the bad actor we nominally support wins. Besides, the people with the real skin in that game are the Europeans and Japanese, who need the Red Sea routes far more than we do.

(08-16-2016 02:13 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(08-16-2016 02:08 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Basically, its a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Al Qaida using the chaos to carve out a zone of influence as well. ISIS also has control of one town.

The Houthis hold control over much of the country. They overthrew the old KSA supported government. The Houthis are supported by Iran. The population is split between the Shia and Sunni. Basically, the old North Yemen is more Houthi (Shia) and South Yemen (Aden) is more Sunni.

The culture is tribal so it kind of has an Afghanistan type patchwork of allegiances.

The US largely stays out of the Sunni vs Shia fighting and to the extent that it is involves, concentrates on attacking al-Qaida/ISIL held areas and affiliated tribes. In theory the US is opposed to the Houthis. As is just about every foreign group save Iran.

This is the third major civil war in Yemen in the last 20 years.

The Saudis are bogged down there and are spending tons of money to try and fight the Houthis. I think the US response is to say "meh, lets just let the Saudis and the Iranians have at it.

---

The Houthis could win the civil war, but they cannot win the peace. Shia are only about 30 percent of the population. Best case scenario for them is another split of Yemen into North and South.
---
Yemen, even when its' 'stable' is a terribly frightening place. One of my former coworkers on a project went there for a couple of months for work. My jaw dropped...I'm like 'are you nuts?'. And I'm not scared to go to many places that are considered a bit dicey.

Basically on its' best day, Yemen is slightly better than Mogadishu. Today, its every bit as bad. Its scary, its dangerous, and there's no one to help you.

Pretty accurate analysis, from everything I've seen or heard.

I think it's hyperbole to say that this is the US's war. The role of the US is failing to strenuously object to Saudi's abuses.

The one thing I'll really add is that parts of Yemen are essentially the same population and culture as regions of Saudi Arabia that have been in low level conflict with the Saudi ruling family for years. It's remarkable that the Saudi military is motivated to do something on its own, and the reason has more to do with suppressing its own people than it does with concern about its neighbors.

(08-17-2016 03:00 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(08-16-2016 02:13 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(08-16-2016 02:08 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Basically, its a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Al Qaida using the chaos to carve out a zone of influence as well. ISIS also has control of one town.

The Houthis hold control over much of the country. They overthrew the old KSA supported government. The Houthis are supported by Iran. The population is split between the Shia and Sunni. Basically, the old North Yemen is more Houthi (Shia) and South Yemen (Aden) is more Sunni.

The culture is tribal so it kind of has an Afghanistan type patchwork of allegiances.

The US largely stays out of the Sunni vs Shia fighting and to the extent that it is involves, concentrates on attacking al-Qaida/ISIL held areas and affiliated tribes. In theory the US is opposed to the Houthis. As is just about every foreign group save Iran.

This is the third major civil war in Yemen in the last 20 years.

The Saudis are bogged down there and are spending tons of money to try and fight the Houthis. I think the US response is to say "meh, lets just let the Saudis and the Iranians have at it.

---

The Houthis could win the civil war, but they cannot win the peace. Shia are only about 30 percent of the population. Best case scenario for them is another split of Yemen into North and South.
---
Yemen, even when its' 'stable' is a terribly frightening place. One of my former coworkers on a project went there for a couple of months for work. My jaw dropped...I'm like 'are you nuts?'. And I'm not scared to go to many places that are considered a bit dicey.

Basically on its' best day, Yemen is slightly better than Mogadishu. Today, its every bit as bad. Its scary, its dangerous, and there's no one to help you.

Pretty accurate analysis, from everything I've seen or heard.

I think it's hyperbole to say that this is the US's war. The role of the US is failing to strenuously object to Saudi's abuses.

The one thing I'll really add is that parts of Yemen are essentially the same population and culture as regions of Saudi Arabia that have been in low level conflict with the Saudi ruling family for years. It's remarkable that the Saudi military is motivated to do something on its own, and the reason has more to do with suppressing its own people than it does with concern about its neighbors.

Good point. One thing that many people fail to understand about the Kingdom is that there are large areas of the Kingdom that are restive. Asif in the SW is one of them.

I think any benefit the U.S. has in the Middle East is small at best and more likely it's a detriment. What's the purpose for these "alliances"? To limit Russian influence? Or China's? There's no benefit to the U.S. anymore - not since we've found enough oil and gas to bridge us into a nuclear power future moving forward.

(08-16-2016 02:13 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(08-16-2016 02:08 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Basically, its a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with Al Qaida using the chaos to carve out a zone of influence as well. ISIS also has control of one town.

The Houthis hold control over much of the country. They overthrew the old KSA supported government. The Houthis are supported by Iran. The population is split between the Shia and Sunni. Basically, the old North Yemen is more Houthi (Shia) and South Yemen (Aden) is more Sunni.

The culture is tribal so it kind of has an Afghanistan type patchwork of allegiances.

The US largely stays out of the Sunni vs Shia fighting and to the extent that it is involves, concentrates on attacking al-Qaida/ISIL held areas and affiliated tribes. In theory the US is opposed to the Houthis. As is just about every foreign group save Iran.

This is the third major civil war in Yemen in the last 20 years.

The Saudis are bogged down there and are spending tons of money to try and fight the Houthis. I think the US response is to say "meh, lets just let the Saudis and the Iranians have at it.

---

The Houthis could win the civil war, but they cannot win the peace. Shia are only about 30 percent of the population. Best case scenario for them is another split of Yemen into North and South.
---
Yemen, even when its' 'stable' is a terribly frightening place. One of my former coworkers on a project went there for a couple of months for work. My jaw dropped...I'm like 'are you nuts?'. And I'm not scared to go to many places that are considered a bit dicey.

Basically on its' best day, Yemen is slightly better than Mogadishu. Today, its every bit as bad. Its scary, its dangerous, and there's no one to help you.

Pretty accurate analysis, from everything I've seen or heard.

Yep. Agreed. Pretty good and accurate run down there Tom.