(08-13-2016 04:19 PM)Johnny Incognito Wrote:  I always thought Houston and Cincy to be the best choices. Still do.

+1

I don't think the big 12 will be stable regardless of who they add but the best choices by far are Cincy and Houston. I believe in the end they appease the TV partners and go with those 2. However I'd like to see Cincy, UCONN, and USF survive this mess in the end. Selfishly i'm pulling for those 3 teams.

(08-14-2016 01:38 PM)C00G Wrote:  1.) Conservative - Houston and Cincinnati.

2.) Less conservative - Houston, Cincinnati, Temple, and UConn.

3.) Let's make things interesting - Houston, Cincinnati, Temple, UConn, UCF, and USF.

If the pro rata clause will let them go to 16, why not give it a shot? Divisions would be Big XII West and Big East (TCU, WVU, and the 6 added). If there are defections in 2024, you have the flexibility to reload the West from MW/BYU or slide TCU and Houston to the West and reload from the AAC.

It's simply not the time to go beyond 12, especially with those programs. The competitive balance would be monstrously skewed if you added those 6. Yes on any given Saturday a UCF could best a one loss Baylor in a big bowl, but year in and out, it's going to be an 8-4 or 9-3 club coming out of there.

With UH and UC, it's reasonable. You can separate OU and UT, or you can add TCU and Baylor to the east to balance out the football. Otherwise nobody is going to follow that east division let alone take it seriously. UConn and Temple football can't take you to the promise land. Those schools need more time.

If 2 - Cincy, Houston

If 4 - Cincy, Houston, UConn, and UCF.

(08-14-2016 02:12 PM)Kronke Wrote:  If 2 - Cincy, Houston

If 4 - Cincy, Houston, UConn, and UCF.

I'd swap Memphis for either UCONN or UCF. I think Memphis is in if they go 4, and the last spot is up for grabs between UCONN, UCF, and BYU. I'd lean towards UCF though

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(08-14-2016 02:03 PM)kardphan Wrote:  I don't think the big 12 will be stable regardless of who they add but the best choices by far are Cincy and Houston. I believe in the end they appease the TV partners and go with those 2. However I'd like to see Cincy, UCONN, and USF survive this mess in the end. Selfishly i'm pulling for those 3 teams.

Yeah the Big 12 would be stable if the ACC did the conference a solid and invite the Texas Longhorns. What is frustrating about the Big 12 is the notion that it is OU, Texas and the 8 dwarfs. The Big 12 is more than just those two teams and it is a damn good league. WTF they can't get out of each other's way is befuddling to me.

(08-14-2016 02:06 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-14-2016 01:38 PM)C00G Wrote:  1.) Conservative - Houston and Cincinnati.

2.) Less conservative - Houston, Cincinnati, Temple, and UConn.

3.) Let's make things interesting - Houston, Cincinnati, Temple, UConn, UCF, and USF.

If the pro rata clause will let them go to 16, why not give it a shot? Divisions would be Big XII West and Big East (TCU, WVU, and the 6 added). If there are defections in 2024, you have the flexibility to reload the West from MW/BYU or slide TCU and Houston to the West and reload from the AAC.

It's simply not the time to go beyond 12, especially with those programs. The competitive balance would be monstrously skewed if you added those 6. Yes on any given Saturday a UCF could best a one loss Baylor in a big bowl, but year in and out, it's going to be an 8-4 or 9-3 club coming out of there.

With UH and UC, it's reasonable. You can separate OU and UT, or you can add TCU and Baylor to the east to balance out the football. Otherwise nobody is going to follow that east division let alone take it seriously. UConn and Temple football can't take you to the promise land. Those schools need more time.

I agree from a big 12's perspective you make the safe choices. There are no home run adds(except BYU) but you get a few that do bring something to the table. Right now you have the best football program at the time in Houston on the table and Cincy who's had the most stability by far of any of the teams left football wise. You are spitting in the wind with any other team not named BYU or UCONN. At least you know what you get with UCONN and BYU. You get 2 name brands that bring something to the table. To me if you go 14 you need some brands in there. While I love the potential of UCF they could just as quickly spiral down hill like they did last season. Thats the problem when you forced to take teams off potential. You get the ceiling and you get the bottom. This is why Cincy and Houston are safe plays. Houston has proven they can bring in quality coaches to keep that program moving and Cincinnati has been the staple of stability amongst g5 schools and I don't even consider cincy a g5 school. USF is basically in the same boat as UCF you get the extreme of the good and the bad. However I would just go with the safe bets. UCONN and BYU are strong names but I can only see them in at 14.

No doubt those will be the picks, but I'm still iffy on BYU all sports. Just stretching yourself too thin in that event. I think BYU/Boise is the better play for television, but it's just excess fat that won't be better in the long run. UConn creates another island.

My picks would be UC and UConn. Houston is just too safe for my blood, but you don't want to overthink it. Right now, you just want to stabilize the conference until the next round of negotiations. UH is a slam dunk in that regard.

I like Rice and Buffalo/ODU as replacements. Throw Army back in the fold as well for 14.

(08-14-2016 02:19 PM)kardphan Wrote:  

(08-14-2016 02:06 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(08-14-2016 01:38 PM)C00G Wrote:  1.) Conservative - Houston and Cincinnati.

2.) Less conservative - Houston, Cincinnati, Temple, and UConn.

3.) Let's make things interesting - Houston, Cincinnati, Temple, UConn, UCF, and USF.

If the pro rata clause will let them go to 16, why not give it a shot? Divisions would be Big XII West and Big East (TCU, WVU, and the 6 added). If there are defections in 2024, you have the flexibility to reload the West from MW/BYU or slide TCU and Houston to the West and reload from the AAC.

It's simply not the time to go beyond 12, especially with those programs. The competitive balance would be monstrously skewed if you added those 6. Yes on any given Saturday a UCF could best a one loss Baylor in a big bowl, but year in and out, it's going to be an 8-4 or 9-3 club coming out of there.

With UH and UC, it's reasonable. You can separate OU and UT, or you can add TCU and Baylor to the east to balance out the football. Otherwise nobody is going to follow that east division let alone take it seriously. UConn and Temple football can't take you to the promise land. Those schools need more time.

I agree from a big 12's perspective you make the safe choices. There are no home run adds(except BYU) but you get a few that do bring something to the table. Right now you have the best football program at the time in Houston on the table and Cincy who's had the most stability by far of any of the teams left football wise. You are spitting in the wind with any other team not named BYU or UCONN. At least you know what you get with UCONN and BYU. You get 2 name brands that bring something to the table. To me if you go 14 you need some brands in there. While I love the potential of UCF they could just as quickly spiral down hill like they did last season. Thats the problem when you forced to take teams off potential. You get the ceiling and you get the bottom. This is why Cincy and Houston are safe plays. Houston has proven they can bring in quality coaches to keep that program moving and Cincinnati has been the staple of stability amongst g5 schools and I don't even consider cincy a g5 school. USF is basically in the same boat as UCF you get the extreme of the good and the bad. However I would just go with the safe bets. UCONN and BYU are strong names but I can only see them in at 14.

The safe bet is going East. Pac-12 isn't likely to take any more Mountain West schools or BYU - They'll still be there for the foreseeable future. If the writing on the wall says OU, UT, and maybe a few others are leaving in 2024, then the current members of the Big XII benefit from the pro rata clause/staggered revenue payments for new members, the new members benefit from increased revenue, and those who are left behind are in a better situation for the future, especially if any of them win the conference a few times between now and 2024.

(08-14-2016 01:06 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(08-14-2016 09:26 AM)esayem Wrote:  Air Force and BYU should have replaced Colorado and Nebraska many moons ago. Now I'm starting to think Colorado State and BYU are the two best in the long term. They are not going to be pursued by the Pac 12, no matter how successful they become, and they open up a relatively unsaturated market.

So you think Air Force would have been a better option than WVU, TCU or Louisville? Those two (CSU and BYU) are in very low population states. While Cincy brings a big market in a FB rich state with only one P5 school.

This was before Mizzou and A&M left and the Big XII went into panic mode and invited a school out of their footprint damn near on the east coast. So, yes.

You do know that Cincinnati is a far distant second in Ohio behind Ohio State and in some places behind Notre Dame and Michigan as well? I lived in Ohio for many years, Cincinnati does not bring the entirety of Ohio.

If appeasing WVU is a priority, Cincy is a lock.

*Also, according to your football talent, one state logic, Tulane should be a shoe-in with Cincy.

It's immoral if not criminal for this dysfunctional bunch to lead on the fans of 14-15 schools. Only BYU, Cincy and Houston have any real chance of getting in. The rest are hopeless.

(08-14-2016 05:28 PM)westwolf Wrote:  It's immoral if not criminal for this dysfunctional bunch to lead on the fans of 14-15 schools. Only BYU, Cincy and Houston have any real chance of getting in. The rest are hopeless.

I'd say Memphis and UCONN have a pretty damn good chance too. UCF and Air Force have a punchers chance. The rest would take some weird act of god or some odd thinking by B12 presidents

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I don't know why so many of you think Houston is lock. I think there are more than 3 no votes from the out of state schools.Texas and Texas Tech coming out for them in public is just politics. I think the only chance Houston has if they do go to 14. Are they a good candidate, yes. However, I do not think the schools outside of Texas will vote for them especially if the Big 12 expands by just 2.

(08-14-2016 05:40 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I don't know why so many of you think Houston is lock. I think there are more than 3 no votes from the out of state schools.Texas and Texas Tech coming out for them in public is just politics. I think the only chance Houston has if they do go to 14. Are they a good candidate, yes. However, I do not think the schools outside of Texas will vote for them especially if the Big 12 expands by just 2.

I get why you say that but I don't see how Houston doesn't sneak in just off politics alone. We all know Texas and Oklahoma can kill this deal easily and I think houston gets in off a compromise and a hand shake. I'm not all the way privy to Texas politics but it seems like the Governor drew a line in the sand saying its Houston or nothing at all. Thats a pretty strong stance given the state has the most schools in the league. I just don't see Houston getting left out regardless of how TCU, Baylor, OSU, or anything other school feel about it. Again I could be really really wrong about that but it seems like when politics step in throwing weight it makes a difference. Virginia Tech being the similar situation with the Virginia Governor single handedly throwing a wrench on that whole realignment.

(08-14-2016 05:35 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(08-14-2016 05:28 PM)westwolf Wrote:  It's immoral if not criminal for this dysfunctional bunch to lead on the fans of 14-15 schools. Only BYU, Cincy and Houston have any real chance of getting in. The rest are hopeless.

I'd say Memphis and UCONN have a pretty damn good chance too. UCF and Air Force have a punchers chance. The rest would take some weird act of god or some odd thinking by B12 presidents

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I do agree if they go to 14 all those schools have a good chance. It would seem like UCF and UCONN and maybe Memphis would have the best shots out of that group but they all at least have a fighters chance outside of the 3 schools at the top of most people list....BYU, UH, UC.

(08-14-2016 03:24 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-14-2016 01:06 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(08-14-2016 09:26 AM)esayem Wrote:  Air Force and BYU should have replaced Colorado and Nebraska many moons ago. Now I'm starting to think Colorado State and BYU are the two best in the long term. They are not going to be pursued by the Pac 12, no matter how successful they become, and they open up a relatively unsaturated market.

So you think Air Force would have been a better option than WVU, TCU or Louisville? Those two (CSU and BYU) are in very low population states. While Cincy brings a big market in a FB rich state with only one P5 school.

This was before Mizzou and A&M left and the Big XII went into panic mode and invited a school out of their footprint damn near on the east coast. So, yes.

You do know that Cincinnati is a far distant second in Ohio behind Ohio State and in some places behind Notre Dame and Michigan as well? I lived in Ohio for many years, Cincinnati does not bring the entirety of Ohio.

If appeasing WVU is a priority, Cincy is a lock.

*Also, according to your football talent, one state logic, Tulane should be a shoe-in with Cincy.

You must be bummed ACC took pitt.

(08-13-2016 09:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-13-2016 04:11 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  With Air Force now in the hunt, I think that is huge. To me, these would be the best adds to the conference and go to 14

Air Force - Brings back the Colorado Mkt and national following.
BYU - Best tradition, national following
Cinci - Best non P5 program with football and basketball Ohio Market.
Houston - Not really sure it really brings anything from a TV perspective to the B12. But they seem to have the political sway. Football appears up and coming with a good history.


Just my 2 cents. Like to hear other's thought.

None of the above, although Air Force is interesting with regards to Navy and a possible ACC position.

I say that with no malice. But I do say that because Texas and buddies will not be behind it so there will possibly not be the 8 needed votes, and even if they get 8 it only takes 1 vote to bar a GOR extension. No GOR extension means a very short lived conference membership, at least as a P5 conference, for those who join.

They promised the Old Big East they would remain a power conference where bowls were concerned. Of course it didn't turn out that way for long.

But the good news for G5 schools here is that if Air Force, Navy, & Army crack the P barrier I think it is a very good sign that each of the remaining P4 conferences, after the demise of the Big 12, will likely move to 18 and could easily have 3 divisions of 6 schools each. If so then Connecticut, Cincinnati, a couple of West coast strong G5's and possibly a UCF / USF and ECU might get those golden tickets after all.

I've always figured that if we get to a P4 with 16 each that the top schools are going to eventually regret the condensed competition because their fans simply won't get that excited over a 9-3 season even if they make the playoffs. These conferences are going to need some extra schools so that more of an annual bell curve develops with a few 10-2 and 11-1 schools. That doesn't mean the additions will be cellar dwellers either. It means that the middle will get larger and that will help those that have great years to have records that reflect it in ways that fans identify with.

I think it will be interesting to see how the structure of the P conferences now takes shape.

That's quite the stretch to say that if two service academies who have a built in national following because of their "alumni" (people who served in that branch) get added to the P5, it has positive relevance to a bunch of geographic outliers and directional schools.

Funny story, true story.

Dennis Dodd ‏@dennisdoddcbs 2h2 hours ago
Filed to CBS Sports: Remember those 18 schools on @Big12Conference expansion list? At least 1 doesn’t know how it got there.

I remember some ESPN guy saying they were interviewing 17 or 18 schools according to "sources." But, this will somehow be Big12s fault cause they clown show.

(08-15-2016 08:09 AM)krup Wrote:  

(08-13-2016 09:58 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-13-2016 04:11 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  With Air Force now in the hunt, I think that is huge. To me, these would be the best adds to the conference and go to 14

Air Force - Brings back the Colorado Mkt and national following.
BYU - Best tradition, national following
Cinci - Best non P5 program with football and basketball Ohio Market.
Houston - Not really sure it really brings anything from a TV perspective to the B12. But they seem to have the political sway. Football appears up and coming with a good history.


Just my 2 cents. Like to hear other's thought.

None of the above, although Air Force is interesting with regards to Navy and a possible ACC position.

I say that with no malice. But I do say that because Texas and buddies will not be behind it so there will possibly not be the 8 needed votes, and even if they get 8 it only takes 1 vote to bar a GOR extension. No GOR extension means a very short lived conference membership, at least as a P5 conference, for those who join.

They promised the Old Big East they would remain a power conference where bowls were concerned. Of course it didn't turn out that way for long.

But the good news for G5 schools here is that if Air Force, Navy, & Army crack the P barrier I think it is a very good sign that each of the remaining P4 conferences, after the demise of the Big 12, will likely move to 18 and could easily have 3 divisions of 6 schools each. If so then Connecticut, Cincinnati, a couple of West coast strong G5's and possibly a UCF / USF and ECU might get those golden tickets after all.

I've always figured that if we get to a P4 with 16 each that the top schools are going to eventually regret the condensed competition because their fans simply won't get that excited over a 9-3 season even if they make the playoffs. These conferences are going to need some extra schools so that more of an annual bell curve develops with a few 10-2 and 11-1 schools. That doesn't mean the additions will be cellar dwellers either. It means that the middle will get larger and that will help those that have great years to have records that reflect it in ways that fans identify with.

I think it will be interesting to see how the structure of the P conferences now takes shape.

That's quite the stretch to say that if two service academies who have a built in national following because of their "alumni" (people who served in that branch) get added to the P5, it has positive relevance to a bunch of geographic outliers and directional schools.

There are three, Army, Navy, and Air Force, and if they do get in somebody is going to have to accompany them. Now whether every conference moves to 18 or not is another matter entirely.

A year ago those three were still under an agreement by their commandants that they would not seek P membership. It seems things are changing at the academies after the required service and weight restrictions have been modified for athletes.

We'll see.