(08-10-2016 08:00 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  If the Big 12 adds just two and they both come from the AAC then we should invite BYU since this means their P5 dreams are over.

If BYU dreams would be over getting into a P5 conference then it really wouldn't be a need for them to join a G-5 conference when they would still be making more money as an independent.

And no, I don't think ESPN is even about to pay the AAC millions more than what they are getting now especially if two teams bolt.

(08-10-2016 03:58 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 08:00 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  If the Big 12 adds just two and they both come from the AAC then we should invite BYU since this means their P5 dreams are over.

If BYU dreams would be over getting into a P5 conference then it really wouldn't be a need for them to join a G-5 conference when they would still be making more money as an independent.

And no, I don't think ESPN is even about to pay the AAC millions more than what they are getting now especially if two teams bolt.

proof?

(08-10-2016 11:21 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 10:46 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 10:03 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 09:45 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 08:32 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  I really think if Cincinnati leaves that Toledo would make for a great add (sorry to our beloved Husky). They are the only athletic department with the stability, facilities, alumni support, and structure to take on the added expenses while also maintaining a footprint in Ohio and not widening the footprint by that much. They generated $12.1M in pure source revenue (gifts, ticketing, luxury amenities, not counting TV money) this past year which significantly dwarfs all other MAC schools and most other non-AAC G5's and have a $29.9M athletics budget with a 35% subsidy at this point. If they bump their subsidy up to AAC levels (mid-$20M from the roughly $10M they have right now) and add in our TV revenue, their budget could easily jump into the mid-$40M range which would be comparable with all other schools not named UConn, UC, or UCF. Renovated basketball arena in 2011, one of the largest Press Box/Luxury suite facilities in college athletics at the Glass Bowl, and maintain 17 varsity sports with sustained academic and athletic success in many (baseball, football, women's basketball, cross country, and women's soccer chief among them). They'd be a quality add for sure.

It all depends on who the two adds are IMO. If it is Houston and Cincinnati, you could look to add a Texas team and a Midwestern team; if it's Memphis and Cincinnati gone, I would think the conference leadership would look at the Gulf Coast or Mid-Atlantic to add to consolidate the footprint so to speak.

Keep in mind---Ohio St would be a clear #1 in that market--and newly minted P5 Cincy being a solid number two in the Ohio market---the remaining knot of 4 MAC schools would comprise the third position in the Ohio market---adding a lone school like Toledo would give the AAC a weak number 4 position in the Ohio FBS market.

Might be better off leaving the Ohio market and entering a state where the AAC could be a clear number 2 or at least 3. As poor of an addition as they are, UMass probably offers a better tool to increase the AAC media value than any single MAC school in the crowded Ohio marketplace. I think I'd avoid the Ohio market if we lose Cincy.

I lived in Toledo for 18 years growing up and worked for UT for 3 years in my mid-20's. I can tell you from significant experience and market penetration studies that we did in enrollment and athletic marketing that OSU isn't even #2 in the market. Michigan is #1 and UT really is the #2 team in Toledo when looking only at the primary rooting interest, they have a better average attendance at their revenue sports than some of our schools already, and they generate quite a bit more revenue that the lower end of our conference-mates...that's for dang sure. Most fans don't have singular allegiances up here, honestly there are a ton of dual fans that follow UT sports because it's the hometown team and see no issue with their other allegiances, plus the local media partnership with the largest regionally owned, broadcasted, and operated sports station in America (BCSN) has helped by broadcasting every single varsity sport at UT...hell they actually gained a lot of fans in the Toledo area from the OSU contingent after beating Michigan in football a few years back. Last time I talked with my old colleague in the AD, they're looking at increased season tickets sales for the 9th straight year in football and basketball as well and now have just over 60,000 unique alumni donors. All I'm saying is they would definitely be worth the look.

Truth be told, none of these additions would be for a whole state market, they would be for penetration in specific areas/DMA's and Toledo would offer that more than any of the other MACs, most of the MWC schools, and probably all of the Sun Belts when looking at populations.

I don't doubt they have support in the Toledo area. The Toledo market would be the #76 TV market in the US.

Just saying, someplace else might offer the ability to make inroads to an entire state. For instance, (not saying they are good all around candidate), Arky St offers a solid football program with good facilties and an opportunity to be a clear #2 choice in the state. Other than the Hogs, there are no other FBS programs in Arkansas. UMass, as well, would be another place where there is a clear opportunity to be #2 FBS option in a well populated state. Frankly, this is where Mountain West options shine the brightest.

Understandable...I just don't see the shine of the MWC candidates making up for the Millions of dollars that they'd cost in travel for schools. Arkansas St would be interesting given their geographical sense and strength of their football, but are they non-revenues? And in a state that has a population smaller than 6 of our current DMA markets, and that's likely to be dominated by the boss hog (pun intended) in the state, would it be worth it?

UMass is a completely different beast entirely...check out their attendance (and performance). Low isn't even the right word, and that's in a market that couldn't care less about college athletics (Boston/NE is a pro sports area if there ever was one). I understand the geography...but again, I don't know if there are any other positives there.

I think this should likely be an add to improve competitive balance and on-field product, because there truthfully aren't a lot of prime media adds. Toledo has a proven track record of athletic success, a proven track record of department stability, a strong foothold in their (smaller) home market, and financial stability and revenue generation. I just think they're a much better candidate, with personal bias aside, than many of the others that have been listed. Rice, ODU, MTSU, UAB, F_U, etc...I'm sorry, but Toledo is a better candidate than them all.

Attendance and competitive balance are fair points and we definitely have a large number of fair weather fans. Competitive balance has started to improve as we recruited the #80 recruiting class for football and top #35 class in basketball. Regards to football, we also have 6 Juco transfers coming in, include Andrew Ford at QB. The schedule is tougher so win loss wise do not anticipate a difference this year but certainly do for 2017.
UMass Juco player article

In basketball we had a great recruiting class, plus a four start recruit, who sat out last year. In this coming year we made Wabissa Bede, 4-star recruit, final cut of 5 schools.
UMass BB Recruiting

Basketball is a perfect example of fair weather friends. When we are good in 2014, we have a number of sell-outs and were #77 in the country, 6,544 (85,069/13 games) . This does not count the BYU game in Springfield, which was a sell-out of over 7k. The team should be really good by conference time.Attendance article

Football attendance has suffered from the past AD choices of Morris, who ran the program into the ground, no way to start FBS football. Then he compounded it by playing almost all P5 teams in the OOC schedule. It will take a while to build the base back up. That said expect over 30k for the Boston College game.

(08-10-2016 08:56 AM)L-yes Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 07:51 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  Rumors are that the commish has been talking to various candidates and may be ready to pull the trigger once the Big 12 makes a move.

With the season starting soon, should the AAC to act fast to replace defectors or wait?

If we're to believe that Western expansion is a possibility, I'm thinking that the AAC takes its time.

However, if Wichita State is on deck, that can be announced immediately. As can Army...

The reason this is important is because the conference has built up some good cred throughout the first 3 years. If it takes a big hit and waits too long to address the loss(es) that may foster the perception that it's been mortally wounded. OTOH, if the AAC adds attractive candidates right away, it could look like the American is bearing down on being that clear #6.

I guess we'll find out soon enough. Aresco should be joined at the hip with Chet Gladchuk (NAVY) right now. And some reports say he very much is.

Some interesting tweets from mhver3... We all know he reads tea leaves, but interesting nonetheless.


MHver3
‏@MHver3 
AAC is going about business as if they are losing at least UC-My source says they are already pretty far along in talks with several schools


MHver3
‏@MHver3 
The contract was largely undervalued and if ESPN/AAC can't reach deal fox will likely step in


MHver3
‏@MHver3 
AAC contact telling me Boise ST and others in MWC may still be in play for AAC when defections occur


MHver3
‏@MHver3 
Those talks have been ongoing for months and with AAC deal set to be renegotiated after defections it could be a financial boon

One day someone will write a book studying what lies behind the mass psychology that drives people to hang on the every word of sources who have proven to be fraudulent while knowing this to be the case. It is fascinating.

https://youtu.be/AegLdB7UI4U

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Aside/apart from all of this B12 speculation, why has the AAC not extended a BB only offer to Wichita St? They are clearly the class of available BB schools & it would complete the Navy membership without constraints on the AAC in regards to replacing any schools lost to B12 expansion. This is one move that will increase the TV contract value - albeit not much because its not FB & Wichita St would bring tourney credits.

Now back to the discussion of potential full membership schools that don't bring any value to the AAC...........IF BYU & BSU can't be lured into the AAC. And even without BYU, devaluing the MWC would increase the value of the AAC, relatively speaking.

(08-10-2016 09:14 AM)NYCTUFan Wrote:  IMO if the AAC loses 2 they don’t need to rush to expand, but they need to be strategic.

First I would look to Army and BYU, both for football only. I’ve spoken to a number of Army fans who are ex-military and while they weren’t very big on the idea of joining a conference 3 years ago, they see the landscape of being an independent changing and now feel they are getting to the point where they will have no choice, to stay relevant they need to join the AAC. Navy joining the AAC has helped change their perspective.

It makes sense for BYU to join the AAC. They are used to the costs of traveling as an independent so being somewhat on an island is nothing new to them and as a football only there is no need for a travel partner. With the amount of schools being talked about for Big12 expansion coming from the AAC it gives credibility to the quality of play in the conference and it’s not like joining the AAC is something that would limit BYU’s P5 options. With no GOR and relatively low exit fees if a year or two down the road a P5 came calling there is nothing holding them or anyone else in the AAC back from making a move.

From there I would take a serious look at WSU and or VCU for Olympic sports. The TV contracts signed by the MAC and CUSA lately should have the A10 schools nervous. They are getting 350K per year now on a contract that was negotiated when Xavier and Butler were part of the conference. VCU’s profile (large, public) doesn’t make them a fit for the Big East, especially when you have Dayton and St Louis (both Catholic both private) waiting in the wings. It costs a lot of money to compete nationally in basketball and from a revenue standpoint VCU runs the risk of being left behind.

I believe WSU would come as long as there was a stipulation that if they did move football up to the FBS level, as long as they met some predetermined facility and infrastructure investment requirements and played a predetermined amount of time as an independent they would have a spot in the conference as a full member.

Say you lose Houston and Cincinnati, you end up with:
East Football
UConn
Army
Temple
ECU
UCF
USF

West Football
Navy
Memphis
Tulane
SMU
Tulsa
BYU

Basketball
UConn
Temple
VCU
ECU
UCF
USF
Memphis
Tulane
SMU
Tulsa
Wichita State

That’s a pretty solid lineup for TV that brings benefits to everyone. Army has a conference home and loses the scheduling challenges of independence. BYU has a path to a NY6 bowl and joining the AAC wouldn’t feed the perception they are going back to the WAC by joining the MWC. VCU can take advantage of the revenue benefits football brings to the TV deals, and WSU get the benefits of more money in a high profile basketball conference with the potential to have a home for football if they decide to go that route. The AAC wins because they are still clearly the best of the rest and distances the perception that it’s just a CUSA reboot.

Aresco needs to be a hell of a salesman and the chips need to fall into place, but the AAC could come out of this OK.

(08-10-2016 09:42 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  Quickly and deliberately. Try to get Army + Air Force if we lose 2. If we lose 4 go for Army, Air Force, BYU and CSU.

Screw it... Go to 16. If we could lure Air Force I think you could have a good shot at the rest of these.

West - Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Boise State
East - USF, UCF, ECU, Navy, Temple, UConn, Army, UMass

Expanding with best brands, academies and another flagship U.

This would be ideal.

(08-10-2016 10:47 AM)bigredmachine Wrote:  Add

NIU
Army
Buffalo
UMass

I would replace NIU with Rice.

(08-10-2016 05:23 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 03:58 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 08:00 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  If the Big 12 adds just two and they both come from the AAC then we should invite BYU since this means their P5 dreams are over.

If BYU dreams would be over getting into a P5 conference then it really wouldn't be a need for them to join a G-5 conference when they would still be making more money as an independent.

And no, I don't think ESPN is even about to pay the AAC millions more than what they are getting now especially if two teams bolt.

proof?

Of what?

(08-10-2016 06:34 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 05:23 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 03:58 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 08:00 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  If the Big 12 adds just two and they both come from the AAC then we should invite BYU since this means their P5 dreams are over.

If BYU dreams would be over getting into a P5 conference then it really wouldn't be a need for them to join a G-5 conference when they would still be making more money as an independent.

And no, I don't think ESPN is even about to pay the AAC millions more than what they are getting now especially if two teams bolt.

proof?

Of what?

"I don't think ESPN is even about to pay the AAC millions more than what they are getting now especially if two teams bolt."

"they would still be making more money as an independent."

proof?

(08-10-2016 03:39 PM)vick mike Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 09:42 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  Quickly and deliberately. Try to get Army + Air Force if we lose 2. If we lose 4 go for Army, Air Force, BYU and CSU.

Screw it... Go to 16. If we could lure Air Force I think you could have a good shot at the rest of these.

West - Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Boise State
East - USF, UCF, ECU, Navy, Temple, UConn, Army, UMass

Expanding with best brands, academies and another flagship U.

Forget Boise, add San Diego. They will be an improvement over losing the Bearcats in football, they are much better than Boise in basketball, and they want to be here.

I would rather have SDSU in the AAC rather than Col. State any day.

(08-10-2016 05:42 PM)Steve1981 Wrote:  Basketball is a perfect example of fair weather friends. When we are good in 2014, we have a number of sell-outs and were #77 in the country, 6,544 (85,069/13 games) . This does not count the BYU game in Springfield, which was a sell-out of over 7k. The team should be really good by conference time.Attendance article

Does this allow me to talk up our Top 25 attendance at Wichita? It is about 4000 more per game than UMass apparently in their best years.

(08-10-2016 07:02 PM)SubGod22 Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 05:42 PM)Steve1981 Wrote:  Basketball is a perfect example of fair weather friends. When we are good in 2014, we have a number of sell-outs and were #77 in the country, 6,544 (85,069/13 games) . This does not count the BYU game in Springfield, which was a sell-out of over 7k. The team should be really good by conference time.Attendance article

Does this allow me to talk up our Top 25 attendance at Wichita? It is about 4000 more per game than UMass apparently in their best years.

Sure, have at it

(08-10-2016 07:02 PM)SubGod22 Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 05:42 PM)Steve1981 Wrote:  Basketball is a perfect example of fair weather friends. When we are good in 2014, we have a number of sell-outs and were #77 in the country, 6,544 (85,069/13 games) . This does not count the BYU game in Springfield, which was a sell-out of over 7k. The team should be really good by conference time.Attendance article

Does this allow me to talk up our Top 25 attendance at Wichita? It is about 4000 more per game than UMass apparently in their best years.

I'm on your side regarding Wichita St. Adding Wichita St should have happened with the Navy FB only invite. Wichita St would complete the Navy membership & between Navy FB & Wichita St BB, it would be as strong a membership as any in the conference. And it would do so without any complications to replacements expected with B12 expansion.

(08-10-2016 07:02 PM)SubGod22 Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 05:42 PM)Steve1981 Wrote:  Basketball is a perfect example of fair weather friends. When we are good in 2014, we have a number of sell-outs and were #77 in the country, 6,544 (85,069/13 games) . This does not count the BYU game in Springfield, which was a sell-out of over 7k. The team should be really good by conference time.Attendance article

Does this allow me to talk up our Top 25 attendance at Wichita? It is about 4000 more per game than UMass apparently in their best years.

If UMass sold out every home game you'd still have 1000 more fans per game.


All signs point to improvement for both basketball and football, but it won't be easy to get back to the points we were at ~20 years ago (you all should be familiar with UMass Basketball of the 90s, but the late 90s also had an FCS national championship followed by several very good years for football).

(08-10-2016 06:34 PM)acc4life Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 10:47 AM)bigredmachine Wrote:  Add

NIU
Army
Buffalo
UMass

I would replace NIU with Rice.

Enjoy watching that access bowl disappear then. Rice doesn't help the AAC get back there, a team like NIU does

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We dont need anymore yankee schools.

AAC should kick out TUlsa and Tulane (deadweight)
and add Boise, Col St, AF, Army and Toledo


problem solved

(08-10-2016 09:10 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  AAC should kick out TUlsa and Tulane (deadweight)
and add Boise, Col St, AF, Army and Toledo


problem solved

Replace Toledo with their daddy NIU and THEN problem solved.

Toledo is our whipping boy

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(08-10-2016 09:12 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  

(08-10-2016 09:10 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  AAC should kick out TUlsa and Tulane (deadweight)
and add Boise, Col St, AF, Army and Toledo


problem solved

Replace Toledo with their daddy NIU and THEN problem solved.

Toledo is our whipping boy

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Your whipping boy beat a ranked Temple team in a bowl game and ended the year ranked last year; what did you guys do?