I think the Big XII could survive but it might take some doing. First, the B1G would have to back off of its opposition to the proposal that allows CCG's in leagues with more than 10 teams only where there is round-robin division play, which I think could easily happen if OU or KU were amenable to bolting, thus giving the B1G an odd number of teams. Say, for the sake of argument, that KU went to the B1G and OU went to the SEC at the end of the GOR. Also assume, for the hell of it, that neither the ACC or the SEC would offer to take WVU off the Big XII's hands. That would, in your proposed scenario, leave a 10 team rump Big XII with Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Cincy. With OU gone from the league, but almost certainly still on the schedule, Texas is even more secure in its place as the undisputed big kahuna. In that situation, would leaving to go to the PAC, with its mediocre network history and lack of east coast attention, or trying to strike a "Notre Dame deal" with the ACC and the attendant costs for non-revenue sports, really outweigh remaining in the league, picking whichever G5 teams you wanted to let into your club, and insisting on the continuation of the LHN and inequitable TV dollars from the conference? I think there is a good argument that the Horns would be content to let the Big XII become the Big TEX. Invite as many or as few teams as you'd like (assuming CCG rules are further deregulated) but probably add at least BYU, and maybe Colorado State, UConn or whatever G5 teams are hot at the end of the GOR and then focus on strong OOC scheduling (beyond an annual game with OU). It's not like the remaining teams in the conference would have better options, they'd all likely be boned if Texas went to the PAC or went independent after an OU and KU exit. I am sure they'd agree to whatever terms were necessary to keep Texas, and thus the perception of being a Power 5 conference, alive (as we all know that, based on recent performance, that any conference with the Horns is necessarily a "power" league ).

(08-09-2016 06:41 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  I think the Big XII could survive but it might take some doing. First, the B1G would have to back off of its opposition to the proposal that allows CCG's in leagues with more than 10 teams only where there is round-robin division play, which I think could easily happen if OU or KU were amenable to bolting, thus giving the B1G an odd number of teams. Say, for the sake of argument, that KU went to the B1G and OU went to the SEC at the end of the GOR. Also assume, for the hell of it, that neither the ACC or the SEC would offer to take WVU off the Big XII's hands. That would, in your proposed scenario, leave a 10 team rump Big XII with Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Houston, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Cincy. With OU gone from the league, but almost certainly still on the schedule, Texas is even more secure in its place as the undisputed big kahuna. In that situation, would leaving to go to the PAC, with its mediocre network history and lack of east coast attention, or trying to strike a "Notre Dame deal" with the ACC and the attendant costs for non-revenue sports, really outweigh remaining in the league, picking whichever G5 teams you wanted to let into your club, and insisting on the continuation of the LHN and inequitable TV dollars from the conference? I think there is a good argument that the Horns would be content to let the Big XII become the Big TEX. Invite as many or as few teams as you'd like (assuming CCG rules are further deregulated) but probably add at least BYU, and maybe Colorado State, UConn or whatever G5 teams are hot at the end of the GOR and then focus on strong OOC scheduling (beyond an annual game with OU). It's not like the remaining teams in the conference would have better options, they'd all likely be boned if Texas went to the PAC or went independent after an OU and KU exit. I am sure they'd agree to whatever terms were necessary to keep Texas, and thus the perception of being a Power 5 conference, alive (as we all know that, based on recent performance, that any conference with the Horns is necessarily a "power" league ).

Whew....you lost me in all of that verbage. Paragraphs really help readibility.

(08-09-2016 11:23 AM)ken d Wrote:  I assume that, if all the parties agree to add Cincy and Houston to the Big XII now, that ESPN and Fox would prefer an extended GoR and contract, but would settle for removing the "pro rata payment for additions" clause in the current contract. That would bring the total number of schools in the P5 (+ ND) to 67 - four more than the number of schools in the BCS when it was created in 1998.

Would that end P5 realignment, at least until the expiration of the B12 contract in 2025? And if it does, is anybody working to find a drug that will cure withdrawal symptoms for people on internet forums like this one?

It would for the ACC !

(08-09-2016 12:51 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(08-09-2016 12:42 PM)ken d Wrote:  I guess my answer is that, whether it stops actual realignment or not, it's not going to stop speculating about realignment. What was I thinking?

Right, nothing will stop the speculating/fantasizing about goofy four-time-zone conferences or West Texas A&M and Valparaiso joining P5 conferences.

Four time zones is for sissies! The Big XII should add UConn, BYU, San Diego State and Hawaii...



Sent from my HTC Desire 626 using CSNbbs mobile app

Nope

If you assume that only Houston and Cincy will be added to the Big XII, the P5 (including ND) will have 67 members. All of them have played football continuously at the FBS level since the split in 1978. By my count, there are only 23 more current FBS schools who can make that claim. For full disclosure, no MAC schools are included because they were essentially relegated to FCS at the time of the split, but reinstated later (either due to a lawsuit or threat of lawsuit IIRC).

Of these 23 schools, there are 8 who also averaged at least 30K in attendance over the past 6 seasons. These are (attendance in 000's in parentheses):

BYU (60)
ECU (46)
Navy (33)
Army (33)
San Diego St (33)
Air Force (32)
Fresno St (32)
Hawaii (30)

In addition, there are four schools who moved up from FCS or started a new program who averaged more than 30K. They are:

UCF (37)
USF (37)
Boise (34)
UConn (33)

The pool of P5 candidates appears to be getting pretty shallow.

Realignment will never end until there is a centralized entity that organizes college sports conferences ala the professional leagues. Until then, I could even see a period of contraction/splitting of conferences sometime in the future.

(08-10-2016 09:15 AM)ken d Wrote:  If you assume that only Houston and Cincy will be added to the Big XII, the P5 (including ND) will have 67 members. All of them have played football continuously at the FBS level since the split in 1978. By my count, there are only 23 more current FBS schools who can make that claim. For full disclosure, no MAC schools are included because they were essentially relegated to FCS at the time of the split, but reinstated later (either due to a lawsuit or threat of lawsuit IIRC).

This is not correct. First, the members of the MAC were not relegated at the time of the split, but rather about 4 years later. Second, Toledo and CMU were not relegated at that time. And if you are including UC, due to it's status being undecided at the time of the 1982 relegation (that is, it's status being reviewed or appealed under the prevailing NCAA rules, as opposed to a legal fight in the courts), you really ought to also include MiamiU and WMU, which also had undecided status at the time of the relegation.

(08-10-2016 09:15 AM)ken d Wrote:  If you assume that only Houston and Cincy will be added to the Big XII, the P5 (including ND) will have 67 members. All of them have played football continuously at the FBS level since the split in 1978. By my count, there are only 23 more current FBS schools who can make that claim. For full disclosure, no MAC schools are included because they were essentially relegated to FCS at the time of the split, but reinstated later (either due to a lawsuit or threat of lawsuit IIRC).

Of these 23 schools, there are 8 who also averaged at least 30K in attendance over the past 6 seasons. These are (attendance in 000's in parentheses):

BYU (60)
ECU (46)
Navy (33)
Army (33)
San Diego St (33)
Air Force (32)
Fresno St (32)
Hawaii (30)

In addition, there are four schools who moved up from FCS or started a new program who averaged more than 30K. They are:

UCF (37)
USF (37)
Boise (34)
UConn (33)

The pool of P5 candidates appears to be getting pretty shallow.

Many of these teams have to be treated like investing in a startup. Put some money in with a good chance it won't deliver, but with the hope that when a team delivers, it will deliver big.

That is part of the reason I think Boise should be added to the Big 12. They have sustained success in football. They have made, and won, three Fiesta bowls in the last 10 years. Though they have been slipping lately, not finishing in the top 10, they have the recent resume that would help the Big 12 make big bowl games if the big 2 were to leave.