It is relatively easy to imagine a world where the Big 12 does not expand, then in 2025 or thereabouts Texas and Oklahoma ride off into other conferences (or maybe both into the BIG). What would be the position of the remaining 8 teams?

On the plus side: they would still have decent football attendance - better than the G5, and many Pac 12 teams. They would have basketball credits and buyouts to keep revenues up for a few years. They would have fairly long-standing rivalries. They would have a collection of pretty solid athletic departments.

On the minus side: Their biggest TV market (Texas) would likely be dominated by the SEC and Big 10. Their remaining TV markets would be pretty small and scattered. They would have the negative connotations of losing six programs to other conferences. Lack of "hometown" bowl games.

Results: Immediate loss of P5 status. Immediate loss of most bowl game slots. Drop in TV revenue to near G5 levels. No conference network as there would be too few teams. More years of G5-P5 split reducing the value of potential additions. Possibly inviting BYU, but being rejected - just like the Big East when they invited BYU. Having to help teams that do accept the invitation to pay their way out of their current conference. Minimal entrance fees for new teams. Loss of rivalry games.

I see expansion helping this situation in many ways. First, since Oklahoma wants to expand, they could probably get them to agree to expand the grant of rights for 5 years or so. That would let them ride the gravy train a little longer, as it would line up with the time frame of the LHN contract. That would probably do more to save the conference than anything. Second, it would allow for big new inflows of money, both to the "Remaining 8" and the schools coming in. Third, the expanded number of teams would allow for teams beside Texas to pool their third-tier content into a network, increasing the payout per school. Fourth, BYU would certainly accept an invite right now, and after an exodus would have the highest attendance in the conference. It would allow for the maintaining of some bowl games and TV money. Fourth, they would still have enough teams to have a viable conference championship game, bringing in more revenue.

Go Cougs!!!!!!

A lot like the AAC.

OK, in all seriousness, I don't think the Big XII would go anywhere if Texas and Oklahoma left in 2025, as long as those two were the only ones to go. The remaining schools that are currently in the conference are good schools and belong in the top tier of college athletics. IMHO, the expansion of the Big XII by four schools now, rather than two schools, would further solidify the group, even in the event of a defection or two. The new schools would have 10 years of history within the conference and would help keep remaining members safe from the implosion that some would like to see. It could lead to a conference network, which would give the Big XII greater stability. So no, I don't believe the conference would be relegated to G5 status or even be considered AAC 2.0, but they may take on the "least of these" status enjoyed by the ACC for years. I think the ACC overcame that in a big way and the Big XII could too, in time.

I guess it would be a 14 team conference, with UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, Temple, East Carolina and Memphis joining with West Virginia in an eastern division. It would still receive the same share of the CFP money the other power conferences get, and it would still be guaranteed a spot in the NY6. Whether it would also be guaranteed a host spot in one of those bowls is open to question. It would not be either the Rose, Sugar or Orange Bowls, but conceivably they could be the contract host for either the Fiesta or Cotton Bowl (most likely).

In terms of its relative strength, this conference would be, on average, at least a touchdown per game stronger than any G5, and there would only be two G5 programs - Boise and BYU - that would consistently be stronger than half the members of this version of the Big XII.

They would arguably be the best of the G5/6. However... If Texas and Oklahoma leave Kansas will be right behind them. As the OP noted the B12 has some very good 2nd tier programs. Several of those would be gone, either as package deals with UT/OU/KU or on their own.

It all depends on how many programs would be able to find new homes after OU and UT left. Texas Tech would probably try to go with Texas and Kansas would probably try to get into the B1G.

The Big East had as few as 3 teams and the conference is still around.

Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, Baylor, and West Virginia will find it tough to find new conferences.

West Virginia would try to get into the ACC and SEC and there is no guarantee they will get into either conference.

Potential new Big 12 Conference after OU and UT leave:

New Mexico
BYU
Colorado State
Houston
Navy
UConn (could end up in the ACC eventually)
Cincinnati
UCF
Tulane
West Virginia
Kansas State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
TCU
Baylor
Texas Tech (unless they are able to follow Texas or get into the Pac 12)

That would put the Big 12 at 16 schools.

I think that if Texas, OU and Kansas leave then the B12 looks a lot like the MAC. I cant comprehend so many current B12 members being from one state anyhow. It all seems kind of inbred to me.

(08-06-2016 09:07 PM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  It is relatively easy to imagine a world where the Big 12 does not expand, then in 2025 or thereabouts Texas and Oklahoma ride off into other conferences (or maybe both into the BIG). What would be the position of the remaining 8 teams?

On the plus side: they would still have decent football attendance - better than the G5, and many Pac 12 teams. They would have basketball credits and buyouts to keep revenues up for a few years. They would have fairly long-standing rivalries. They would have a collection of pretty solid athletic departments.

On the minus side: Their biggest TV market (Texas) would likely be dominated by the SEC and Big 10. Their remaining TV markets would be pretty small and scattered. They would have the negative connotations of losing six programs to other conferences. Lack of "hometown" bowl games.

Results: Immediate loss of P5 status. Immediate loss of most bowl game slots. Drop in TV revenue to near G5 levels. No conference network as there would be too few teams. More years of G5-P5 split reducing the value of potential additions. Possibly inviting BYU, but being rejected - just like the Big East when they invited BYU. Having to help teams that do accept the invitation to pay their way out of their current conference. Minimal entrance fees for new teams. Loss of rivalry games.

I see expansion helping this situation in many ways. First, since Oklahoma wants to expand, they could probably get them to agree to expand the grant of rights for 5 years or so. That would let them ride the gravy train a little longer, as it would line up with the time frame of the LHN contract. That would probably do more to save the conference than anything. Second, it would allow for big new inflows of money, both to the "Remaining 8" and the schools coming in. Third, the expanded number of teams would allow for teams beside Texas to pool their third-tier content into a network, increasing the payout per school. Fourth, BYU would certainly accept an invite right now, and after an exodus would have the highest attendance in the conference. It would allow for the maintaining of some bowl games and TV money. Fourth, they would still have enough teams to have a viable conference championship game, bringing in more revenue.

Go Cougs!!!!!!

the only difference between expansion and no expansion is the teams that are left in the Big 12 now would know who they are going to be stuck in a new G6 conference with after the teams that could and would leave do so

and they can look forward to sharing those exit fees with those teams instead of keeping them to themselves and selecting the best teams to add at that time instead of being stuck with teams added now

there is not a chance in hell that OU is going to sign an extended GOR for even a year unless they also know what any new media contract would pay

and there is not a chance in hell that the Big 12 is going to get a medic contract extension now especially with adding teams the media partners do not want to have added and even more so a media deal that makes UT and OU confident they will be earning near what other top teams are earning during that extended period

you are dreaming that "expansion = stability"

If the Big 12 is at 8, 10, or even 12, I still think it could deliver a solid blow to the Pac 12.

Losing just Texas and Oklahoma:

Kansas, KSU, Oklahoma State, Colorado
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston
Cincinnati, WVU, Memphis, Iowa State
UCLA, Utah, BYU, Arizona

Losing Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and WVU:

Oklahoma State, Colorado, Utah, BYU
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston
Cincinnati, KSU, Memphis, Iowa State
UCLA, California, Arizona, Arizona State






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Kind of weird.
Cheers!

It would be a perfect time to create a true best of the rest conference that should be able to compete with the P4 at that point.

(08-07-2016 12:39 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  If the Big 12 is at 8, 10, or even 12, I still think it could deliver a solid blow to the Pac 12.

Losing just Texas and Oklahoma:

Kansas, KSU, Oklahoma State, Colorado
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston
Cincinnati, WVU, Memphis, Iowa State
UCLA, Utah, BYU, Arizona

Losing Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and WVU:

Oklahoma State, Colorado, Utah, BYU
TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston
Cincinnati, KSU, Memphis, Iowa State
UCLA, California, Arizona, Arizona State

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I could conceive of UCLA leaving the Pac 12 for a Big 12 with Texas and Oklahoma due to the larger amount of money and the failure of the Pac 12 network. But any P-5 team leaving for a Big 12 without those two?

Other than the SEC, no conference can survive the loss of its top two programs, and survive on the same plane they are in now. And even be SEC would be a debate

(08-08-2016 04:24 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  Other than the SEC, no conference can survive the loss of its top two programs, and survive on the same plane they are in now. And even be SEC would be a debate

No doubt the Big XII wouldn't be on the same plane it is now. But for reasons I stated earlier, they would still likely be a P5 conference. They would be diminished with respect to on field strength and average attendance, and for those reasons wouldn't command any where near the media contract they do now.

But in all respects - strength, attendance, revenues - they would still be ahead of any of the G5 conferences by a wide margin, and would still be capable of producing a CFP team on occasion.

(08-06-2016 09:45 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  A lot like the AAC.

Yep. Once those 2 (plus whoever tags along) leave it will be the few unlucky leftovers, some of the MWC, and some the AAC forming the new and improved "best of the rest" conference.

Northern Division
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Memphis
East Carolina
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Colorado State

Southern Division
Brigham Young
Oklahoma State
Baylor
Houston
Southern Methodist
Texas Christian
Texas Tech
New Mexico

East Division
West Virginia/Cincy
Iowa St./Northern Illinois
Kansas/Kansas St.

West Division
Baylor/TCU
Okie St./Texas Tech
Boise St./Air Force

Some assumptions going into this. Though Air Force previously turned down the full Big 12, they would probably be interested in a watered-down Big 12. They also have a large stadium and a national following.

With Texas and Oklahoma leaving, the Big 12 will have to get the best football teams available. Boise St. and Northern Illinois have shown staying power, and are likely to have another big bowl under their belts. Instead of developing Colorado St., Memphis, or the Florida schools, the Big 12 will have to jump at who is good right now.

I figure Houston, without the Big 12, will revert back to revolving coaches, Memphis will revert to historical averages, and that UCF will not have the depth of assistant coached necessary to rebuild their program. Marshall will continue to do well, but West Virginia will cancel their admission. East Carolina will do as well as Cincy, but Kansas will get a bone thrown their way due to the Bearcat basketball program and geographic compactness. BYU will look at the conference, and decide it can make more money as an independent in football, and WCC in basketball.

(08-09-2016 01:35 PM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  
East Division
West Virginia/Cincy
Iowa St./Northern Illinois
Kansas/Kansas St.

West Division
Baylor/TCU
Okie St./Texas Tech
Boise St./Air Force

Some assumptions going into this. Though Air Force previously turned down the full Big 12, they would probably be interested in a watered-down Big 12. They also have a large stadium and a national following.

With Texas and Oklahoma leaving, the Big 12 will have to get the best football teams available. Boise St. and Northern Illinois have shown staying power, and are likely to have another big bowl under their belts. Instead of developing Colorado St., Memphis, or the Florida schools, the Big 12 will have to jump at who is good right now.

I figure Houston, without the Big 12, will revert back to revolving coaches, Memphis will revert to historical averages, and that UCF will not have the depth of assistant coached necessary to rebuild their program. Marshall will continue to do well, but West Virginia will cancel their admission. East Carolina will do as well as Cincy, but Kansas will get a bone thrown their way due to the Bearcat basketball program and geographic compactness. BYU will look at the conference, and decide it can make more money as an independent in football, and WCC in basketball.

A couple of things to consider--

* Houston has enjoyed its current success with revolving coaches

* The facilities at todays UH are far superior to the facilties a decade ago. They include new stadium, new indoor practice facility (already approved), new practice fields, new weight room, remodeled locker room, new basketball practice facility, complete renovation of the basketball arena (already approved), upgraded baseball field and new baseball clubhouse facility---as well as new modern dorms for all students (including athletes).

* Houston's proximity to a large supply of quality FBS prospects will always keep them competitive and will always keep UH as as attractive position for up and coming coaches.