(08-01-2016 10:16 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 10:03 AM)Mademen Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 09:49 AM)Otts Wrote:  As I posted in another thread, the television networks may try to derail the whole thing and I read that Iowa State and some of the other less strong members are insisting on an extension of GOR for any expansion. A long way to go.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journ...12-TV.aspx

ESPN and FOX don't have a leg to stand on, they signed the contract and it was THEIR language that they put in the deal that allows the Big 12 the opportunity for this lucrative cash grab. The Big 12 schools have to realize that the conference is dead in 2025. OU is not going to extend the GOR and neither is Texas. By 2025, I suspect Texas and Kansas are in the Big 10, OU is in the SEC and the other schools including UH are on their knees praying. Essentially everyone in the Big 12 will have 5-6 years to prove their worth to the remaining major conferences.

Yeah, I agree on the ESPN/Fox thing - not sure how much they can say that this act of expansion violates the "spirit of the deal/contract", given that poaching other P5 schools to the Big 12 was always going to be a very unlikely situation. Maybe our resident lawyers know of case studies where this nebulous "spirit of the agreement" term was something that actually proved critical to a decision/dispute - although I'd expect you all would have to read the contract to gain a sense of how that term could be invoked in this situation.

I think the rest is spot on as well...unless the playoff expands to more than four teams in the next 5-6 years a "P5" scenario is just not tenable, and I think OU/UT know this in the back of their minds.

I have no idea how a legal fight would play out. However, if I understand the various speculations, the Big 12 plan is to expand by four teams, increasing TV revenue by $80 million per year. However, only a fraction of those new $$ would go to the new schools, resulting in an increase in TV revenue for the existing conference members.

If the "spirit of the deal" was that the Big 12 could expand without the existing members losing TV revenue, but then those members manipulate the arrangement so that expansion results in an increase in revenue for existing members (at the expense of new members), that seems like a common sense violation of the "spirit of the deal". This is a particularly strong argument if can make the case that the increase in TV revenue for existing members is the primary motivation for the expansion. I.e., no extension to the GOR; obviously just running out the clock to 2025.

(08-01-2016 10:08 AM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 10:03 AM)Mademen Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 09:49 AM)Otts Wrote:  As I posted in another thread, the television networks may try to derail the whole thing and I read that Iowa State and some of the other less strong members are insisting on an extension of GOR for any expansion. A long way to go.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journ...12-TV.aspx

ESPN and FOX don't have a leg to stand on, they signed the contract and it was THEIR language that they put in the deal that allows the Big 12 the opportunity for this lucrative cash grab. The Big 12 schools have to realize that the conference is dead in 2025. OU is not going to extend the GOR and neither is Texas. By 2025, I suspect Texas and Kansas are in the Big 10, OU is in the SEC and the other schools including UH are on their knees praying. Essentially everyone in the Big 12 will have 5-6 years to prove their worth to the remaining major conferences.

Yep. My only caveat is that I think the Pac 12 will be heavily involved with the western Big 12 schools as well, as they otherwise appear about out of reasonable expansion options.

But, to Mademan's point, the current revenue gap between the Big 10/SEC and Pac 12 remains large. Hard to see how it would close much in the next nine years. I have heard rumblings that the Big 10 remains infatuated with a subset of ACC schools including Georgia Tech, but I think the recent ACC Grant of Rights expansion probably shuts that down.

That would then leave, what?

Big XII post-2025:
Baylor
BYU
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Kansas State
Memphis
Oklahoma State* (maybe also to SEC after 2025)
Rice
TCU
Texas Tech
West Virginia

Which is 11 schools left over. Now if SEC also has to take Okie State, that 10 schools left. If that happens, and Rice gets things together in football and makes some NCAA noise in basketball while maintaining baseball (and hopefully betting back to Omaha a few more times), then we'd fit in nicely with those leftovers, and it would be a uuuge improvement over where we are, believe me, we'll love it!

(08-01-2016 11:19 AM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 10:08 AM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 10:03 AM)Mademen Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 09:49 AM)Otts Wrote:  As I posted in another thread, the television networks may try to derail the whole thing and I read that Iowa State and some of the other less strong members are insisting on an extension of GOR for any expansion. A long way to go.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journ...12-TV.aspx

ESPN and FOX don't have a leg to stand on, they signed the contract and it was THEIR language that they put in the deal that allows the Big 12 the opportunity for this lucrative cash grab. The Big 12 schools have to realize that the conference is dead in 2025. OU is not going to extend the GOR and neither is Texas. By 2025, I suspect Texas and Kansas are in the Big 10, OU is in the SEC and the other schools including UH are on their knees praying. Essentially everyone in the Big 12 will have 5-6 years to prove their worth to the remaining major conferences.

Yep. My only caveat is that I think the Pac 12 will be heavily involved with the western Big 12 schools as well, as they otherwise appear about out of reasonable expansion options.

But, to Mademan's point, the current revenue gap between the Big 10/SEC and Pac 12 remains large. Hard to see how it would close much in the next nine years. I have heard rumblings that the Big 10 remains infatuated with a subset of ACC schools including Georgia Tech, but I think the recent ACC Grant of Rights expansion probably shuts that down.

That would then leave, what?

Big XII post-2025:
Baylor
BYU
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Kansas State
Memphis
Oklahoma State* (maybe also to SEC after 2025)
Rice
TCU
Texas Tech
West Virginia

Which is 11 schools left over. Now if SEC also has to take Okie State, that 10 schools left. If that happens, and Rice gets things together in football and makes some NCAA noise in basketball while maintaining baseball (and hopefully betting back to Omaha a few more times), then we'd fit in nicely with those leftovers, and it would be a uuuge improvement over where we are, believe me, we'll love it!

Really hard to speculate on what happens in 2025, but IMO UConn and Tulane would be ahead of Rice in this scenario.

Tulane's Endowment on December 31, 2015: $1.220B

Rice University's Endowment on December 31, 2015: $5.57B

(08-01-2016 11:46 AM)Mademen Wrote:  Really hard to speculate on what happens in 2025, but IMO UConn and Tulane would be ahead of Rice in this scenario.

I think at least UConn. I also wonder what happens with a school/market like Temple.

I have the feeling that we can get our act together enough in the interim 5-6 years to compete with Tulane - although we'll always be dealing with the "incremental New Orleans market" issue.

(08-01-2016 12:06 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(08-01-2016 11:46 AM)Mademen Wrote:  Really hard to speculate on what happens in 2025, but IMO UConn and Tulane would be ahead of Rice in this scenario.

I think at least UConn. I also wonder what happens with a school/market like Temple.

I have the feeling that we can get our act together enough in the interim 5-6 years to compete with Tulane - although we'll always be dealing with the "incremental New Orleans market" issue.

Good call on Temple. I forgot about them. Temple makes more sense than Tulane.

While Temple has an amazing basketball history and program, their football has generally been significantly worse than Rice and they are a commuter school just like an unnamed "university" also located in Houston. They do not deliver the TV market in Philadelphia

(08-01-2016 01:14 PM)texowl2 Wrote:  While Temple has an amazing basketball history and program, their football has generally been significantly worse than Rice and they are a commuter school just like an unnamed "university" also located in Houston. They do not deliver the TV market in Philadelphia

The problem with the scenario laid out above is that we would presumably be the second team from the city of Houston.

In addition ... by definition, every team in the current AAC was in effect prioritized above us. I think we all feel that we're making progress, but by this definition we would have several schools to pass in the pecking order.

Not impossible, but we clearly have work to do.

Baseball in AAC is already weak as Temple, SMU and Tulsa don't play it. Combined with potentially losing Cincinnati and UH, the AAC is down to 6 baseball teams and really hurting inn that sport. I know football drives the bus, but those two going would make adding Rice baseball to AAC more compelling. If the AAC loses even more than 2 teams, they have a disaster in baseball.

(08-08-2016 10:44 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  Baseball in AAC is already weak as Temple, SMU and Tulsa don't play it. Combined with potentially losing Cincinnati and UH, the AAC is down to 6 baseball teams and really hurting inn that sport. I know football drives the bus, but those two going would make adding Rice baseball to AAC more compelling. If the AAC loses even more than 2 teams, they have a disaster in baseball.

They'd have a disaster in baseball if they lost just 2 programs. Yes, football drives the bus, but the ADs and college Presidents are accountable for the other programs-- both mens and womens-- as well. Also, assuming UH leaves, one would think the AAC football programs would still desire an entre into the very attractive Houston recruiting pool.