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Futureworld/Crazyworld?
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rabidTU2 Offline
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Post: #1
Futureworld/Crazyworld?
Here we go again with all the "expansion" talk. Some folks who troll these sites are always trying to create dissension in the ranks and it occasionally works because it occasionally happens. The system we live in has become two tiered because the money is. But lets not discuss the unfairness and inadequacies of the business of college sports right now and just look at possible scenarios form it.

The Big 12 isn't really 12 anymore and there is a push to make it that way again. So they look to the best possible candidates to replace what they lost a few short years ago - (Texas AM and Mizzou). The hottest fb schools left in the mix of conference members and independents is BYU and Houston. It now appears that BYU will push for conference inclusion and the B12 is the nearest possible targeted league. So IMO I think they will get an invite and will end up there if they want. Houston on the other hand is already in a conference - the AAC, and they have prospered in it. But the obvious result is going to be that if they get an invite, they will leave the AAC. Given that possibility, we must preplan imo. There is also an outside chance that we could lose another school from the AAC from the east like Cincy, UCONN or even UCF, even though that is less likely than Houston IMO.

So what happens? What will the strongest G5 conference (AAC) become?

Well, the best case is for nothing to occur from my seat (but don't count on it), and I'd like to address how we could keep the league strong if robbery occurs.

More Later.
(This post was last modified: 07-30-2016 12:22 PM by rabidTU2.)
07-28-2016 10:50 AM
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rabidTU2 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Futureworld/Crazyworld?
IMO the driving force behind expansion are the Texas Longhorns. Their history of being the big dog in the old Southwest Conference for decades drives the Big12 expansion this time around and imo they see this as a chance to dominate the league in the same way they did the SWC. Texas A&M not being in the league (B12) anymore took some of the luster away from the Texas dominance and now there may be a rift between the four Texas schools (UT, TT, Baylor, TCU) and the others to the north (and east). The BYU inclusion I think would be favorable to Baylor and TCU. So I see this expansion /talk/attempt as a power struggle on two fronts - the Texas schools wanting another Texan and the religious schools needing another like minded school. But expansion really doesn't need to occur since the conference championship game has now been approved. That and the fact that OU was in the final four last year shows that any extra schools isn't needed at this point. But of course, the "P Five" doesn't go into a Final Four and never will.

In the end, any non P5 school hoping to fill some void in the CFB system we now have may end up regretting their decision to move on because they will be treated as an intruder by some and an after thought by others. Programs like Vandy, Norhwestern, Purdue, Wake are still and probably always will be toward the bottom of their leagues and the move to the Big10 didn't help Nebraska much nor Mizzou's move to the SEC, nor Colorado to the PAC12.

From the POV of the AAC, again, we must prepare for the possible loss. We can stay just as strong as we are now even if we lose a team or two imo. If the loss occurs, any programs the AAC replaces should include factors like geography, following, perception, CFB and MBB tradition.

Next Up. If "that" happens, what then? Who do we rob and from whom?

More Later.
(This post was last modified: 07-30-2016 12:26 PM by rabidTU2.)
07-30-2016 11:43 AM
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Tulsafanzz Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Futureworld/Crazyworld?
Big XII Epansion was dead 2 weeks ago. Even Boren & Castiglione said so. Boren had been pro expansion, as much as anyone. I had no idea why.

Anyway, the Big XII flipped from no expansion to immediate expansion the day after the ACC announced an upcoming ACC network with ESPN. ESPN had just told the Big XII that a Big XII network wasn't feasible. This sudden expansion is a knee jerk reaction to the ACC network. They can stick it to ESPN, by making them pay full $ pay for any additions they choose.

I think there is still a lot of closed door discussions between the Big XII & ESPN on this whole situation. We may see 4 teams added next week or we may see ESPN renegotiate a Big XII contract with more $, without adding schools, IMO.
07-31-2016 03:57 PM
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rabidTU2 Offline
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RE: Futureworld/Crazyworld?
Thanks Fanzz.

I'd be very leery of expanding if I were any of the AAC teams from a program perspective. The three schools I brought up - Missouri, Nebraska and Colorado who were members of the old Big8 before moving to the Big10, SEC and PAC12 have not had much success in their new leagues. They are treated like outcasts now and their records in CFB last year were:

Nebraska - 6-7
Missouri - 5-7
Colorado - 4-9 (the extra game was at Hawaii who btw beat them 28-20)

Three really good programs historically that have become also rans in their new conferences. Sometimes the grass isn't always greener.
08-01-2016 09:37 AM
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rabidTU2 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Futureworld/Crazyworld?
So if we were to lose someone from the west - which I hope does not happen, we should look to what might be available as a repalcement from the schools that would immediately jump on board. I look at program history in CFB and MBB as the most important asset to maintain strength in the league. A school with a very good history in CFB but a poor one in MBB is still not a good choice imo. I also think there is a geographic component we need to maintain. If a western AAC school is lost, we need to maintain that - the same with an eastern school. Also we need to make sure any additions fit into the footprint of being in or near a fairly large metro area or is a nationally significant school. So here is something I'd think fits that.

If a western school is lost:

UTEP - 14 bowls/1 national MBB championship with multiple NCAA tourney games played/metro area of almost 1 million/ history of playing in CUSA with several current members/ Is in the state of Texas.

If an eastern school is lost:
(Here the possiblities get "trickier" and I'd be more inclined to fill the void with two programs instead of one).
Army (FB)
UAB (MBB)

Army FB has a couple of recognized national championships in FB and a national following similar to Navy. And the fact that navy is in the league already would be the lure as well as the fact they already play some other AAC schools.

UAB has a very good MBB tradition, has been to multiple NCAA tourneys and is in a fairly large metro area similar to our own. They also fit geographically into the void between Florida and North Carolina and are a similarly sized market.

** I have stated before that since we need another non-FB program in the conference that balances the league since Navy is a FB only school that inviting Wichita St into the league in the western AAC is a perfect fit, then the UAB/Army invite would be equal to that.

Lets remember how nice it has been having Navy FB with a national university and national following. Army would give us much of that as well. And UAB has that metropolitan footprint we would embrace.

More Later.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 11:05 AM by rabidTU2.)
08-01-2016 10:10 AM
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rabidTU2 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Futureworld/Crazyworld?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UTEP_Miners_basketball

UTEP has been to 14 total bowls and the Sun Bowl is virtually on their campus.

Army FB has won 3 national titles (in the 1940's) and have 3 Heisman winners in the record books. Like Navy, they have a national folllowing and fit the geographic footprint in the east.

UAB has multiple NCAA MBB tourney appearances (15), three sweet sixteens and an elite eight and is located in a similar sized metro area as many other AAC schools and is a perfect geographic fit imo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAB_Blazer...basketball
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 10:53 AM by rabidTU2.)
08-01-2016 10:26 AM
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rabidTU2 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Futureworld/Crazyworld?
I'm sure some will take issue with my thinking on the schools I'd push for, but the important criteria is HISTORY. That is the "seperator" between a good and bad program imo. If a program has a good history of going to the NCAA tourney and bowls and winning championships, then success is expected and losing won't be tolerated. Those programs will spend the resources to keep the success going. The fans expect it and the media waits for it. UTEP actually fits very well and the distance issue is minimal. For instance, El Paso is just a little further from Dallas than Memphis from Dallas. So if Memphis were lost, we'd still have a travel equivalent. If Houston were lost, we'd still have a Texas school to replace their loss.

And no matter what would happen in the eastern side of the conference, UAB MBB and Army FB would fit both geographically and historically.

So I'd like to start with the invite of Wichita St to the west as an "every sport replacement except FB" for Navy. The balance is then achieved in the west. If we then lose a team or even two due to the current state of affairs, we have options like those I outlined.

But once again, lets all hope cooler heads prevail and the system stays the way it currently is.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 08:33 PM by rabidTU2.)
08-01-2016 10:30 AM
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rabidTU2 Offline
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RE: Futureworld/Crazyworld?
I'm sure some good folks disagree with my selections and its not ideal, but from a program standpoint it makes sense for the league as a whole. For instance Marshall and Southern Miss are really excellent additions for FB with 12 and 21 bowls respectively, but their MBB just isn't close to what this league needs. So Miss has been to only 3 NCAA tourneys and is 0-3 in them. And Marshall has only been to 5 NCAA's and is 0-5. So when you look at UTEP or UAB in MBB in comparison, there is none imo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_M...basketball

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_T...basketball

(Compare these two with UTEP and UAB from my above post.)
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 11:01 AM by rabidTU2.)
08-03-2016 10:47 AM
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rabidTU2 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Futureworld/Crazyworld?
So adding a nationally significant school like Army and adding a MBB only university (UAB) from a large metro of over 1 million and good history if we lose an eastern school would work nicely. And then keeping a Texas presence in a part of that state where there isn't much competition for the athletic dollar, has a well rounded athletic program and is in a decently sized metro (900,000) would also fit well.

Once again, we don't want to lose any schools, but we also need to plan "just in case".
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 11:30 AM by rabidTU2.)
08-03-2016 11:19 AM
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rabidTU2 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Futureworld/Crazyworld?
Again, we need to contact Wichita St and make them a replacement for Navy in every sport except CFB.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wichita_St...basketball

The stronger the AAC is, the less chance we will be raided in the future. This has been long overdue.
(This post was last modified: 08-03-2016 08:31 PM by rabidTU2.)
08-03-2016 08:29 PM
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