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Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #1
Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete (they're not good)
By: Luke Kerr-Dineen | July 27, 2016 1:18 pm

The glitz, the glamor, the fame, the fortune; it’s not hard to understand why so many people dream of becoming professional athletes, but what are their odds of actually doing it?

They vary between the sports, of course, but according to a new study called “The Odds of Success” by Canadian Casino company Online Casino, they’re pretty very slim.

Ice hockey has the best odds — 1 in 598 for high school athletes — but even that pales in comparison to other things. Like fatal car accidents: People have a 1 in 113 chance of dying in a car crash, according to the study.

Wow, this took a dark turn. Anyway, here’s the infographic:

[Image: asset2_success_qa-1.png?w=1000]
07-27-2016 02:28 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
For later viewing, in case the infographic link above gets broken:

High School Football: 1,083,617
College Football: 72,788
Drafted to Pros in Football: 256
Odds of a US High School Athlete Making it to Pro Football: 1 in 4,233

High School Men's Basketball: 541,479
College Men's Basketball: 18,697
Drafted to Pros in Men's Basketball: 46
Odds of a US High School Athlete Making it to Pro Men's Basketball: 1 in 11,771

High School Women's Basketball: 429,504
College Women's Basketball: 16,589
Drafted to Pros in Women's Basketball: 33
Odds of a US High School Athlete Making it to Pro Women's Basketball: 1 in 13,015

High School Baseball: 486,567
College Baseball: 34,198
Drafted to Pros in Baseball: 738
Odds of a US High School Athlete Making it to Pro Baseball: 1 in 659

High School Men's Ice Hockey: 35,875
College Men's Ice Hockey: 4,071
Drafted to Pros in Men's Ice Hockey: 60
Odds of a US High School Athlete Making it to Pro Men's Ice Hockey: 1 in 598

High School Men's Soccer: 432,569
College Men's Soccer: 24,477
Drafted to Pros in Men's Soccer: 75
Odds of a US High School Athlete Making it to Pro Men's Soccer: 1 in 5,768
07-27-2016 02:29 PM
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WKUFan518 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
Don't show this chart to the parents in my son's tee ball league....Most of the parents act like their son is signing a contract tomorrow to MLB....
07-27-2016 02:31 PM
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Eagleholic Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
At my age, I think my odds are considerably worse than the info on the chart indicates.
07-27-2016 02:45 PM
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TribeNiner Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
Problem is that this only shows "drafted." We all know that more than 46 players make the NBA in a year and plenty of UFDA join NFL teams. I suppose it's too difficult/time consuming to track who makes a roster for the first game rather than just drafted. And for something like basketball, think about all of the opportunities for good pay overseas- that would, I'm sure, greatly change the numbers.

ETA: I also wonder if the number of high school athletes is total athletes, or just graduating/senior athletes. If it's total athletes, then that's not an apples to apples comparison when you consider that you have 4 years' worth of chances to be drafted by the NBA (not just one draft). If it's just graduating seniors that are athletes, then that's a lot of graduating athletes every year (for instance, assuming 3 seniors per basketball team would mean there are more than 180,000 high school basketball teams - or more than 3,600 basketball teams per state).
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2016 03:26 PM by TribeNiner.)
07-27-2016 03:21 PM
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MUHERD76 Offline
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Post: #6
Re: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
Any idea what the odds are for Golf?
07-27-2016 03:24 PM
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bit_9 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
(07-27-2016 02:31 PM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  Don't show this chart to the parents in my son's tee ball league....Most of the parents act like their son is signing a contract tomorrow to MLB....

Haha, just this week I signed up to co-coach my sons tball team. He just turned 4... should be an interesting experience.
07-27-2016 03:51 PM
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MTPiKapp Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
(07-27-2016 03:21 PM)TribeNiner Wrote:  Problem is that this only shows "drafted." We all know that more than 46 players make the NBA in a year and plenty of UFDA join NFL teams. I suppose it's too difficult/time consuming to track who makes a roster for the first game rather than just drafted. And for something like basketball, think about all of the opportunities for good pay overseas- that would, I'm sure, greatly change the numbers.

ETA: I also wonder if the number of high school athletes is total athletes, or just graduating/senior athletes. If it's total athletes, then that's not an apples to apples comparison when you consider that you have 4 years' worth of chances to be drafted by the NBA (not just one draft). If it's just graduating seniors that are athletes, then that's a lot of graduating athletes every year (for instance, assuming 3 seniors per basketball team would mean there are more than 180,000 high school basketball teams - or more than 3,600 basketball teams per state).

Right, there are(traditionally) four opportunities to enter the draft as a basketball player, at least three times as a baseball player, at least twice as a football player...

Certainly doesn't undermine the whole thing, but I do agree that it's rather oversimplified.
07-27-2016 03:54 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
(07-27-2016 03:54 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  
(07-27-2016 03:21 PM)TribeNiner Wrote:  Problem is that this only shows "drafted." We all know that more than 46 players make the NBA in a year and plenty of UFDA join NFL teams. I suppose it's too difficult/time consuming to track who makes a roster for the first game rather than just drafted. And for something like basketball, think about all of the opportunities for good pay overseas- that would, I'm sure, greatly change the numbers.

ETA: I also wonder if the number of high school athletes is total athletes, or just graduating/senior athletes. If it's total athletes, then that's not an apples to apples comparison when you consider that you have 4 years' worth of chances to be drafted by the NBA (not just one draft). If it's just graduating seniors that are athletes, then that's a lot of graduating athletes every year (for instance, assuming 3 seniors per basketball team would mean there are more than 180,000 high school basketball teams - or more than 3,600 basketball teams per state).

Right, there are(traditionally) four opportunities to enter the draft as a basketball player, at least three times as a baseball player, at least twice as a football player...

Certainly doesn't undermine the whole thing, but I do agree that it's rather oversimplified.

I agree, but moving the numbers some either way doesn't really undermine the true underlying point of the information: Athletes would be best served to always choose a college first to obtain the best degree they can and one that they are actually qualified for (don't go over your head where you won't graduate at all), then make sure to GET that degree when they're in college (lay off spending all of their time at the player's lounge and actually hit the books.) If somehow, they can also become a professional athlete to boot, kudos!
07-27-2016 04:15 PM
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
I think the biggest issue these days is high schoolers "committing to the coach, not the school."
07-27-2016 04:19 PM
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MTPiKapp Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
(07-27-2016 04:15 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(07-27-2016 03:54 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  
(07-27-2016 03:21 PM)TribeNiner Wrote:  Problem is that this only shows "drafted." We all know that more than 46 players make the NBA in a year and plenty of UFDA join NFL teams. I suppose it's too difficult/time consuming to track who makes a roster for the first game rather than just drafted. And for something like basketball, think about all of the opportunities for good pay overseas- that would, I'm sure, greatly change the numbers.

ETA: I also wonder if the number of high school athletes is total athletes, or just graduating/senior athletes. If it's total athletes, then that's not an apples to apples comparison when you consider that you have 4 years' worth of chances to be drafted by the NBA (not just one draft). If it's just graduating seniors that are athletes, then that's a lot of graduating athletes every year (for instance, assuming 3 seniors per basketball team would mean there are more than 180,000 high school basketball teams - or more than 3,600 basketball teams per state).

Right, there are(traditionally) four opportunities to enter the draft as a basketball player, at least three times as a baseball player, at least twice as a football player...

Certainly doesn't undermine the whole thing, but I do agree that it's rather oversimplified.

I agree, but moving the numbers some either way doesn't really undermine the true underlying point of the information: Athletes would be best served to always choose a college first to obtain the best degree they can and one that they are actually qualified for (don't go over your head where you won't graduate at all), then make sure to GET that degree when they're in college (lay off spending all of their time at the player's lounge and actually hit the books.) If somehow, they can also become a professional athlete to boot, kudos!

Being a professional athlete should probably remain a "dream" rather than a "plan" until you've signed your second contract in most cases...
07-27-2016 04:20 PM
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Herd-in-ATL Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
On the strong advice of my Doctor and Life Insurance agent, at 54 I'm sticking with amateur athlete status.
07-27-2016 04:29 PM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
I'd be interested to know what they mean by pro in each sport. Does the D-League count for the NBA, minors for baseball, practice squad for NFL, minors for NHL, minors for soccer? You're obviously getting compensated in those leagues, but not nearly as high as the top leagues. What do they define as pro for golf/tennis - assuming that would include not only PGA/European tours for golf and ATP for tennis, but also all the lesser tours/circuits? What about people that go play basketball/baseball/hockey/soccer sports overseas?
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2016 04:30 PM by westsidewolf1989.)
07-27-2016 04:29 PM
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GreenSteve Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
Of course the odds of becoming a professional athlete on ANY NFL team in Florida are considerably higher...

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07-27-2016 04:53 PM
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banker Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Here are your odds of becoming a professional athlete
Undrafted free agents in football often make teams by displacing late round draft picks, so the net is much different than the number drafted.
07-27-2016 05:06 PM
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