(07-24-2016 01:25 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 12:32 PM)Tigersmoke3 Wrote:  If Memphis, UC, UH leave a quick pick up of SDSU, Fresno, CSU,Airforce, would be considered genius by the AAC. They will have increased markets while killing off any competition for the NY6 spot. I would think that Aresco would actually ask for a renegotiation. The ACC will be giving up some time slots along with some open slots from the big10 new contract that the ACC was supposed to fill. It appears that espn is already working this plan with an eye on the AAC stepping up. I think the big12 sees this and intends to show espn by acquiring them to pay them for at least 3 of those teams at top dollar and keep most of the money for themselves while increasing inventory for another shot at forming a network.

I agree with your theory Smoke, either the AAC or MWC should use this opportunity to cripple the other. Question which commish will make the move. AAC grabs the Teams you mentioned or MWC goes after Memphis, Tulane, SMU and NAVY for football only. Have CSU, Air Force, Boise & Utah St as one division the others in the west. There is really no schools left that moves tube markers in MAC/CUSA/SB that gets the AAC or MWC to that mythical P6 slot.

When the Big East took the CUSA schools there was the same grumbling. So much so that the C7 took their balk and left. 4 years later those programs invested and performed enough to hear people whisper the words power conference in connection with the AAC. They just have to do it again.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

(07-24-2016 09:14 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  After discussing UTEP and Rice last December, the MW TV contract wouldn't be increased and won't be even if they added UH and SMU. The MW presidents are quite content with the current 12 team setup. I'm sure it would be discussed but with the CFP per conference payout @ $10 million, the TV contract threshold is fairly high bar to cross.
Any expansion by the MW won't be really an option until 2019 when the current TV contract ends in 2020.

^^^This.

The only school that really moves the needle for the MWC is BYU. But they aren't coming back even if the Big 12 snubs them. So the whole Big 12 expansion drama is just off-season entertainment from an MWC perspective, unless the Big 12 surprises us by taking Colorado State.

(07-24-2016 06:25 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 09:14 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  After discussing UTEP and Rice last December, the MW TV contract wouldn't be increased and won't be even if they added UH and SMU. The MW presidents are quite content with the current 12 team setup. I'm sure it would be discussed but with the CFP per conference payout @ $10 million, the TV contract threshold is fairly high bar to cross.
Any expansion by the MW won't be really an option until 2019 when the current TV contract ends in 2020.

^^^This.

The only school that really moves the needle for the MWC is BYU. But they aren't coming back even if the Big 12 snubs them. So the whole Big 12 expansion drama is just off-season entertainment from an MWC perspective, unless the Big 12 surprises us by taking Colorado State.

A depleted AAC will help the MWC though.

Less competition on the field and a greater chance of a coast-2-coast TV deal with the AAC if they are more desperate.

(07-24-2016 09:07 AM)MJG Wrote:  They could but the TV contract would need to be changed Houston isn't kissing Boise's @ss .

Agreed. The MWC deal would have to become less Boise-oriented. That could happen as well, if the MWC could sign a more lucrative overall deal thanks to AAC additions.

(07-25-2016 07:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 09:07 AM)MJG Wrote:  They could but the TV contract would need to be changed Houston isn't kissing Boise's @ss .

Agreed. The MWC deal would have to become less Boise-oriented. That could happen as well, if the MWC could sign a more lucrative overall deal thanks to AAC additions.

It has beginning to head toward that direction.
http://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/.../74767046/

Because the Mountain Division teams were guaranteed games against Boise State, and thus guaranteed more money in the television bonus system, an amendment to the system was voted upon by the member schools last year in which all bonus money accrued against Boise State would be pooled and split evenly among the MW’s other 10 teams (this doesn’t include Hawaii, which isn’t eligible for bonus TV money). Boise State’s take was unaffected.

If the clause is enforced that the bonus applied to network with 90 million+ households and now the ESPN is now in less that than, the bonus may be come null and void unless a game is on the OTA channels

My guess is that the Big12 expands to 14 with UH, UC, Memphis and BYU. The AAC could back fill with Rice, NIU and UMass.

(07-24-2016 11:32 AM)k5james Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 11:23 AM)Tigersmoke3 Wrote:  Pure geography is our friend, TV ratings have and will always favor the AAC. If our loses happen to trigger a contract renegotiation then I say great. Grab SDSU,UNLV,CSU,FSU who all would get instant pay increases and real espn exposure simply by getting away from that horrible Boise state deal. This would also cement the AAC as the true tweener league REMBER NEW prime time slots that the mwc could never get

The MWC deal is terrible but the AAC might be staring down the barrel at something worse...

It really doesn't matter what the AAC teams are looking at. Moving from the AAC to the Mountain West is virtually impossible for AAC teams to do. The AAC exit fee is $10 million. There is just nothing in the Mountain West that's going to be worth paying 10 million for. On the other hand, the MW exit fee is just one million.

Thus, if there's going to be an airport meeting, it's going to consist of six or eight Mountain West teams moving to the AAC---- not the other way around. Also, keep in mind, the teams exiting from the American athletic conference will be leaving behind an exit fee of at least $10 million each. That means there will be a nice 30 to 40 million dollar fund to help pay the $1 million a team Mountain West exit fee. If the teams exiting the AAC want to leave before 27 months, they could be leaving behind 20 million each. That means there will be some money to help cover other expenses. Also, there will be lots of left behind credits in the AAC. It just makes more sense to use the AAC as the cross country vehicle.

Yes. MWC could take all the remaining members from the AAC and then change its name from Mountain West Conference to American Athletic conference.

(07-25-2016 09:16 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 11:32 AM)k5james Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 11:23 AM)Tigersmoke3 Wrote:  Pure geography is our friend, TV ratings have and will always favor the AAC. If our loses happen to trigger a contract renegotiation then I say great. Grab SDSU,UNLV,CSU,FSU who all would get instant pay increases and real espn exposure simply by getting away from that horrible Boise state deal. This would also cement the AAC as the true tweener league REMBER NEW prime time slots that the mwc could never get

The MWC deal is terrible but the AAC might be staring down the barrel at something worse...

It really doesn't matter what the AAC teams are looking at. Moving from the AAC to the Mountain West is virtually impossible for AAC teams to do. The AAC exit fee is $10 million. There is just nothing in the Mountain West that's going to be worth paying 10 million for. On the other hand, the MW exit fee is just one million.

Has anyone actually paid a full exit fee before? Seems like in most cases, the fee actually paid is about 65% of the stated amount.

That's still a lot of money for a G5 school, no question, but not as prohibitive as $10m.

The AAC could be in a lot of trouble, depending on who and how many get taken by the Big 12. TV could go down to next to nothing, attendance, everything. And none of those are any good right now to start with.

I know that if USF doesn't get a bid, I sure hope the Big 12 looks west, not east, for expansion.