(07-25-2016 02:37 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 09:06 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The most important thing for the AAC's future is where the TV contract is going.

The AAC has been on track to pick up an enhanced contract with Big East level monies if it holds together.

Wha??????

The AAC ***might*** get a bump, but it won't get anywhere near "Big East" money...even though they (the AAC) sponsors FB and the BE doesn't.

I think most people are thinking that the AAC was likely to get a bump into the $5-6 Million/School/Year with the next contract.

That's what I was thinking.

(07-25-2016 02:50 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If Houston or any other western team leaves I would think Rice is a lock. Too much history and commonality between the majority of AAC west and Rice to leave them in CUSA

I agree, in theory at least. I do wonder if a raided AAC and a 14 team Big 12 paves the way for UTEP/Rice to the MWC though, especially if its BYU and 3 AAC teams.

(07-24-2016 01:09 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  If the Big XII invites Houston, Cincinnati and Memphis, there are two ways to look at the remnants according to the map. It will either be an east coast little brother of the ACC with SMU, Tulane and Tulsa as western outliers OR a southern little brother of the SEC with northeastern outliers in Navy, Temple and UConn. Whoever the real power in the conference is will determine its direction and given that Aresco is in charge, I will guess that they will attempt to fortify its eastern identity.

To me, it's logical geographically for Rice to replace Houston, USM to replace Memphis and Marshall to replace Cincinnati. But I don't believe geography will drive the replacements. Considering the fact that UConn will definitely be looking for a way out (either to the ACC, a future invitation to the Big XII should someone leave or independence), I think that ECU, UCF and USF should align with SMU, Tulane and Tulsa to form a more southern conference identity since that is where football is and will be king. Trying to appease UConn with schools like UMass will never produce a satisfied UConn and will only be adding a school that hasn't given any indication that they can produce D1-crowds on game day. Those southern schools may not have a strong basketball history, but they have all played some good football at times and emphasize their baseball programs, so i think they should add similar schools to establish their conference identity. Adding any schools of their choice from southeastern states would go a long way toward achieving that identity and would make any future additions easier to make as well.

I agree that geographically speaking, Marhall replaces Cincy and Rice could well replace Houston particularly given former rivalries in the CUSA (though Rice should also be in play for the MWC). However, I never quite associated Southern Miss geographically with replacing Memphis. It certainly makes sense but I wondered about MTSU instead. They are a "lower" school in the hierarchy but would also replace Memphis with Nashville-ish.

You're analysis is pretty solid. What schools fit that football first with decent baseball program category?

Also, does the AAC really expand back to 12 or leave it at 10 and keep their championship game?

(If its BYU, Colorado State, Boise, and Houston to the Big 12, for instance, they would need to expand by one to get back to 12, but if its BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UConn, they would really only need to expand by 1 to be back at 10. This option also makes sense because despite rivalries, Marshall and Southern Miss would join Memphis as the low end academically. No offense meant to either school, but neither is ranked in USN or ARW, and neither is "highest research" - USM is "higher" and Marshall is a "large research instituion")

(07-25-2016 02:59 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 02:50 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If Houston or any other western team leaves I would think Rice is a lock. Too much history and commonality between the majority of AAC west and Rice to leave them in CUSA

I agree, in theory at least. I do wonder if a raided AAC and a 14 team Big 12 paves the way for UTEP/Rice to the MWC though, especially if its BYU and 3 AAC teams.

I doubt it. MWC is good at 12. No need to rock the boat. If AAC loses Memphis and Houston, Rice and UTEP would slide in those slots very nicely. Cincy would be tougher to replace, ODU is not ready quite yet, as would UCF and USF because FAU and FIU are not quite ready either.

(07-25-2016 03:07 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 02:59 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 02:50 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If Houston or any other western team leaves I would think Rice is a lock. Too much history and commonality between the majority of AAC west and Rice to leave them in CUSA

I agree, in theory at least. I do wonder if a raided AAC and a 14 team Big 12 paves the way for UTEP/Rice to the MWC though, especially if its BYU and 3 AAC teams.

I doubt it. MWC is good at 12. No need to rock the boat. If AAC loses Memphis and Houston, Rice and UTEP would slide in those slots very nicely. Cincy would be tougher to replace, ODU is not ready quite yet, as would UCF and USF because FAU and FIU are not quite ready either.

MWC probably escapes unscathed; worse case, they lose Colorado State and replace with UTEP or Rice (or nobody if Hawaii leaves/drops football).

AAC would take Southern Miss, Marshall or (homer alert) ODU before UTEP. Possibly Charlotte as well. UTEP's too far away unless the AAC wants to try the western thing again.

Rice seems like a pretty certain yes from the AAC if Houston's gone and an absolute no if they aren't.

Weird how the Florida schools aren't generating much buzz at all. Had this gone down two years ago, at least the message board types would be tripping over themselves to tout UCF. They're still the same school with the same facilities in the same city they were before, they just had a crappy football season last year. We're a fickle bunch.

(07-25-2016 03:07 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 02:59 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 02:50 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If Houston or any other western team leaves I would think Rice is a lock. Too much history and commonality between the majority of AAC west and Rice to leave them in CUSA

I agree, in theory at least. I do wonder if a raided AAC and a 14 team Big 12 paves the way for UTEP/Rice to the MWC though, especially if its BYU and 3 AAC teams.

I doubt it. MWC is good at 12. No need to rock the boat. If AAC loses Memphis and Houston, Rice and UTEP would slide in those slots very nicely. Cincy would be tougher to replace, ODU is not ready quite yet, as would UCF and USF because FAU and FIU are not quite ready either.

I would hope so. Rice needs to make a move up this round, even if it is only up to the AAC. I doubt it will be Memphis considering the other schools the XII is looking at, so Rice would also have them to compete with.

(07-25-2016 02:25 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 01:09 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  If the Big XII invites Houston, Cincinnati and Memphis, there are two ways to look at the remnants according to the map. It will either be an east coast little brother of the ACC with SMU, Tulane and Tulsa as western outliers OR a southern little brother of the SEC with northeastern outliers in Navy, Temple and UConn. Whoever the real power in the conference is will determine its direction and given that Aresco is in charge, I will guess that they will attempt to fortify its eastern identity.

To me, it's logical geographically for Rice to replace Houston, USM to replace Memphis and Marshall to replace Cincinnati. But I don't believe geography will drive the replacements. Considering the fact that UConn will definitely be looking for a way out (either to the ACC, a future invitation to the Big XII should someone leave or independence), I think that ECU, UCF and USF should align with SMU, Tulane and Tulsa to form a more southern conference identity since that is where football is and will be king. Trying to appease UConn with schools like UMass will never produce a satisfied UConn and will only be adding a school that hasn't given any indication that they can produce D1-crowds on game day. Those southern schools may not have a strong basketball history, but they have all played some good football at times and emphasize their baseball programs, so i think they should add similar schools to establish their conference identity. Adding any schools of their choice from southeastern states would go a long way toward achieving that identity and would make any future additions easier to make as well.

If the Big 12 takes Cincinnati, Memphis and Houston, and leaves Connecticut in the AAC, I would look for Connecticut to apply for membership in the Big East and stay in the American for football only (or go independent in football if the American doesn't accept that). They might even consider taking a shot at a non-football membership in the ACC.

I know it sounds crazy, but I also heard that the ACC was considering offering UConn a BB only slot. Didn't hear anything about the timing, though.

(07-25-2016 03:23 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 03:07 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 02:59 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 02:50 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If Houston or any other western team leaves I would think Rice is a lock. Too much history and commonality between the majority of AAC west and Rice to leave them in CUSA

I agree, in theory at least. I do wonder if a raided AAC and a 14 team Big 12 paves the way for UTEP/Rice to the MWC though, especially if its BYU and 3 AAC teams.

I doubt it. MWC is good at 12. No need to rock the boat. If AAC loses Memphis and Houston, Rice and UTEP would slide in those slots very nicely. Cincy would be tougher to replace, ODU is not ready quite yet, as would UCF and USF because FAU and FIU are not quite ready either.

MWC probably escapes unscathed; worse case, they lose Colorado State and replace with UTEP or Rice (or nobody if Hawaii leaves/drops football).

AAC would take Southern Miss, Marshall or (homer alert) ODU before UTEP. Possibly Charlotte as well. UTEP's too far away unless the AAC wants to try the western thing again.

Rice seems like a pretty certain yes from the AAC if Houston's gone and an absolute no if they aren't.

Weird how the Florida schools aren't generating much buzz at all. Had this gone down two years ago, at least the message board types would be tripping over themselves to tout UCF. They're still the same school with the same facilities in the same city they were before, they just had a crappy football season last year. We're a fickle bunch.

Maybe on USM, but you gotta think about western replacements. If its Houston and Memphis you are trying to replace, Rice and UTEP slide in nicely with USM a possibility. Divisions are almost like mini conferences, particularly if there is not easy candidate to flip divisions. If it is Cincy you are trying to replace ODU and Marshall make more since with UMass in there too depending on what UConn and Temple are thinking.

Its an easy fix. You add the two best football teams in the eastern G5. Then you add Umass to keep UConn happy and add VCU all sports to offset Navy FB. NIU, Toledo/Ohio, UMass and VCU BBall. You are now still one of the strongest G5 conferences.

The worst case scenario is for the Big XII to take four members, three of the AAC top programs that keep the media contract intact as-is, and BYU, the chief replacement to retain revenue with a backfill. BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UConn/USF/Temple pretty much nukes the AAC, and I suspect you will see some schools (probably Tulsa, maybe SMU) lobby to move west to the MWC.

And were that to happen, maybe you see Navy split. That media deal is cooked at that point.

(07-25-2016 03:38 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 02:25 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 01:09 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  If the Big XII invites Houston, Cincinnati and Memphis, there are two ways to look at the remnants according to the map. It will either be an east coast little brother of the ACC with SMU, Tulane and Tulsa as western outliers OR a southern little brother of the SEC with northeastern outliers in Navy, Temple and UConn. Whoever the real power in the conference is will determine its direction and given that Aresco is in charge, I will guess that they will attempt to fortify its eastern identity.

To me, it's logical geographically for Rice to replace Houston, USM to replace Memphis and Marshall to replace Cincinnati. But I don't believe geography will drive the replacements. Considering the fact that UConn will definitely be looking for a way out (either to the ACC, a future invitation to the Big XII should someone leave or independence), I think that ECU, UCF and USF should align with SMU, Tulane and Tulsa to form a more southern conference identity since that is where football is and will be king. Trying to appease UConn with schools like UMass will never produce a satisfied UConn and will only be adding a school that hasn't given any indication that they can produce D1-crowds on game day. Those southern schools may not have a strong basketball history, but they have all played some good football at times and emphasize their baseball programs, so i think they should add similar schools to establish their conference identity. Adding any schools of their choice from southeastern states would go a long way toward achieving that identity and would make any future additions easier to make as well.

If the Big 12 takes Cincinnati, Memphis and Houston, and leaves Connecticut in the AAC, I would look for Connecticut to apply for membership in the Big East and stay in the American for football only (or go independent in football if the American doesn't accept that). They might even consider taking a shot at a non-football membership in the ACC.

I know it sounds crazy, but I also heard that the ACC was considering offering UConn a BB only slot. Didn't hear anything about the timing, though.

I must be the source because only out of my mouth I have heard that idea.

(07-25-2016 03:48 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  Its an easy fix. You add the two best football teams in the eastern G5. Then you add Umass to keep UConn happy and add VCU all sports to offset Navy FB. NIU, Toledo/Ohio, UMass and VCU BBall. You are now still one of the strongest G5 conferences.

If I were the AAC I would go with Ohio, ODU and NIU FB-Only.

Ohio and ODU have the best basketball support in the MAC and CUSA respectively. That matters to the AAC. Also two very good football recruiting states.

NIU-FB only for their Chicago media market, strong ratings to help the TV deal.

Then the hit in hoops is not so severe with Ohio/ODU solid bb schools for the AAC. 12 FB schools and 10 all sports is reasonable.

(07-25-2016 05:00 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 03:48 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  Its an easy fix. You add the two best football teams in the eastern G5. Then you add Umass to keep UConn happy and add VCU all sports to offset Navy FB. NIU, Toledo/Ohio, UMass and VCU BBall. You are now still one of the strongest G5 conferences.

If I were the AAC I would go with Ohio, ODU and NIU FB-Only.

Ohio and ODU have the best basketball support in the MAC and CUSA respectively. That matters to the AAC. Also two very good football recruiting states.

NIU-FB only for their Chicago media market, strong ratings to help the TV deal.

Then the hit in hoops is not so severe with Ohio/ODU solid bb schools for the AAC. 12 FB schools and 10 all sports is reasonable.

Where does NIU put its other sports? Presumably Horizon?

(07-23-2016 02:43 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(07-23-2016 02:09 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  

(07-23-2016 01:57 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  If we lose both Houston & Cincy I'd support Rice and USM as replacements. If the AAC loses 4 schools, I would start a campaign to get ECU to go independent with Olympic sports going to the A-10. Maybe any of Temple, Memphis, and UCONN (if not taken) would come over with us. Tulsa and Tulane would.
Cheers!

Just curious how do you propose to convince the A-10 to take ECU in that situation? The A10 is a basketball first league and that is certainly not ECUs focus.

It would be a tough sell for sure. If the AAC loses 4 then maybe the leftovers can grab a UMASS and an Old Dominion and have a new 8 team Olympic sports only league like the Big East or A-10. ECU just has too much to lose from a football standpoint to be associated with lesser football schools. We have a P5 stadium and P5 support/attendance. We can get home and home football games to fill an Indy season. Just look at our future schedules. Loaded with P5 H&H's. Here are regional schools we have history with that we can schedule regularly with an independent schedule:
1.WVU
2.V Tech
3. NC St
4. Wake
5. Duke
6. UNC
7. Marshall
8. Charlotte
9. App St
10.Old Dominion
11.a road $ game vs the SEC
12.FCS team

ECU as an Indy? Talk about program suicide. First all other sports could not survive as Indy so ECU would be looking at accepting a much lesser conference for those, SBC most likely, Basketball isn't strong enough to interest A10 (their bread and butter). For football it would always be stuck in a leftover bowl of lesser quality than the AAC. Sadly ECU like the rest of us is probably stuck on the outside looking in at the P5 conferences.

(07-25-2016 05:16 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 05:00 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 03:48 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  Its an easy fix. You add the two best football teams in the eastern G5. Then you add Umass to keep UConn happy and add VCU all sports to offset Navy FB. NIU, Toledo/Ohio, UMass and VCU BBall. You are now still one of the strongest G5 conferences.

If I were the AAC I would go with Ohio, ODU and NIU FB-Only.

Ohio and ODU have the best basketball support in the MAC and CUSA respectively. That matters to the AAC. Also two very good football recruiting states.

NIU-FB only for their Chicago media market, strong ratings to help the TV deal.

Then the hit in hoops is not so severe with Ohio/ODU solid bb schools for the AAC. 12 FB schools and 10 all sports is reasonable.

Where does NIU put its other sports? Presumably Horizon?

They can stick their other sports in the Summit to be in there with Western Illinois.

FB-Only is super easy for NIU with both the Summit and Horizon in their backyard.

(07-25-2016 02:16 PM)ken d Wrote:  So what happens if the AAC were to lose Houston, Cincy, Memphis and ECU to the Big XII? Look at what's left:

UConn
Temple
Navy (FB only)
USF
UCF
Tulane
SMU
Tulsa

That's a train wreck. Absolutely no cohesion or compatibility of interests or goals. It's hard for me to see how you fix that.

lol. I agree---but its not like there was some sort of geographic cohesion or identity before.

Frankly, the best bet for the remains is to have a quiet airport meeting with the best 8 MW schools. It would essentially be a merger of the MW and AAC with the bottom 4 MW schools left off. Cut a little fat, create an identity as the first nationwide conference. It would be a solid property for a national sports channel like ESPN.

The conference would have good football, good basketball, and good baseball. It could control costs via the use of divisions to minimize cross country travel. There would be a little crossover, with most of the play being within divisions.

Bottom line---it would have a true unique identity. It would be the winner of the G5 access bowl most every year. It would be a multi-bid basketball conference (it would probably spawn 6 or more bids a year). It would also be home to excellent baseball and great womens basketball.

Such a conference can only be formed by using the AAC shell. The exit fees are too high for AAC schools to join the MW. It has to be the AAC adding MW teams. The other 4 MW teams can rebuild saving Idaho from going FCS. They can grab NM St, Wichita, and one more to fill out the MW. NoDak would even get to see if any Big Sky teams are really interested in moving up as the last train to FBS in the west leaves the station.

(07-25-2016 02:37 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 09:06 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The most important thing for the AAC's future is where the TV contract is going.

The AAC has been on track to pick up an enhanced contract with Big East level monies if it holds together.

Wha??????

The AAC ***might*** get a bump, but it won't get anywhere near "Big East" money...even though they (the AAC) sponsors FB and the BE doesn't.

I think most people are thinking that the AAC was likely to get a bump into the $5-6 Million/School/Year with the next contract.

I think he is talking about the current Big East (or possibly the old expired Big East tv contract, which paid about 4 or 5 million per team).

(07-25-2016 06:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 02:37 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(07-24-2016 09:06 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The most important thing for the AAC's future is where the TV contract is going.

The AAC has been on track to pick up an enhanced contract with Big East level monies if it holds together.

Wha??????

The AAC ***might*** get a bump, but it won't get anywhere near "Big East" money...even though they (the AAC) sponsors FB and the BE doesn't.

I think most people are thinking that the AAC was likely to get a bump into the $5-6 Million/School/Year with the next contract.

I think he is talking about the current Big East (or possibly the old expired Big East tv contract, which paid about 4 or 5 million per team).

Yep.

(07-25-2016 06:51 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 02:16 PM)ken d Wrote:  So what happens if the AAC were to lose Houston, Cincy, Memphis and ECU to the Big XII? Look at what's left:

UConn
Temple
Navy (FB only)
USF
UCF
Tulane
SMU
Tulsa

That's a train wreck. Absolutely no cohesion or compatibility of interests or goals. It's hard for me to see how you fix that.

lol. I agree---but its not like there was some sort of geographic cohesion or identity before.

Frankly, the best bet for the remains is to have a quiet airport meeting with the best 8 MW schools. It would essentially be a merger of the MW and AAC with the bottom 4 MW schools left off. Cut a little fat, create an identity as the first nationwide conference. It would be a solid property for a national sports channel like ESPN.

The conference would have good football, good basketball, and good baseball. It could control costs via the use of divisions to minimize cross country travel. There would be a little crossover, with most of the play being within divisions.

Bottom line---it would have a true unique identity. It would be the winner of the G5 access bowl most every year. It would be a multi-bid basketball conference (it would probably spawn 6 or more bids a year). It would also be home to excellent baseball and great womens basketball.

Such a conference can only be formed by using the AAC shell. The exit fees are too high for AAC schools to join the MW. It has to be the AAC adding MW teams. The other 4 MW teams can rebuild saving Idaho from going FCS. They can grab NM St, Wichita, and one more to fill out the MW. NoDak would even get to see if any Big Sky teams are really interested in moving up as the last train to FBS in the west leaves the station.

FYI. Here are the new MW exit fees. Subparagraph (a) is giving a 1 year notice. BSU addition requirement just expired.

"Effective June 6, 2011 and thereafter any notice of resignation given by any member shall be subject to the notice dates referenced in subparagraph (a) above and the following: (i) the resigning member shall forfeit its final year of revenue payable no later than the Effective Date; (ii) if the resigning member gives notice after the established "Notice Date", the resigning member shall forfeit its final year of revenue and shall pay to the Conference a sum of five million dollars ($5,000,000) OR double the amount of the final year’s revenue, whichever is greater. All monies shall be paid no later than the Notice Date. Additional requirements applicable to Boise State University (BSU) are set forth in the BSU Membership Term Sheet kept on file in the Conference office. The additional requirements expire July 1, 2016. (Revised June 2011, January 2013) "

Am I crazy?!? Will or can anyone explain to me why the AAC won't have the ACC'S old time slots not to mention the extra big10 slots that the ACC was going to slide into. The mwc can't cover those if they wanted to because of geography and I would think those spots in tail at least a decent contract right? Why oh why would anyone American team go to the empty no one cares mwc. I still think espn has a fascination with the AAC