Houston 1/1
South Florida 7/2
Cincinnati 11/2
Temple 15/2
Memphis 11/1
Navy 11/1
UConn 20/1
East Carolina 33/1
Tulsa 33/1
SMU 75/1
Central Florida 100/1
Tulane 200/1
Pretty interesting stuff. IMO the best play would be with UCF. Veteran qb surrounded by lots of talent. 50/50 odds are too high for Houston. Looks like Tulsa and ECU have there work cut out for them. The Memphis and Navy reflect teams that lost a qb. I think this makes a lot of sense.
These odds have to reflect a teams ability to win their division, so I assume that the oddsmakers find UH and USF with the best chances to win their divisions. UH probably has an easier road to winning their division: they kept their coach, they recruited well, did not lose significant talent and beat FSU in a major bowl game handily, so 50/50 odds seems acceptable, maybe even light. USF looked great in the 2nd half of the season, but the oddsmakers see their road as tougher. Why? The next 2 teams listed are in the East, so the oddsmakers see the East as tougher this year.
(07-14-2016 08:21 AM)vick mike Wrote: These odds have to reflect a teams ability to win their division, so I assume that the oddsmakers find UH and USF with the best chances to win their divisions. UH probably has an easier road to winning their division: they kept their coach, they recruited well, did not lose significant talent and beat FSU in a major bowl game handily, so 50/50 odds seems acceptable, maybe even light. USF looked great in the 2nd half of the season, but the oddsmakers see their road as tougher. Why? The next 2 teams listed are in the East, so the oddsmakers see the East as tougher this year.
Do they view the East as tougher, or do they believe there's more parity between the top East teams? With more parity that gives more teams a better chance to win their division and thus a better chance to win the conference. Maybe UH is higher because they have more separation between them and the rest of the West.
Maybe it has to do with the East's strength and less parity in the West. Who knows.
(07-14-2016 08:21 AM)vick mike Wrote: These odds have to reflect a teams ability to win their division, so I assume that the oddsmakers find UH and USF with the best chances to win their divisions. UH probably has an easier road to winning their division: they kept their coach, they recruited well, did not lose significant talent and beat FSU in a major bowl game handily, so 50/50 odds seems acceptable, maybe even light. USF looked great in the 2nd half of the season, but the oddsmakers see their road as tougher. Why? The next 2 teams listed are in the East, so the oddsmakers see the East as tougher this year.
Yep. Unlike rosewater, you seem to understand simple math.
(07-14-2016 08:21 AM)vick mike Wrote: These odds have to reflect a teams ability to win their division, so I assume that the oddsmakers find UH and USF with the best chances to win their divisions. UH probably has an easier road to winning their division: they kept their coach, they recruited well, did not lose significant talent and beat FSU in a major bowl game handily, so 50/50 odds seems acceptable, maybe even light. USF looked great in the 2nd half of the season, but the oddsmakers see their road as tougher. Why? The next 2 teams listed are in the East, so the oddsmakers see the East as tougher this year.
Yep. Unlike rosewater, you seem to understand simple math.
Kronke, You do not play a balanced schedule. It is not like the winner of the west is the team that beats all the western teams. Some have to play the more difficult teams in the east while others get to skate. I think there is at least a 30 percent Houston does not win the west and a 50 percent chance you do not win the championship game hence a 35 percent chance to win the championship. So stick it.
(07-14-2016 08:21 AM)vick mike Wrote: These odds have to reflect a teams ability to win their division, so I assume that the oddsmakers find UH and USF with the best chances to win their divisions. UH probably has an easier road to winning their division: they kept their coach, they recruited well, did not lose significant talent and beat FSU in a major bowl game handily, so 50/50 odds seems acceptable, maybe even light. USF looked great in the 2nd half of the season, but the oddsmakers see their road as tougher. Why? The next 2 teams listed are in the East, so the oddsmakers see the East as tougher this year.
Yep. Unlike rosewater, you seem to understand simple math.
Kronke, You do not play a balanced schedule. It is not like the winner of the west is the team that beats all the western teams. Some have to play the more difficult teams in the east while others get to skate. I think there is at least a 30 percent Houston does not win the west and a 50 percent chance you do not win the championship game hence a 35 percent chance to win the championship. So stick it.
I'm open to examining that more closely, as it further proves my point.
We play @Cincy, vs. UConn, vs. UCF.
Navy has vs. UConn, @ECU, @USF.
Memphis has vs. Temple, vs. USF, @Cincy
I think you'd agree that Memphis has by far the toughest draw, so let's eliminate them. Next is Navy. Our UConn games cancel out. Which is more difficult, @Cincy & vs. UCF or @ECU & @USF? Not to mention, we've already come out as a TD favorite against Navy.
Finally, we're a top 10 team, and you are giving us no more than a 50% shot to win the title game in the event that we make it. That doesn't add up. Everything else equal (injuries, etc.), we would obviously be favored over anyone we would meet in the title game.
Some more realistic numbers. 75-80% to win the West. 55-60% to win the title = ~45% to win the AAC. Factor in the vig, 1/1 seems right on the money.
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2016 01:35 PM by Kronke.)
(07-14-2016 08:21 AM)vick mike Wrote: These odds have to reflect a teams ability to win their division, so I assume that the oddsmakers find UH and USF with the best chances to win their divisions. UH probably has an easier road to winning their division: they kept their coach, they recruited well, did not lose significant talent and beat FSU in a major bowl game handily, so 50/50 odds seems acceptable, maybe even light. USF looked great in the 2nd half of the season, but the oddsmakers see their road as tougher. Why? The next 2 teams listed are in the East, so the oddsmakers see the East as tougher this year.
Yep. Unlike rosewater, you seem to understand simple math.
Kronke, You do not play a balanced schedule. It is not like the winner of the west is the team that beats all the western teams. Some have to play the more difficult teams in the east while others get to skate. I think there is at least a 30 percent Houston does not win the west and a 50 percent chance you do not win the championship game hence a 35 percent chance to win the championship. So stick it.
I'm open to examining that more closely, as it further proves my point.
We play @Cincy, vs. UConn, vs. UCF.
Navy has vs. UConn, @ECU, @USF.
Memphis has vs. Temple, vs. USF, @Cincy
I think you'd agree that Memphis has by far the toughest draw, so let's eliminate them. Next is Navy. Our UConn games cancel out. Which is more difficult, @Cincy & vs. UCF or @ECU & @USF? Not to mention, we've already come out as a TD favorite against Navy.
Finally, we're a top 10 team, and you are giving us no more than a 50% shot to win the title game in the event that we make it. That doesn't add up. Everything else equal (injuries, etc.), we would obviously be favored over anyone we would meet in the title game.
Some more realistic numbers. 75-80% to win the West. 55-60% to win the title = ~45% to win the AAC. Factor in the vig, 1/1 seems right on the money.
I do not agree with any of your gobeldy goop. You cannot predict these games one at a time before the season starts. If you lose any game inside your division and lose out side your division than it is highly unlikely that you are in the championship game for instance a loss at Memphis and a loss to Cincinnati. I gave Houston a 70 percent chance of winning their division which is pretty fair. A match-up with the best of the field in the East is 50/50 at best. Keep in mind that you have not played a game this year and did not exactly dominate your schedule from last year. You are not objective at all.
(07-14-2016 08:21 AM)vick mike Wrote: These odds have to reflect a teams ability to win their division, so I assume that the oddsmakers find UH and USF with the best chances to win their divisions. UH probably has an easier road to winning their division: they kept their coach, they recruited well, did not lose significant talent and beat FSU in a major bowl game handily, so 50/50 odds seems acceptable, maybe even light. USF looked great in the 2nd half of the season, but the oddsmakers see their road as tougher. Why? The next 2 teams listed are in the East, so the oddsmakers see the East as tougher this year.
Yep. Unlike rosewater, you seem to understand simple math.
Kronke, You do not play a balanced schedule. It is not like the winner of the west is the team that beats all the western teams. Some have to play the more difficult teams in the east while others get to skate. I think there is at least a 30 percent Houston does not win the west and a 50 percent chance you do not win the championship game hence a 35 percent chance to win the championship. So stick it.
I'm open to examining that more closely, as it further proves my point.
We play @Cincy, vs. UConn, vs. UCF.
Navy has vs. UConn, @ECU, @USF.
Memphis has vs. Temple, vs. USF, @Cincy
I think you'd agree that Memphis has by far the toughest draw, so let's eliminate them. Next is Navy. Our UConn games cancel out. Which is more difficult, @Cincy & vs. UCF or @ECU & @USF? Not to mention, we've already come out as a TD favorite against Navy.
Finally, we're a top 10 team, and you are giving us no more than a 50% shot to win the title game in the event that we make it. That doesn't add up. Everything else equal (injuries, etc.), we would obviously be favored over anyone we would meet in the title game.
Some more realistic numbers. 75-80% to win the West. 55-60% to win the title = ~45% to win the AAC. Factor in the vig, 1/1 seems right on the money.
I do not agree with any of your gobeldy goop. You cannot predict these games one at a time before the season starts. If you lose any game inside your division and lose out side your division than it is highly unlikely that you are in the championship game for instance a loss at Memphis and a loss to Cincinnati. I gave Houston a 70 percent chance of winning their division which is pretty fair. A match-up with the best of the field in the East is 50/50 at best. Keep in mind that you have not played a game this year and did not exactly dominate your schedule from last year. You are not objective at all.
You essentially want to dig deep into Houston's worst case scenarios, and just assume the best for our competition. That's not the way probability works.
I think I've had a math-related argument with you before, and it went down this same road. I am convinced your background has to be in liberal arts (no shame in that, but nothing else makes sense), and therefore this is just foreign to you, because I went above and beyond to be reasonable. The fact that you are sticking by the 50/50 call for the title game is ridiculous.
I'll leave it at this, Vegas knows better than you do.
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2016 03:45 PM by Kronke.)
Haha, I just noticed you actually said that we'd be 50/50 "at best" in the title game, so as to imply there exists zero instances where the runaway favorite to win the conference would be favored in the title game. For that to make sense with Vegas' odds, we'd have to be a >100% favorite to win the West.
Words mean things. Suggestion: Try choosing yours more carefully.
(This post was last modified: 07-14-2016 03:46 PM by Kronke.)