I know its a long way off, but what do yall think is the base electoral map for Trump (i.e. his worst case scenario)

I think 2008 was the absolute worst case scenario for any republican. So many things were going wrong for them and so many things going right for the democrats.

The 2012 map was just like the 2008 map except Romney flipped NC and IN.

I think Trump is guaranteed, barring something drastic, to do just as well as Romney. Obama in 08 was a perfect storm against the GOP and don't see any type of perfect storm scenario for Clinton to capture NC, much less IN, in 2016.

I don't think Trump will find a new bottom for the GOP. I think the 2 party system is to entrenched and the country too divided for that to happen.

Trump will do worse than Romney against Obama, even while facing a much more electorally-flawed candidate in Clinton. There is no way in hell he's getting 47%+ of the vote.

He has zero ads, no ground game, etc. As a registered Republican, he's an absolute embarrassment and I won't be voting for him in Ohio.

Looking at the 2012 map, very possible he loses what Romney gained from 2008 along with any of the following: Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Missouri. Some even have Utah in play. UTAH.

Nevada is the one state that could favor Trump compared to McCain and Romney (both lost it, obviously), but I haven't seen any Trump vs. Clinton polling from there recently.

Considering the realclearpolitics map, I can't see one state in the toss-up column that I'd project for Trump over Clinton right now.

Don't underestimate the turnout from black and hispanic voters come November.

If the Republican Party had any sense whatsoever, they'd toss him overboard at the convention.

(07-05-2016 10:48 PM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  Trump will do worse than Romney against Obama, even while facing a much more electorally-flawed candidate in Clinton. There is no way in hell he's getting 47%+ of the vote.

He has zero ads, no ground game, etc. As a registered Republican, he's an absolute embarrassment and I won't be voting for him in Ohio.

Looking at the 2012 map, very possible he loses what Romney gained from 2008 along with any of the following: Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Missouri. Some even have Utah in play. UTAH.

Nevada is the one state that could favor Trump compared to McCain and Romney (both lost it, obviously), but I haven't seen any Trump vs. Clinton polling from there recently.

Considering the realclearpolitics map, I can't see one state in the toss-up column that I'd project for Trump over Clinton right now.

Don't underestimate the turnout from black and hispanic voters come November.

If the Republican Party had any sense whatsoever, they'd toss him overboard at the convention.

No way he loses sc or Georgia. Arizona is certainly possible. So are Missouri and montana

(07-05-2016 10:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  No way he loses sc or Georgia. Arizona is certainly possible. So are Missouri and montana

You'd think not, but there have been several polls that indicate Trump weakness, especially in Georgia over the past few months.

Hell, even a poll in Texas only has Trump up 41-33 as of mid-June. A Republican candidate should be well over 50% there without difficulty.

I remain convinced that Donald Trump is a paid plant by Bill Clinton.

i just find it hard to believe that come election day, typical republican voters in mccain 08 red states will vote for clinton. i just don't see it in this partisan atmosphere.

(07-05-2016 11:08 PM)solohawks Wrote:  i just find it hard to believe that come election day, typical republican voters in mccain 08 red states will vote for clinton. i just don't see it in this partisan atmosphere.

I don't think they'll necessarily vote for Clinton. In fact, I'd say a small number would.

Some will vote for a 3rd party candidate to make sure it's seen directly in the final vote percentages. That's me!

Some will abstain on the Presidential level and then vote party-line Republican.

IMO, a good chunk will stay home entirely because they know the election is a lost cause.

McCain and Romney, while not perfect, were right of center and honorable men. Trump is neither. It's a lot easier for typical Republican voters to accept McCain and Romney than it is someone like Trump.

(07-05-2016 11:15 PM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  

(07-05-2016 11:08 PM)solohawks Wrote:  i just find it hard to believe that come election day, typical republican voters in mccain 08 red states will vote for clinton. i just don't see it in this partisan atmosphere.

I don't think they'll necessarily vote for Clinton. In fact, I'd say a small number would.

Some will vote for a 3rd party candidate to make sure it's seen directly in the final vote percentages. That's me!

Some will abstain on the Presidential level and then vote party-line Republican.

IMO, a good chunk will stay home entirely because they know the election is a lost cause.

McCain and Romney, while not perfect, were right of center and honorable men. Trump is neither. It's a lot easier for typical Republican voters to accept McCain and Romney than it is someone like Trump.

Just to be a contrarian, since this is a message board, Trump received a record turnout and number of votes in the GOP primary. Typical Republican voters haven't had any issues so far.

Between Mexican judges, David Duke, the conspiracy theories, Megyn Kelly bleeding from her wherever, retweeting anti-Semitic memes, etc. (I've lost count at this point of the controversies/shots to his own foot), I'll never say never on which states Trump will find a way to lose. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he wins the Deep South, and then gets swept every where else.

Johnson/Goldwater 2.0.

Maybe, but Trump is running close in PA. IMO, if he can flip PA then he has already flipped OH. Flip those 2 plus FL and he wins.

Trump needs to go all in on PA, if he can't flip that he is toast.

If Trump can contain Himself and deliver on level headed talk and a solid plan, He will not lose the voters he gained in the primaries but easily could gain traction with Independents , Republicans and conservative Democrats looking desperately for anything better than Hillary, whom though the FBI couldn't quite indict without help from the DOJ. That meeting with Bill and Loretta looks like a sneaky move, but still leaves a huge Black Eye on Her as a preset deal made to cover up Her guilt.
Trump still has time and with a great running mate pull this out of the fire. But it will require a smart tactical campaign that gets folks on board.

(07-05-2016 10:48 PM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  Trump will do worse than Romney against Obama, even while facing a much more electorally-flawed candidate in Clinton. There is no way in hell he's getting 47%+ of the vote.

He has zero ads, no ground game, etc. As a registered Republican, he's an absolute embarrassment and I won't be voting for him in Ohio.

Looking at the 2012 map, very possible he loses what Romney gained from 2008 along with any of the following: Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Missouri. Some even have Utah in play. UTAH.

Nevada is the one state that could favor Trump compared to McCain and Romney (both lost it, obviously), but I haven't seen any Trump vs. Clinton polling from there recently.

Considering the realclearpolitics map, I can't see one state in the toss-up column that I'd project for Trump over Clinton right now.

Don't underestimate the turnout from black and hispanic voters come November.

If the Republican Party had any sense whatsoever, they'd toss him overboard at the convention.

We'll see what happens. He hasn't started his campaign yet while Hillary has been dumping millions, but her lead has shrunk anyway.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

(07-05-2016 11:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Maybe, but Trump is running close in PA. IMO, if he can flip PA then he has already flipped OH. Flip those 2 plus FL and he wins.

Trump needs to go all in on PA, if he can't flip that he is toast.

And Virginia should be close as well.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

(07-05-2016 11:26 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Just to be a contrarian, since this is a message board, Trump received a record turnout and number of votes in the GOP primary. Typical Republican voters haven't had any issues so far.

There was record turnout across the board, so that's really not that big a deal.

A record number voted against him by a huge margin. At this time, I'd like to thank Carson and Kasich again for being worthless pieces of garbage who did nothing but protect Trump from Cruz and Rubio. Here's to hoping that's what both are remembered for throughout history. They deserve it.

I believe polls continue to show that 51% of Republicans still want another nominee.

Not only does the Republican candidate need Republicans to win, he needs Independents by a wide margin. That's just not going to happen.

Kronke laid it out well, but it'll be slightly better than Goldwater as the Republican nominee is guaranteed several Plains states.

(07-06-2016 05:23 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  We'll see what happens. He hasn't started his campaign yet while Hillary has been dumping millions, but her lead has shrunk anyway.

Relax guys, Trump hasn't even started running yet!

The Republican party is doomed.

(07-06-2016 05:37 AM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  

(07-06-2016 05:23 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  We'll see what happens. He hasn't started his campaign yet while Hillary has been dumping millions, but her lead has shrunk anyway.

Relax guys, Trump hasn't even started running yet!

The Republican party is doomed.

That isn't what I am saying. Obviously, his strategy is to save the money at this juncture and that the ROI is negligible before the conventions. I'm not saying the strategy will pan out, but this is a guy making up his own set of rules. I have no skin in the game and have no idea where my vote is going. My comments on this race are truly independent.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

(07-06-2016 05:27 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(07-05-2016 11:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Maybe, but Trump is running close in PA. IMO, if he can flip PA then he has already flipped OH. Flip those 2 plus FL and he wins.

Trump needs to go all in on PA, if he can't flip that he is toast.

And Virginia should be close as well.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

I just don't think he can pull off VA. He is going to get DESTROYED in those NOVA suberbs in ways Romney and McCain did not. No part of his message appeals to them in anyway I can tell. If he is winning VA I think it has turned into a landslide election in his favor.

(07-06-2016 05:43 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  That isn't what I am saying. Obviously, his strategy is to save the money at this juncture and that the ROI is negligible before the conventions. I'm not saying the strategy will pan out, but this is a guy making up his own set of rules. I have no skin in the game and have no idea where my vote is going. My comments on this race are truly independent.

What money? He has basically none compared to Clinton. In fact, he had less cash on-hand last month than dozens of sitting Representatives.

I'm going to assume the powerful donors that generally throw massive amounts of money in the Presidential race decide to focus their time and money on Congress.

(07-06-2016 05:43 AM)solohawks Wrote:  I just don't think he can pull off VA. He is going to get DESTROYED in those NOVA suberbs in ways Romney and McCain did not. No part of his message appeals to them in anyway I can tell. If he is winning VA I think it has turned into a landslide election in his favor.

Agreed, and if Kaine's on the ticket, it would be pointless to spend any time or money there.

Trump won't win any state Romney lost in 2012, and will lose at least Arizona. He needs to be dumped at the convention by any means necessary.

(07-06-2016 06:52 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Trump won't win any state Romney lost in 2012, and will lose at least Arizona. He needs to be dumped at the convention by any means necessary.

lol.....yeah, that's the smart move....

I didn't know you worked for the rnc....