(11-10-2016 11:33 AM)bullet Wrote: (11-10-2016 10:39 AM)UofMstateU Wrote: Max, you need to come on here and explain to all of us how these polls work again.
I asked on another thread if he really believed that 350+ electoral vote landslide or if it was just guys "locker room" talk. Didn't see a response last time I looked.
Max is young. The issue with being young is that you lack the historical experience polls and the electorate. He remembers seeing the past two Obama wins, and believes thats the norm.
He hasnt experienced how bad the exit polls were in the past. In 2000, when the election was called for Gore when the exit polls showed Gore won the state (even though Bush was still leading by 5 points in the actual tally), only to have the news organziations pull back their call of the state and therefore their call that Gore had won the election.
He hasnt experienced the nightmare John Kerry went through believing for 9 hours on election day in 2004 that he was the president elect, only to discover he was not.
And that happened again in this cycle. The polls were wrong. And the exit polls were wrong.
It happens, and when you live long enough, you would have seen it happen before, and you dont get locked in believing Nate Silver is God's gift to predicting the election.
And you learn not to lay your life savings on some betting site because your limited experience leads you to believe you cant lose. A site that says one of the major party candidates has less than a 1 percent chance of winning IS ALWAYS WRONG.