(06-26-2016 04:03 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  Gotta love how quickly Max went into campaigning for Hillary after the Bum was defeated. He is incapable of thinking his own thoughts.

he's a typical hard line millennial....is akin to that moby tryst dicky thingy story....

Sure

(06-26-2016 03:57 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 03:30 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-25-2016 06:29 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Isn't it a little early for Republicans to be unskewing polls? I don't remember them unskewing Romney polls til after the convention.

And that's what the poll "unskewers" were doing in 2012. Arguing that they oversampled Democrats. Well, no, they didn't. They only control for immutable factors and whenever a poll shows the Democrat far ahead, the people who are leaning toward him or her are also more likely to identify themselves as Dems.

The latest Reuters poll claims the current race has Hillary Clinton at 47 percent support and Donald Trump with 33 percent support.

Reuters interviews 1201 respondents.
626 Democrats (52% of total)
423 Republicans (35% of total)
122 independents
30 other party.
Reuters poll sampled more Democrats than all the others combined.
-- thegatewaypundit

here's another skewed poll ABC/Wapo http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-o...d=40114224 … 36-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents
-- Y B ‏@yoefax

CHEATERS CAN'T BE TRUSTED

I don't believe you have much understanding of how polling works. They contact people without knowing their affiliation. It is one of the questions they ask once they get them on the line.

Public Policy Polling tweeted earlier today that they have more faith in the NBC/WSJ poll than the ABC/WP poll.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/747057136425926656

party affiliation:

R 27%
D 30%
I 41%
-- gallup jun 1-5 2016

not telling the whole story ...

POT CALLING KETTLE GREEN

(06-26-2016 04:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 03:57 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 03:30 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-25-2016 06:29 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Isn't it a little early for Republicans to be unskewing polls? I don't remember them unskewing Romney polls til after the convention.

And that's what the poll "unskewers" were doing in 2012. Arguing that they oversampled Democrats. Well, no, they didn't. They only control for immutable factors and whenever a poll shows the Democrat far ahead, the people who are leaning toward him or her are also more likely to identify themselves as Dems.

The latest Reuters poll claims the current race has Hillary Clinton at 47 percent support and Donald Trump with 33 percent support.

Reuters interviews 1201 respondents.
626 Democrats (52% of total)
423 Republicans (35% of total)
122 independents
30 other party.
Reuters poll sampled more Democrats than all the others combined.
-- thegatewaypundit

here's another skewed poll ABC/Wapo http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-o...d=40114224 … 36-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents
-- Y B ‏@yoefax

CHEATERS CAN'T BE TRUSTED

I don't believe you have much understanding of how polling works. They contact people without knowing their affiliation. It is one of the questions they ask once they get them on the line.

Public Policy Polling tweeted earlier today that they have more faith in the NBC/WSJ poll than the ABC/WP poll.

party affiliation:

R 27%
D 30%
I 41%
-- gallup jun 1-5 2016

POT CALLING KETTLE GREEN

Earlier you posted about how Gallup has gotten out of presidential polling because their track record was so poor in recent years.

(06-26-2016 04:11 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Earlier you posted about how Gallup has gotten out of presidential polling because their track record was so poor in recent years.

polling for party affiliation doesn't break their pledge to abstain from the horse race ...

NEIGH, SNORT & GALLOP

(06-26-2016 04:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 03:57 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 03:30 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-25-2016 06:29 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Isn't it a little early for Republicans to be unskewing polls? I don't remember them unskewing Romney polls til after the convention.

And that's what the poll "unskewers" were doing in 2012. Arguing that they oversampled Democrats. Well, no, they didn't. They only control for immutable factors and whenever a poll shows the Democrat far ahead, the people who are leaning toward him or her are also more likely to identify themselves as Dems.

The latest Reuters poll claims the current race has Hillary Clinton at 47 percent support and Donald Trump with 33 percent support.

Reuters interviews 1201 respondents.
626 Democrats (52% of total)
423 Republicans (35% of total)
122 independents
30 other party.
Reuters poll sampled more Democrats than all the others combined.
-- thegatewaypundit

here's another skewed poll ABC/Wapo http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-o...d=40114224 … 36-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents
-- Y B ‏@yoefax

CHEATERS CAN'T BE TRUSTED

I don't believe you have much understanding of how polling works. They contact people without knowing their affiliation. It is one of the questions they ask once they get them on the line.

Public Policy Polling tweeted earlier today that they have more faith in the NBC/WSJ poll than the ABC/WP poll.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/747057136425926656

party affiliation:

R 27%
D 30%
I 41%
-- gallup jun 1-5 2016

not telling the whole story ...

POT CALLING KETTLE GREEN

Maybe this from Pew will help you to understand.

Quote:Public opinion researchers generally consider party affiliation to be a psychological identification with one of the two major political parties. It is not the same thing as party registration. Not all states allow voters to register by party, and even in states that do, some people may be reluctant to publicly identify their politics by registering with a party, while others may feel they have to register with a party to participate in primaries that exclude unaffiliated voters. Thus, while party affiliation and party registration is likely to be the same for many people, it will not be the same for everyone.

Party affiliation is derived from a question, typically found at the end of a survey questionnaire, in which respondents are asked how they regard themselves in politics at the moment. In Pew Research Center surveys, the question asks: “In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or Independent?”

As the wording suggests, this question is intended to capture how people think of themselves currently, and people can change their personal allegiance easily. We continually see evidence of this in surveys that ask the same people about their party affiliation at two different points in time. In a post-election survey we conducted in November 2008, we interviewed voters with whom we had spoken less than one month earlier, in mid-October.

Among Republicans interviewed in October, 17% did not identify as Republicans in November. Among Democrats interviewed in October, 10% no longer identified as Democrats. Of those who declined to identify with a party in October, 18% told us they were either Democrats or Republicans when we interviewed them in November. Overall, 15% of voters gave a different answer in November than they did in October.

I found this interesting and should drive the point home regarding polling and party affiliation. It is from September of 2012.

Quote:But the GOP narrative that most public surveys are biased endures. On Monday, Buzzfeed interviewed a Virginia-based blogger who re-weights public polls to reflect the partisan trends reported by automated pollster Rasmussen Reports. Dean Chambers, the blogger, then presents the adjusted data in charts on his website, unskewedpolls.com.

As of late Monday, Chambers' website claimed that an average of polls conducted since Labor Day show Mitt Romney leading Obama, 52 percent to 44 percent. The website and its findings were trumpeted on the Drudge Report, the conservative-leaning news-aggregation site that has tended to highlight polls more favorable to Romney and less favorable to the president.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arch...ns/262834/

(06-26-2016 04:38 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 04:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 03:57 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 03:30 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-25-2016 06:29 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Isn't it a little early for Republicans to be unskewing polls? I don't remember them unskewing Romney polls til after the convention.

And that's what the poll "unskewers" were doing in 2012. Arguing that they oversampled Democrats. Well, no, they didn't. They only control for immutable factors and whenever a poll shows the Democrat far ahead, the people who are leaning toward him or her are also more likely to identify themselves as Dems.

The latest Reuters poll claims the current race has Hillary Clinton at 47 percent support and Donald Trump with 33 percent support.

Reuters interviews 1201 respondents.
626 Democrats (52% of total)
423 Republicans (35% of total)
122 independents
30 other party.
Reuters poll sampled more Democrats than all the others combined.
-- thegatewaypundit

here's another skewed poll ABC/Wapo http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-o...d=40114224 … 36-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents
-- Y B ‏@yoefax

CHEATERS CAN'T BE TRUSTED

I don't believe you have much understanding of how polling works. They contact people without knowing their affiliation. It is one of the questions they ask once they get them on the line.

Public Policy Polling tweeted earlier today that they have more faith in the NBC/WSJ poll than the ABC/WP poll.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/747057136425926656

party affiliation:

R 27%
D 30%
I 41%
-- gallup jun 1-5 2016

not telling the whole story ...

POT CALLING KETTLE GREEN

Maybe this from Pew will help you to understand.

Quote:Public opinion researchers generally consider party affiliation to be a psychological identification with one of the two major political parties. It is not the same thing as party registration. Not all states allow voters to register by party, and even in states that do, some people may be reluctant to publicly identify their politics by registering with a party, while others may feel they have to register with a party to participate in primaries that exclude unaffiliated voters. Thus, while party affiliation and party registration is likely to be the same for many people, it will not be the same for everyone.

Party affiliation is derived from a question, typically found at the end of a survey questionnaire, in which respondents are asked how they regard themselves in politics at the moment. In Pew Research Center surveys, the question asks: “In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or Independent?”

As the wording suggests, this question is intended to capture how people think of themselves currently, and people can change their personal allegiance easily. We continually see evidence of this in surveys that ask the same people about their party affiliation at two different points in time. In a post-election survey we conducted in November 2008, we interviewed voters with whom we had spoken less than one month earlier, in mid-October.

Among Republicans interviewed in October, 17% did not identify as Republicans in November. Among Democrats interviewed in October, 10% no longer identified as Democrats. Of those who declined to identify with a party in October, 18% told us they were either Democrats or Republicans when we interviewed them in November. Overall, 15% of voters gave a different answer in November than they did in October.

http://wwwwakeupamericans-spree.blogspot...s.html?m=1

ironic rationalization from an inaccurate pollster ...
penned a face-saving essay in response to a conservative backlash after pegging a double-digit spread between the party nominees ...
eventual winner eked out victory by just 4% ...
pew was way off ...
then again what's a few % points among friends ...

P. U.

(06-26-2016 07:31 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 04:38 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 04:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 03:57 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 03:30 PM)green Wrote:  The latest Reuters poll claims the current race has Hillary Clinton at 47 percent support and Donald Trump with 33 percent support.

Reuters interviews 1201 respondents.
626 Democrats (52% of total)
423 Republicans (35% of total)
122 independents
30 other party.
Reuters poll sampled more Democrats than all the others combined.
-- thegatewaypundit

here's another skewed poll ABC/Wapo http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-o...d=40114224 … 36-24-33 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents
-- Y B ‏@yoefax

CHEATERS CAN'T BE TRUSTED

I don't believe you have much understanding of how polling works. They contact people without knowing their affiliation. It is one of the questions they ask once they get them on the line.

Public Policy Polling tweeted earlier today that they have more faith in the NBC/WSJ poll than the ABC/WP poll.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/747057136425926656

party affiliation:

R 27%
D 30%
I 41%
-- gallup jun 1-5 2016

not telling the whole story ...

POT CALLING KETTLE GREEN

Maybe this from Pew will help you to understand.

Quote:Public opinion researchers generally consider party affiliation to be a psychological identification with one of the two major political parties. It is not the same thing as party registration. Not all states allow voters to register by party, and even in states that do, some people may be reluctant to publicly identify their politics by registering with a party, while others may feel they have to register with a party to participate in primaries that exclude unaffiliated voters. Thus, while party affiliation and party registration is likely to be the same for many people, it will not be the same for everyone.

Party affiliation is derived from a question, typically found at the end of a survey questionnaire, in which respondents are asked how they regard themselves in politics at the moment. In Pew Research Center surveys, the question asks: “In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or Independent?”

As the wording suggests, this question is intended to capture how people think of themselves currently, and people can change their personal allegiance easily. We continually see evidence of this in surveys that ask the same people about their party affiliation at two different points in time. In a post-election survey we conducted in November 2008, we interviewed voters with whom we had spoken less than one month earlier, in mid-October.

Among Republicans interviewed in October, 17% did not identify as Republicans in November. Among Democrats interviewed in October, 10% no longer identified as Democrats. Of those who declined to identify with a party in October, 18% told us they were either Democrats or Republicans when we interviewed them in November. Overall, 15% of voters gave a different answer in November than they did in October.

http://wwwwakeupamericans-spree.blogspot...s.html?m=1

ironic rationalization from an inaccurate pollster ...
penned a face-saving essay in response to a conservative backlash after pegging a double-digit spread between the party nominees ...
eventual winner eked out victory by just 4% ...
pew was way off ...
then again what's a few % points among friends ...

P. U.

You just don't understand how polling works and aren't willing to try.

(06-26-2016 09:04 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 07:31 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 04:38 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 04:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 03:57 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  I don't believe you have much understanding of how polling works. They contact people without knowing their affiliation. It is one of the questions they ask once they get them on the line.

Public Policy Polling tweeted earlier today that they have more faith in the NBC/WSJ poll than the ABC/WP poll.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/747057136425926656

party affiliation:

R 27%
D 30%
I 41%
-- gallup jun 1-5 2016

not telling the whole story ...

POT CALLING KETTLE GREEN

Maybe this from Pew will help you to understand.

Quote:Public opinion researchers generally consider party affiliation to be a psychological identification with one of the two major political parties. It is not the same thing as party registration. Not all states allow voters to register by party, and even in states that do, some people may be reluctant to publicly identify their politics by registering with a party, while others may feel they have to register with a party to participate in primaries that exclude unaffiliated voters. Thus, while party affiliation and party registration is likely to be the same for many people, it will not be the same for everyone.

Party affiliation is derived from a question, typically found at the end of a survey questionnaire, in which respondents are asked how they regard themselves in politics at the moment. In Pew Research Center surveys, the question asks: “In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or Independent?”

As the wording suggests, this question is intended to capture how people think of themselves currently, and people can change their personal allegiance easily. We continually see evidence of this in surveys that ask the same people about their party affiliation at two different points in time. In a post-election survey we conducted in November 2008, we interviewed voters with whom we had spoken less than one month earlier, in mid-October.

Among Republicans interviewed in October, 17% did not identify as Republicans in November. Among Democrats interviewed in October, 10% no longer identified as Democrats. Of those who declined to identify with a party in October, 18% told us they were either Democrats or Republicans when we interviewed them in November. Overall, 15% of voters gave a different answer in November than they did in October.

http://wwwwakeupamericans-spree.blogspot...s.html?m=1

ironic rationalization from an inaccurate pollster ...
penned a face-saving essay in response to a conservative backlash after pegging a double-digit spread between the party nominees ...
eventual winner eked out victory by just 4% ...
pew was way off ...
then again what's a few % points among friends ...

P. U.

You just don't understand how polling works and aren't willing to try.

sure thing....nobody understands agenda....

how about polling every state and viewing against the electoral count.....maybe that may have a smidgen of credibility....

maybe a larger sample size might help....

or maybe just stick to polling the zoo keepers and janitors is your best method....

(06-26-2016 09:25 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 09:04 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 07:31 PM)green Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 04:38 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 04:07 PM)green Wrote:  https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/747057136425926656

party affiliation:

R 27%
D 30%
I 41%
-- gallup jun 1-5 2016

not telling the whole story ...

POT CALLING KETTLE GREEN

Maybe this from Pew will help you to understand.

Quote:Public opinion researchers generally consider party affiliation to be a psychological identification with one of the two major political parties. It is not the same thing as party registration. Not all states allow voters to register by party, and even in states that do, some people may be reluctant to publicly identify their politics by registering with a party, while others may feel they have to register with a party to participate in primaries that exclude unaffiliated voters. Thus, while party affiliation and party registration is likely to be the same for many people, it will not be the same for everyone.

Party affiliation is derived from a question, typically found at the end of a survey questionnaire, in which respondents are asked how they regard themselves in politics at the moment. In Pew Research Center surveys, the question asks: “In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or Independent?”

As the wording suggests, this question is intended to capture how people think of themselves currently, and people can change their personal allegiance easily. We continually see evidence of this in surveys that ask the same people about their party affiliation at two different points in time. In a post-election survey we conducted in November 2008, we interviewed voters with whom we had spoken less than one month earlier, in mid-October.

Among Republicans interviewed in October, 17% did not identify as Republicans in November. Among Democrats interviewed in October, 10% no longer identified as Democrats. Of those who declined to identify with a party in October, 18% told us they were either Democrats or Republicans when we interviewed them in November. Overall, 15% of voters gave a different answer in November than they did in October.

http://wwwwakeupamericans-spree.blogspot...s.html?m=1

ironic rationalization from an inaccurate pollster ...
penned a face-saving essay in response to a conservative backlash after pegging a double-digit spread between the party nominees ...
eventual winner eked out victory by just 4% ...
pew was way off ...
then again what's a few % points among friends ...

P. U.

You just don't understand how polling works and aren't willing to try.

sure thing....nobody understands agenda....

how about polling every state and viewing against the electoral count.....maybe that may have a smidgen of credibility....

maybe a larger sample size might help....

or maybe just stick to polling the zoo keepers and janitors is your best method....

I posted all the recent state polls earlier in the thread and few seemed interested in discussing them.

*I've added new polls released Sunday.

National polls are interesting but individual states really tell us much more. Here are some state polls from this week.
North Carolina ( PPP )
Trump 48 Clinton 46 in a two way race. Trump +2
Trump 43 Clinton 43 in a four way race. Tie
*North Carolina (CBS/YouGov)
Trump 42 Clinton 44 in two way race Clinton +2
Pennsylvania ( Quinnipiac )
Trump 41 Clinton 42 in a two way race Clinton +1
Trump 36 Clinton 39 in a four way race Clinton +3
Ohio ( Quinnipiac )
Trump 40 Clinton 40 in a two way race Tie
Trump 36 Clinton 38 in a four way race Clinton +2
Florida ( Quinnipiac )
Trump 39 Clinton 47 in a two way race Clinton +8
Trump 36 Clinton 42 in a four way race Clinton +6
*Florida (CBS/YouGov)
Trump 41 Clinton 44 in two way race Clinton +3
Utah (Utah Policy / Dan Jones )
Trump 36 Clinton 27 in a four way race Trump +9
*Colorado (CBS/YouGov)
Trump 39 Clinton 40 in a two way race Clinton +1
*Wisconsin (CBS/YouGov)
Trump 36 Clinton 41 in a two way race Clinton +5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...president/

Kasich would have been up over Hill by 10 points.

Hope all you Trumpinistas enjoy the Hill's Presidency.

(06-26-2016 10:12 AM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 10:11 AM)Fitbud Wrote:  

(06-26-2016 09:32 AM)bullet Wrote:  Clinton seems to believe these polls that show her with a big lead. But she is ignoring states that are potentially going to flip Republican.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/...story.html

She only needs Florida.

She won't get it.

I guess that you haven't been paying attention to the Puerto Rican bailout story. Hundreds of thousands of PRs are moving to Florida. It will be a solidly blue state this year and in the foreseeable future.

(06-27-2016 07:49 AM)QuestionSocratic Wrote:  Kasich would have been up over Hill by 10 points.

Hope all you Trumpinistas enjoy the Hill's Presidency.

“We get almost 14 million votes, we win 36, 37 states -- others win none. None. Now people who got none are saying, ‘Maybe we can get something at the convention,’ ”a fired-up Trump said in Las Vegas. “It doesn’t work that way, folks.”
-- Bloomberg

lackluster kasich won his home state ...
lost the others ...
he had his chance ...

ONE & ONLY

I'm guessing only the polls in NC, OH, and FL matter in this one.

Someone ran the numbers on the latest Reuters poll.. apparently the demographics was 52% Democratic voters, 35% republican voters, and the rest were independents.

Not saying that Hillary probably doesn't lead, but with a 17% voter differential in political parties respondents?

(06-27-2016 09:02 AM)fsquid Wrote:  I'm guessing only the polls in NC, OH, and FL matter in this one.

My guess is this year there end up being a lot of battleground states. A lot of typically safe Republican states will be much closer than usual and a few Democratic states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will be close. Trump probably loses Yuuge in the heaviest Democratic states in the northeast and on the west coast. The only places Hillary loses Yuuge are the coal states, including typically close states like W. Virginia and Kentucky.

(06-27-2016 09:47 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  Someone ran the numbers on the latest Reuters poll.. apparently the demographics was 52% Democratic voters, 35% republican voters, and the rest were independents.

Not saying that Hillary probably doesn't lead, but with a 17% voter differential in political parties respondents?

That is because party identity is a fluid number. It isn't about registration numbers. It isn't about picking the respondents. Respondents self identify during the survey. Ask the same respondents at another point in time and you will get different percentages. I imagine Trumps' recent gaffs caused some respondents to say D or I instead of R when asked. When / if they feel better about Trump they would say R. That isn't to say that the Reuters poll is as accurate as some of the others. It does appear to be an outlier. But I don't think party ID differential is the cause.

(06-27-2016 10:25 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-27-2016 09:02 AM)fsquid Wrote:  I'm guessing only the polls in NC, OH, and FL matter in this one.

My guess is this year there end up being a lot of battleground states. A lot of typically safe Republican states will be much closer than usual and a few Democratic states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will be close. Trump probably loses Yuuge in the heaviest Democratic states in the northeast and on the west coast. The only places Hillary loses Yuuge are the coal states, including typically close states like W. Virginia and Kentucky.

Kentucky voted for Bill both times but residents hated Hillary even back then if that makes sense. We all knew She was a B***h and acted above everyone else. The same goes today. Kentucky won't be close for her outside of certain communities in Louisville, Lexington and Covington.