(06-20-2016 08:25 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 08:23 AM)nole Wrote:  Wow.

If the ACC was smart, and it isn't, it would wait and rebid it's contract on the open market. Instead, it is going to lock in long term for pennies on the dollar and spend a fortune on PR to tell everyone what a big win it is.

Don't remind me...the last deal Swofford signed for IMO left a lot of $$$ on the table...the ACC gets very solid TV Ratings for Football and Basketball.

You are correct, but you would never know by the contracts Swofford signs.

(06-20-2016 08:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  to the original post 1st point:
1. This is for the second half the package that is to be split with Fox. This includes approximately 25 football games and 50 basketball games. [Madison Hawk Comment: Note that the math does not add up as there are still approximately 5-10 football games 10-20 basketball games still unaccounted for. It is unclear whether these will be split between Fox/ESPN or go to BTN].

For football- this is everything.
Big Ten now with 14 teams playing 9 conference games- at most- can have
63 conference games
42 OOC home games
105 total games.
The number will be around 95-100 games most years. About half of that goes to the Big Ten network.

For Basketball I think the number that was shown on ESPN was roughly 5 games a week in conference play. Then you get the stuff like the ACC/Big Ten challenge. 100 games sounds just about right for that.

In football, there were 98 games last year and 97 this year (14 teams * 7 home games; only Maryland had 6 this year). BTN appears to be limited at 40 games per year (the amount they had the last three years). ESPN had 58 games last year, broken down as follows:

ABC: 21 (13 full national; 8 regional with ESPN2 in outer markets)
ESPN: 10
ESPN2: 8
ESPNU: 11
ESPN News: 8

Assuming BTN remains at 40 games, Fox and ESPN will be splitting ~56-58 games each year. I can see the package split in approximately four equal parts as follows:

Fox: 14-15 games
FS1: 14-15 games
ABC: 14-15 games
ESPN/2: 14-15 games

The B1G would be getting a bump in OTA coverage with ~2 games a week on OTA, which would be great exposure compared to the current package and other conferences. Fox and FS1 acquire much needed content. ABC maintains quality games for its Saturday afternoon and Saturday night packages while ESPN retains strong content for its Noon ET package. It sounds like a good deal for all.

(06-20-2016 08:43 AM)nole Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 08:25 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 08:23 AM)nole Wrote:  Wow.

If the ACC was smart, and it isn't, it would wait and rebid it's contract on the open market. Instead, it is going to lock in long term for pennies on the dollar and spend a fortune on PR to tell everyone what a big win it is.

Don't remind me...the last deal Swofford signed for IMO left a lot of $$$ on the table...the ACC gets very solid TV Ratings for Football and Basketball.

You are correct, but you would never know by the contracts Swofford signs.

The current ESPN Deal and the Orange Bowl Deal...

(06-20-2016 08:48 AM)MadisonHawk Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 08:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  to the original post 1st point:
1. This is for the second half the package that is to be split with Fox. This includes approximately 25 football games and 50 basketball games. [Madison Hawk Comment: Note that the math does not add up as there are still approximately 5-10 football games 10-20 basketball games still unaccounted for. It is unclear whether these will be split between Fox/ESPN or go to BTN].

For football- this is everything.
Big Ten now with 14 teams playing 9 conference games- at most- can have
63 conference games
42 OOC home games
105 total games.
The number will be around 95-100 games most years. About half of that goes to the Big Ten network.

For Basketball I think the number that was shown on ESPN was roughly 5 games a week in conference play. Then you get the stuff like the ACC/Big Ten challenge. 100 games sounds just about right for that.

In football, there were 98 games last year and 97 this year (14 teams * 7 home games; only Maryland had 6 this year). BTN appears to be limited at 40 games per year (the amount they had the last three years). ESPN had 58 games last year, broken down as follows:

ABC: 21 (13 full national; 8 regional with ESPN2 in outer markets)
ESPN: 10
ESPN2: 8
ESPNU: 11
ESPN News: 8

Assuming BTN remains at 40 games, Fox and ESPN will be splitting ~56-58 games each year. I can see the package split in approximately four equal parts as follows:

Fox: 14-15 games
FS1: 14-15 games
ABC: 14-15 games
ESPN/2: 14-15 games

The B1G would be getting a bump in OTA coverage with ~2 games a week on OTA, which would be great exposure compared to the current package and other conferences. Fox and FS1 acquire much needed content. ABC maintains quality games for its Saturday afternoon and Saturday night packages while ESPN retains strong content for its Noon ET package. It sounds like a good deal for all.

looking at the schedule- there are 35 OOC home games scheduled this season. So there are 98 Big Ten controlled games.... (while Maryland has 6 home games- Michigan has 8).

My hunch is the 8 ESPNews games will just get assimilated into the Big Ten network package. Very much lower level games.

(06-20-2016 08:49 AM)Maize Wrote:  The current ESPN Deal and the Orange Bowl Deal...

FWIW the Orange Bowl deal was hampered by the opponent, which was going to be at best the number 2 (really the number 3) team from the Big Ten or SEC, whereas the other two bowls put the top team from two conferences (or really the number 2 team most years). The "loss" so to speak, was to not sign the Orange Bowl deal with the SEC BEFORE they could sign a deal with the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12. But I am not sure how feasible such a play would be.

(06-20-2016 09:18 AM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 08:49 AM)Maize Wrote:  The current ESPN Deal and the Orange Bowl Deal...

FWIW the Orange Bowl deal was hampered by the opponent, which was going to be at best the number 2 (really the number 3) team from the Big Ten or SEC, whereas the other two bowls put the top team from two conferences (or really the number 2 team most years). The "loss" so to speak, was to not sign the Orange Bowl deal with the SEC BEFORE they could sign a deal with the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12. But I am not sure how feasible such a play would be.

That was IMO due to the Big XII having at that time Chuck Neinas running the ship even in a Interm Basis...he ran circles around Swofford.

(06-20-2016 08:28 AM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  I think it will become a fight for Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
Big Ten
Offers all three full membership + maybe Rice for another Texas School

PAC-12
Offers all three full membership + Texas Tech

ACC
Offers Texas, Notre Dame deal so Texas can play 6 non-conference games against other Texas schools and national programs.

SEC
Offers Oklahoma and maybe Texas not sure if the SEC wants the baggage that comes with them.

If the SEC and ACC keep working together like they have been they both could get what they want in Texas and Oklahoma. The ACC gets Texas and the SEC gets Oklahoma.

The left overs from the Big 12 will cherry pick the best of the teams from the American and MWC/BYU to become the Big 14, 16...20 who knows however big. The American, MAC, MWC conference takes C-USA/Sun Belt and then one of those conferences dies like the WAC and you are left with 9 conferences.

SEC/Big Ten
PAC/ACC
BIG XX
American / MWC / MAC (when the American and MWC lose teams to the Big 12 the MAC will stay stable and keep moving up)
Left Over Conference (what ever southern schools are left out form their own conference OR with no revenue they could be forced to go FCS like Idaho)

Some people, especially ACC fans, keep predicting Texas with a Notre Dame type deal to the ACC. From where I sit, I do not think that will ever happen. That would be fine for football, but it would be a real bummer for the other sports. Austin, Texas is a looooong way from the East coast for the softball, soccer, tennis, golf teams etc. to travel.

As I have said before, Texas does not have to "settle" for anything and I do not think they would settle for this.

(06-20-2016 07:38 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:35 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  This triples the payouts for the B1G. The gap has started.

The Gap was already there....again not so much a P5...from the beginning with the B1G/SEC got the separate Orange Bowl Deal it was apparent...you have the Mega 2-(B1G/SEC)...Power 3-(Pac 12, ACC, Big XII)...Tweener-(AAC/MWC) and the Little 3-(Sunbelt, C-USA & MAC)....

No, the gap is new, or more specifically, renewed. The Big 10 had an older deal and didn't get significant bumps with their expansion. The Big 10 actually lagged on Tier I & II TV revenue as the other conferences had newer deals that surpassed theirs, which was the biggest prior to the realignment that started in 2010. They made it up with BTN. Last year's average distributions:
SEC $31.2
B1G $29.3 (BTN was about $8 million)
ACC $26.2 (only one to have their bowl-Orange-last year)
Big 12 $25.2 + individual Tier III
Pac 12 $25.1 (P12N was about $1 million)

(06-20-2016 09:30 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 09:18 AM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 08:49 AM)Maize Wrote:  The current ESPN Deal and the Orange Bowl Deal...

FWIW the Orange Bowl deal was hampered by the opponent, which was going to be at best the number 2 (really the number 3) team from the Big Ten or SEC, whereas the other two bowls put the top team from two conferences (or really the number 2 team most years). The "loss" so to speak, was to not sign the Orange Bowl deal with the SEC BEFORE they could sign a deal with the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12. But I am not sure how feasible such a play would be.

That was IMO due to the Big XII having at that time Chuck Neinas running the ship even in a Interm Basis...he ran circles around Swofford.

yeah a lot that and a lot the fact the Big 12 was going really well at that point. And the ACC was at probably a historic low- looking at the 5 year period before the parings were set- so 2007-11- the only ACC team in the top 30 winning percentage was Virginia Tech. Big 12 had Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech in the top 30, along with newcomers TCU and West Virginia. I think if it was done now, the ACC would have had a whole lot better shot quite frankly.

(06-20-2016 07:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:38 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:35 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  This triples the payouts for the B1G. The gap has started.

The Gap was already there....again not so much a P5...from the beginning with the B1G/SEC got the separate Orange Bowl Deal it was apparent...you have the Mega 2-(B1G/SEC)...Power 3-(Pac 12, ACC, Big XII)...Tweener-(AAC/MWC) and the Little 3-(Sunbelt, C-USA & MAC)....

That's a good way to describe it. The issue now becomes "will the gap between the M2 and P3 be large enough to destabilize the P5, in the sense that either (a) some schools in the P3 will think the gap too large and agitate for inclusion in the M2 and/or a weakening of agreements like GORs that make it difficult for them to leave, thus weakening their P3 conference, or (b) the M2 will perceive the gap between themselves and the P3 as large enough to permit them to raid the P3"?

I think both are reasonably likely. Heck, we already have one example of (b), the B1G was able to lure MD from the ACC with the promise of much higher future media dollars.

You're missing the key question. Will somebody pay that much? There aren't many schools that can bring that much value.

(06-20-2016 08:43 AM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 08:25 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 08:23 AM)nole Wrote:  Wow.

If the ACC was smart, and it isn't, it would wait and rebid it's contract on the open market. Instead, it is going to lock in long term for pennies on the dollar and spend a fortune on PR to tell everyone what a big win it is.

Don't remind me...the last deal Swofford signed for IMO left a lot of $$$ on the table...the ACC gets very solid TV Ratings for Football and Basketball.

The last deal he signed... the ACC was the highest paid conference at the time. But the timing was not great.

He gave away the Tier III.

(06-20-2016 07:38 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:35 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  This triples the payouts for the B1G. The gap has started.

The Gap was already there....again not so much a P5...from the beginning with the B1G/SEC got the separate Orange Bowl Deal it was apparent...you have the Mega 2-(B1G/SEC)...Power 3-(Pac 12, ACC, Big XII)...Tweener-(AAC/MWC) and the Little 3-(Sunbelt, C-USA & MAC)....

I would go step further it is the Mega 1 (Big 10) then SEC, and now the Pac
12 ACC Big 12.

The Big 10's TV rights deal just went to about 30 Million per team, and the SEC is locked into it's CBS/ESPN deal that averages in the low to mid 20s.

The Big 10's athletics overall are middle of the pack at best but Delany is a master negotiator.

I'm not sure how the ACC is going to get out of signing an extension of their current deal to get a network. I don't see a bargaining chip to get a network and still have the contract end in 2027. Maybe the ACC eats more of the cost to startup the network?

I would do it not to extend the contract, but I don't think that will happen.

(06-20-2016 09:39 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:38 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:35 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  This triples the payouts for the B1G. The gap has started.

The Gap was already there....again not so much a P5...from the beginning with the B1G/SEC got the separate Orange Bowl Deal it was apparent...you have the Mega 2-(B1G/SEC)...Power 3-(Pac 12, ACC, Big XII)...Tweener-(AAC/MWC) and the Little 3-(Sunbelt, C-USA & MAC)....

That's a good way to describe it. The issue now becomes "will the gap between the M2 and P3 be large enough to destabilize the P5, in the sense that either (a) some schools in the P3 will think the gap too large and agitate for inclusion in the M2 and/or a weakening of agreements like GORs that make it difficult for them to leave, thus weakening their P3 conference, or (b) the M2 will perceive the gap between themselves and the P3 as large enough to permit them to raid the P3"?

I think both are reasonably likely. Heck, we already have one example of (b), the B1G was able to lure MD from the ACC with the promise of much higher future media dollars.

You're missing the key question. Will somebody pay that much? There aren't many schools that can bring that much value.

Exactly. Texas, Notre Dame.. maybe Florida State but I don't see anyone else who brings that value (sorry Kansas, I know your basketball following is awesome but it is not $40M awesome).

(06-20-2016 09:43 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 09:39 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:38 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:35 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  This triples the payouts for the B1G. The gap has started.

The Gap was already there....again not so much a P5...from the beginning with the B1G/SEC got the separate Orange Bowl Deal it was apparent...you have the Mega 2-(B1G/SEC)...Power 3-(Pac 12, ACC, Big XII)...Tweener-(AAC/MWC) and the Little 3-(Sunbelt, C-USA & MAC)....

That's a good way to describe it. The issue now becomes "will the gap between the M2 and P3 be large enough to destabilize the P5, in the sense that either (a) some schools in the P3 will think the gap too large and agitate for inclusion in the M2 and/or a weakening of agreements like GORs that make it difficult for them to leave, thus weakening their P3 conference, or (b) the M2 will perceive the gap between themselves and the P3 as large enough to permit them to raid the P3"?

I think both are reasonably likely. Heck, we already have one example of (b), the B1G was able to lure MD from the ACC with the promise of much higher future media dollars.

You're missing the key question. Will somebody pay that much? There aren't many schools that can bring that much value.

Exactly. Texas, Notre Dame.. maybe Florida State but I don't see anyone else who brings that value (sorry Kansas, I know your basketball following is awesome but it is not $40M awesome).

Iowa St. AD was interviewed last week and was commenting on how they sell out basketball while other schools have half empty arenas, but that it wasn't that significant, that football drove 85% of the revenue.

(06-20-2016 06:39 AM)MadisonHawk Wrote:  According to Sports Business Journal, B1G and ESPN have reached a new six-year agreement. The full article is set forth here (may be behind a paywall) but highlights include the following:

1. This is for the second half the package that is to be split with Fox. This includes approximately 25 football games and 50 basketball games. [Madison Hawk Comment: Note that the math does not add up as there are still approximately 5-10 football games 10-20 basketball games still unaccounted for. It is unclear whether these will be split between Fox/ESPN or go to BTN].

2. The price is $190M annually, compared to Fox's payment of $240M and the current ESPN payment for all of the rights (other than the B1G football championship game) at $150M. This is a significant increase for the B1G. From approximately $180M ($150M + $30 from Fox for B1G championship) to $430M for the same package.

3. Fox will have priority selections over ESPN. Specifically, it will have the B1G football championship every year. In addition, there is a selection order of game selection between Fox and ESPN but Fox will be able to select the initial week it will have first selection. Look for Michigan vs. Ohio State to be on Fox most years.

4. Games will be on ABC, ESPN and ESPN2. There will be "far fewer" games on ESPNU.

5. The length of the ESPN deal is six years, same as the Fox deal.

6. B1G and CBS reached an extension for basketball so the B1G basketball tournament finals and semi-finals will continue to be on CBS.

Wait. That Michigan Twitter "Guru" named Bluevod assured us that NBC would get that part of the deal and that ND, Texas, FSU, GT, Virginia and the New England Patriots were joining the Big Ten.

Does this mean that he was wrong??

When speaking of expansion, always remember that contiguous states is a rule for the B1G. No skipping states. Thus, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Missouri may get the offer too.

The ACC becomes solidified for years to come.

Jim Delany finishes B1G expansion to 18 teams and then retires.

(06-20-2016 09:18 AM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 08:49 AM)Maize Wrote:  The current ESPN Deal and the Orange Bowl Deal...

FWIW the Orange Bowl deal was hampered by the opponent, which was going to be at best the number 2 (really the number 3) team from the Big Ten or SEC, whereas the other two bowls put the top team from two conferences (or really the number 2 team most years). The "loss" so to speak, was to not sign the Orange Bowl deal with the SEC BEFORE they could sign a deal with the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12. But I am not sure how feasible such a play would be.

The SEC wasn't going to sign a deal with anyone but the Sugar -or more accurately, a major bowl located in New Orleans - they are thick as thieves, unless the Orange dumped a lot more money on the table. Which they couldn't do.

(06-20-2016 09:39 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:38 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:35 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  This triples the payouts for the B1G. The gap has started.

The Gap was already there....again not so much a P5...from the beginning with the B1G/SEC got the separate Orange Bowl Deal it was apparent...you have the Mega 2-(B1G/SEC)...Power 3-(Pac 12, ACC, Big XII)...Tweener-(AAC/MWC) and the Little 3-(Sunbelt, C-USA & MAC)....

That's a good way to describe it. The issue now becomes "will the gap between the M2 and P3 be large enough to destabilize the P5, in the sense that either (a) some schools in the P3 will think the gap too large and agitate for inclusion in the M2 and/or a weakening of agreements like GORs that make it difficult for them to leave, thus weakening their P3 conference, or (b) the M2 will perceive the gap between themselves and the P3 as large enough to permit them to raid the P3"?

I think both are reasonably likely. Heck, we already have one example of (b), the B1G was able to lure MD from the ACC with the promise of much higher future media dollars.

You're missing the key question. Will somebody pay that much? There aren't many schools that can bring that much value.

There are blue-chip names that can - Notre Dame, Texas, UNC, Oklahoma. But even beyond them, the B1G knew they were going to be getting about this much, and signed Rutgers and MD anyway. So i think it's more schools than many might think.

(06-20-2016 10:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 09:39 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:43 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:38 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(06-20-2016 07:35 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  This triples the payouts for the B1G. The gap has started.

The Gap was already there....again not so much a P5...from the beginning with the B1G/SEC got the separate Orange Bowl Deal it was apparent...you have the Mega 2-(B1G/SEC)...Power 3-(Pac 12, ACC, Big XII)...Tweener-(AAC/MWC) and the Little 3-(Sunbelt, C-USA & MAC)....

That's a good way to describe it. The issue now becomes "will the gap between the M2 and P3 be large enough to destabilize the P5, in the sense that either (a) some schools in the P3 will think the gap too large and agitate for inclusion in the M2 and/or a weakening of agreements like GORs that make it difficult for them to leave, thus weakening their P3 conference, or (b) the M2 will perceive the gap between themselves and the P3 as large enough to permit them to raid the P3"?

I think both are reasonably likely. Heck, we already have one example of (b), the B1G was able to lure MD from the ACC with the promise of much higher future media dollars.

You're missing the key question. Will somebody pay that much? There aren't many schools that can bring that much value.

There are blue-chip names that can - Notre Dame, Texas, UNC, Oklahoma. But even beyond them, the B1G knew they were going to be getting about this much, and signed Rutgers and MD anyway. So i think it's more schools than many might think.

Not so much discounting Oklahoma & UNC but they are not on the IMO $35 to 40 Million level of ND & Texas...there is a reason why the Pac 12 didn't take Oklahoma without Texas...it is about those two schools IMO first and foremost.

(06-20-2016 07:40 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  31.4 million just from this. That does not include BTN payouts and other payouts.

And you and others are celebrating this. Stupefying.

RIP college football.