A few days ago, I began grouping the P5 teams into Quintiles (5 equal-sized groupings of 13 teams each), in various attributes (for instance: attendance, market, revenue, etc).

I just completed the Football 5-year Win-Loss measure.

Listed below is the Football P5 + Notre Dame, Conference-by-Conference, Team-by-Team, W/L 5 Season Results:

The is organized by 5 year Football W/L percentage Total all opponents, by Conference


EDIT: Note: I will try to show the 5 Quintiles, within each conference, by use of color fonts.

ACC:

0.8529 Florida State
0.8235 Clemson
0.7231 Louisville
0.6061 Virginia Tech
0.6000 North Carolina
0.5714 Miami FL
0.5538 Duke
0.5455 Georgia Tech
0.5156 NC State
0.5077 Pittsburgh
0.4355 Syracuse
0.3770 Virginia
0.3710 Boston College
0.3443 Wake Forest

Big 12:

0.7692 Oklahoma
0.7692 Baylor
0.7231 Oklahoma State
0.7031 TCU
0.6769 Kansas State
0.5625 Texas
0.5625 West Virginia
0.5079 Texas Tech
0.3226 Iowa State
0.1500 Kansas

Big Ten:

0.8358 Ohio State
0.7941 Michigan State
0.7206 Wisconsin
0.6515 Nebraska
0.6406 Michigan
0.6032 Penn State
0.5846 Iowa
0.5714 Northwestern
0.5625 Rutgers
0.4844 Minnesota
0.3871 Illinois
0.3710 Maryland
0.3279 Indiana
0.3065 Purdue

PAC 12:

0.8382 Oregon
0.7941 Stanford
0.6667 Southern Cal
0.6418 UCLA
0.6061 Arizona State
0.5873 Utah
0.5758 Washington
0.5692 Arizona
0.4194 Oregon State
0.4032 Washington State
0.3871 California
0.2258 Colorado

SEC:

0.8986 Alabama
0.7692 LSU
0.7463 Georgia
0.6719 South Carolina
0.6615 Texas A&M
0.6308 Missouri
0.6308 Mississippi State
0.6094 Florida
0.5846 Auburn
0.5625 Mississippi
0.5238 Arkansas
0.5000 Tennessee
0.4921 Vanderbilt
0.3167 Kentucky


Notre Dame:

0.7231 Notre Dame

Here are Win% for the last 10 years vs. P5 only (well, plus Notre Dame and BYU):

Rk Team Pct
1 Ohio State 0.806
2 Alabama 0.776
3 Oregon 0.770
4 Oklahoma 0.736
5 LSU 0.709
6 USC 0.702
7 Florida State 0.694
8 Georgia 0.667
9 Clemson 0.658
10 Boise State 0.654
11 Wisconsin 0.653
12 Florida 0.650
13 Oklahoma State 0.641
14 Virginia Tech 0.640
15 TCU 0.627
16 Stanford 0.624
17 Michigan State 0.619
18 Notre Dame 0.604
19 Texas 0.598
20 Missouri 0.596
21 Penn State 0.594
22 West Virginia 0.570
23 Louisville 0.563
24 Auburn 0.556
25 Utah 0.553
26 Nebraska 0.552
27 Iowa 0.551
28 South Carolina 0.539
29 Georgia Tech 0.532
30 Michigan 0.529
31 Cincinnati 0.525
32 UCLA 0.513
33 Arizona State 0.509
34 Kansas State 0.500
35 Baylor 0.490
36 Oregon State 0.486
37 Northwestern 0.485
38 Pittsburgh 0.480
39 Texas A&M 0.479
39 Texas Tech 0.479
41 North Carolina 0.475
42 Arizona 0.471
43 BYU 0.469
44 Miami 0.465
45 Arkansas 0.458
46 California 0.440
47 Houston 0.440
48 Rutgers 0.435
49 Connecticut 0.433
50 Boston College 0.430
51 Mississippi State 0.400
51 South Florida 0.400
53 Tennessee 0.396
54 Washington 0.394
55 Wake Forest 0.392
56 Navy 0.381
57 Mississippi 0.376
58 NC State 0.367
59 Maryland 0.351
59 Virginia 0.351
61 Toledo 0.318
62 East Carolina 0.314
63 Minnesota 0.298
64 Fresno State 0.296
65 Illinois 0.295
66 Duke 0.292
67 Syracuse 0.291
68 Vanderbilt 0.287
69 Central Florida 0.286
70 Nevada 0.280
71 Kentucky 0.277
71 Purdue 0.277
73 Washington State 0.265
74 Northern Illinois 0.261
75 Hawaii 0.259
76 Bowling Green 0.250
77 Iowa State 0.245
78 Kansas 0.239
79 Indiana 0.218
80 Ball State 0.211
81 Louisiana Tech 0.208
82 Colorado 0.196


I was getting ready to publish this on my blog and thought you guys might want a preview first.
source: http://www.bcftoys.com/10-year-results/

(06-19-2016 04:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here are Win% for the last 10 years vs. P5 only (well, plus Notre Dame and BYU):

Rk Team Pct
1 Ohio State 0.806
2 Alabama 0.776
3 Oregon 0.770
4 Oklahoma 0.736
5 LSU 0.709
6 USC 0.702
7 Florida State 0.694
8 Georgia 0.667
9 Clemson 0.658
10 Boise State 0.654
11 Wisconsin 0.653
12 Florida 0.650
13 Oklahoma State 0.641
14 Virginia Tech 0.640
15 TCU 0.627
16 Stanford 0.624
17 Michigan State 0.619
18 Notre Dame 0.604
19 Texas 0.598
20 Missouri 0.596
21 Penn State 0.594
22 West Virginia 0.570
23 Louisville 0.563
24 Auburn 0.556
25 Utah 0.553
26 Nebraska 0.552
27 Iowa 0.551
28 South Carolina 0.539
29 Georgia Tech 0.532
30 Michigan 0.529
31 Cincinnati 0.525
32 UCLA 0.513
33 Arizona State 0.509
34 Kansas State 0.500
35 Baylor 0.490
36 Oregon State 0.486
37 Northwestern 0.485
38 Pittsburgh 0.480
39 Texas A&M 0.479
39 Texas Tech 0.479
41 North Carolina 0.475
42 Arizona 0.471
43 BYU 0.469
44 Miami 0.465
45 Arkansas 0.458
46 California 0.440
47 Houston 0.440
48 Rutgers 0.435
49 Connecticut 0.433
50 Boston College 0.430
51 Mississippi State 0.400
51 South Florida 0.400
53 Tennessee 0.396
54 Washington 0.394
55 Wake Forest 0.392
56 Navy 0.381
57 Mississippi 0.376
58 NC State 0.367
59 Maryland 0.351
59 Virginia 0.351
61 Toledo 0.318
62 East Carolina 0.314
63 Minnesota 0.298
64 Fresno State 0.296
65 Illinois 0.295
66 Duke 0.292
67 Syracuse 0.291
68 Vanderbilt 0.287
69 Central Florida 0.286
70 Nevada 0.280
71 Kentucky 0.277
71 Purdue 0.277
73 Washington State 0.265
74 Northern Illinois 0.261
75 Hawaii 0.259
76 Bowling Green 0.250
77 Iowa State 0.245
78 Kansas 0.239
79 Indiana 0.218
80 Ball State 0.211
81 Louisiana Tech 0.208
82 Colorado 0.196


I was getting ready to publish this on my blog and thought you guys might want a preview first.
source: http://www.bcftoys.com/10-year-results/

A few things jump out at me from your ten-year list (wins vs P5's):

1. Boise is good
2. Cincinnati does pretty well.
3. Within the top 50, only 5 non-P5 teams:
Boise State
Cincinnati
BYU
Houston
Connecticut
4. For P5's vs. P5's, Colorado, Indiana, Kansas and Iowa State are pretty bad.

(06-19-2016 09:21 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  A few days ago, I began grouping the P5 teams into Quintiles (5 equal-sized groupings of 13 teams each), in various attributes (for instance: attendance, market, revenue, etc).

I just completed the Football 5-year Win-Loss measure.

Listed below is the Football P5 + Notre Dame, Conference-by-Conference, Team-by-Team, W/L 5 Season Results:

The is organized by 5 year Football W/L percentage Total all opponents, by Conference


EDIT: Note: I will try to show the 5 Quintiles, within each conference, by use of color fonts.

ACC:

0.8529 Florida State
0.8235 Clemson
0.7231 Louisville
0.6061 Virginia Tech
0.6000 North Carolina
0.5714 Miami FL
0.5538 Duke
0.5455 Georgia Tech
0.5156 NC State
0.5077 Pittsburgh
0.4355 Syracuse
0.3770 Virginia
0.3710 Boston College
0.3443 Wake Forest

Big 12:

0.7692 Oklahoma
0.7692 Baylor
0.7231 Oklahoma State
0.7031 TCU
0.6769 Kansas State
0.5625 Texas
0.5625 West Virginia
0.5079 Texas Tech
0.3226 Iowa State
0.1500 Kansas

Big Ten:

0.8358 Ohio State
0.7941 Michigan State
0.7206 Wisconsin
0.6515 Nebraska
0.6406 Michigan
0.6032 Penn State
0.5846 Iowa
0.5714 Northwestern
0.5625 Rutgers
0.4844 Minnesota
0.3871 Illinois
0.3710 Maryland
0.3279 Indiana
0.3065 Purdue

PAC 12:

0.8382 Oregon
0.7941 Stanford
0.6667 Southern Cal
0.6418 UCLA
0.6061 Arizona State
0.5873 Utah
0.5758 Washington
0.5692 Arizona
0.4194 Oregon State
0.4032 Washington State
0.3871 California
0.2258 Colorado

SEC:

0.8986 Alabama
0.7692 LSU
0.7463 Georgia
0.6719 South Carolina
0.6615 Texas A&M
0.6308 Missouri
0.6308 Mississippi State
0.6094 Florida
0.5846 Auburn
0.5625 Mississippi
0.5238 Arkansas
0.5000 Tennessee
0.4921 Vanderbilt
0.3167 Kentucky


Notre Dame:

0.7231 Notre Dame

The one thing that jumps out on the 5-yr win pct. list by conference in quintiles is that the ACC only has three teams in the top 2 quintiles (red and green fonts, combined) while the other 4 P5 conferences have a lot more. This illustrates the perceived on-the-field performance weakness of the ACC compared with the other conferences.

PAC12 is next weakest performing conference with only 4 teams in top two quintiles.

(06-19-2016 08:50 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 09:21 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  A few days ago, I began grouping the P5 teams into Quintiles (5 equal-sized groupings of 13 teams each), in various attributes (for instance: attendance, market, revenue, etc).

I just completed the Football 5-year Win-Loss measure.

Listed below is the Football P5 + Notre Dame, Conference-by-Conference, Team-by-Team, W/L 5 Season Results:

The is organized by 5 year Football W/L percentage Total all opponents, by Conference


EDIT: Note: I will try to show the 5 Quintiles, within each conference, by use of color fonts.

ACC:

0.8529 Florida State
0.8235 Clemson
0.7231 Louisville
0.6061 Virginia Tech
0.6000 North Carolina
0.5714 Miami FL
0.5538 Duke
0.5455 Georgia Tech
0.5156 NC State
0.5077 Pittsburgh
0.4355 Syracuse
0.3770 Virginia
0.3710 Boston College
0.3443 Wake Forest

Big 12:

0.7692 Oklahoma
0.7692 Baylor
0.7231 Oklahoma State
0.7031 TCU
0.6769 Kansas State
0.5625 Texas
0.5625 West Virginia
0.5079 Texas Tech
0.3226 Iowa State
0.1500 Kansas

Big Ten:

0.8358 Ohio State
0.7941 Michigan State
0.7206 Wisconsin
0.6515 Nebraska
0.6406 Michigan
0.6032 Penn State
0.5846 Iowa
0.5714 Northwestern
0.5625 Rutgers
0.4844 Minnesota
0.3871 Illinois
0.3710 Maryland
0.3279 Indiana
0.3065 Purdue

PAC 12:

0.8382 Oregon
0.7941 Stanford
0.6667 Southern Cal
0.6418 UCLA
0.6061 Arizona State
0.5873 Utah
0.5758 Washington
0.5692 Arizona
0.4194 Oregon State
0.4032 Washington State
0.3871 California
0.2258 Colorado

SEC:

0.8986 Alabama
0.7692 LSU
0.7463 Georgia
0.6719 South Carolina
0.6615 Texas A&M
0.6308 Missouri
0.6308 Mississippi State
0.6094 Florida
0.5846 Auburn
0.5625 Mississippi
0.5238 Arkansas
0.5000 Tennessee
0.4921 Vanderbilt
0.3167 Kentucky


Notre Dame:

0.7231 Notre Dame

The one thing that jumps out on the 5-yr win pct. list by conference in quintiles is that the ACC only has three teams in the top 2 quintiles (red and green fonts, combined) while the other 4 P5 conferences have a lot more. This illustrates the perceived on-the-field performance weakness of the ACC compared with the other conferences.

PAC12 is next weakest performing conference with only 4 teams in top two quintiles.

Even more specifically, it makes clear what the ACC is missing...the second tier. We've got the top tier now, FSU and Clemson have been able to compete with anyone the last 3-4 years.

But the ACC has not elevated anyone to that second tier of "very good" yet. Louisville is the top candidate for that second tier, Duke and UNC are flirting with it, and certainly Miami and Virginia Tech at the very least definitely have the potential to be there.

Establishing 3-4 teams in that second quintile is the next step forward.

(06-21-2016 08:07 AM)Lou_C Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 08:50 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 09:21 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  A few days ago, I began grouping the P5 teams into Quintiles (5 equal-sized groupings of 13 teams each), in various attributes (for instance: attendance, market, revenue, etc).

I just completed the Football 5-year Win-Loss measure.

Listed below is the Football P5 + Notre Dame, Conference-by-Conference, Team-by-Team, W/L 5 Season Results:

The is organized by 5 year Football W/L percentage Total all opponents, by Conference


EDIT: Note: I will try to show the 5 Quintiles, within each conference, by use of color fonts.

ACC:

0.8529 Florida State
0.8235 Clemson
0.7231 Louisville
0.6061 Virginia Tech
0.6000 North Carolina
0.5714 Miami FL
0.5538 Duke
0.5455 Georgia Tech
0.5156 NC State
0.5077 Pittsburgh
0.4355 Syracuse
0.3770 Virginia
0.3710 Boston College
0.3443 Wake Forest

Big 12:

0.7692 Oklahoma
0.7692 Baylor
0.7231 Oklahoma State
0.7031 TCU
0.6769 Kansas State
0.5625 Texas
0.5625 West Virginia
0.5079 Texas Tech
0.3226 Iowa State
0.1500 Kansas

Big Ten:

0.8358 Ohio State
0.7941 Michigan State
0.7206 Wisconsin
0.6515 Nebraska
0.6406 Michigan
0.6032 Penn State
0.5846 Iowa
0.5714 Northwestern
0.5625 Rutgers
0.4844 Minnesota
0.3871 Illinois
0.3710 Maryland
0.3279 Indiana
0.3065 Purdue

PAC 12:

0.8382 Oregon
0.7941 Stanford
0.6667 Southern Cal
0.6418 UCLA
0.6061 Arizona State
0.5873 Utah
0.5758 Washington
0.5692 Arizona
0.4194 Oregon State
0.4032 Washington State
0.3871 California
0.2258 Colorado

SEC:

0.8986 Alabama
0.7692 LSU
0.7463 Georgia
0.6719 South Carolina
0.6615 Texas A&M
0.6308 Missouri
0.6308 Mississippi State
0.6094 Florida
0.5846 Auburn
0.5625 Mississippi
0.5238 Arkansas
0.5000 Tennessee
0.4921 Vanderbilt
0.3167 Kentucky


Notre Dame:

0.7231 Notre Dame

The one thing that jumps out on the 5-yr win pct. list by conference in quintiles is that the ACC only has three teams in the top 2 quintiles (red and green fonts, combined) while the other 4 P5 conferences have a lot more. This illustrates the perceived on-the-field performance weakness of the ACC compared with the other conferences.

PAC12 is next weakest performing conference with only 4 teams in top two quintiles.

Even more specifically, it makes clear what the ACC is missing...the second tier. We've got the top tier now, FSU and Clemson have been able to compete with anyone the last 3-4 years.

But the ACC has not elevated anyone to that second tier of "very good" yet. Louisville is the top candidate for that second tier, Duke and UNC are flirting with it, and certainly Miami and Virginia Tech at the very least definitely have the potential to be there.

Establishing 3-4 teams in that second quintile is the next step forward.

Since Louisville is currently in the top tier, I assume you think that status is a little inflated by not having played in a P5 conference for most of this time. But I'm not sure that qualifies them for relegation to the third tier, flirting with the second.

There are only 26 spots in the top two tiers, so if Miami, Va Tech or UNC were to break through, it has to be at the expense of another conference. The fact is, other than the SEC which takes up 8 spots, the rest is pretty balanced. And the Big 12, which has half its members in the top two quintiles, also doesn't leave a lot of room for the B1G, PAC and ACC.

The current breakdown:
SEC...8
B12...5
B1G..5
PAC...4
ACC..3.6 **

** counting ND's 5 games against ACC as 0.6

(06-19-2016 08:45 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 04:40 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Here are Win% for the last 10 years vs. P5 only (well, plus Notre Dame and BYU):

Rk Team Pct
1 Ohio State 0.806
2 Alabama 0.776
3 Oregon 0.770
4 Oklahoma 0.736
5 LSU 0.709
6 USC 0.702
7 Florida State 0.694
8 Georgia 0.667
9 Clemson 0.658
10 Boise State 0.654
11 Wisconsin 0.653
12 Florida 0.650
13 Oklahoma State 0.641
14 Virginia Tech 0.640
15 TCU 0.627
16 Stanford 0.624
17 Michigan State 0.619
18 Notre Dame 0.604
19 Texas 0.598
20 Missouri 0.596
21 Penn State 0.594
22 West Virginia 0.570
23 Louisville 0.563
24 Auburn 0.556
25 Utah 0.553
26 Nebraska 0.552
27 Iowa 0.551
28 South Carolina 0.539
29 Georgia Tech 0.532
30 Michigan 0.529
31 Cincinnati 0.525
32 UCLA 0.513
33 Arizona State 0.509
34 Kansas State 0.500
35 Baylor 0.490
36 Oregon State 0.486
37 Northwestern 0.485
38 Pittsburgh 0.480
39 Texas A&M 0.479
39 Texas Tech 0.479
41 North Carolina 0.475
42 Arizona 0.471
43 BYU 0.469
44 Miami 0.465
45 Arkansas 0.458
46 California 0.440
47 Houston 0.440
48 Rutgers 0.435
49 Connecticut 0.433
50 Boston College 0.430
51 Mississippi State 0.400
51 South Florida 0.400
53 Tennessee 0.396
54 Washington 0.394
55 Wake Forest 0.392
56 Navy 0.381
57 Mississippi 0.376
58 NC State 0.367
59 Maryland 0.351
59 Virginia 0.351
61 Toledo 0.318
62 East Carolina 0.314
63 Minnesota 0.298
64 Fresno State 0.296
65 Illinois 0.295
66 Duke 0.292
67 Syracuse 0.291
68 Vanderbilt 0.287
69 Central Florida 0.286
70 Nevada 0.280
71 Kentucky 0.277
71 Purdue 0.277
73 Washington State 0.265
74 Northern Illinois 0.261
75 Hawaii 0.259
76 Bowling Green 0.250
77 Iowa State 0.245
78 Kansas 0.239
79 Indiana 0.218
80 Ball State 0.211
81 Louisiana Tech 0.208
82 Colorado 0.196


I was getting ready to publish this on my blog and thought you guys might want a preview first.
source: http://www.bcftoys.com/10-year-results/

A few things jump out at me from your ten-year list (wins vs P5's):

1. Boise is good
2. Cincinnati does pretty well.
3. Within the top 50, only 5 non-P5 teams:
Boise State
Cincinnati
BYU
Houston
Connecticut
4. For P5's vs. P5's, Colorado, Indiana, Kansas and Iowa State are pretty bad.

I have been tracking FBS performance for six years. Out of curiosity, I calculated the win % of those five non-P5 teams for that more recent period. Of the five, the only one whose win% did not decline from its ten year average was Houston, and that was thanks to last year's outstanding record of 3-0 (Louisville, Vandy and Florida State).

It appears the G5 schools aren't gaining ground.

Boise's performance is without question the strongest by far. While UConn and Cincy's wins have largely come at the expense of Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers and Vanderbilt, Boise has beaten Washington twice, BYU twice, Arizona, Arizona State, Georgia, Utah, and Virginia Tech as well as Virginia and Oregon State. And their losses are nothing to be ashamed of: TCU, Michigan St, Washington, BYU (twice), Ole Miss (in 2014) and Oregon St.

If program strength were the only qualification for P5 membership, Boise would be a lock. Unfortunately for them, it's probably not even third on the list.

(06-21-2016 09:10 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-21-2016 08:07 AM)Lou_C Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 08:50 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 09:21 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  A few days ago, I began grouping the P5 teams into Quintiles (5 equal-sized groupings of 13 teams each), in various attributes (for instance: attendance, market, revenue, etc).

I just completed the Football 5-year Win-Loss measure.

Listed below is the Football P5 + Notre Dame, Conference-by-Conference, Team-by-Team, W/L 5 Season Results:

The is organized by 5 year Football W/L percentage Total all opponents, by Conference


EDIT: Note: I will try to show the 5 Quintiles, within each conference, by use of color fonts.

ACC:

0.8529 Florida State
0.8235 Clemson
0.7231 Louisville
0.6061 Virginia Tech
0.6000 North Carolina
0.5714 Miami FL
0.5538 Duke
0.5455 Georgia Tech
0.5156 NC State
0.5077 Pittsburgh
0.4355 Syracuse
0.3770 Virginia
0.3710 Boston College
0.3443 Wake Forest

Big 12:

0.7692 Oklahoma
0.7692 Baylor
0.7231 Oklahoma State
0.7031 TCU
0.6769 Kansas State
0.5625 Texas
0.5625 West Virginia
0.5079 Texas Tech
0.3226 Iowa State
0.1500 Kansas

Big Ten:

0.8358 Ohio State
0.7941 Michigan State
0.7206 Wisconsin
0.6515 Nebraska
0.6406 Michigan
0.6032 Penn State
0.5846 Iowa
0.5714 Northwestern
0.5625 Rutgers
0.4844 Minnesota
0.3871 Illinois
0.3710 Maryland
0.3279 Indiana
0.3065 Purdue

PAC 12:

0.8382 Oregon
0.7941 Stanford
0.6667 Southern Cal
0.6418 UCLA
0.6061 Arizona State
0.5873 Utah
0.5758 Washington
0.5692 Arizona
0.4194 Oregon State
0.4032 Washington State
0.3871 California
0.2258 Colorado

SEC:

0.8986 Alabama
0.7692 LSU
0.7463 Georgia
0.6719 South Carolina
0.6615 Texas A&M
0.6308 Missouri
0.6308 Mississippi State
0.6094 Florida
0.5846 Auburn
0.5625 Mississippi
0.5238 Arkansas
0.5000 Tennessee
0.4921 Vanderbilt
0.3167 Kentucky


Notre Dame:

0.7231 Notre Dame

The one thing that jumps out on the 5-yr win pct. list by conference in quintiles is that the ACC only has three teams in the top 2 quintiles (red and green fonts, combined) while the other 4 P5 conferences have a lot more. This illustrates the perceived on-the-field performance weakness of the ACC compared with the other conferences.

PAC12 is next weakest performing conference with only 4 teams in top two quintiles.

Even more specifically, it makes clear what the ACC is missing...the second tier. We've got the top tier now, FSU and Clemson have been able to compete with anyone the last 3-4 years.

But the ACC has not elevated anyone to that second tier of "very good" yet. Louisville is the top candidate for that second tier, Duke and UNC are flirting with it, and certainly Miami and Virginia Tech at the very least definitely have the potential to be there.

Establishing 3-4 teams in that second quintile is the next step forward.

Since Louisville is currently in the top tier, I assume you think that status is a little inflated by not having played in a P5 conference for most of this time. But I'm not sure that qualifies them for relegation to the third tier, flirting with the second.

There are only 26 spots in the top two tiers, so if Miami, Va Tech or UNC were to break through, it has to be at the expense of another conference. The fact is, other than the SEC which takes up 8 spots, the rest is pretty balanced. And the Big 12, which has half its members in the top two quintiles, also doesn't leave a lot of room for the B1G, PAC and ACC.

The current breakdown:
SEC...8
B12...5
B1G..5
PAC...4
ACC..3.6 **

** counting ND's 5 games against ACC as 0.6

Yes, I do think Louisville is more of a green long term. I think you take one spot from the SEC and/or one from the Big 12.

(06-19-2016 09:21 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  A few days ago, I began grouping the P5 teams into Quintiles (5 equal-sized groupings of 13 teams each), in various attributes (for instance: attendance, market, revenue, etc).

I just completed the Football 5-year Win-Loss measure.

Listed below is the Football P5 + Notre Dame, Conference-by-Conference, Team-by-Team, W/L 5 Season Results:

The is organized by 5 year Football W/L percentage Total all opponents, by Conference


EDIT: Note: I will try to show the 5 Quintiles, within each conference, by use of color fonts.

ACC:

0.8529 Florida State
0.8235 Clemson
0.7231 Louisville
0.6061 Virginia Tech
0.6000 North Carolina
0.5714 Miami FL
0.5538 Duke
0.5455 Georgia Tech
0.5156 NC State
0.5077 Pittsburgh
0.4355 Syracuse
0.3770 Virginia
0.3710 Boston College
0.3443 Wake Forest

The problem with this list is that it includes ALL FBS teams. That means you get just as much credit for beating a Sun Belt team as you do for beating a Big Ten team. That, in my opinion, is the biggest difference between the FBS win% of the ACC vs. other P5's -- ACC teams, on average, play a much tougher OOC schedule. (That's why I presented the alternative P5-only win% list, which not coincidentally is also more favorable to the ACC, with 4 teams in the top 25 and 9 teams in the top 50).

(06-21-2016 08:07 AM)Lou_C Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 08:50 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 09:21 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  A few days ago, I began grouping the P5 teams into Quintiles (5 equal-sized groupings of 13 teams each), in various attributes (for instance: attendance, market, revenue, etc).

I just completed the Football 5-year Win-Loss measure.

Listed below is the Football P5 + Notre Dame, Conference-by-Conference, Team-by-Team, W/L 5 Season Results:

The is organized by 5 year Football W/L percentage Total all opponents, by Conference


EDIT: Note: I will try to show the 5 Quintiles, within each conference, by use of color fonts.

ACC:

0.8529 Florida State
0.8235 Clemson
0.7231 Louisville
0.6061 Virginia Tech
0.6000 North Carolina
0.5714 Miami FL
0.5538 Duke
0.5455 Georgia Tech
0.5156 NC State
0.5077 Pittsburgh
0.4355 Syracuse
0.3770 Virginia
0.3710 Boston College
0.3443 Wake Forest

Big 12:

0.7692 Oklahoma
0.7692 Baylor
0.7231 Oklahoma State
0.7031 TCU
0.6769 Kansas State
0.5625 Texas
0.5625 West Virginia
0.5079 Texas Tech
0.3226 Iowa State
0.1500 Kansas

Big Ten:

0.8358 Ohio State
0.7941 Michigan State
0.7206 Wisconsin
0.6515 Nebraska
0.6406 Michigan
0.6032 Penn State
0.5846 Iowa
0.5714 Northwestern
0.5625 Rutgers
0.4844 Minnesota
0.3871 Illinois
0.3710 Maryland
0.3279 Indiana
0.3065 Purdue

PAC 12:

0.8382 Oregon
0.7941 Stanford
0.6667 Southern Cal
0.6418 UCLA
0.6061 Arizona State
0.5873 Utah
0.5758 Washington
0.5692 Arizona
0.4194 Oregon State
0.4032 Washington State
0.3871 California
0.2258 Colorado

SEC:

0.8986 Alabama
0.7692 LSU
0.7463 Georgia
0.6719 South Carolina
0.6615 Texas A&M
0.6308 Missouri
0.6308 Mississippi State
0.6094 Florida
0.5846 Auburn
0.5625 Mississippi
0.5238 Arkansas
0.5000 Tennessee
0.4921 Vanderbilt
0.3167 Kentucky


Notre Dame:

0.7231 Notre Dame

The one thing that jumps out on the 5-yr win pct. list by conference in quintiles is that the ACC only has three teams in the top 2 quintiles (red and green fonts, combined) while the other 4 P5 conferences have a lot more. This illustrates the perceived on-the-field performance weakness of the ACC compared with the other conferences.

PAC12 is next weakest performing conference with only 4 teams in top two quintiles.

Even more specifically, it makes clear what the ACC is missing...the second tier. We've got the top tier now, FSU and Clemson have been able to compete with anyone the last 3-4 years.

But the ACC has not elevated anyone to that second tier of "very good" yet. Louisville is the top candidate for that second tier, Duke and UNC are flirting with it, and certainly Miami and Virginia Tech at the very least definitely have the potential to be there.

Establishing 3-4 teams in that second quintile is the next step forward.

Exactly there is no 2nd tier program. The last 3 years Duke, Georgia Tech, and UNC were 2nd tier on the particular year. GT arguably had a 1st tier season in 2014, but no one has been able to maintain.

I agree Louisville is the closest. Duke honestly may be at their realistic peak. We don't know with UNC. GT doesn't recruit well enough to annually win 9 or 10 games.

As you said Virginia Tech and Miami are the next most capable of being in that 9-10 win ranked 15-25 region in most years.

If just Louisvlle and one other team can consistently reach the top 25, this could be a really good football league. It's close very close...

(06-21-2016 11:31 AM)GTTiger Wrote:  

(06-21-2016 08:07 AM)Lou_C Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 08:50 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  

(06-19-2016 09:21 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  A few days ago, I began grouping the P5 teams into Quintiles (5 equal-sized groupings of 13 teams each), in various attributes (for instance: attendance, market, revenue, etc).

I just completed the Football 5-year Win-Loss measure.

Listed below is the Football P5 + Notre Dame, Conference-by-Conference, Team-by-Team, W/L 5 Season Results:

The is organized by 5 year Football W/L percentage Total all opponents, by Conference


EDIT: Note: I will try to show the 5 Quintiles, within each conference, by use of color fonts.

ACC:

0.8529 Florida State
0.8235 Clemson
0.7231 Louisville
0.6061 Virginia Tech
0.6000 North Carolina
0.5714 Miami FL
0.5538 Duke
0.5455 Georgia Tech
0.5156 NC State
0.5077 Pittsburgh
0.4355 Syracuse
0.3770 Virginia
0.3710 Boston College
0.3443 Wake Forest

Big 12:

0.7692 Oklahoma
0.7692 Baylor
0.7231 Oklahoma State
0.7031 TCU
0.6769 Kansas State
0.5625 Texas
0.5625 West Virginia
0.5079 Texas Tech
0.3226 Iowa State
0.1500 Kansas

Big Ten:

0.8358 Ohio State
0.7941 Michigan State
0.7206 Wisconsin
0.6515 Nebraska
0.6406 Michigan
0.6032 Penn State
0.5846 Iowa
0.5714 Northwestern
0.5625 Rutgers
0.4844 Minnesota
0.3871 Illinois
0.3710 Maryland
0.3279 Indiana
0.3065 Purdue

PAC 12:

0.8382 Oregon
0.7941 Stanford
0.6667 Southern Cal
0.6418 UCLA
0.6061 Arizona State
0.5873 Utah
0.5758 Washington
0.5692 Arizona
0.4194 Oregon State
0.4032 Washington State
0.3871 California
0.2258 Colorado

SEC:

0.8986 Alabama
0.7692 LSU
0.7463 Georgia
0.6719 South Carolina
0.6615 Texas A&M
0.6308 Missouri
0.6308 Mississippi State
0.6094 Florida
0.5846 Auburn
0.5625 Mississippi
0.5238 Arkansas
0.5000 Tennessee
0.4921 Vanderbilt
0.3167 Kentucky


Notre Dame:

0.7231 Notre Dame

The one thing that jumps out on the 5-yr win pct. list by conference in quintiles is that the ACC only has three teams in the top 2 quintiles (red and green fonts, combined) while the other 4 P5 conferences have a lot more. This illustrates the perceived on-the-field performance weakness of the ACC compared with the other conferences.

PAC12 is next weakest performing conference with only 4 teams in top two quintiles.

Even more specifically, it makes clear what the ACC is missing...the second tier. We've got the top tier now, FSU and Clemson have been able to compete with anyone the last 3-4 years.

But the ACC has not elevated anyone to that second tier of "very good" yet. Louisville is the top candidate for that second tier, Duke and UNC are flirting with it, and certainly Miami and Virginia Tech at the very least definitely have the potential to be there.

Establishing 3-4 teams in that second quintile is the next step forward.

Exactly there is no 2nd tier program. The last 3 years Duke, Georgia Tech, and UNC were 2nd tier on the particular year. GT arguably had a 1st tier season in 2014, but no one has been able to maintain.

I agree Louisville is the closest. Duke honestly may be at their realistic peak. We don't know with UNC. GT doesn't recruit well enough to annually win 9 or 10 games.

As you said Virginia Tech and Miami are the next most capable of being in that 9-10 win ranked 15-25 region in most years.

If just Louisvlle and one other team can consistently reach the top 25, this could be a really good football league. It's close very close...

I am closest to agreeing with this POV. We need a total of [b]4 ACC Teams consistently[/b] in the top two W/L performance quintiles. Five teams would be great!