(06-17-2016 08:51 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  What this article actually tells me is that the current cord cutting phenom is fake. Its not a real model that is economically sustainable. Its a model that works as long as major players are willing to lose money. Like the article states, Netflix is actually cash flow negative to the tune of almost a billion a year and it requires huge investor cash infusions annually to operate---and that's while many of their content agreements are still incredibly cheap and well below market. If they started today---they could not assemble the same inventory of content for what they currently are paying. Those deals are going to run out eventually.

EXACTLY!

What people are missing about Netflix is that it is basically becoming Disney online. Now they also have a long term deals with open roads films and a few smaller studios. But being the exclusive home for all things Disney/Pixar/Marvel/Lucas films is huge. This has been the targeted goal of Netflix since they got the rights in 2012. Now we will start to see the targeted goal of this September when the Disney rights start. Another thing is that a lot of the original content that Netflix has bought recently has come from ABC studios.

solo,

In my opinion, this just means that the industry needs to rethink what "success" means, in terms of being a "hit" show. And therefore, what price they can charge for advertising slots within the show and what carriage fees they can charge distributors.




At the end of the day, I do think Netflix can survive. But I don't think it can do that with the model it has currently.

(06-17-2016 09:27 PM)solohawks Wrote:  One aspect of cord cutting that does not get mentioned enough is the on demand nature it allows. I prefer Netflix over.a cable station because it allows me to watch what I want to watch when I want to watch it. A traditional cable station does not allow that

This is why event programming is prospering. Your show/game better be an event that enough people want to fit into their schedule if you want it to be a hit

I rarely watch anything other than sports at its designated broadcast time. If you have cable, the DVR essentially shifts broadcast time to whatever you want. Before DVRs. people used VCRs to do the same thing. Heck, Many programs are currently available in the "on demand" menu of my cable system--so you don't even have to DVR many of the shows you want to watch.

Sports is about the only thing I watch live. Though, I will admit, I've started watching Game of Thrones and the Walking Dead episodes live because they are so popular that twitter and social media sites will often ruin plot twists if you don't watch them live.

As a person who rarely watches television, I use my Apple TV.

I subscribe to Netflix and Netflix DVD (for blu rays). I stream Youtube media.

I also listen to podcasts and books through Audible.

Additionally, my local library offers streaming videos.

Recently, I watched 11.22.63 through Hulu and, then, dropped it.
I streamed all 10 hours of the OJ show from ESPN.

There is plenty of content.

(06-17-2016 01:11 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Netflix doesn't need to -- and won't be able to purchase every hit show: they don't bring in enough revenue.

Not up front ... they'll be able to get many hit shows eventually, since corporations want to show money this quarter, and there will always be some existing content in the catalog that has never been on Netflix where putting it on Netflix for a while will improve returns.

And with their globalization, they will be bidding for world streaming rights on content and generating income from around the world on it, while competitors will be either be bidding for world rights on content and generating income from the US alone, or else be bidding for US only rights and have their bid discounted by the extra contracting costs of licensing the content for multiple streaming markets.

(06-18-2016 07:00 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  What people are missing about Netflix is that it is basically becoming Disney online. Now they also have a long term deals with open roads films and a few smaller studios. But being the exclusive home for all things Disney/Pixar/Marvel/Lucas films is huge. This has been the targeted goal of Netflix since they got the rights in 2012. Now we will start to see the targeted goal of this September when the Disney rights start. Another thing is that a lot of the original content that Netflix has bought recently has come from ABC studios.

Part of the shakiness of "Hulu will kill Netflix" scenarios is that the Mouse does not want to be locked in to Hulu alone. They value their independence.

(06-18-2016 07:00 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  What people are missing about Netflix is that it is basically becoming Disney online. Now they also have a long term deals with open roads films and a few smaller studios. But being the exclusive home for all things Disney/Pixar/Marvel/Lucas films is huge. This has been the targeted goal of Netflix since they got the rights in 2012. Now we will start to see the targeted goal of this September when the Disney rights start. Another thing is that a lot of the original content that Netflix has bought recently has come from ABC studios.

Not a bad deal for Disney.
They get paid whether Netflix makes money or not but most Netflix deals apparently require that Netflix turn over information about how and when people watched. Bet Disney is getting some demographic information as well.

Basically Netflix is paying Disney to give Disney a lot of streaming data they couldn't get on their own.

When Netflix tops out and there is little growth room left if they aren't profitable, Netflix dies.

If Netflix is profitable the stock is no longer a growth stock and becomes more of a utility in nature, the price falls for the stock and guess who has arena sized vaults of money? Disney.

Wouldn't shock me at all if 5-10 years down the road Disney doesn't turn around and buy Netflix when the growth speculation is priced out of the stock. Instead of selling mom and dad 5 Disney DVD's or digital sales, let mom and dad pay $12 a month for them for the next 18 years.

(06-22-2016 04:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(06-18-2016 07:00 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  What people are missing about Netflix is that it is basically becoming Disney online. Now they also have a long term deals with open roads films and a few smaller studios. But being the exclusive home for all things Disney/Pixar/Marvel/Lucas films is huge. This has been the targeted goal of Netflix since they got the rights in 2012. Now we will start to see the targeted goal of this September when the Disney rights start. Another thing is that a lot of the original content that Netflix has bought recently has come from ABC studios.

Not a bad deal for Disney.
They get paid whether Netflix makes money or not but most Netflix deals apparently require that Netflix turn over information about how and when people watched. Bet Disney is getting some demographic information as well.

Basically Netflix is paying Disney to give Disney a lot of streaming data they couldn't get on their own.

When Netflix tops out and there is little growth room left if they aren't profitable, Netflix dies.

If Netflix is profitable the stock is no longer a growth stock and becomes more of a utility in nature, the price falls for the stock and guess who has arena sized vaults of money? Disney.

Wouldn't shock me at all if 5-10 years down the road Disney doesn't turn around and buy Netflix when the growth speculation is priced out of the stock. Instead of selling mom and dad 5 Disney DVD's or digital sales, let mom and dad pay $12 a month for them for the next 18 years.

I wouldn't have thought that a couple of years ago, but now I think you can make an argument that digital ownership is becoming less desirable for corporations and consumers alike. Apple is apparently looking hard at removing the purchasing aspect of iTunes and running everything through Apple Music and a monthly fee, a la paid versions of Pandora and Spotify. So it's entirely possible that Disney eventually pursues this avenue, though it'll take a while because there's still places on the map where the internet is neither fast enough not steady enough to make on-demand streaming immediately and universally viable.

There is a push for monthly fee, unlimited views/watches content in a lot of areas, some you might not even think about. Like instead of buying textbooks, students log in to an ipad app (or whatever) that lets them view the latest revision of textbooks related to the classes they're enrolled in. The school pays a ga-zillion dollars for that, and the costs are built into tuition and fees, like they are now for IT services.

A constant monthly revenue stream is way more desirable than having to constantly sell the new product. Look at wwe, they cannibalized the insane amount of money they make off the wrestlemania ppv in order to get a constant revenue stream through the wwe network.

TiVo is another example. They prefer you pay a monthly subscription fee v. a lifetime one time payment

Getting a consistent revenue stream is excellent for publicly traded companies

Netflix doesn't necessarily have to charge more, just make sure everyone has their own unique account. I know people that share a Netflix account with 5 or more other people.

(07-14-2016 06:17 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Netflix doesn't necessarily have to charge more, just make sure everyone has their own unique account. I know people that share a Netflix account with 5 or more other people.

They've already split off a single-view-at-a-time SD account from the multiple-views, HD account. Next step is to split off a 3 views at a time HD account at the current price as they increase the price of the over 3 views HD again.

But that'll be a while down the track, first they have the organic growth from the almost-global streaming expansion to harness. It's most likely after that growth looks to be peaking that they'll start to get more aggressive about making people pay more for multiple simultaneous access.

(06-15-2016 10:00 PM)goofus Wrote:  Amazon prime is similar to Netflix. You pay for commercial free videos. In fact, their streaming app is probably nicer than Netflix, let's you skip ahead or back 10 seconds and tells the name of the actors on the screen at any time if you are curious. It's pretty nice.

I've tried AZ Prime and liked it, but the deal breaker is having to pay $100 or whatever it is up front for the year. I prefer just paying $9 a month for Netflix so I stick with Netflix.