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Off the Island or On
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 10:52 AM)brista21 Wrote:  
(06-15-2016 10:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  As for 4 of your arbitrary relegation group who weren't in the bottom 8 in attendance, 4 year averages:
Texas Tech 57,604 (30th overall-top half of P5)
Iowa St. 54,838 (36th overall-just below top half of P5)
Rutgers 48,523 (45th overall)
Oregon St. 41,161 (58th overall-behind only BYU & ECU of non-P5)

Hence why all 4 are safe. They may not be great, but they have people who are interested in them.

Correctimundo! Absolutely right.
06-15-2016 10:57 AM
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Artifice Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Off the Island or On
These threads are so ridiculous in general. However, I am continually amazed at the amount of reliance on single years of data to move mountains in conference alignment. ADs around the country would laugh at how stupid doing that for ANY metric is.

Case in point:

Quote:1. Temple att: 44,159

(sorry Temple fans - its not personal, just proving a point)

That average was impacted by out of conference home games against Penn State (69,176) and Notre Dame (69,280). They only drew more than 31k for one other home game - 35k for homecoming vs Tulane. This was also the best season of Temple football since ??? Yet they are #1 on your "promote" list.

This type of myopic analysis is used so frequently on this forum that it makes you question if the employers are really that stupid, or just trolling out of desperate boredom in the offseason?

I get that there's nothing else to talk about, but if you are going to take yourselves that seriously, at least improve your rationale; or else just recognize it for what it is - pointless, unsupported conjecture & wishful thinking.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2016 11:08 AM by Artifice.)
06-15-2016 11:00 AM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 11:00 AM)Artifice Wrote:  These threads are so ridiculous in general. However, I am continually amazed at the amount of reliance on single years of data to move mountains in conference alignment. ADs around the country would laugh at how stupid doing that for ANY metric is.

Case in point:

Quote:1. Temple att: 44,159

(sorry Temple fans - its not personal, just proving a point)

That average was impacted by out of conference home games against Penn State (69,176) and Notre Dame (69,280). They only drew more than 31k for one other home game - 35k for homecoming vs Tulane. This was also the best season of Temple football since ??? Yet they are #1 on your "promote" list.

This type of myopic analysis is used so frequently on this forum that it makes you question if the employers are really that stupid, or just trolling out of desperate boredom in the offseason?

I get that there's nothing else to talk about, but if you are going to take yourselves that seriously, at least improve your rationale; or else just recognize it for what it is - pointless, unsupported conjecture & wishful thinking.
Artifice, I agree with your point. That's why time-averaged smoothing functions may be more appropriate. So if someone wants to spend the time to acquire and report the last five years or ten years of data, that would help.
06-15-2016 11:13 AM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 10:30 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(06-15-2016 10:22 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(06-15-2016 10:14 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(06-15-2016 09:23 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(06-14-2016 10:31 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  I have 'religiously' followed this board for three years. But I have rarely started a thread.

This is an easy subject. My thesis is that most of us would like to reconstitute the P5. According to our own precepts.

Many of us would like to do away with P's and G's. (not gonna happen right now)

We are smack dab in the middle of the silly season. Sooo--

I propose we nominate 8 teams from the P5 that should be 'relegated', and 8 teams from the G5 that would be 'promoted'.

I suggest that there are zero rules of play, you say what you want for ANY reason you may have. Personal or your own Logic. Pedigree, Academics, Financial, Market, Performance, Affinity, Hatred, Love.

Provide your 'reasoning' if you wish. Hopefully it will at least moderately logical.

Remember to think of FB AND BB and also all other sports.

Excluding Notre Dame, BYU and Army.

I will start:

Relegated:

Wake Forest
Vanderbilt
Iowa State
Washington State
Rutgers
Boston College
Oregon State
Texas Tech

Promoted

Connecticut
Cincinnati
Houston
Boise State
Memphis
Colorado State
East Carolina
San Diego State

I will respond to my own OP with one Relegation and Promotion List, based on some sort of principled logic:

This one is based purely on who is in the P5 that had the NCAA-reported lowest average per game HOME FB Attendance in 2015, and who is in the G5 that had the highest Attendance:

RELEGATE:

1. Duke att: 26,427
2. Wake Forest att: 26,674
3. Kansas att: 27,282
4. Washington State att: 29,407
5. Boston College att: 30,205
6. Syracuse att: 32,102
7. Vanderbilt att: 32,134
8. Northwestern att: 33,366

PROMOTE:

1. Temple att: 44,159
2. Memphis att: 43,802
3. East Carolina att: 43,274
4. Cincinnati att: 37,096
5. Houston att: 33,980
6. Boise State att: 33,612
7. UCF att: 30,065
8. San Diego State att: 29,066

How is it logical to promote UCF and SDSU with lower attendance than anyone you are demoting?

Well, of course, it is not logical to do that, on the attendance metric alone. There are at least 250 measures of merit.

Suggest another?

Then why demote 8 when there is no rationale behind it?

Ok, I will try to help.

The thinking is that UCF and SDSU have attendence that is close to schools being demoted even though they don't have the benefit of playing in a P5 conference. Getting promoted to a P5 attendence should help their attendence.

Meanwhile the teams getting demoted have attendance propped up by the P5 conference and their attendance will fall off a cliff once they get demoted.

End result will be a gain in average attendance for the P5 conferences.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2016 03:47 PM by goofus.)
06-15-2016 12:19 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 09:58 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(06-15-2016 09:01 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-14-2016 10:31 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  I propose we nominate 8 teams from the P5 that should be 'relegated', and 8 teams from the G5 that would be 'promoted'.

I suggest that there are zero rules of play, you say what you want for ANY reason you may have. Personal or your own Logic. Pedigree, Academics, Financial, Market, Performance, Affinity, Hatred, Love.

My choice: absolutely zero change. Conferences and schools should be free to associate themselves with whoever they want based on whatever criteria that they want without any type of forced promotion/relegation system. If the Big Ten would rather have Rutgers even if they go winless in both football and basketball because of academic and TV market reasons, then that's their choice and they shouldn't be forced to take any school that they don't want to associate with based on on-the-field/court reasons.
Frank, I completely agree with your sentiment, in all its aspects. But my thesis is that it is a forced relegation/promotion. As we know, the discussion is hypothetical. It is a Delphi process that compels thinking.

I get it, but this type of thread always devolves into fans of G5 schools complaining how they should be in the club and then whining about Wake Forest, Rutgers, Iowa State, Washington State, et. al. There's no "thinking" involved outside of people manipulating the criteria to justify why someone's favorite school should be in a power league while Wake Forest should be kicked out (e.g. ECU fans will always say that attendance matters more, UConn fans will always say that being the best academic option that is also near-ish to the NYC market matters more, Houston fans will always say that the Big 12 is losing ground to the SEC in their market, UCF fans will always try to make sheer enrollment size as more of a priority, etc.).
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2016 03:06 PM by Frank the Tank.)
06-15-2016 03:05 PM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Off the Island or On
Attendance is very easily manipulated...it is a horrible metric unless everyone plays by the same reporting rules.

Also, this is about Football but Basketball is also important. Also, look at Director Cup standings.

The OP needed to state this only affected football.
06-15-2016 03:27 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #27
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 11:13 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(06-15-2016 11:00 AM)Artifice Wrote:  These threads are so ridiculous in general. However, I am continually amazed at the amount of reliance on single years of data to move mountains in conference alignment. ADs around the country would laugh at how stupid doing that for ANY metric is.

Case in point:

Quote:1. Temple att: 44,159

(sorry Temple fans - its not personal, just proving a point)

That average was impacted by out of conference home games against Penn State (69,176) and Notre Dame (69,280). They only drew more than 31k for one other home game - 35k for homecoming vs Tulane. This was also the best season of Temple football since ??? Yet they are #1 on your "promote" list.

This type of myopic analysis is used so frequently on this forum that it makes you question if the employers are really that stupid, or just trolling out of desperate boredom in the offseason?

I get that there's nothing else to talk about, but if you are going to take yourselves that seriously, at least improve your rationale; or else just recognize it for what it is - pointless, unsupported conjecture & wishful thinking.
Artifice, I agree with your point. That's why time-averaged smoothing functions may be more appropriate. So if someone wants to spend the time to acquire and report the last five years or ten years of data, that would help.

For Temple, at least, 2015 is a clear outlier:

2010...20,515
2011...28,060
2012...26,580
2013...22,473
2014...23,370
2015...44,159

I'm pretty sure if you were to go back before 2010, the numbers would probably be in the 20-25K range.
06-15-2016 03:35 PM
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58-56 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Off the Island or On
Relegate the criminal programs:
1. Alabama-Tuscaloosa.
2. Penn State.
3. Baylor.
4. Miami.
5. North Carolina.
6. Florida State.

Promote the 12 G5 schools that have never been sanctioned by the NCAA:
Air Force
Bowling Green
Central Michigan
Colorado State
Florida Atlantic
Kent State
North Texas
Ohio
Rice
UAB
Western Michigan

Or else admit that crime pays.
06-15-2016 04:39 PM
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TripleA Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 04:39 PM)58-56 Wrote:  Relegate the criminal programs:
1. Alabama-Tuscaloosa.
2. Penn State.
3. Baylor.
4. Miami.
5. North Carolina.
6. Florida State.

Promote the 12 G5 schools that have never been sanctioned by the NCAA:
Air Force
Bowling Green
Central Michigan
Colorado State
Florida Atlantic
Kent State
North Texas
Ohio
Rice
UAB
Western Michigan

Or else admit that crime pays.

Crime pays in college football and basketball, at least. I thought everybody knew that.
06-15-2016 05:29 PM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 03:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-15-2016 09:58 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(06-15-2016 09:01 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(06-14-2016 10:31 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  I propose we nominate 8 teams from the P5 that should be 'relegated', and 8 teams from the G5 that would be 'promoted'.

I suggest that there are zero rules of play, you say what you want for ANY reason you may have. Personal or your own Logic. Pedigree, Academics, Financial, Market, Performance, Affinity, Hatred, Love.

My choice: absolutely zero change. Conferences and schools should be free to associate themselves with whoever they want based on whatever criteria that they want without any type of forced promotion/relegation system. If the Big Ten would rather have Rutgers even if they go winless in both football and basketball because of academic and TV market reasons, then that's their choice and they shouldn't be forced to take any school that they don't want to associate with based on on-the-field/court reasons.
Frank, I completely agree with your sentiment, in all its aspects. But my thesis is that it is a forced relegation/promotion. As we know, the discussion is hypothetical. It is a Delphi process that compels thinking.

I get it, but this type of thread always devolves into fans of G5 schools complaining how they should be in the club and then whining about Wake Forest, Rutgers, Iowa State, Washington State, et. al. There's no "thinking" involved outside of people manipulating the criteria to justify why someone's favorite school should be in a power league while Wake Forest should be kicked out (e.g. ECU fans will always say that attendance matters more, UConn fans will always say that being the best academic option that is also near-ish to the NYC market matters more, Houston fans will always say that the Big 12 is losing ground to the SEC in their market, UCF fans will always try to make sheer enrollment size as more of a priority, etc.).

Usually a Delphi process starts out as a mess and then ultimately results in participants energetically discussing and then finally agreeing, usually reluctantly, on what matters most and in what comparative proportions. In this case it is just for fun, and we don't have the benefit, or the stress, of sitting down in the same room together.

The process can also be started by simply agreeing on the important measures or metrics and then placing them in an agreed order.

In the case of P's and G's, it is arguable that football matters more than basketball, at this point, for good reason, in 90-95% of the cases. But not always.

Also, the quantity of living alumni is a very key factor. A school with 50,000 living alumni has less pent-up/built-in support than one with 350,000. A very poorly performing team with a huge number of alumni seems to be more desirable to a conference than a great performing team with a very small number of alumni.

Recent Football (and basketball) success on the field/floor is a factor. The discussion here would generally be about just how to 'weight' the years or eras of success. And just how to weight and count wins and losses over weak, medium and strong teams. Ranking Systems and Ratings Systems give us a proxy. We would likely find that on the field/floor success is not a good proxy for market success.

Athletic Dept Revenue becomes a proxy of sorts for 'success'. But not at all perfect. And Revenue is elastic with respect to Conference affiliation.

Endowment size is a significant proxy for success. At least it allows the capacity for 'investment'. Endowment size and Living Alumni count are self proxies.

Potential Eyeballs is a major measure. And there, relative 'Flagship' status and eyeball sharing become the important metrics. The available eyeballs must be apportioned.

Market under or oversaturation is a measure. This is a relative and subjective imprecise term.

New markets are a measure. This is also relative and imprecise.

Academic 'success' is a good measure. But it is very subjective.

Enrollment count is a great measure, and easy to find, but in and of itself it only gives a hint of whether a strong athletic program can be built and sustained.

Average Attendance and stadium/arena capacity utilization is a great measure. It is another relative support proxy.

Pro/College market sharing is an important measure. A college team in a small region having one or more major pro teams has built-in counter bias. Several college teams and pro teams sharing the same medium-sized geographic market usually represent 'oversupply'.

So, so many measures. At least another dozen that are important.

Most of us think about all these things without realizing that we do.

Many P5's would not rightfully measure up to be P5's if the entire landscape were recast today with new 'rules'.

This is simply an opportunity for those who think they are deserving to let off some steam and kick some 'undeserving' folks off the island. In theory. For whatever valid or in-valid reason they want.
06-15-2016 05:40 PM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 04:39 PM)58-56 Wrote:  Relegate the criminal programs:
1. Alabama-Tuscaloosa.
2. Penn State.
3. Baylor.
4. Miami.
5. North Carolina.
6. Florida State.

Promote the 12 G5 schools that have never been sanctioned by the NCAA:
Air Force
Bowling Green
Central Michigan
Colorado State
Florida Atlantic
Kent State
North Texas
Ohio
Rice
UAB
Western Michigan

Or else admit that crime pays.
That's a pretty interesting measure of merit! But it seems that in sports and politics, cheating and crime are not as important as they could be.
06-15-2016 05:45 PM
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IHAVETRIED Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 03:27 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  Attendance is very easily manipulated...it is a horrible metric unless everyone plays by the same reporting rules.

Also, this is about Football but Basketball is also important. Also, look at Director Cup standings.

The OP needed to state this only affected football.

Mark, I focused on FB but BB is a very valid comparison metric. I imagine you could take TOTAL COMBINED FB + BB Attendance for an average year and it would become a proxy for success. FB is more important than basketball, because more people watch FB games than BB games. Typically by a factor of 5-8x. More opptys for merchandise purchases. A program that gets 15000 fans to 14 bb games still gets much less revenue than from 75000 fans going to 6 fb games.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2016 05:54 PM by IHAVETRIED.)
06-15-2016 05:53 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 05:53 PM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  
(06-15-2016 03:27 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  Attendance is very easily manipulated...it is a horrible metric unless everyone plays by the same reporting rules.

Also, this is about Football but Basketball is also important. Also, look at Director Cup standings.

The OP needed to state this only affected football.

Mark, I focused on FB but BB is a very valid comparison metric. I imagine you could take TOTAL COMBINED FB + BB Attendance for an average year and it would become a proxy for success. FB is more important than basketball, because more people watch FB games than BB games. Typically by a factor of 5-8x. More opptys for merchandise purchases. A program that gets 15000 fans to 14 bb games still gets much less revenue than from 75000 fans going to 6 fb games.

UCONN Men's and Women's Basketball each average about 10,000. The Men had 16 home games, while the Women had 14.

10,000 x 30 = 300,000

Hockey also averaged 5,000 x 17 = 85,000

Non-football revenue sports do have an impact for certain schools.
06-15-2016 07:15 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 03:27 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  Attendance is very easily manipulated...it is a horrible metric unless everyone plays by the same reporting rules.

Also, this is about Football but Basketball is also important. Also, look at Director Cup standings.

The OP needed to state this only affected football.

Not only is attendance easily manipulated - schools reporting tickets bought vs. schools reporting actual attendance - but size of stadiums should be considered.

For instance, Cincinnati's football stadium size until last season was 35,000. So, percentage-wise in that time period overall attendance, if what was reported is correct, was more along the lines of 80%+. Nippert is now 40,000 and attendance averaged 93% last year, give or take.

Good premise but lots of different factors to take into consideration.
06-15-2016 08:34 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 12:19 PM)goofus Wrote:  Ok, I will try to help.

The thinking is that UCF and SDSU have attendence that is close to schools being demoted even though they don't have the benefit of playing in a P5 conference. Getting promoted to a P5 attendence should help their attendence.

Meanwhile the teams getting demoted have attendance propped up by the P5 conference and their attendance will fall off a cliff once they get demoted.

End result will be a gain in average attendance for the P5 conferences.

Will it, though? Why penalize Wake and Dook for being small alumni-based private schools that are probably milking just about all they can for support when two schools in pro towns (SDSU and UCF) are way down on the support totem pole (Or is it top, since that signifies lower status in some tribes? Whatever.) and likely won't see a huge attendance boost as a result? It's not like there aren't other things to do in Orlando or San Diego aside from sitting in a seat for three-plus hours.

I'll give you Kansas football, since they don't seem to do a whole lot with the money they take in. Wazzu does okay just to not be Idaho. Northwestern does okay just to make bowls and not be Pioneer League caliber with their entrance requirements.
06-15-2016 09:28 PM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Off the Island or On
That's not a bad idea. Northwestern would fit in well with the Pioneer league. University of Chicago should move up to the Pioneer league too
06-15-2016 09:48 PM
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Lenvillecards Offline
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Post: #37
Off the Island or On
Relegate
Purdue
WF
Baylor
Washington St
Oregon State
Northwestern

Promote (Assuming ND & BYU are P5)
UConn
Cincinnati
Boise
Memphis
ECU
UCF
06-15-2016 10:27 PM
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Artifice Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Off the Island or On
(06-15-2016 04:39 PM)58-56 Wrote:  Relegate the criminal programs:
1. Alabama-Tuscaloosa.
2. Penn State.
3. Baylor.
4. Miami.
5. North Carolina.
6. Florida State.

Promote the 12 G5 schools that have never been sanctioned by the NCAA:
Air Force
Bowling Green
Central Michigan
Colorado State
Florida Atlantic
Kent State
North Texas
Ohio
Rice
UAB
Western Michigan

Or else admit that crime pays.

By far my favorite response.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2016 10:56 PM by Artifice.)
06-15-2016 10:56 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Off the Island or On
Here's one:

Based on "Combined Total FB+MBB Economic Business Value" as computed by the IU/PU sports economics expert. Uses his combined data from late 2015 and early 2016.

Relegate these P5 teams:

1. Wake Forest $81m
2. Rutgers $95m
3. Vanderbilt $96m
4. Boston College $115m
5. West Virginia $119m
6. Baylor $132m
7. TCU $135m
8. Mississippi State $138m

Promote these G5 teams:

1. Connecticut $207m
2. South Florida $154m
3. Central Florida $128m
4. Boise State $95m
5. San Jose $74m
6. Memphis $72m
7. San Diego State $69m
8. Cincinnati $67m
06-16-2016 08:11 AM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Off the Island or On
http://www.footballgeography.com/college...probation/

Every school in the Big 12 has been placed on probation at some point in their histories.

Missouri and Vanderbilt are the only schools in the Southeastern Conference to have never been placed on probation.

Stanford and Washington St. are the only schools in the Pac-12 conference to have never been placed on probation.

Army, Brigham Young, and Iowa are the only schools to have won a poll era national title (AP, Coaches’, and FWAA), and to have never been placed on probation. Penn St. was previously a member of this list until their recent sanctions
06-16-2016 08:20 AM
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