JRsec
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RE: Strategic Expansion Scenarios
(06-09-2016 09:54 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote: (06-08-2016 02:53 PM)JRsec Wrote: (06-08-2016 09:16 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote: So I didn't get any replies on my last thread. I'll try again. Hopefully it will lead to decent discussion.
After looking at those different categories of consideration for expansion, I started to wonder about "strategic expansion." All expansion is obviously strategic in some ways (new markets, new brands, etc) but I want to focus on strategic versus other conferences.
So: Scenario: Both GORs are over and it looks like both the Big 12 and ACC are in trouble. Which one or two schools should each conference pick that might hinder or stop other conferences plans (while also benefiting conference A - example: Big 10 may want into southern markets, but taking FIU doesn't help much)
(Subnote: No knock on FIU. After my academics analysis it surprised me to see FIU listed as a Carnegie "Highest Research" school.)
Example: If the Big 12 decided it wanted to destroy or hurt the AAC it could take two of UConn/Cincy or Houston. While the AAC could backfill, they wouldn't be seen as quite as powerful.
Here are my thoughts:
SEC vs. ACC: While taking FSU/Clemson might hurt their on field football product, the SEC would have to go to Tobacco Road or take UVA to fire a deathblow to the conference. My pick (keep reading): Duke.
SEC vs. Big 10: While many of the conference targets overlap (markets in NC, VA, FL, Texas and Oklahoma), I say that getting Duke best fits the SEC goals, and also hinders the Big 10. While the SEC may be content with Virginia Tech and NC State, taking Duke gives them one of the "big two" in NC, improves the academic standing of the league, gives immediate help in basketball, and an improving football team. Duke isn't necessarily on the Big 10's list, which means they would be an easier grab than UNC or UVA right off the bat, but they could help pull in one of the others. If nothing else, the SEC could be content with Duke on its own.
SEC vs PAC 12: Taking either Texas or OK will limit what the PAC can do. They might still go after Kansas, but that doesn't really harm the SEC.
SEC vs. Big 12: Taking OK destabilizes the league.
Big 10 vs. SEC: Talk to Vandy or Mizzou, but if they are no like they should be, then grab V Tech, the school that most people think is the best fit for the SEC.
I don't think you can think in terms of strategic moves to impinge your competition and limit it to just two. For instance to stop the Big 10 dead in its tracks on the East Coast the SEC would need to offer at least 4. Duke, U.N.C., UVa, & Va Tech. Without entry into those two states the Big 10 expansion down the Atlantic Coast is dead.
To stop their advance in the West it would take 4 as well. Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and whoever else is necessary to get it done. To me those are lock down moves on the corners.
Also if we had those what else would we need?
I guess what I had in mind was not necessarily "lock down" moves but "hindrance" moves and "protection" moves. For example, taking one of FSU/Miami doesn't stop the Big 10 from taking the other, but protects the SECs Florida claim overall. (An aside: In the past you made the case for Miami over FSU, if I remember correctly. Not sure where you stand on that now but I think I'd take Miami just for academic reasons right now).
So my rationale: taking Oklahoma alone means Texas is no longer contiguous. Probably not an issue to the Big 10 to snatch up a school like Texas, but maybe it makes them pause. In addition, by taking OK, the Big 10 may not see Kansas in the same light, since it no longer gives them the bridge to Texas it would have. Not a lock down, but definitely a hindrance.
Duke: I use Duke because they do not come up on Big 10 wish-lists alone, but only as an add on with UNC. So by taking Duke, perhaps the Big 10 has to pause again. Do they let us move again and take UNC and their scandal while themselves double down on Virginia? Do they go after UVA and UNC anyway (probable)? Does UVA consider the SEC more now that the SEC has one of their rivals in Duke? It sets us up for a good situation for further expansion, and at the same time protects us from needing to "reach" for ECU-type schools (nothing against ECU, just not there yet). Since NC State is a clear third in the state in my mind (again, nothing against NC State, as I think the SEC would certainly be content with Virginia tech/NC State, but aiming higher isn't an awful way to go.
The case I made for Miami boiled down to these points:
1. The SEC needs a simple majority of viewers in Florida, not the plurality we now have.
2. The SEC needs a presence in South Florida. While a case could be made for UCF based on demographics, clearly Miami is the recognized brand.
3. Pertinent to this discussion the taking of Miami would not implode the ACC leaving it intact as a buffer.
BTW: I totally agree about OU. Having them not only impedes access to Texas from the Big 10, but it also becomes a lure.
I don't agree about Duke, but I understand your rationale. Taking UVa & UNC stops advancement there. I posted about taking 4 because it would probably take accommodating Duke and Virginia Tech to pull it off.
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