Dennis Dodd article after the Big 12 Phoenix meetings in early May:

Analytics from Navigate Research are expected to show the Big 12 has at least a 10-15 percent better chance of reaching the CFP in any given year if it expands as opposed to staying in its 10-team configuration.

That percentage at least doubles than the “4-5 percent” improvement commissioner Bob Bowlsby spoke about in Phoenix on Monday. That smaller figure discussed by Bowlsby only included the addition of a conference championship game [without expansion], CBS Sports has learned.

*****************
Fast forward to June 3. Below are the tweets coming out of the title game press conference.

Why would Bowlsby be talking about a 14% increase in playoff chances in the press conference if he knew the Big 12 planned to remain at 10 teams? A championship game at 10 teams only results in a 4-5% improvement.

Chuck Carlton @ChuckCarltonDMN
Bowlsby says the data shows a 14 percent increase in making the College Football Playoff with a championship game.

George Schroeder @GeorgeSchroeder
“Under the best scenarios,” Bob Bowlsby says a conference championship game provides 14-% increase in chances of making the @CFBPlayoff.

Brian Davis @BDavisAAS
With a Big 12 title game, league data says it would help teams' chances of getting in CFP by "14 percent," per Bowlsby.

Ryan Aber @ryaber
Bowlsby: 14 percent added chance of making CFP w/ title game

David Ubben @davidubben
Bowlsby: Under the "best of scenarios" a Big 12 title game gave the Big 12 a 14 percent upgrade in odds of making the CFP.

It's over for a while IMO. Don't see expansion happening for a few more years

There are hints that the Big 12 2ill expand. They need to take a risk and add G5 programs like they did with TCU. TCU is doing very well in the Big 12. West Virginia was bleh at the least.

The only two schools I see that even has a realistic chance to be added at this point would be BYU and Tulane.

(06-06-2016 01:17 AM)GreenWave16 Wrote:  The only two schools I see that even has a realistic chance to be added at this point would be BYU and Tulane.

Im so proud of you. You finally made -300! I didn't think you would make it.

That is true about the percentages, but since a conference network is not going to happen, the focus changes in the expansion area. I think they would like expand for the 2018 season, but I think the issue for them in pulling from the G5 pool is there isn't a Utah or TCU school out there that has been highly ranked consistently other than Boise St. BSU is out because their academics are not there quite yet and BYU hasn't had any success in getting to a BCS or Access Bowl or being in the top 10 ranking in a very, very long time.

(06-06-2016 01:45 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-06-2016 01:17 AM)GreenWave16 Wrote:  The only two schools I see that even has a realistic chance to be added at this point would be BYU and Tulane.

Im so proud of you. You finally made -300! I didn't think you would make it.

Second time around. He made it first on 5/22/16 by Kronke. Roll Wave !!!!!

Big 12 needs to add Cincinnati, Memphis, BYU, Boise. Central Florida, and East Carolina.

I don't understand how anybody can believe, after everything that was said publicly during and after the meeting last week, that expansion is dead. Boren and Bowlsby both said publicly that expansion is alive and well.

There is no way the Big 12 is going to two 5-team divisions, and still play a round-robin. With a round robin, divisions are not only irrelevant, they raise the possibility of not having the 2 best teams in the CCG. That makes zero sense.

Just b/c the B12N is dead doesn't mean the B12 can't make big money from expansion. Just adding 2 teams adds $500M to the TV pool, which the B12 can distribute however it sees fit. Going to 14 adds $1B. Half shares for the 2 new schools at 12 gives the current B12 teams another $3M+ a year, per school. At 14, it's well over $6M.

I do think the lack of a B12N lessens the chance of 14, but you can bet the ranch they are going to 12, at least.

(06-06-2016 08:41 AM)TripleA Wrote:  I don't understand how anybody can believe, after everything that was said publicly during and after the meeting last week, that expansion is dead. Boren and Bowlsby both said publicly that expansion is alive and well.

There is no way the Big 12 is going to two 5-team divisions, and still play a round-robin. With a round robin, divisions are not only irrelevant, they raise the possibility of not having the 2 best teams in the CCG. That makes zero sense.

Just b/c the B12N is dead doesn't mean the B12 can't make big money from expansion. Just adding 2 teams adds $500M to the TV pool, which the B12 can distribute however it sees fit. Going to 14 adds $1B. Half shares for the 2 new schools at 12 gives the current B12 teams another $3M+ a year, per school. At 14, it's well over $6M.

I do think the lack of a B12N lessens the chance of 14, but you can bet the ranch they are going to 12, at least.

So ESPN is losing money everyday yet they are going to just hand over $40mm a year for teams they currently pay $4mm, then they are going to let the current B12 members keep a higher percentage of the money. That should work.

(06-06-2016 08:54 AM)wavefan12 Wrote:  

(06-06-2016 08:41 AM)TripleA Wrote:  I don't understand how anybody can believe, after everything that was said publicly during and after the meeting last week, that expansion is dead. Boren and Bowlsby both said publicly that expansion is alive and well.

There is no way the Big 12 is going to two 5-team divisions, and still play a round-robin. With a round robin, divisions are not only irrelevant, they raise the possibility of not having the 2 best teams in the CCG. That makes zero sense.

Just b/c the B12N is dead doesn't mean the B12 can't make big money from expansion. Just adding 2 teams adds $500M to the TV pool, which the B12 can distribute however it sees fit. Going to 14 adds $1B. Half shares for the 2 new schools at 12 gives the current B12 teams another $3M+ a year, per school. At 14, it's well over $6M.

I do think the lack of a B12N lessens the chance of 14, but you can bet the ranch they are going to 12, at least.

So ESPN is losing money everyday yet they are going to just hand over $40mm a year for teams they currently pay $4mm, then they are going to let the current B12 members keep a higher percentage of the money. That should work.

It's called a contract. ESPN signed it, lol. Business.

And ESPN has zero say on how the Big 12 distributes the money.

Plus, when those two teams (or perhaps 4) are playing UT, OU, BU, TCU, OSU, etc., they will likely be pulling in much bigger ratings.

Oh, and ESPN is NOT losing money. Just the opposite. They are still the economic engine of Disney. They are losing money on the LHN, which is separate from the B12 Tier 1/2 contract.

(06-06-2016 09:15 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(06-06-2016 08:54 AM)wavefan12 Wrote:  

(06-06-2016 08:41 AM)TripleA Wrote:  I don't understand how anybody can believe, after everything that was said publicly during and after the meeting last week, that expansion is dead. Boren and Bowlsby both said publicly that expansion is alive and well.

There is no way the Big 12 is going to two 5-team divisions, and still play a round-robin. With a round robin, divisions are not only irrelevant, they raise the possibility of not having the 2 best teams in the CCG. That makes zero sense.

Just b/c the B12N is dead doesn't mean the B12 can't make big money from expansion. Just adding 2 teams adds $500M to the TV pool, which the B12 can distribute however it sees fit. Going to 14 adds $1B. Half shares for the 2 new schools at 12 gives the current B12 teams another $3M+ a year, per school. At 14, it's well over $6M.

I do think the lack of a B12N lessens the chance of 14, but you can bet the ranch they are going to 12, at least.

So ESPN is losing money everyday yet they are going to just hand over $40mm a year for teams they currently pay $4mm, then they are going to let the current B12 members keep a higher percentage of the money. That should work.

It's called a contract. ESPN signed it, lol. Business.

And ESPN has zero say on how the Big 12 distributes the money.

Plus, when those two teams (or perhaps 4) are playing UT, OU, BU, TCU, OSU, etc., they will likely be pulling in much bigger ratings.

Oh, and ESPN is NOT losing money. Just the opposite. They are still the economic engine of Disney. They are losing money on the LHN, which is separate from the B12 Tier 1/2 contract.

Yep. Those pesky contracts..
Cheers!.

(06-06-2016 08:54 AM)wavefan12 Wrote:  

(06-06-2016 08:41 AM)TripleA Wrote:  I don't understand how anybody can believe, after everything that was said publicly during and after the meeting last week, that expansion is dead. Boren and Bowlsby both said publicly that expansion is alive and well.

There is no way the Big 12 is going to two 5-team divisions, and still play a round-robin. With a round robin, divisions are not only irrelevant, they raise the possibility of not having the 2 best teams in the CCG. That makes zero sense.

Just b/c the B12N is dead doesn't mean the B12 can't make big money from expansion. Just adding 2 teams adds $500M to the TV pool, which the B12 can distribute however it sees fit. Going to 14 adds $1B. Half shares for the 2 new schools at 12 gives the current B12 teams another $3M+ a year, per school. At 14, it's well over $6M.

I do think the lack of a B12N lessens the chance of 14, but you can bet the ranch they are going to 12, at least.

So ESPN is losing money everyday yet they are going to just hand over $40mm a year for teams they currently pay $4mm, then they are going to let the current B12 members keep a higher percentage of the money. That should work.

Exactly how would ESPN avoid paying it if they don't want to? The "pro rata" payout for members #12-#14 is based on a clause that is already included in the Big12 contract signed by ESPN several years ago. Both sides are stuck with the contract they signed. The only thing ESPN could do is approach the Big12 and say we will give you a slight bump if you don't add anyone--that might be cheaper for ESPN than the Big12 jumping to 14 and might be an attractive option to Big12 if they are in conflict over who to add (or even whether to expand at all).

(06-06-2016 08:41 AM)TripleA Wrote:  I don't understand how anybody can believe, after everything that was said publicly during and after the meeting last week, that expansion is dead. Boren and Bowlsby both said publicly that expansion is alive and well.

There is no way the Big 12 is going to two 5-team divisions, and still play a round-robin. With a round robin, divisions are not only irrelevant, they raise the possibility of not having the 2 best teams in the CCG. That makes zero sense.

Just b/c the B12N is dead doesn't mean the B12 can't make big money from expansion. Just adding 2 teams adds $500M to the TV pool, which the B12 can distribute however it sees fit. Going to 14 adds $1B. Half shares for the 2 new schools at 12 gives the current B12 teams another $3M+ a year, per school. At 14, it's well over $6M.

I do think the lack of a B12N lessens the chance of 14, but you can bet the ranch they are going to 12, at least.

I agree the 2 divisions is a strange way to go if the plan is to stick with 10 teams. The NCAA voted to allow the full round robin without divisions

From the Big 12 website:

i) A game between division champions of a member conference that is divided into two divisions (as equally balanced as possible), each of which conducts round-robin, regular-season competition among the members of that division; or,

ii) A game between the top two teams in the conference standings following a full round-robin regular-season schedule of competition among all members of the conference.

If the 12 team division is going to happen by 2017, they'll have to take into account the exit requirements of the conferences. The AAC has a 27 month notice and a $10 million exit fee. All other G5 conference has a year notice with various exit fees involved.

So I am to believe that ESPN agreed to a clause that allows the B12 to add whomever the hell they want and ESPN will give them $500 over the life of the deal with no say on who it is or who gets the money? All of you have reviewed the contract in its entirety? This addiiton would have no ill effects on the next contractual negotiation? I mean any AAC school would bolt for way less then $10mm per.

As for the percentages, I don;t understand how adding two teams has a dramatic effect on the % of making the CFB. Aside from BYU (maybe ECU and/or Cincy), you are probably adding a mediocre to below average caliber B12 program, how does that strengthen the conference resume? Seems like a consultant trying to justify their contract.

(06-06-2016 10:00 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  If the 12 team division is going to happen by 2017, they'll have to take into account the exit requirements of the conferences. The AAC has a 27 month notice and a $10 million exit fee. All other G5 conference has a year notice with various exit fees involved.

These exit fee contracts are not worth $hit.

(06-06-2016 09:15 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(06-06-2016 08:54 AM)wavefan12 Wrote:  

(06-06-2016 08:41 AM)TripleA Wrote:  I don't understand how anybody can believe, after everything that was said publicly during and after the meeting last week, that expansion is dead. Boren and Bowlsby both said publicly that expansion is alive and well.

There is no way the Big 12 is going to two 5-team divisions, and still play a round-robin. With a round robin, divisions are not only irrelevant, they raise the possibility of not having the 2 best teams in the CCG. That makes zero sense.

Just b/c the B12N is dead doesn't mean the B12 can't make big money from expansion. Just adding 2 teams adds $500M to the TV pool, which the B12 can distribute however it sees fit. Going to 14 adds $1B. Half shares for the 2 new schools at 12 gives the current B12 teams another $3M+ a year, per school. At 14, it's well over $6M.

I do think the lack of a B12N lessens the chance of 14, but you can bet the ranch they are going to 12, at least.

So ESPN is losing money everyday yet they are going to just hand over $40mm a year for teams they currently pay $4mm, then they are going to let the current B12 members keep a higher percentage of the money. That should work.

It's called a contract. ESPN signed it, lol. Business.

And ESPN has zero say on how the Big 12 distributes the money.

Plus, when those two teams (or perhaps 4) are playing UT, OU, BU, TCU, OSU, etc., they will likely be pulling in much bigger ratings.

Oh, and ESPN is NOT losing money. Just the opposite. They are still the economic engine of Disney. They are losing money on the LHN, which is separate from the B12 Tier 1/2 contract.

I think someone posted a link not long ago that the LHN was finally operating in the black. Lol...probably not by much, but that's better than losing money.

So let me get this right, the big 12 can add 2 or 4 school's and ESPN has to pro rate the deal so those school's are getting an equal share as the other big 12 members? is 4 the limit or can the big 12 add 6? pretty dumb contract by ESPN. Can the big 12 take a stake of the new members share as a buy in? I think 10 is a disaster format if you also have a title game, so got to think they expand by at least 2...the issue is who. Even with the money, pretty silly to think any acc, pac 12 or SEC leaves for the big 12 about as realistic as iowa joining the big 12. Pool is 2-4 from BYU, Colo State, Houston, Memphis, Cincy and UConn.

(06-06-2016 10:23 AM)bluesox Wrote:  So let me get this right, the big 12 can add 2 or 4 school's and ESPN has to pro rate the deal so those school's are getting an equal share as the other big 12 members? is 4 the limit or can the big 12 add 6? pretty dumb contract by ESPN. Can the big 12 take a stake of the new members share as a buy in? I think 10 is a disaster format if you also have a title game, so got to think they expand by at least 2...the issue is who. Even with the money, pretty silly to think any acc, pac 12 or SEC leaves for the big 12 about as realistic as iowa joining the big 12. Pool is 2-4 from BYU, Colo State, Houston, Memphis, Cincy and UConn.

So ESPN uses legal zoom for their billion dollar contracts?