As I'm frantically trying to tie things up before traveling down to Baton Rouge, this preview will be limited to a scouting report on SELA...,
Though the Southeastern Louisiana Lions lost the Southland Conference championship game to Sam Houston State, they come into the regional sporting a 39 - 19 overall record (5-4 vs. Top 25, 7-8 vs. Top 50, 18-14 vs. Top 100, #40 RPI, #42 ISR, #118 SoS). They have familiarity with playing LSU in Alex Box Stadium, as they play a mid-week game their annually, losing this year 4-11 five weeks ago. Looking at their schedule, on the plus side, they beat #29 Tulane twice, split two mid-week games with both #19 USM and #41 South Alabama, and lost 2 of 3 in a home weekend series vs. #15 ULaLa. So they have certainly faced their share of quality opponents. On the downside, and the primary reason SELA was one of the last three teams given at large bids by the Selection Committee, the Lions played a whopping 14 games against teams outside of the Top 200 (posting a 14-0 record) and another 6 games against teams ranked outside the Top 180 (winning all but one of those games). That's one-third of their regular season games and over 50% of their regular season wins. Conversely, Rice did not play a single game against a team ranked lower than #187, and only played 6 games against teams ranked below #150 in RPI (UTSA, MTSU). Consequently, one has to assume that SELA's stats are somewhat inflated (especially since most of their games against quality opposition came in mid-week games, against #4 or #5 starting pitchers). Here's their schedule and results to date...
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/sch...-Louisiana
SELA represents a VERY dangerous offensive team, as they are not only very patient, disciplined hitters, but they're super-aggressive on the basepaths...and it's an experienced, upperclass-laden lineup, featuring just one underclassman (their Freshman SS). As a team they're hitting .289/.399/.433 with 46 HRs, 116 doubles/triples, 109-153 SBs and averaging a robust 7.0 runs per game. They're led by a legitimate national Player of the Year candidate, Jameson Fisher, who has put up Anthony Rendon-type numbers (
.437/.564/.716, 11 HRs, 18 doubles/triples, 48 runs, 66 RBIs, 50 BBs, 16 HBPs, 15-23 SBs). Read those numbers again, and it becomes obvious that we simply cannot let this one guy beat us-- even if it means walking him anytime he comes up with runners in scoring position. Only two other guys are hitting above .300, but four other guys have OBPs over .400. Their cleanup hitter, Carson Crites is hitting .307/.392/.503, with 8 HRs, 14 doubles/triples, 46 runs, 34 RBIs, 13-16 stolen bases. As mentioned above, these guys-- up and down their lineup-- are extremely patient and disciplined hitters, averaging 5 BBs/game, and who have received 29 more free passes (BBs, HBPs) than times they've struck out. (By comparison, Rice has struck out 86 more times than we've received free passes.) SELA has received exactly 100 more BBs than we have, and been hit by 55 more pitches. In all likelihood, they crowd the plate to help get the results they've been getting. Making matters worse, everyone in the lineup runs and does so often. 6 different players have 10+ stolen bases...and they've hit into just 27 doubleplays (vs. 53 for the Owls). They are also a left-hand laden lineup, with up to 5 left-handed batters (including Fisher), as well as one switch hitter. For all these reasons, Blake Fox would appear to be our best bet against SELA's offense and, fortunately for us, he's fully rested. Not only is he a southpaw, but he usually does an excellent job at holding runner on 1B, and he has the most consistent control amongst our starting pitchers. And Blake has bounced back from his one poor outing in the last two months vs. LaTech with an outstanding effort against FAU in the conference tournament. He came up big for us in the regional opener last year vs. ULaLa (despite our bullpen meltdown in the 9th inning of that game), and we need him to do the same Friday night vs. SELA.
Defensively, the Lions are average at best, having posted a .963 fielding percentage and having allowed 65 unearned runs (vs. 39 for the Owls). However, that is somewhat deceiving as their Freshman SS has committed 31 errors himself, the majority occurring earlier in the year when he was adapting to the faster play at the collegiate level, No other position player has committed more than 8 errors. They have turned just 31 doubleplays (vs. 46 by the Owls defense). I very much doubt we'll risk running against their catchers, who have thrown out an exceptional 44% (31-71) of attempted basestealers.
On the mound, their pitching staff have put up elite across-the-board numbers: 2.83 ERA, .232 BAA, 1.28 WHIP+, 2.46 K:BB ratio, and averaging 7.7 strikeouts/game. They have two stud starters, an elite closer and two quality set-up/middle relievers. Their co-aces both pitched shutout ball in winning back-to-back games in the Southland tournament last Thursday and Friday. Both should be well rested to pitch against us, but I'm betting they go with their soft-tossing southpaw-- both because he's a Senior and because of our left-hand laden lineup...
D.Carlini (Sr, LHP): 15 starts, 7-2, 91.1 IP, 2.07 ERA, .214 BAA, 34 BBs, 9 WPs, 59 Ks
M.Sceroler (So, RHP): 15 starts, 10-3, 90.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, .221 BAA, 32 BBs, 9 WPs, 92 Ks
K.Granier (So, RHP): 21 app, 5-1, 7 saves, 35.1 IP, 0.76 ERA, .194 BAA, 13 BBs, 31 Ks
Josh Green (So, RHP): 16 app, 0-2, 3 saves, 32.1 IP, 2.23 ERA, .260 BAA, 7 BBs, 29 Ks
G.Von Rosenberg (Jr, RHP): 15 app, 2-0, 26.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, .260 BAA, 10 BBs, 24 Ks
Drew Avens (So, LHP): 14 app, 1-2, 3 saves, 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, .188 BAA, 8 BBs, 23 Ks
The good news is that the bullpen is largely right-handed.
Here's their individual and team stats over their first 58 games...
http://www.lionsports.net/cumestats.aspx...ear=2016&;
...and roster...
http://www.lionsports.net/cumestats.aspx...ear=2016&;
