(05-19-2016 08:59 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Per Sagarin - CUSA West and the AAC were only 5 pts apart in 2013.

Five points is fairly significant. Five point favorites win about two out of three.

(05-19-2016 10:05 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(05-19-2016 08:59 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Per Sagarin - CUSA West and the AAC were only 5 pts apart in 2013.

Five points is fairly significant. Five point favorites win about two out of three.

Is that how Sagarin works? These were the Sagarin ratings for the entirety of the conference/conference division.

edit: to clarify, I am not trying to argue that Rice was better than UH that year, just the the fact that a non-conference champ beating a conference champ, especially in conferences closely ranked means diddly-squat.

Do you see a distinction between "well exemplified by" and "solely evidenced by"?

(05-19-2016 10:20 AM)At Ease Wrote:  Do you see a distinction between "well exemplified by" and "solely evidenced by"?

I think they are, in essence, one in the same in your post. I don't think the UH result (well, not really the result, but rather the score at an arbitrary point in the game) is a good example of the quality of C-USA that year. I gave a counter arguments as to why using that logic doesn't hold up, IMO. I'll summarize: other conference champions suffered similar fates and those do not exemplify the difference in quality between those two conferences.

You can counter my argument if you would like.

Stuff happens. doesn't prove a thing.

(05-19-2016 10:13 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(05-19-2016 10:05 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(05-19-2016 08:59 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Per Sagarin - CUSA West and the AAC were only 5 pts apart in 2013.

Five points is fairly significant. Five point favorites win about two out of three.

Is that how Sagarin works? These were the Sagarin ratings for the entirety of the conference/conference division.

Sagarin uses several ways to average the strength of a division of conference. Central mean. Simple mean. And win50 simulation.

Either way, if the average American team has a power rating five points better than the average CUSA West team, then the average American school would be favored by five points on a neutral site.

As it turns out, the top 2 teams in the American that year were rated 15 points better than the top 2 CUSA West schools. It became much closer at the bottom. 15 point favorites win about 9 times out of 10.

(05-19-2016 10:52 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(05-19-2016 10:13 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(05-19-2016 10:05 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(05-19-2016 08:59 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Per Sagarin - CUSA West and the AAC were only 5 pts apart in 2013.

Five points is fairly significant. Five point favorites win about two out of three.

Is that how Sagarin works? These were the Sagarin ratings for the entirety of the conference/conference division.

Sagarin uses several ways to average the strength of a division of conference. Central mean. Simple mean. And win50 simulation.

Either way, if the average American team has a power rating five points better than the average CUSA West team, then the average American school would be favored by five points on a neutral site.

As it turns out, the top 2 teams in the American that year were rated 15 points better than the top 2 CUSA West schools. It became much closer at the bottom. 15 point favorites win about 9 times out of 10.

I'm not surprised about those top two teams - UCF and Louisville right? As I mentioned UCF beat Baylor that year, but no one says that the AAC was a better conference when the Big 12 would have been 13 pt favorites on neutral ground, based on that one result.

I am specifically nitpicking that a single result does not usually indict an entire conference's quality, and that the UH-Rice games falls into that category. Now had we changed opponents and had the same result against, say, Temple that year, then I would be more accepting of the claim.

(05-19-2016 08:25 AM)Antarius Wrote:  

(05-19-2016 08:04 AM)cr11owl Wrote:  

(05-18-2016 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(05-12-2016 04:36 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  They had 1 good year.

You mean besides the 14 Top 20 finishes in 25 years from 1966-90?

Actually, we've been pretty salty most of our existence except one horrid stretch from 1991-2002.

But if you want to talk recently . . .

88 wins over the last 10 years is 19th best nationally. Source

47 wins over the last 5 years is T15th best nationally. Source.

I assume Rice would prefer to play with SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Navy than with Conference USA. So you are rooting for Houston to move up in class, right?

Ah but you've missed it, on this board those wins don't count because they are in cream puff conferences. You need some signature wins like the one over FSU last year.

I would rather play with SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Navy but I don't see any of the Texas schools in the big 12 letting UH move up. The only thing UH provides that is different from Rice is a large enrollment and they come with many more negatives.

They beat #24 Penn State in 2011. And #5 OSU on the road in 2009.

You can try your best to dismiss it or find ways to equate it to what we do, but its very clear to everyone (except for a few here) that the world cares about UH a lot more than they do about us.

as for the second bolded point, thats what Rice keeps saying to make ourselves feel better. Rather than pooh poohing at them, the sandwich boards and everything else, it might be prudent to swallow our ego and try to learn the good from them.

To the bolded point-- they are much more relevant at this point because of what they have accomplished over the last 10 years and their relentless media campaign trying to move up to P5. I really admire them right now- it is not that easy to do what they have done...hell, I see national sportswriters calling them a playoff team this year. Other than the much better on-field performance (and I believe that is directly related) what is really different is that, from top to bottom they as a university, fan base, donors, etc. really, really care about elevating their program and they are doing everything they can to get there. It is not dissimilar to what TCU was doing 15 years ago.

I truly believe that we have much more to potentially offer a P5 conference, but there is a minimum threshold of caring that we just don't seem to meet, and apparently never will.

I hope the rumor about us to the Big 12 is true (and FTR this board/thread is the only place it's been mentioned, so there's that), but there is a much higher possibility that in 10 years UH is a competitive P5 and we are a lower middle of the pack lower division team.

It's very frustrating, because teams like Southern Miss, and ECU would love to have our advantage of location and oh how UH would love our academic reputation. I may be delusional, but I truly believe if we committed to moving up the way UH has and TCU did before them that we would have a much better shot than UH. I think in that environment our attendance would improve enough to meet a minimum acceptable level, but that's the one area that may keep us out regardless.

To an earlier Coog question about season tickets- suffice it to say it is much, much less than yours. Much higher on a % of students/alumni basis though

(05-19-2016 12:01 PM)Middle Ages Wrote:  

(05-19-2016 08:25 AM)Antarius Wrote:  

(05-19-2016 08:04 AM)cr11owl Wrote:  

(05-18-2016 10:34 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(05-12-2016 04:36 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  They had 1 good year.

You mean besides the 14 Top 20 finishes in 25 years from 1966-90?

Actually, we've been pretty salty most of our existence except one horrid stretch from 1991-2002.

But if you want to talk recently . . .

88 wins over the last 10 years is 19th best nationally. Source

47 wins over the last 5 years is T15th best nationally. Source.

I assume Rice would prefer to play with SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Navy than with Conference USA. So you are rooting for Houston to move up in class, right?

Ah but you've missed it, on this board those wins don't count because they are in cream puff conferences. You need some signature wins like the one over FSU last year.

I would rather play with SMU, Tulsa, Tulane and Navy but I don't see any of the Texas schools in the big 12 letting UH move up. The only thing UH provides that is different from Rice is a large enrollment and they come with many more negatives.

They beat #24 Penn State in 2011. And #5 OSU on the road in 2009.

You can try your best to dismiss it or find ways to equate it to what we do, but its very clear to everyone (except for a few here) that the world cares about UH a lot more than they do about us.

as for the second bolded point, thats what Rice keeps saying to make ourselves feel better. Rather than pooh poohing at them, the sandwich boards and everything else, it might be prudent to swallow our ego and try to learn the good from them.

To the bolded point-- they are much more relevant at this point because of what they have accomplished over the last 10 years and their relentless media campaign trying to move up to P5. I really admire them right now- it is not that easy to do what they have done...hell, I see national sportswriters calling them a playoff team this year. Other than the much better on-field performance (and I believe that is directly related) what is really different is that, from top to bottom they as a university, fan base, donors, etc. really, really care about elevating their program and they are doing everything they can to get there. It is not dissimilar to what TCU was doing 15 years ago.

I truly believe that we have much more to potentially offer a P5 conference, but there is a minimum threshold of caring that we just don't seem to meet, and apparently never will.

I hope the rumor about us to the Big 12 is true (and FTR this board/thread is the only place it's been mentioned, so there's that), but there is a much higher possibility that in 10 years UH is a competitive P5 and we are a lower middle of the pack lower division team.

It's very frustrating, because teams like Southern Miss, and ECU would love to have our advantage of location and oh how UH would love our academic reputation. I may be delusional, but I truly believe if we committed to moving up the way UH has and TCU did before them that we would have a much better shot than UH. I think in that environment our attendance would improve enough to meet a minimum acceptable level, but that's the one area that may keep us out regardless.

To an earlier Coog question about season tickets- suffice it to say it is much, much less than yours. Much higher on a % of students/alumni basis though

I completely agree that if we were to have done what UH has done in the past 15 years, we would also have a much better shot. UH has made their intentions known and has moved very deliberately in a direction that echos those intentions.

Unfortunately Rice's football program has not done the same over the same period of time, but I am grateful for the recent attempts to make our goals as an institution know and for us moving in that direction. We have increased alumni giving/awareness and we have updated a significant portion of our direly out-dated facilities. But we have not begun to move with all of our might (see retaining DB this year, argue about when that decision should have been made if you really want). Hopefully by the end of this season it is clear that we believe we have earned a spot in the P-5 by making tough decisions, but decisions that are smart and thought-through.