(05-10-2016 10:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (05-10-2016 09:50 AM)TerryD Wrote: (05-10-2016 09:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote: 50% chance there is even an ACCN at all in the next 3 years.
If there is, 10% chance it closes the money gap meaningfully with the SEC and B1G.
90% chance some ACC schools, particularly Clemson and FSU, still feel an acute $$$ disadvantage that will make them restless.
Bottom Line: ACCN or not, the presence of FSU and Clemson in the ACC will likely continue to depend on the good will of the SEC not inviting them.
I think that the ACC Network will happen. I don't think that it will make a ton of money like the SEC and Big Ten networks.
Agreed.
I don't think that Clemson and/or FSU will get an invitation to the SEC.
Agreed.
I don't think that Virginia and UNC will go to the Big Ten.
Agreed. They are ACC lifers.
I think that the Big 12 will implode whether they expand this summer or not.
Not sure about that. Kind of like the ACC's fate re Clemson/FSU resting on the whim of the SEC, I also think that there are several Big 12 schools -including crucially Oklahoma- that would jump to the B1G whether it expands or has a network or not, so yes, the Big 12's fate rests in the B1G's hands.
But IMO, the Big 12 is "safe" on that front for the same reason the ACC is "safe" regarding Clemson, FSU, and the SEC: With the possible exception of OK, the B1G doesn't want the Big 12 schools that want to join them.
I just wish I could "think" what the next Powerball numbers are.....
I don't disagree with all of your points but your logic is off.
Clemson and F.S.U. aren't getting an SEC invite because ESPN refuses to pay the SEC for them, which from ESPN's point of view is very logical. They both bolster the value of the total product of the ACC which ESPN owns a larger % in than it does in the SEC. And, they get that product more cheaply in the ACC. Neither of those product is truly a Big 10 kind of addition, in spite of what twitter hacks use to stir their hits, and the Big 12 will never make enough to make a move there possible. So ESPN's refusal to pay the SEC to take them freezes those two schools.
Also you are misunderstanding the FOX offer for the first half of the Big 10 rights package. They threw out a loss leader amount in hopes of attracting some key ESPN holdings. That's why they only bought half of the rights, grossly overpaid for less than 11 true tier 1 games (6 brands with national recognition and they don't all play each other), and set the time line for 6 years before renewal.
There are already rumors out that the second half of the package has contingencies for additions. If there are none they will likely get around 150 million for it tops. At 400 million the Big 10 payout increases by about 200 million over the last contract. That puts them north of 40 million. But if they get a couple of brands to bite it jumps to 50. If FOX gambles on the first half and loses then they have lost maybe the equivalent of full price for two undervalued schools for 7 years. That's not that big of a gamble. But if they get those additions then in 7 years they have a lot more leverage to steal ESPN product.
Because of this Oklahoma and Texas (the two top brand additions potentially available) become the big prizes for either a FOX held conference (Big 10) or an ESPN held conference (ACC or SEC).
Add to this the likelihood that an ACCN could rest upon ESPN's need to convert the LHN and realize that Disney/ESPN is very wealthy and despite recent cuts in the budget that if they can secure the top 75% of the largest revenue generating athletic departments with 4 or 5 additions from the Big 12, lock up over 50% of the best basketball product with the same, that adding Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas even if they have to add West Virginia and possibly another tag-a-long to either of their two conferences becomes a means by which they can bolster the ACC's value to within an acceptable differential, lock out Big 10 expansion products that could get them past 50 million, give the SEC a boost in the process, and settle the NCAA world back down for awhile, they will damn sure do it!
ESPN is going to save well over 120 million by not renewing the Big 10. If they absorb half of the Big 12 they may well end a commitment to 50% plus of the Big 12 payout now, and at least within 7 years. Turning talking head time into actual programming on ESPNNews, ESPNU, and the LHN, not to mention the third and unused SECN channel means converting dead space and annoying opinions into something to watch. The studios and production facilities are already in place so the overhead of conversion is simply a matter of local schools getting digital ready. Some in the ACC have already done this, the SEC has completely and the key schools in the Big 12 has as well.
I don't look for the Big 12 to survive. And I could totally see the SEC being used to take from the Big 12 the product that ESPN wants to keep, the same way the ACC was used to take the properties of the Big East that ESPN wanted to wall off from the Big 10 and the threat they perceived from a growing BTN (and that was before FOX bought a piece).
Preventing payouts of over 50 million eroding their property, and stagnating payouts at around the 45 million range is in the self interest of ESPN. Not having to worry about overbidding for Big 10 content the next time it comes up in 7 years is another leverage tool ESPN will seek.
How do you land Texas and kill the LHN? If they can't have their own conference they can have their own division.
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas
They can play two other Texas schools as OOC games and keep all of their friends and rivals. If they are making a final paycheck higher than what the LHN would have given them then they give it up. I figure ESPN can make that move by bumping the present SEC payout by about 8 million per school for the addition of those listed and cover the LHN which they payout 15 million for one school now and are obligated to do so until 2030.
Put the SEC's total payout in the 43 million range and stagnate the Big 10's in the same range and its a winner for the Mouse, especially if they can get the ACCN a network and allow scheduling arrangements with the SEC to bolster their value to the 37 or 38 million range. So for somewhere between the cost of 32 to 36 schools under contract in the SEC and ACC ESPN can dominate all of the major money sports with the best content by owning those two conferences.
USC, Oregon and Stanford are the only true brands left in the PAC. Add those to the 6 in the Big 10 and even if FOX gets them both what do they have?