(05-02-2016 05:12 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(05-01-2016 07:28 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(05-01-2016 05:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  Per real clear politics the IPFW poll shows Cruz 45, Trump 29 and Kasich 13.

Of course what is getting press is the NBC/WSJ which shows Trump up 15, 49-34-13.

Both look like serious outliers. A couple others in the same time frame show a closer race, Cloud shows 37 Trump, 35 Cruz and 16 Kasich and ARG shows 41 Trump, 32 Cruz and 21 Kasich.

What is interesting is how the 3 (Cloud only did Rep) show pretty similar results for the Democratic race. All show Clinton with a moderate lead, 50-46, 51-43 and 54-41. Yet the Republican results are all over the place.

I think that 538 had Ted as the narrow favorite a couple of days ago in their "polls plus" probability estimates.

Trump is now a heavy favorite (83% chance of winning in Indiana). Trump also has a 89% chance in California and a 50% chance in New Jersey. However, if Trump wins in Indiana and is projected to do well in California, I think that will give him a ton of momentum in NJ. My guess is that he will walk away with the vote in all 3 states. I don't think that 538 takes covariance into account.

I think you must have those numbers mixed up. I haven't heard anyone who didn't think Trump would win NJ easily.

(05-02-2016 05:58 PM)Dasville Wrote:  After losing to a 10yr old and confronting Trump supporters (who held their own against "the potential leader of the free world") Indiana will not go for Cruz.

What, repeating the lies they get from Trump is holding your own? Ted tore that idiot a new one.

(05-02-2016 06:50 PM)Paul M Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 05:58 PM)Dasville Wrote:  After losing to a 10yr old and confronting Trump supporters (who held their own against "the potential leader of the free world") Indiana will not go for Cruz.

What, repeating the lies they get from Trump is holding your own? Ted tore that idiot a new one.

Not true. Every lie that Ted spouted, that guy called out. That "idiot" was respectful and allowed Ted to speak freely and controle the conversation. He allowed Ted to hang himself.
In the end, the "idiot" was not convinced Cruz could hold his own against China.

Ted corrected the lies that idiot was regurgitating from Trump. The moron was far from respectful. He was extremely un. In the end the damaged brain chose to remain mentally small.

It's an alternate reality we're in when the liar has you convinced he's the truth teller. But that's what every charlatan and flim-flam man does.

(05-02-2016 07:20 PM)Paul M Wrote:  Ted corrected the lies that idiot was regurgitating from Trump. The moron was far from respectful. He was extremely un. In the end the damaged brain chose to remain mentally small.

It's an alternate reality we're in when the liar has you convinced he's the truth teller. But that's what every charlatan and flim-flam man does.

They regurgitate fake news sites and paid bloggers. And they have the masses not only believing it, but passing on the propaganda as truth.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

(05-02-2016 07:01 PM)Dasville Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 06:50 PM)Paul M Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 05:58 PM)Dasville Wrote:  After losing to a 10yr old and confronting Trump supporters (who held their own against "the potential leader of the free world") Indiana will not go for Cruz.

What, repeating the lies they get from Trump is holding your own? Ted tore that idiot a new one.

Not true. Every lie that Ted spouted, that guy called out. That "idiot" was respectful and allowed Ted to speak freely and controle the conversation. He allowed Ted to hang himself.
In the end, the "idiot" was not convinced Cruz could hold his own against China.

What planet do you live on?

(05-02-2016 06:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 05:12 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(05-01-2016 07:28 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(05-01-2016 05:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  Per real clear politics the IPFW poll shows Cruz 45, Trump 29 and Kasich 13.

Of course what is getting press is the NBC/WSJ which shows Trump up 15, 49-34-13.

Both look like serious outliers. A couple others in the same time frame show a closer race, Cloud shows 37 Trump, 35 Cruz and 16 Kasich and ARG shows 41 Trump, 32 Cruz and 21 Kasich.

What is interesting is how the 3 (Cloud only did Rep) show pretty similar results for the Democratic race. All show Clinton with a moderate lead, 50-46, 51-43 and 54-41. Yet the Republican results are all over the place.

I think that 538 had Ted as the narrow favorite a couple of days ago in their "polls plus" probability estimates.

Trump is now a heavy favorite (83% chance of winning in Indiana). Trump also has a 89% chance in California and a 50% chance in New Jersey. However, if Trump wins in Indiana and is projected to do well in California, I think that will give him a ton of momentum in NJ. My guess is that he will walk away with the vote in all 3 states. I don't think that 538 takes covariance into account.

I think you must have those numbers mixed up. I haven't heard anyone who didn't think Trump would win NJ easily.

As of current polls, Trump won't. He has a 50% chance. However, those polls don't take covariance into account. If Trump wins in Indiana and has a huge lead in California (which he does right now - 89% chance of winning), I don't think that Kasich supporters will have the same incentives to head to the polls as Trump supports.

(05-02-2016 08:17 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 07:01 PM)Dasville Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 06:50 PM)Paul M Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 05:58 PM)Dasville Wrote:  After losing to a 10yr old and confronting Trump supporters (who held their own against "the potential leader of the free world") Indiana will not go for Cruz.

What, repeating the lies they get from Trump is holding your own? Ted tore that idiot a new one.

Not true. Every lie that Ted spouted, that guy called out. That "idiot" was respectful and allowed Ted to speak freely and controle the conversation. He allowed Ted to hang himself.
In the end, the "idiot" was not convinced Cruz could hold his own against China.

What planet do you live on?

InsTed of Ted, you might want to appreciate the decorum of the Trump supporters. Total class and well informed. Why does Ted approach/confront a Trump supporter? He is the aggressor.
And loses.

Ted's gambit to pick a running mate early has failed.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/pres...helps-cruz

Quote:Ted Cruz’s selection of Carly Fiorina as his potential running mate has hardly registered with voters, according to a new poll.

Sixty percent have no opinion on Fiorina’s addition to Cruz’s ticket or think it has “no impact” in a Morning Consult survey released early Tuesday.

Twenty two percent say they are “less likely” to vote for Cruz because of the former Hewlett-Packard CEO.
Only 18 percent, meanwhile, say Fiorina makes them “more likely” to cast ballots for the Texas senator.

Pollsters also found that Fiorina is either disliked or unknown to many registered voters nationwide.

Thirty six percent have never heard of the former GOP presidential candidate or have no opinion of her.

Thirty nine percent view her unfavorably, meanwhile, versus 25 percent who see her favorably instead.

Morning Consult surveyed 3,940 registered voters between April 29 to May 2. The new poll has a 2-percent margin of error.

Cruz named Fiorina as his running mate during a rally in Indianapolis last week, the first time since 1976 a Republican has made such an announcement before their party’s convention.

Bump

Not trying to pick on Bullet, but bumping this to show how polls continue to be all over the place.

Actually the polls were mostly on target on the Republican side (outside of the IPFW poll which was useless). But not one single Democratic poll had Sanders in front of Clinton.

Cruz dropping out is going to get all the headlines but almost as big of a story is the fact that Clinton still is just meandering along in many states, and her overall vote totals are pretty weak in a bunch of states that Democrats have competed decently in the past few cycles.

I do suspect though that she will do better against Trump one on one than against Sanders.

(05-01-2016 05:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  Per real clear politics the IPFW poll shows Cruz 45, Trump 29 and Kasich 13.

Of course what is getting press is the NBC/WSJ which shows Trump up 15, 49-34-13.

Both look like serious outliers. A couple others in the same time frame show a closer race, Cloud shows 37 Trump, 35 Cruz and 16 Kasich and ARG shows 41 Trump, 32 Cruz and 21 Kasich.

What is interesting is how the 3 (Cloud only did Rep) show pretty similar results for the Democratic race. All show Clinton with a moderate lead, 50-46, 51-43 and 54-41. Yet the Republican results are all over the place.

(05-02-2016 09:38 PM)Dasville Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 08:17 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 07:01 PM)Dasville Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 06:50 PM)Paul M Wrote:  

(05-02-2016 05:58 PM)Dasville Wrote:  After losing to a 10yr old and confronting Trump supporters (who held their own against "the potential leader of the free world") Indiana will not go for Cruz.

What, repeating the lies they get from Trump is holding your own? Ted tore that idiot a new one.

Not true. Every lie that Ted spouted, that guy called out. That "idiot" was respectful and allowed Ted to speak freely and controle the conversation. He allowed Ted to hang himself.
In the end, the "idiot" was not convinced Cruz could hold his own against China.

What planet do you live on?

InsTed of Ted, you might want to appreciate the decorum of the Trump supporters. Total class and well informed. Why does Ted approach/confront a Trump supporter? He is the aggressor.
And loses.

Alright, so you are a troll or a total idiot. Whatever.

(05-03-2016 11:45 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Bump

Not trying to pick on Bullet, but bumping this to show how polls continue to be all over the place.

Actually the polls were mostly on target on the Republican side (outside of the IPFW poll which was useless). But not one single Democratic poll had Sanders in front of Clinton.

Cruz dropping out is going to get all the headlines but almost as big of a story is the fact that Clinton still is just meandering along in many states, and her overall vote totals are pretty weak in a bunch of states that Democrats have competed decently in the past few cycles.

I do suspect though that she will do better against Trump one on one than against Sanders.

(05-01-2016 05:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  Per real clear politics the IPFW poll shows Cruz 45, Trump 29 and Kasich 13.

Of course what is getting press is the NBC/WSJ which shows Trump up 15, 49-34-13.

Both look like serious outliers. A couple others in the same time frame show a closer race, Cloud shows 37 Trump, 35 Cruz and 16 Kasich and ARG shows 41 Trump, 32 Cruz and 21 Kasich.

What is interesting is how the 3 (Cloud only did Rep) show pretty similar results for the Democratic race. All show Clinton with a moderate lead, 50-46, 51-43 and 54-41. Yet the Republican results are all over the place.

Seems pretty clear the Kasich deal didn't work (except in killing off Kasich) and Donald's avoiding debates did. Trump got his tens of millions of free publicity and Cruz only got coverage with Carly and with his "partner" Kasich being an idiot (somehow Trump being an idiot is positive for him, but it doesn't work for anyone else). Prior to NY, the late deciders chose anybody but Trump. But these last few states (with no debates) had the late deciders going to Trump.

I thought Cruz was up 16 points?

I told you that was delusional.

(05-04-2016 07:36 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I thought Cruz was up 16 points?

I told you that was delusional.

I would suggest you read the original post, but being a Trump supporter, reading comprehension is probably not your strong point.

(05-04-2016 10:12 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-04-2016 07:36 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I thought Cruz was up 16 points?

I told you that was delusional.

I would suggest you read the original post, but being a Trump supporter, reading comprehension is probably not your strong point.

Rumor has it, Cruz is on the Trump Train, along with Kasich and a lot of others that were against Trump two days ago.

(05-04-2016 02:06 PM)LSU04_08 Wrote:  

(05-04-2016 10:12 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-04-2016 07:36 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I thought Cruz was up 16 points?

I told you that was delusional.

I would suggest you read the original post, but being a Trump supporter, reading comprehension is probably not your strong point.

Rumor has it, Cruz is on the Trump Train, along with Kasich and a lot of others that were against Trump two days ago.

Cruz wants to win in 2020. He's not going to do anything to tick off Trump voters now.

(05-04-2016 03:00 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-04-2016 02:06 PM)LSU04_08 Wrote:  

(05-04-2016 10:12 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-04-2016 07:36 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I thought Cruz was up 16 points?

I told you that was delusional.

I would suggest you read the original post, but being a Trump supporter, reading comprehension is probably not your strong point.

Rumor has it, Cruz is on the Trump Train, along with Kasich and a lot of others that were against Trump two days ago.

Cruz wants to win in 2020. He's not going to do anything to tick off Trump voters now.

Indeed, and what a joke! What was it, 2 days ago the man was describing Trump as the spawn of satan who would destroy this country from the inside. Today he'll try to curry favor for another run. Ted Cruz only cares about Ted Cruz. He's just like any other politician, and he would have done nothing to change the status quo. He's a member of The Duopoly. Don't forget that.

(05-04-2016 07:36 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I thought Cruz was up 16 points?

I told you that was delusional.

Skewed polls.

(05-04-2016 10:12 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-04-2016 07:36 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I thought Cruz was up 16 points?

I told you that was delusional.

I would suggest you read the original post, but being a Trump supporter, reading comprehension is probably not your strong point.

I don't always agree with HoD, but he comes across as one of the most intelligent contributors in the spin room.

(05-04-2016 03:46 PM)Niner National Wrote:  

(05-04-2016 10:12 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-04-2016 07:36 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I thought Cruz was up 16 points?

I told you that was delusional.

I would suggest you read the original post, but being a Trump supporter, reading comprehension is probably not your strong point.

I don't always agree with HoD, but he comes across as one of the most intelligent contributors in the spin room.

Not with that comment.