(04-29-2016 04:56 PM)rosewater Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 03:40 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 03:29 PM)rosewater Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 02:15 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  It wasn't just luck. It was poor special teams play and offensive play calling that was more likely to lead to interceptions (plus the unlucky fumbles).

I know a couple interceptions in the temple game were a result of two receiver within two yards of each other. This is not luck but bad preparation.

Again, nobody is saying that the turnovers were all about luck, he is just making the point that the Bearcats had the worst turnover luck in the country by very specific measures. By his numbers UC's expected turnovers were 24.3 and they actually turned it over 33 times (+8.7 more times than expected, for you math majors).

Also by his numbers UC would have been expected to force 18.6 turnovers and only forced 14 (a difference in 4.6). Essentially UC was really unlucky with turnovers on both sides of the football last year.

I know that your not a Tubberville apologist, and I get the point that the team was not "lucky." I think turnovers have more to do with the physical and mental nature of your team. Smart confident conditioned offenses do not make careless turnovers, and physical ball hawking defenses force the other team to make turnovers.

On another note, I cannot believe the number of people that we have back with significant playing time. Wide receiver is the only group that takes a significant step backwards. We are very deep along the defensive line and defensive backfield. I think Eric Wilson is a legitimate playmaker at linebacker and Minor sees quite a bit of time at the Mike. The key ingredients are Gunnar and coaching. Gunnar stays injury free and TT shows some interest, I am beginning that this can be a special season.

I know we have a lot of guys with experience, I just don't see many difference makers outside of Gunner (when he's on) and Boone (when he gets the ball). I'm just not real impressed with anyone along the DL and the LBs as a group leave a lot to be desired. I did think the secondary looked much more aggressive in the spring game so I have less concerns there. We need young guys to take BIG leaps this year for us to compete for an AAC title as well as stay relatively injury free (which never happens for us).

(04-29-2016 05:25 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 02:10 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Good point early on turnover luck. I realized UC was unlucky on turnovers, didn't realize just how unlucky.

He also makes the point that over a 4 game stretch UC actually played top 25 caliber football (that included the road loss to Houston which was an incredibly rare kind of loss as UC outgained Houston 8.5 to 4.9, on a per-play basis).

Good lord the end of the season was an abomination though.

Quote:You can see whatever you want to see with UC this year, and that's before we get to talking about an amazing schedule. Cincy has a 92 percent chance of beating UT-Martin in the opener and has an 82 percent chance of beating Miami (Ohio). The other 10 games are all between 38 and 61 percent.

Ten tossups! For a Tommy Tuberville team! That is an invitation to insanity. If the potential weaknesses are a little less weak than we think, then the Bearcats could legitimately go 10-2 or 11-1 this year. But if the passing game never takes and the front seven is still too leaky, 3-9 is on the table.

This might be the biggest wildcard team that a wildcard extraordinaire has ever had. I have no idea what is going to happen, and I cannot wait to find out.

Bill's the best. Pretty great breakdown and can't really disagree with anything.

UC was 3rd to last in TO margin in D1 football. I think we were -18, and as an example Houston was +20, +1 in the Country. The primary reason Houston was in the Peach Bowl was TO margin. The only game they lost Ward was on the bench hurt.

Houston's defensive scheme is the reason for that.

(04-29-2016 05:28 PM)Racinejake Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 04:56 PM)rosewater Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 03:40 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 03:29 PM)rosewater Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 02:15 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  It wasn't just luck. It was poor special teams play and offensive play calling that was more likely to lead to interceptions (plus the unlucky fumbles).

I know a couple interceptions in the temple game were a result of two receiver within two yards of each other. This is not luck but bad preparation.

Again, nobody is saying that the turnovers were all about luck, he is just making the point that the Bearcats had the worst turnover luck in the country by very specific measures. By his numbers UC's expected turnovers were 24.3 and they actually turned it over 33 times (+8.7 more times than expected, for you math majors).

Also by his numbers UC would have been expected to force 18.6 turnovers and only forced 14 (a difference in 4.6). Essentially UC was really unlucky with turnovers on both sides of the football last year.

I know that your not a Tubberville apologist, and I get the point that the team was not "lucky." I think turnovers have more to do with the physical and mental nature of your team. Smart confident conditioned offenses do not make careless turnovers, and physical ball hawking defenses force the other team to make turnovers.

On another note, I cannot believe the number of people that we have back with significant playing time. Wide receiver is the only group that takes a significant step backwards. We are very deep along the defensive line and defensive backfield. I think Eric Wilson is a legitimate playmaker at linebacker and Minor sees quite a bit of time at the Mike. The key ingredients are Gunnar and coaching. Gunnar stays injury free and TT shows some interest, I am beginning that this can be a special season.

I know we have a lot of guys with experience, I just don't see many difference makers outside of Gunner (when he's on) and Boone (when he gets the ball). I'm just not real impressed with anyone along the DL and the LBs as a group leave a lot to be desired. I did think the secondary looked much more aggressive in the spring game so I have less concerns there. We need young guys to take BIG leaps this year for us to compete for an AAC title as well as stay relatively injury free (which never happens for us).

Guys that have made plays in the past and can elevate to difference makers in my opinion. On offense, I see Gunnar, Boone, Tshumbi, and Dowdy. Cole does not make the list, because he is not a threat to go the distance. Lewis and others have not shown me anything. Our offensive line will not dominate others.

On defense, Pace, and Broughton will get pressure on the qb. Wilson and Minor can tackle in space and our safeties will be adequate. Mike Tyson is physical enough to get sacks from his hybrid position. I would like us to find a way to create more turnovers.

Tion Green 151 (ATT) 729 (YD) 8 (TD) 4.8 (AVG)
Hosey Williams 138 777 4 5.6
Mike Boone 104 749 9 7.2

Mike Boone got almost 50 less rushing attempts than Tion but made the most production-wise. The only hope I have this season is Boone becomes the featured back runnin' the rock. He's too explosive and athletic to be anything but. A man can dream can't he?

(04-29-2016 07:07 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Tion Green 151 (ATT) 729 (YD) 8 (TD) 4.8 (AVG)
Hosey Williams 138 777 4 5.6
Mike Boone 104 749 9 7.2

Mike Boone got almost 50 less rushing attempts than Tion but made the most production-wise. The only hope I have this season is Boone becomes the featured back runnin' the rock. He's too explosive and athletic to be anything but. A man can dream can't he?

I will go nuts if boone is held back by the staff this year. I do not think this will be the case since boone was wearing the qb yellow jersey(no contact) in the spring game. Taylor recognizes the talent.

(04-29-2016 05:29 PM)Racinejake Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 05:25 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 02:10 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Good point early on turnover luck. I realized UC was unlucky on turnovers, didn't realize just how unlucky.

He also makes the point that over a 4 game stretch UC actually played top 25 caliber football (that included the road loss to Houston which was an incredibly rare kind of loss as UC outgained Houston 8.5 to 4.9, on a per-play basis).

Good lord the end of the season was an abomination though.

Quote:You can see whatever you want to see with UC this year, and that's before we get to talking about an amazing schedule. Cincy has a 92 percent chance of beating UT-Martin in the opener and has an 82 percent chance of beating Miami (Ohio). The other 10 games are all between 38 and 61 percent.

Ten tossups! For a Tommy Tuberville team! That is an invitation to insanity. If the potential weaknesses are a little less weak than we think, then the Bearcats could legitimately go 10-2 or 11-1 this year. But if the passing game never takes and the front seven is still too leaky, 3-9 is on the table.

This might be the biggest wildcard team that a wildcard extraordinaire has ever had. I have no idea what is going to happen, and I cannot wait to find out.

Bill's the best. Pretty great breakdown and can't really disagree with anything.

UC was 3rd to last in TO margin in D1 football. I think we were -18, and as an example Houston was +20, +1 in the Country. The primary reason Houston was in the Peach Bowl was TO margin. The only game they lost Ward was on the bench hurt.

Houston's defensive scheme is the reason for that.

They can run the same scheme next season, they will not be +20. If they play Ward the same way he will miss 4 games. The odds are what they are.

You all know what the functional definition of "Insanity" is...

I am not going to drive myself crazy. We all have seen the trajectory of this program, to expect different results is nuts.

I will be pleased with 7-5. 6-6 is just as likely. The bowl will be another great trip with a drubbing. And Coach Tuberville will be allowed to coach as long as he wants.

It is what it is.

(04-29-2016 05:15 PM)doss2 Wrote:  Normally I avoid scheduling a vacation that conflicts with a possible bowl game. I have scheduled a Suite on Azamara leaving 12/27.

Last year I also made sure to be in Cincy at AAC Champ Game. Not this year as we will leave for Sarasota Condo the day after Thanksgiving.

One more year of the bad FB results and this Soccer BS and my Club Seats are history.

I just had a fabulous week with my bride on Seven Mile Beach on Grand Cayman on the annual funds I would normally have devoted to tickets, travel to an away game or two, and the bowl game. Until shown otherwise, schedule away.

Quote:I just had a fabulous week with my bride on Seven Mile Beach on Grand Cayman on the annual funds I would normally have devoted to tickets, travel to an away game or two, and the bowl game. Until shown otherwise, schedule away.

Did you go to Hell?

(04-29-2016 09:49 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  You all know what the functional definition of "Insanity" is...

I am not going to drive myself crazy. We all have seen the trajectory of this program, to expect different results is nuts.

I will be pleased with 7-5. 6-6 is just as likely. The bowl will be another great trip with a drubbing. And Coach Tuberville will be allowed to coach as long as he wants.

It is what it is.

Jerry, I am going to agree that I have no confidence in this team to win more than 7 games this year. I just do not see any more then that. O line losing both starting tackles, WRs losing everyone, and a D that returns a ton but was a sieve. I hate it, but I am now firmly in the prove me wrong CTT, or you get run out of town on a rail.

(04-29-2016 11:38 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 05:15 PM)doss2 Wrote:  Normally I avoid scheduling a vacation that conflicts with a possible bowl game. I have scheduled a Suite on Azamara leaving 12/27.

Last year I also made sure to be in Cincy at AAC Champ Game. Not this year as we will leave for Sarasota Condo the day after Thanksgiving.

One more year of the bad FB results and this Soccer BS and my Club Seats are history.

I just had a fabulous week with my bride on Seven Mile Beach on Grand Cayman on the annual funds I would normally have devoted to tickets, travel to an away game or two, and the bowl game. Until shown otherwise, schedule away.

Wise choice my friend. I'm sure the Missus is much happier. The opportunity cost of your discretionary income choice is much better served right now.

The prediction is 7-5 and # 6 in the AAC.

Last year UC was tied for 6&7 at 4-4. No. 5 was 5-3

A reasonable 2016 #6 out of 12 is 4-4, so to get to 7-5 he must assume 3-1 OOC. That would likely mean beating UTM, MUO, and PU (away) and losing to BYU @ home.

Where are the 4 losses?

UH at UC
USF at UC
At Temple
At Tulsa

Wins:
At UConn
ECU at UC
At UCF
Memphis at UC

When UC starts expecting to lose to Temple and Tulsa, it is time for change.

(04-30-2016 07:57 AM)doss2 Wrote:  The prediction is 7-5 and # 6 in the AAC.

Last year UC was tied for 6&7 at 4-4. No. 5 was 5-3

A reasonable 2016 #6 out of 12 is 4-4, so to get to 7-5 he must assume 3-1 OOC. That would likely mean beating UTM, MUO, and PU (away) and losing to BYU @ home.

Where are the 4 losses?

UH at UC
USF at UC
At Temple
At Tulsa

Wins:
At UConn
ECU at UC
At UCF
Memphis at UC

When UC starts expecting to lose to Temple and Tulsa, it is time for change.

That's the thing about Tuberville teams (and what Bill C points out in the article). His teams are so unpredictable that we will probably beat BYU or Houston but lose a WTF game to UConn or Tulsa.

He's all but guaranteed to uber tank a game on the road.

UC has too often in the last 3 years been the least prepared, least disciplined, and least motivated road team I have ever paid to watch. Mind blowing how out of touch they look on the road at times.

(04-30-2016 08:34 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  He's all but guaranteed to uber tank a game on the road.

UC has too often in the last 3 years been the least prepared, least disciplined, and least motivated road team I have ever paid to watch. Mind blowing how out of touch they look on the road at times.

I still have nightmares of the USF game.

I know USF was actually good last year, but that game, we made them look like the 1984 49ers.

(04-29-2016 11:50 PM)ctipton Wrote:  

Quote:I just had a fabulous week with my bride on Seven Mile Beach on Grand Cayman on the annual funds I would normally have devoted to tickets, travel to an away game or two, and the bowl game. Until shown otherwise, schedule away.

Did you go to Hell?

Ctip, been there!

(04-30-2016 08:29 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(04-30-2016 07:57 AM)doss2 Wrote:  The prediction is 7-5 and # 6 in the AAC.

Last year UC was tied for 6&7 at 4-4. No. 5 was 5-3

A reasonable 2016 #6 out of 12 is 4-4, so to get to 7-5 he must assume 3-1 OOC. That would likely mean beating UTM, MUO, and PU (away) and losing to BYU @ home.

Where are the 4 losses?

UH at UC
USF at UC
At Temple
At Tulsa

Wins:
At UConn
ECU at UC
At UCF
Memphis at UC

When UC starts expecting to lose to Temple and Tulsa, it is time for change.

That's the thing about Tuberville teams (and what Bill C points out in the article). His teams are so unpredictable that we will probably beat BYU or Houston but lose a WTF game to UConn or Tulsa.

There was an article, right after Tuberville came to UC, from a sportswriter (near Auburn) in Alabama who said, basically, it was impossible to predict where a Tuberville team would end up because when he had teams that looked like "sure win" caliber, they would inexplicably blow games and when they looked to be in "rebuilding" years, they suddenly would look great. I remember the sportswriter saying that this is what drove Auburn fans up the tree and that he thought Tuberville was a good coach for UC, but also warning us that there would be no way to safely gauge the future.

I have often thought of that article... (It was on this board somewhere...)

(04-30-2016 09:10 AM)QSECOFR Wrote:  

(04-29-2016 11:50 PM)ctipton Wrote:  

Quote:I just had a fabulous week with my bride on Seven Mile Beach on Grand Cayman on the annual funds I would normally have devoted to tickets, travel to an away game or two, and the bowl game. Until shown otherwise, schedule away.

Did you go to Hell?

Ctip, been there!

Took a drive over there.