RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
Trump and Clinton wrap up their nominations before their conventions
1) 80% of non-Trump GOPers coalesce around Trump, the remainder defect to Hillary
2) 80% of Bernie's supporters coalesce around HRC, the remainder don't vote.
Trump's convention in Cleveland is protest free inside the hall. Massive protests outside the venue. Trump adding Jeff Sessions to the ticket doesn't help things
Trump catches up to HRC in the polls in the week after a surprisingly good convention.
Clinton names Julian Castro to her ticket and has a largely trouble free convention. Clinton moves back into a double digit poll lead after the Dem convention.
First Debate, Trump does better than expected, gains 2 points
Second Debate, Hillary does better, gains it back
Third Debate, Hillary takes a page out of Trumps book (not letting the other person speak) as a draw makes her President.
Clinton wins NC, FL, NH, OH, WI, IA, MN, CO, AZ, NV, VA. Trump doesn't surprise positively anywhere (although he does run stronger in the Mid Atlantic than a generic Republican, but still doesn't come close to winning any of those states).
Dems take NC, PA, NH, FL, CO, IL, and WI to take control of the US senate. Dems take the NC Governors race. Dems gain 15 House seats, but the GOP retains control.
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