Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Clinton and Trump - what's next
Author Message
Fort Bend Owl Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 28,343
Joined: Jun 2005
Reputation: 448
I Root For: An easy win
Location:

The Parliament Awards
Post: #1
Clinton and Trump - what's next
According to CNN, Trump currently has 988 delegates (he needs 1237 to clinch the nomination). Clinton has 2168 counting her super delegates (she needs 2383). Here are the remaining states left to vote.

May 3 - Indiana
May 10 - Nebraska, West Virginia
May 17 - Oregon
May 24 - Washington
June 7 - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota

Trump can only clinch technically on June 7. There is no way he can get to 1237 before then (and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Cruz wins the next three states although I think Trump has a chance in Indiana and maybe in West Virginia too). The most likely scenario to me is he gets real close to 1237 by June 7 and finishes somewhere in the upper 1100's? Cruz won't get out of the race. Kasich probably only campaigns in two states the rest of the way (Oregon and New Mexico) but I wonder if he even does that with any real urgency.

Clinton might clinch before June 7 but Sanders has some good states before then that he could win or come close to winning. But he had an interesting statement last night which indicated a bit that he's giving up. While he said he will campaign until the end and he's not dropping out, he also indicated he might stop criticizing Clinton and instead work behind the scenes to make sure some of his campaign issues are incorporated into the Democratic Convention.

Indiana probably is Cruz's final stand if he loses that state. He'll probably say he's in to the convention if Trump doesn't get to 1237 but his inability to get past 20-25 pct in non-Evangelical states will cost him any chance to be a factor in Cleveland even if it's a contested convention. Even in the more religious states, he only gets into the 40-45 pct range. He has just one state this year where he got more than 50 pct of the vote (Utah). Compare that to Trump, who is at 6 and counting.
04-27-2016 07:16 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Smaug Offline
Happnin' Dude
*

Posts: 61,211
Joined: Mar 2005
Reputation: 842
I Root For: Dragons
Location: The Lonely Mountain

BlazerTalk AwardBlazerTalk AwardBlazerTalk AwardBlazerTalk Award
Post: #2
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
America loses.
04-27-2016 07:17 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
EverRespect Offline
Free Kaplony
*

Posts: 31,322
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 1156
I Root For: ODU
Location:
Post: #3
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
I feel the pain of the libertarians that never have anyone to vote for. Looks like I'm in that boat this year.
04-27-2016 07:35 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Motown Bronco Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 17,758
Joined: Jul 2002
Reputation: 211
I Root For: WMU
Location: Metro Detroit
Post: #4
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
#feelthejohnson
04-27-2016 07:52 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
EverRespect Offline
Free Kaplony
*

Posts: 31,322
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 1156
I Root For: ODU
Location:
Post: #5
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
(04-27-2016 07:52 AM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  #feelthejohnson

I hope he isn't the best candidate on the ballot, but it is looking possible as of now. Can't think of anyone else that could get in that would have an impact that is any better than Clinton/Trump. The one that could have an impact, Bloomberg, might be even worse.
04-27-2016 07:57 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


BeliefBlazer Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 13,806
Joined: Jun 2004
Reputation: 295
I Root For: UAB
Location: Portal, GA

DonatorsDonators
Post: #6
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
Indiana - Trump +6.3
Nebraska - No recent polls. I say Cruz.
West Virginia - No recent polls. Trump up 20 in February.
Oregon & Washington - No recent polls. Kasich territory? Perhaps Cruz.
California - Trump +17.4
Montana - No recent polls. I say Cruz.
New Jersey - Trump +28 in most recent.
New Mexico - Likely Cruz.
South Dakota - Likely Cruz.

If the polls hold, Trump will win on 1st ballot at the convention.
04-27-2016 08:08 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Niner National Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 11,600
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 494
I Root For: Charlotte 49ers
Location:
Post: #7
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
(04-27-2016 08:08 AM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  Indiana - Trump +6.3
Nebraska - No recent polls. I say Cruz.
West Virginia - No recent polls. Trump up 20 in February.
Oregon & Washington - No recent polls. Kasich territory? Perhaps Cruz.
California - Trump +17.4
Montana - No recent polls. I say Cruz.
New Jersey - Trump +28 in most recent.
New Mexico - Likely Cruz.
South Dakota - Likely Cruz.

If the polls hold, Trump will win on 1st ballot at the convention.
I don't see Cruz being appealing in Oregon and Washington.

Trump will dominate WV. I have an enormous family (18 aunts and uncles, 90+ cousins) and virtually all of them live in WV. All of them that I've talked to / am friends with on Facebook are big time Trump supporters.

I read a few weeks ago that Cruz and Kasich weren't even going to waste their time campaigning there because they know they have no chance. Trump has dominated among people without college degrees and WV has the lowest education levels in the country, so it is the perfect state for him.
04-27-2016 09:08 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
HeartOfDixie Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 24,689
Joined: Oct 2013
Reputation: 945
I Root For: Alabama
Location: Huntsville AL
Post: #8
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
Trump is going to take it.

America finally has a populist choice!
04-27-2016 09:18 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
firmbizzle Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 20,447
Joined: Jul 2008
Reputation: 442
I Root For: UF, UCF
Location:
Post: #9
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
(04-27-2016 09:18 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Trump is going to take it.

America finally has a populist choice!

Gonna be terrific! We're going to be so tired of winning!04-cheers
04-27-2016 09:33 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Redwingtom Offline
Progressive filth
*

Posts: 51,506
Joined: Dec 2003
Reputation: 968
I Root For: B-G-S-U !!!!
Location: Soros' Basement
Post: #10
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
(04-27-2016 09:18 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Trump is going to take it.

America finally has a populist choice!

[Image: 200.gif]
04-27-2016 09:38 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Tom in Lazybrook Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 22,299
Joined: Jul 2011
Reputation: 446
I Root For: So Alabama, GWU
Location: Houston
Post: #11
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
Trump and Clinton wrap up their nominations before their conventions

1) 80% of non-Trump GOPers coalesce around Trump, the remainder defect to Hillary
2) 80% of Bernie's supporters coalesce around HRC, the remainder don't vote.

Trump's convention in Cleveland is protest free inside the hall. Massive protests outside the venue. Trump adding Jeff Sessions to the ticket doesn't help things

Trump catches up to HRC in the polls in the week after a surprisingly good convention.

Clinton names Julian Castro to her ticket and has a largely trouble free convention. Clinton moves back into a double digit poll lead after the Dem convention.

First Debate, Trump does better than expected, gains 2 points
Second Debate, Hillary does better, gains it back
Third Debate, Hillary takes a page out of Trumps book (not letting the other person speak) as a draw makes her President.

Clinton wins NC, FL, NH, OH, WI, IA, MN, CO, AZ, NV, VA. Trump doesn't surprise positively anywhere (although he does run stronger in the Mid Atlantic than a generic Republican, but still doesn't come close to winning any of those states).

Dems take NC, PA, NH, FL, CO, IL, and WI to take control of the US senate. Dems take the NC Governors race. Dems gain 15 House seats, but the GOP retains control.
(This post was last modified: 04-27-2016 10:35 AM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
04-27-2016 10:34 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
All Dukes_All Day Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,326
Joined: Apr 2013
Reputation: 62
I Root For: JMU, Pitt
Location:
Post: #12
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
(04-27-2016 10:34 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Trump and Clinton wrap up their nominations before their conventions

1) 80% of non-Trump GOPers coalesce around Trump, the remainder defect to Hillary
2) 80% of Bernie's supporters coalesce around HRC, the remainder don't vote.

Trump's convention in Cleveland is protest free inside the hall. Massive protests outside the venue. Trump adding Jeff Sessions to the ticket doesn't help things

Trump catches up to HRC in the polls in the week after a surprisingly good convention.

Clinton names Julian Castro to her ticket and has a largely trouble free convention. Clinton moves back into a double digit poll lead after the Dem convention.

First Debate, Trump does better than expected, gains 2 points
Second Debate, Hillary does better, gains it back
Third Debate, Hillary takes a page out of Trumps book (not letting the other person speak) as a draw makes her President.

Clinton wins NC, FL, NH, OH, WI, IA, MN, CO, AZ, NV, VA. Trump doesn't surprise positively anywhere (although he does run stronger in the Mid Atlantic than a generic Republican, but still doesn't come close to winning any of those states).

Dems take NC, PA, NH, FL, CO, IL, and WI to take control of the US senate. Dems take the NC Governors race. Dems gain 15 House seats, but the GOP retains control.

I think you're underestimating how much many Sanders supporters (especially the millennial and younger crowd) loathe Hillary. I think you'll likely see the no-show among Sanders closer to 40% with another 10 going to Trump or an Indy.

Predictions at this point seem pointless considering we're still almost 7 months away though.
04-27-2016 10:44 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Bull_In_Exile Offline
Eternal Pessimist
*

Posts: 21,809
Joined: Jun 2009
Reputation: 461
I Root For: The Underdog
Location:
Post: #13
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
(04-27-2016 10:34 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Trump and Clinton wrap up their nominations before their conventions

1) 80% of non-Trump GOPers coalesce around Trump, the remainder defect to Hillary
2) 80% of Bernie's supporters coalesce around HRC, the remainder don't vote.

You think the GOPers who don't vote for trump go to Hillary?

[Image: Mfw+i+don+t+know+who+this+person+is+_a38...3d49df.jpg]

The big winner would maybe be Gary Johnson because everything wrong with Trump (in the minds of republicans) is 2x worse with Hill-Dog
04-27-2016 10:50 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Smaug Offline
Happnin' Dude
*

Posts: 61,211
Joined: Mar 2005
Reputation: 842
I Root For: Dragons
Location: The Lonely Mountain

BlazerTalk AwardBlazerTalk AwardBlazerTalk AwardBlazerTalk Award
Post: #14
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
(04-27-2016 09:18 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Trump is going to take it.

America finally has a populist choice!

The Manhattan billionaire.
04-27-2016 12:26 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Crebman Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,407
Joined: Apr 2007
Reputation: 552
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #15
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
(04-27-2016 09:33 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  
(04-27-2016 09:18 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  Trump is going to take it.

America finally has a populist choice!

Gonna be terrific! We're going to be so tired of winning!04-cheers

Who gets tired of winning?
04-27-2016 12:28 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
geosnooker2000 Offline
I got Cleopatra in the basement
*

Posts: 25,267
Joined: Aug 2006
Reputation: 1358
I Root For: Brandon
Location: Somerville, TN
Post: #16
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
"I guess you just put your d!ck in and explode."

(Eddie Murphy old-school, for those of you that might have taken it the wrong way)
(This post was last modified: 04-27-2016 02:12 PM by geosnooker2000.)
04-27-2016 02:11 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Motown Bronco Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 17,758
Joined: Jul 2002
Reputation: 211
I Root For: WMU
Location: Metro Detroit
Post: #17
RE: Clinton and Trump - what's next
(04-27-2016 10:34 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Trump and Clinton wrap up their nominations before their conventions

1) 80% of non-Trump GOPers coalesce around Trump, the remainder defect to Hillary
2) 80% of Bernie's supporters coalesce around HRC, the remainder don't vote.

I'm thinking more like...

1) 90% of non-Trump GOPers coalesce around Trump, 8% defect to Hillary, 2% to Johnson.
2) 90% of Bernie's supporters coalesce around HRC (despite their sore-loser anger toward her now), the remainder don't leave their futons. Maybe a small percentage do get scattered to Trump and Johnson and Stein.
04-27-2016 02:21 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.