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The brilliance of Delany
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CougarRed Offline
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The brilliance of Delany
Quick - name one of the biggest reasons for 2010-12 flurry of realignment?

Answer: the BCS contract expired in 2013, and the college football postseason was up for grabs including a potential playoff. Everything was going to change. Conferences made moves to strengthen themselves in preparation for those negotiations.

Biggest winners: Big 10, SEC. In addition to contract bowl status, they were able to snag a spot in the Orange Bowl for the 2nd (or 3rd) place teams.

Biggest losers: Big East, ACC. The ACC lost because it "only" receives $27.5M for participating in the Orange Bowl while the other Power 5 leages get $40M for participating in their contract bowls.

Fast forward. The current playoff deal expires in 2024. The future of the college football postseason will be up for grabs again. Will the playoff expand? Will the revenue distribution change? In addition, P5 commissioners continue to threaten to pull out of the NCAA and form their own body, taking the NCAA basketball tournament with them. So potentially it's more than just football's future on the table.

Who is now in the best position to make moves in preparation for the 2023 college postseason negotiations? The Big 10.

Their 6-year Fox deal allows them to go back to market before everyone else. It allows them to cherry pick schools with valuable media rights from the other leagues with very little time left on the GORs. But this is not solely about TV. This was a tactical move calculated to give the Big 10 maximum options going into talks about how college football will look in 2025+.
04-23-2016 11:25 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
Delany isn't that likeable but he's delivered for the B1G.

With the most revenue per school will the B1G have to expand though in 2025? I think the pressure is going to be more on the PAC and ACC to try and keep up with the B1G and SEC.

I like a PAC expansion move. Oklahoma and Kansas can help them athletically and are "T-Shirt" athletic schools that will drive conference network numbers. They can do it without loading into Texas which is not want the Arizona schools want.

ACC might want to try and get the SEC champ in the Orange Bowl as it tries to load up on prestige as the 4th power conference behind the PAC, SEC, B1G.

B12 is going to get squeezed I'm afraid. Texas may play them off with the ACC so they can keep their TV rights to themselves. TV revenue will be flat for this conference, the sick man of the P5.
04-23-2016 11:37 AM
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johnbragg Online
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
(04-23-2016 11:37 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Delany isn't that likeable but he's delivered for the B1G.

With the most revenue per school will the B1G have to expand though in 2025? I think the pressure is going to be more on the PAC and ACC to try and keep up with the B1G and SEC.

It ain't about *have to* expand. It's about *can* you expand in a way that adds value. PAC adding UNLV or Hawaii or Boise State or New Mexico doesn't do diddly to close the gap with the B1G and SEC. EVen adding Oklahoma doesn't do much. The only PAC move that closes the gap is the Texahoma PAC-16.

And now the Big Ten is in position to bring Texas and either Oklahoma or Kansas into the fold towards the end of the Big 12 GOR.

EDIT: Or UNC. Or UVA.

Quote:I like a PAC expansion move. Oklahoma and Kansas can help them athletically and are "T-Shirt" athletic schools that will drive conference network numbers. They can do it without loading into Texas which is not want the Arizona schools want.

If Oklahoma and/or Kansas are jailbreaking or waiting out the GOR, it's to join the Big Ten, not the PAC.

Quote:B12 is going to get squeezed I'm afraid. Texas may play them off with the ACC so they can keep their TV rights to themselves. TV revenue will be flat for this conference, the sick man of the P5.

The salient feature of the landscape is not that the Big 12 is noticeably weaker than the ACC. It's the gulf between the Big Ten & SEC and everybody else.
(This post was last modified: 04-23-2016 11:49 AM by johnbragg.)
04-23-2016 11:48 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
I think Kansas and Oklahoma will move to the Big 10. Oklahoma is tired of Texas's BS. The only way for them to move is to allow the Big 12 stay as a P5 conference once Texas leaves which means the Big 12 will Cherry Pick the best schools from the MWC and AAC respectably.
04-23-2016 11:51 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
(04-23-2016 11:48 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(04-23-2016 11:37 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Delany isn't that likeable but he's delivered for the B1G.

With the most revenue per school will the B1G have to expand though in 2025? I think the pressure is going to be more on the PAC and ACC to try and keep up with the B1G and SEC.

It ain't about *have to* expand. It's about *can* you expand in a way that adds value. PAC adding UNLV or Hawaii or Boise State or New Mexico doesn't do diddly to close the gap with the B1G and SEC. EVen adding Oklahoma doesn't do much. The only PAC move that closes the gap is the Texahoma PAC-16.

And now the Big Ten is in position to bring Texas and either Oklahoma or Kansas into the fold towards the end of the Big 12 GOR.

EDIT: Or UNC. Or UVA.

Quote:I like a PAC expansion move. Oklahoma and Kansas can help them athletically and are "T-Shirt" athletic schools that will drive conference network numbers. They can do it without loading into Texas which is not want the Arizona schools want.

If Oklahoma and/or Kansas are jailbreaking or waiting out the GOR, it's to join the Big Ten, not the PAC.

Quote:B12 is going to get squeezed I'm afraid. Texas may play them off with the ACC so they can keep their TV rights to themselves. TV revenue will be flat for this conference, the sick man of the P5.

The salient feature of the landscape is not that the Big 12 is noticeably weaker than the ACC. It's the gulf between the Big Ten & SEC and everybody else.

1) Expansion is driven almost exclusively by envy. The SEC signed a big contract with ESPN right before realignment. Nick Saban was interviewed as realignment was starting up and said the main reason they are expanding is because other conferences want what we have.

The SEC set the bar and the B1G, PAC, ACC all expanded to try and match it. Now the B1G has put the bar as if not higher than the SEC and the PAC/ACC especially have pressure to meet and perhaps can meet it.

2) Oklahoma would take a PAC offer. Utah and Colorado were able to get into the PAC over the jockeying that resulted in the failed Texas expansion but once in they shut the door on Texas. Oklahoma/Kansas is one way to expand without Texas in a way that brings value. The B1G is more focused on plucking ACC schools with bigger TV markets but again they don't have to expand as the market leader.

3) There are really 3 situations: B1G/SEC situation where they're at the top food chain. The PAC/ACC situation where they want to catch the B1G/SEC. Then there is the B12 where its about preservation because they are unable to increase value.

If the PAC could get Oklahoma/Kansas and the ACC a ND type deal with Texas its make it more of a 4 conference race with the B12 reduced to tweener status.

PAC (Oklahoma, Kansas)
ACC (Texas non-FB)
B12 (BYU, Colorado St, Houston, Cincinnati, UConn)
AAC (Army)
MWC (UTEP)

Resolved a bunch of issues:

1) PAC network getting off the ground.
2) A better long term home for Texas.
3) BYU finds a P5 home.
4) Army finds a conference.
5) UTEP moves west.

Its not to say the B1G wouldn't feel compelled to expand again but with the PAC/ACC putting more distance on the B12 and getting more TV $$$ as a result the attraction to move to the B1G will be far less.
04-23-2016 12:20 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
(04-23-2016 11:51 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  I think Kansas and Oklahoma will move to the Big 10. Oklahoma is tired of Texas's BS. The only way for them to move is to allow the Big 12 stay as a P5 conference once Texas leaves which means the Big 12 will Cherry Pick the best schools from the MWC and AAC respectably.

I doubt the presidents of the B1G, the conference that makes the most money want to expand with Kansas & Oklahoma. Both schools would be in the lower half of the B1G academically.

B1G I think sees more value in UNC and Virginia because of their academics. Georgia Tech possibly. A Virginia/UConn move to control the East Coast athletically.

Assuming all GOR's are up....

B1G (Virginia/UConn)
PAC (Oklahoma/Kansas)
ACC (WVU/Cincinnati/Texas non-FB)
B12 (BYU, Colorado St, New Mexico, UNLV, Boise St, Houston)
AAC (Army)
MWC (NMSU, UTEP, Rice)

This way the conference run down in terms of size would be the following....

B1G 16
ACC 16 Olympic Sports w/Texas & ND
SEC 14
PAC 14
B12 12

MAC 12
CUSA 12
AAC 10
MWC 10
SBC 10

The P5 conferences push up bigger for revenue while the G5 conferences downsize to maintain per school payouts from the CFP money. That makes 72 P5 schools and 54 at the G5 level. Its also easier to push back on the the percentage of CFP money that goes to the G5 when you take a big bite out of their ranks.
04-23-2016 12:44 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
Delany has manged to keep the Big XII-II relevant, but there's limits to what he can do.

The whole conference is still incredibly unstable. The good news is that the two teams that can bring it down are so prominent that someone will take them in a 'bug out' scenario, so they're not furiously looking for the exits.

There's no team from the other P5 conferences that would consider moving there at this point. There's no team from the G5 that really helps them stabilize or gain on other conferences.

The Big XII got completely outmaneuvered by the ACC. They let Louisville go to the ACC. They dithered when Clemson and Florida State were thinking about moving to a conference that puts football first. They got outmaneuvered by the SEC too. Losing TAMU was huge. They did fight off the Pac 12.

His big win? The Big XII still exists as a P5 conference.
(This post was last modified: 04-23-2016 12:53 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
04-23-2016 12:52 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
One thing I don't know we are all considering here is the rule led by the B1G stating that a conference for a title game has to have 2 divisions of equal size.

That limits B1G expansion to about 16 schools so they can have a home/away opponent cross divisional. A move to 18 or 20 would forbade that.

Virginia I see would be a good mutual fit for the B1G. UConn is a T-Shirt athletics school that also gets another bite out of the NYC metro area. Both schools need help filling their football stadiums.
04-23-2016 01:11 PM
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Nebraskafan Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
You guys have all of this wrong.

1) Several years ago, way before the timeline the OP is using, the presidents of the schools and the leaders in the B1G office met at each school to talk about the future direction that the conference wanted to take.

2) They decided to expand the conference. Why? There are millions of alumni around the country and the money is so big these days it is dumb to remain regional. They decided to become a national conference with the top target of east coast expansion. Yes, that means killing off the ACC. So be it.

3) Because they decided to expand, they also decided to accept affiliate memberships. This is done to grow lacrosse, hockey and other Olympic sports.

4) Because of the new direction that the leadership of the conference decided to do, then you start to get into the timeline the OP is using.

The B1G didn't start all of this stuff just because of the end of the BCS was near.

The next step for the B1G is to expand into regions of the country where there are a lot of alumni and new markets. That means the states of North Carolina, Texas, Georgia and Florida.

RIP the ACC.

The ACC and Big 12 will merge to create a new conference and that will have a new TV contract.
04-23-2016 01:13 PM
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Nebraskafan Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
(04-23-2016 01:11 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  One thing I don't know we are all considering here is the rule led by the B1G stating that a conference for a title game has to have 2 divisions of equal size.

That limits B1G expansion to about 16 schools so they can have a home/away opponent cross divisional. A move to 18 or 20 would forbade that.

Virginia I see would be a good mutual fit for the B1G. UConn is a T-Shirt athletics school that also gets another bite out of the NYC metro area. Both schools need help filling their football stadiums.

The divisional rules will change with expansion. For example, you are going to see the B1G create a conference semi-final game. You do that via pods.
(This post was last modified: 04-23-2016 01:15 PM by Nebraskafan.)
04-23-2016 01:14 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
(04-23-2016 01:14 PM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  
(04-23-2016 01:11 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  One thing I don't know we are all considering here is the rule led by the B1G stating that a conference for a title game has to have 2 divisions of equal size.

That limits B1G expansion to about 16 schools so they can have a home/away opponent cross divisional. A move to 18 or 20 would forbade that.

Virginia I see would be a good mutual fit for the B1G. UConn is a T-Shirt athletics school that also gets another bite out of the NYC metro area. Both schools need help filling their football stadiums.

The divisional rules will change with expansion. For example, you are going to see the B1G create a conference semi-final game. You do that via pods.

Divisional rules have been the same for 25 years until the recent change.

I think we are seeing an upward ceiling on TV money for college conferences with the B1G forced into a short term deal with Fox. That and the Indiana's an Purdue's of the world want to continue to be able to compete. Blow it up to 20 or 24 teams and there goes their chances at a conference championship.

16 might appeal though....send Indiana west and add UVA/UConn to strengthen the brand along the East Coast.

I doubt a B12/ACC combo conference is in the offing because for the NCAA restructuring votes around the P5/G5 system. A new conference would have to go through all the legalities and lack of a brand name ect.
04-23-2016 01:22 PM
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
(04-23-2016 12:52 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Delany has manged to keep the Big XII-II relevant, but there's limits to what he can do.

The whole conference is still incredibly unstable. The good news is that the two teams that can bring it down are so prominent that someone will take them in a 'bug out' scenario, so they're not furiously looking for the exits.

There's no team from the other P5 conferences that would consider moving there at this point. There's no team from the G5 that really helps them stabilize or gain on other conferences.

The Big XII got completely outmaneuvered by the ACC. They let Louisville go to the ACC. They dithered when Clemson and Florida State were thinking about moving to a conference that puts football first. They got outmaneuvered by the SEC too. Losing TAMU was huge. They did fight off the Pac 12.

His big win? The Big XII still exists as a P5 conference.

Delany is Big Ten commish not the Big 12.
04-23-2016 01:46 PM
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Nebraskafan Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
(04-23-2016 01:22 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(04-23-2016 01:14 PM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  
(04-23-2016 01:11 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  One thing I don't know we are all considering here is the rule led by the B1G stating that a conference for a title game has to have 2 divisions of equal size.

That limits B1G expansion to about 16 schools so they can have a home/away opponent cross divisional. A move to 18 or 20 would forbade that.

Virginia I see would be a good mutual fit for the B1G. UConn is a T-Shirt athletics school that also gets another bite out of the NYC metro area. Both schools need help filling their football stadiums.

The divisional rules will change with expansion. For example, you are going to see the B1G create a conference semi-final game. You do that via pods.

Divisional rules have been the same for 25 years until the recent change.

I think we are seeing an upward ceiling on TV money for college conferences with the B1G forced into a short term deal with Fox. That and the Indiana's an Purdue's of the world want to continue to be able to compete. Blow it up to 20 or 24 teams and there goes their chances at a conference championship.

16 might appeal though....send Indiana west and add UVA/UConn to strengthen the brand along the East Coast.

I doubt a B12/ACC combo conference is in the offing because for the NCAA restructuring votes around the P5/G5 system. A new conference would have to go through all the legalities and lack of a brand name ect.

There is a ceiling. That I agree with. From a footprint perspective for a conference network, Oklahoma (Dallas plus state of Oklahoma)+ Georgia Tech + FSU + UNC + UVA = roughly an additional $12 million dollars a year per school just from BTN footprint.

Texas would add roughly $6 .5M per year per school to BTN.

If you added the states of North Carolina, Texas, Florida, Georgia and California, you would top out around $20 million a year per school in addition to what the B1G already earns from BTN footprint prices.
04-23-2016 01:47 PM
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
My prediction:
ACC will be the biggest loser by 2025 because unlike the other 4 conferences who are built with big state schools, they are majority city state schools and private schools. When they lose UNC and UVA to the big ten and FSU and Clemson to the SEC they will be a conference with too many NFL teams: Miami Dolphins, Pitt Steelers, Boston Patriots....and Louisville who should have an NFL team to occupy their Fast food themed semi-professional stadium by then. I suppose they will then back fill with the Cincinatti Bengals, Tampa Bay Bulls and Philadelphia Owls making their situation worse. Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, ECU and North Carolina St will be in the big 12 by then. The ACC will lose the Orange Bowl tie in, but will maintain their ESPN contact with the "ACC Wednesday" game of the week playing on ESPN Ten: The Douche.
Cheers!
(This post was last modified: 04-24-2016 10:04 AM by billybobby777.)
04-23-2016 09:00 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
Delany wants to get the Big 10 to 22 or 24 teams. Oklahoma (football), Kansas (basketball), Texas, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Florida State are the main targets.
04-23-2016 10:04 PM
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
(04-23-2016 01:11 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  One thing I don't know we are all considering here is the rule led by the B1G stating that a conference for a title game has to have 2 divisions of equal size.

That limits B1G expansion to about 16 schools so they can have a home/away opponent cross divisional. A move to 18 or 20 would forbade that.
Is this technically correct? AFAIR, the rule also deregulated playing a complete round robin in that division to determine division champion. That would allow an 18 school conference to play a nine game in conference schedule against two cross division opponents and 7 out of 8 in-division opponents.
04-23-2016 10:38 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
(04-23-2016 10:38 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(04-23-2016 01:11 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  One thing I don't know we are all considering here is the rule led by the B1G stating that a conference for a title game has to have 2 divisions of equal size.

That limits B1G expansion to about 16 schools so they can have a home/away opponent cross divisional. A move to 18 or 20 would forbade that.
Is this technically correct? AFAIR, the rule also deregulated playing a complete round robin in that division to determine division champion. That would allow an 18 school conference to play a nine game in conference schedule against two cross division opponents and 7 out of 8 in-division opponents.

Round robin, two divisional play is required.

The only thing was deregulated was you can hold a championship game with less than 12 members.
04-23-2016 11:50 PM
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
(04-23-2016 09:00 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  My prediction:
ACC will be the biggest loser by 2025 because unlike the other 4 conferences who are built with big state schools, they are majority city state schools and private schools. When they lose UNC and UVA to the big ten and FSU and Clemson to the SEC they will be a conference with too many NFL teams: Miami Dolphins, Pitt Steelers, Boston Patriots....and Louisville who should have an NFL team to occupy their Fast food themed semi-professional stadium by then. I suppose they will then back fill with the Cincinatti Bengals, Florida Bulls and Philadelphia Owls making their situation worse. Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, ECU and North Carolina St will be in the big 12 by then. The ACC will lose the Orange Bowl tie in, but will maintain their ESPN contact with the "ACC Wednesday" game of the week playing on ESPN Ten: The Douche.
Cheers!
I don't think it's possible to predict a conference's fortunes or misfortunes nearly a decade out, but, if what you predict comes to pass, I wonder if the ACC would ever consider cutting loose some of its underperforming schools, like what the Big East did with Temple, in order to survive mostly intact?
04-24-2016 03:26 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
The ACC already cut loose one of their underperforming schools and that was Maryland. They added some more like Syracuse.
04-24-2016 05:29 AM
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RE: The brilliance of Delany
(04-23-2016 12:20 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  If the PAC could get Oklahoma/Kansas and the ACC a ND type deal with Texas its make it more of a 4 conference race with the B12 reduced to tweener status.

PAC (Oklahoma, Kansas)
ACC (Texas non-FB)
B12 (BYU, Colorado St, Houston, Cincinnati, UConn)
AAC (Army)
MWC (UTEP)

Resolved a bunch of issues:

1) PAC network getting off the ground.
2) A better long term home for Texas.
3) BYU finds a P5 home.
4) Army finds a conference.
5) UTEP moves west.
The AAC won't be adding Army. Navy wants a conference game in the state of Texas each year, so the American will take either Rice or UTSA from Conference USA. If UConn does go to the Big 12, the American will pretty much abandon the Northeast, with Temple being at the edge of the conference. I personally think Memphis would get the call ahead of UConn if nothing else to make adding BYU and Colorado State more manageable.

Since the departure of Rice or UTSA leaves C-USA at 13 members, C-USA either adds Texas State if UTEP stays (which may be a given if UTSA leaves) or is content to let UTEP walk to the Mountain West, and then UTEP schedules its non-conference games to maintain ties in the state of Texas.
04-24-2016 07:43 AM
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