How frequently do MAC freshmen end up playing 4 years at a school?
So looking at how frequently MAC basketball players end up playing 4 years at a school -
I have data from 2003 to present. I counted up how many players were identified as freshmen each year, and how many ended up playing 4 seasons for the school.
The data is somewhat good, but it does miss a few details. Someone like Pat Forsythe, who played a little at West Virginia, then played 4 seasons at Akron looked like a freshmen at Akron in my data. Also, someone like Kellon Thomas, who played some in 2014-2015 before taking a medical redshirt, looks like he played 4 seasons at Kent, but has 1 more year of eligibility at IUPUI.
Also, someone like Derek Jackson, who played 2 years at CMU and 2 years at Kent State won't count as a 4-year player.
Looking at freshmen classes from 2003 through 2012, the MAC had 432 incoming freshmen, of which 191 of these played 4 seasons. That's 44% players who played 4 years. So 4 out of 9 freshmen stick around
Which schools have kept the most players 4 years? Just 3 schools graduated 50% of their recruits - Ohio at 19 of 30 for 63%, WMU at 23 of 36 for 64%, and Buffalo with 26 of 37 for 70%. If I included this year, it might be different for Buffalo and Ohio because of their coaching changes last year. Buffalo had all 5 of their 2007 freshmen play 4 seasons.
Schools that don't keep players around - and a lot of this has to do with coaching changes - Toledo just had 11 players play 4 years, out of 49 incoming freshmen, for 22%. This was capped by the incoming class of 2009 where they had 8 freshmen, where only 1 lasted 3 seasons. CMO kept 29% around, with 11 out of 38 recruits. Northern Illinois and Ball State had 13 4-year players out of 39 freshmen for this period.
It's hard to see a trend in the year-by-year data, as it seems to jump around. I don't know if you could say 'it ain't like it used to be' - 2003 at 46%, 2004 at 56%, 2005 at 35% 2006 at 48%, 2007 at 53%, 2008 at 44%, 2009 at 39%, 2010 at 52%, 2011 at 33%, 2012 at 38%
I would be curious to go back to the team rosters in the 80s and see what percentage stuck around back then. I don't have the time or the data now to look.
So for a coach, signing 4 freshmen every year probably isn't enough. On average, a MAC freshman recruit lasted 2.2 seasons. If you sign 5 freshmen a year, you can keep your roster full, but you'd be bottom-heavy with young players.
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How frequently do MAC freshmen end up playing 4 years at a school?
