(04-20-2016 02:59 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(04-20-2016 01:34 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-20-2016 12:02 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I applaud the Big Ten moving to Fox. It gets a conference I never watch onto a station I never watch. It's a win-win for me.

The only problem I see is the 11AM starts that ESPN regularly dumped on The Big Ten. Who will fill those slots now? Noon starts are bad enough 11AM is downright dreadful
CJ

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched, CJ. It's very likely that the Big Ten will still sell the rest of its rights to ESPN and it will just as likely ensure that all games will end up on either ABC or ESPN (and not any on ESPN2, ESPNU and/or ESPNEWS). The Big Ten will get the best ABC/ESPN time slots by contract (because they have shown that they know how to negotiate) and the rest of the conferences (outside of the SEC, who has also shown that they know how to negotiate) will get pushed to the worse time slots accordingly because they don't have those contractual protections.

Everyone needs to stop looking at the loss of half of Big Ten content as time slots for ABC or ESPN to fill. Unless the Big Ten completely leaves ESPN (still *extremely* unlikely), look at it as time slots on ESPN2, ESPNU and ESPNEWS to fill. None of the other conferences (except for the SEC, which is contractually protected) should get ANY hopes up about getting better treatment on ABC or the mothership ESPN.

Frank...they aren't going to put crap on there (depends what the B1G would give them). I can't see Ruttie, Purdue, NW, ILL, Minnie and IU filling primo slots.

No, but I think people are wrongly assuming that ESPN is only going to end up with "crap". At the same time, the Big Ten is in the bargaining position to demand better time slots. Even games featuring the so-called bottom feeders of the Big Ten have had consistent ratings. Let's put it this way: the Big Ten's "crap" has shown to be a lot more valuable (due to demographics and markets) compared to every other conference's crap outside of maybe the SEC. That's why the Big Ten is getting paid so much by third parties and earns so much from the BTN in the first place.

You're using the classic straw man of saying, "ESPN isn't going to want to show Illinois vs. Rutgers!" That might be true, but that game was likely going to end up on BTN, anyway. ABC and ESPN have gladly shown games like Northwestern vs. Michigan State, Illinois vs. Michigan or Ohio State vs. Rutgers, though, which the Big Ten has a deep well of options virtually every week. Those matchups compare favorably from a TV ratings perspective compared to, say, Florida State vs. Wake Forest or Texas vs. Iowa State. We're not talking about FSU vs. Clemson or Texas vs. Oklahoma getting replaced here. It's really the next tier of games (e.g. Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State/Nebraska vs. a lower tier program or the games involving the revolving high performing programs like MSU, Wisconsin or Iowa) where both the Big Ten and SEC have a more valuable inventory compared to the other P5 conferences... and that's why they are separating from the rest of college sports in terms of dollars. There's just a lot more depth of high value games in those two leagues beyond the #1 game of the week.

Think of it this way: ESPN has *zero* access to the top SEC game of the week (which goes to CBS) and we certainly don't see any shortage of SEC games on the ESPN mothership. In contrast, ESPN is likely getting 50% of the top Big Ten games of the week as a minimum plus a whole slew of #2 or #3 games that are quite worthy of an ABC or ESPN slot. Anyone that thinks that lots of space is suddenly going to open up on ABC and ESPN is fooling themselves. From a financial and exposure perspective, the Big Ten has come out on top EVERY SINGLE TIME in EVERY SINGLE MOVE in the past decade, whether it's TV contracts to bowls to the CFP. Like I've said, fans of other conferences shouldn't be thinking they're suddenly going to get an upgrade in sloppy seconds - both the Big Ten and SEC definitely know how to get everyone else's hopes up and then either one-upping and/or outright screwing them.

I assume FOX gets the best 25 games....that works out to almost 2 games a weekend. I assume 1 primetime FOX game and 1 mid-afternoon FOX or FS1 game.

So will ESPN bid for games 26-50? I could see if they won the bid...it would be the Noon ESPN game and the rest for ABC regional/ESPN2. I assume the rest goes to BTN and maybe some sold to another outlet (1 game a week to CBSSports?).

The B1G going forward will have 63 regular season games plus the Championship. They will have theoretically about 50 non-conference hosting opportunities....so about 110-115 B1G hosted games a year. Is my math right?

(04-20-2016 03:50 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  They will have theoretically about 50 non-conference hosting opportunities

Not that many. 9 game conference schedule, 3 non-con games per team for 14 teams, even if all of those non-con games were hosted by the Big Ten team (which won't happen), that's only 42 non-con games total per season.

(04-20-2016 03:50 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  I assume FOX gets the best 25 games....that works out to almost 2 games a weekend. I assume 1 primetime FOX game and 1 mid-afternoon FOX or FS1 game.

So will ESPN bid for games 26-50? I could see if they won the bid...it would be the Noon ESPN game and the rest for ABC regional/ESPN2. I assume the rest goes to BTN and maybe some sold to another outlet (1 game a week to CBSSports?).

The B1G going forward will have 63 regular season games plus the Championship. They will have theoretically about 50 non-conference hosting opportunities....so about 110-115 B1G hosted games a year. Is my math right?

Not necessarily. I read the article to suggest that Fox could get the top 25 games depending on what the bids are in the second round. I do believe that Fox gets at least 25 games though.

I would speculate that Fox has bids for three possible outcomes, Tier 1, a split of Tiers 1 and 2, and Tier 2. I assume that the B1G will award the second half of the package based on the highest combination of rights fees from taking one of Fox's alternative bids and one of the offers it receives in the second round. So, for instance, ESPN could bid $251 million for tier 1, and NBC could bid $100 million for Tier 2. If NBC's Tier 2 bid plus Fox's Tier 1 bid is more than ESPN's Tier 1 bid plus Fox's Tier 2 bid, NBC beats ESPN (and Fox gets the top 25 games).

Frank,
I hope you are correct. I have no problem with The Big Ten keeping games on ESPN, just assures The ACC isn't stuck with the 11AM starts that The Big Ten seems to enjoy.

Was just pointing out The Big Ten moving to Fox, FS1 2 or 3 won't get me to watch.
CJ

(04-20-2016 01:34 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-20-2016 12:02 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I applaud the Big Ten moving to Fox. It gets a conference I never watch onto a station I never watch. It's a win-win for me.

The only problem I see is the 11AM starts that ESPN regularly dumped on The Big Ten. Who will fill those slots now? Noon starts are bad enough 11AM is downright dreadful
CJ

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched, CJ. It's very likely that the Big Ten will still sell the rest of its rights to ESPN and it will just as likely ensure that all games will end up on either ABC or ESPN (and not any on ESPN2, ESPNU and/or ESPNEWS). The Big Ten will get the best ABC/ESPN time slots by contract (because they have shown that they know how to negotiate) and the rest of the conferences (outside of the SEC, who has also shown that they know how to negotiate) will get pushed to the worse time slots accordingly because they don't have those contractual protections.

Everyone needs to stop looking at the loss of half of Big Ten content as time slots for ABC or ESPN to fill. Unless the Big Ten completely leaves ESPN (still *extremely* unlikely), look at it as time slots on ESPN2, ESPNU and ESPNEWS to fill. None of the other conferences (except for the SEC, which is contractually protected) should get ANY hopes up about getting better treatment on ABC or the mothership ESPN.

It's almost a near certainty that Fox doesn't get the top 25 games. I think Texan Mark is doing a whole hell of a lot of hoping in his analysis.

Also- Big 10 has maximum 105 games. 63 conference games and 42 OOC games. That would be if all 14 teams only played at home for their now 3 OOC games. Realistically it's going to be about 95-100 games.

(04-20-2016 03:58 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(04-20-2016 03:50 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  They will have theoretically about 50 non-conference hosting opportunities

Not that many. 9 game conference schedule, 3 non-con games per team for 14 teams, even if all of those non-con games were hosted by the Big Ten team (which won't happen), that's only 42 non-con games total per season.

Duh...thought 4 OOC vs 3 OOC games...so maybe 30 games...

(04-20-2016 04:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It's almost a near certainty that Fox doesn't get the top 25 games. I think Texan Mark is doing a whole hell of a lot of hoping in his analysis.

Also- Big 10 has maximum 105 games. 63 conference games and 42 OOC games. That would be if all 14 teams only played at home for their now 3 OOC games. Realistically it's going to be about 95-100 games.

If they pay top dollar. for those 25 games..you don't think ESPN is going to pay them a premium, do you? FOX is going to use those games to build their brand.

One perception of this deal could be that the B1G is being paid a kings ransom to take a 6 year gamble on Fox. With millions of people dropping or downsizing cable packages, cable companies are looking for ways to keep customers and sell premium packages. Why would ESPN be opposed to this as you can't get FS1 or FS2 without having ESPN and their lineups. Cable companies are probably begging for more help from ESPN and Fox.

(04-20-2016 04:28 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(04-20-2016 04:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It's almost a near certainty that Fox doesn't get the top 25 games. I think Texan Mark is doing a whole hell of a lot of hoping in his analysis.

Also- Big 10 has maximum 105 games. 63 conference games and 42 OOC games. That would be if all 14 teams only played at home for their now 3 OOC games. Realistically it's going to be about 95-100 games.

If they pay top dollar. for those 25 games..you don't think ESPN is going to pay them a premium, do you? FOX is going to use those games to build their brand.

I think someone will pay to split it with Fox. Big Ten would get more money that way which is what they want. Plus more of their top games on better exposure. I think what you are hoping(praying) is that 250 million is for the top 25 games and then maybe only another 100 million for the other 25 games. Big Ten is going to be getting at least 400 million dollars, and very possibly up to 500 million dollars. And at that number- there isn't a damn thing ESPN could do to save the ACC. If ESPN isn't spending their money on the Big Ten, they sure as hell aren't wasting it on the ACC....

(04-20-2016 03:32 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-20-2016 02:59 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(04-20-2016 01:34 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-20-2016 12:02 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I applaud the Big Ten moving to Fox. It gets a conference I never watch onto a station I never watch. It's a win-win for me.

The only problem I see is the 11AM starts that ESPN regularly dumped on The Big Ten. Who will fill those slots now? Noon starts are bad enough 11AM is downright dreadful
CJ

Don't count your chickens before they're hatched, CJ. It's very likely that the Big Ten will still sell the rest of its rights to ESPN and it will just as likely ensure that all games will end up on either ABC or ESPN (and not any on ESPN2, ESPNU and/or ESPNEWS). The Big Ten will get the best ABC/ESPN time slots by contract (because they have shown that they know how to negotiate) and the rest of the conferences (outside of the SEC, who has also shown that they know how to negotiate) will get pushed to the worse time slots accordingly because they don't have those contractual protections.

Everyone needs to stop looking at the loss of half of Big Ten content as time slots for ABC or ESPN to fill. Unless the Big Ten completely leaves ESPN (still *extremely* unlikely), look at it as time slots on ESPN2, ESPNU and ESPNEWS to fill. None of the other conferences (except for the SEC, which is contractually protected) should get ANY hopes up about getting better treatment on ABC or the mothership ESPN.

Frank...they aren't going to put crap on there (depends what the B1G would give them). I can't see Ruttie, Purdue, NW, ILL, Minnie and IU filling primo slots.

No, but I think people are wrongly assuming that ESPN is only going to end up with "crap". At the same time, the Big Ten is in the bargaining position to demand better time slots. Even games featuring the so-called bottom feeders of the Big Ten have had consistent ratings. Let's put it this way: the Big Ten's "crap" has shown to be a lot more valuable (due to demographics and markets) compared to every other conference's crap outside of maybe the SEC. That's why the Big Ten is getting paid so much by third parties and earns so much from the BTN in the first place.

You're using the classic straw man of saying, "ESPN isn't going to want to show Illinois vs. Rutgers!" That might be true, but that game was likely going to end up on BTN, anyway. ABC and ESPN have gladly shown games like Northwestern vs. Michigan State, Illinois vs. Michigan or Ohio State vs. Rutgers, though, which the Big Ten has a deep well of options virtually every week. Those matchups compare favorably from a TV ratings perspective compared to, say, Florida State vs. Wake Forest or Texas vs. Iowa State. We're not talking about FSU vs. Clemson or Texas vs. Oklahoma getting replaced here. It's really the next tier of games (e.g. Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State/Nebraska vs. a lower tier program or the games involving the revolving high performing programs like MSU, Wisconsin or Iowa) where both the Big Ten and SEC have a more valuable inventory compared to the other P5 conferences... and that's why they are separating from the rest of college sports in terms of dollars. There's just a lot more depth of high value games in those two leagues beyond the #1 game of the week.

Think of it this way: ESPN has *zero* access to the top SEC game of the week (which goes to CBS) and we certainly don't see any shortage of SEC games on the ESPN mothership. In contrast, ESPN is likely getting 50% of the top Big Ten games of the week as a minimum plus a whole slew of #2 or #3 games that are quite worthy of an ABC or ESPN slot. Anyone that thinks that lots of space is suddenly going to open up on ABC and ESPN is fooling themselves. From a financial and exposure perspective, the Big Ten has come out on top EVERY SINGLE TIME in EVERY SINGLE MOVE in the past decade, whether it's TV contracts to bowls to the CFP. Like I've said, fans of other conferences shouldn't be thinking they're suddenly going to get an upgrade in sloppy seconds - both the Big Ten and SEC definitely know how to get everyone else's hopes up and then either one-upping and/or outright screwing them.

There's not that much difference in the ratings except that the SEC is tops. http://thesportseconomist.com/2015/02/09...n-ratings/

Maybe there is potential and they are looking at history from 10 years ago. But right now, the Big 10 is not very deep in football and isn't getting much better ratings than the other 3. Much of that difference is from their big "brands."

Fox is paying for getting a lot of the top games. The B1G does have 4 kings, which nobody else has. They want those mega-games like Alabama-LSU that will make Fox and FS1 a place to go for sports.

(04-20-2016 09:36 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  As a competitor to the ESPN Family after the contract takes effect?

Personally I don't get FS-1 and 2 and haven't missed it (as there is very little on I would watch). FOX obviously is big time and I think their ratings will improve with more B1G games with the B12. I might look at adding FOX/FX/etc.. with my Sling Account but I'm taking a wait and see.

I wonder if FS 1 + 2 gather an audience anything close to ESPN/2/U? I'm not so sure.

I don't think so. I have/had both FOX channels. I'm not sure if I still have FX2. But my point is this. I had to hunt the danged things if there was something on them I wanted to see. I know where the major network channels are and where the ESPN cluster is located. I know FOX is up about 15 or so numbers from there. But FX2 was located in a block of channels a couple of hundred away.

If something is going to be successful it takes years to learn where to find it among a plethora of never watched channels. Ditto for the Turner distribution method. The NCAA tournament is a pain in the butt to switch between.

(04-20-2016 04:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It's almost a near certainty that Fox doesn't get the top 25 games.

I think it depends how much money ESPN comes to the table with. The variable price is interesting, with $250M as a max. It could be that Fox is signing up for 25 games, 12 on Big Fox, 12 on FS1. $250M is for the 1st 25 picks. ESPN is assigned games 26-50 for some amount that Fox and Delaney have shaken hands on. If ESPN wants better game picks, they need to come up with more money.

Delaney and ESPN have had conversations and negotiations. IT's very possible that ESPN signalled to Delaney that they could live with the #3 and #4 Big Ten game each week for significantly less money than Fox is paying.

(SEtting aside basketball, because this is complicated enough just figuring out one sport, but the principles of paying X for Y Big Ten games, but paying 2X for the premium picks of Big Ten games.)

(04-20-2016 01:39 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  My guess is FS1 doesn't become "legitimate", such as it is, until it gets included in the NFL contracts. Pro football legitimizes you quickly. That's how FOX did it. But those contracts don't come up until 2021, and I presume there's no way to divvy up the pie to create a slice for FS1 in the meantime.

What Fox and CBS need are national games shown on FS1 and CBSSN - they would have to be during the Sunday broadcast windows, but that is the last remaining avenue for the Big 4 to leverage the NFL on cable. I could also see CBS partnering with Turner for such a deal. This in theory could happen now, but I don't know how much the NFL needs to extract from both networks to modify the contracts.

(04-20-2016 06:26 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(04-20-2016 01:39 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  My guess is FS1 doesn't become "legitimate", such as it is, until it gets included in the NFL contracts. Pro football legitimizes you quickly. That's how FOX did it. But those contracts don't come up until 2021, and I presume there's no way to divvy up the pie to create a slice for FS1 in the meantime.

What Fox and CBS need are national games shown on FS1 and CBSSN - they would have to be during the Sunday broadcast windows, but that is the last remaining avenue for the Big 4 to leverage the NFL on cable. I could also see CBS partnering with Turner for such a deal. This in theory could happen now, but I don't know how much the NFL needs to extract from both networks to modify the contracts.

Maybe something where the national game of the week is broadcast on FS1 in areas where it's preempted by a local/regional team on FOX, with the secondary GOTW on FS1 everywhere else.

CBSSN could really use a setup like that because they seem pretty obviously the fourth-place sports network, a step behind NBCSN and FS1 and a Sunday drive behind ESPN.