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B1G looks to be cashing in
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orangefan Offline
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Post: #21
RE: B1G looks to be cashing in
(04-19-2016 07:21 PM)ren.hoek Wrote:  Interesting that the article says ESPN made a non competitive offer. Could this mean that ESPN will go all in with the ACC? Maybe wishful thinking, but the non competitive offer does raise an eyebrow to make you wonder what their strategy might be.

I would speculate that ESPN was unwilling to set the bar by offering the highest bid for half the package. I'm also guessing that Fox has bids for three possible outcomes, Tier 1, a split of Tiers 1 and 2, and Tier 2. Fox has set the bar, but ESPN can still step in and buy half the package.

I assume that the B1G will award the second half of the package based on the highest combination of rights fees from one Fox's alternative bids and offers receive from other networks. So, for instance, ESPN could bid $251 million for tier 1, and NBC could bid $100 million for Tier 2. If NBC's Tier 2 bid plus Fox's Tier 1 bid is more than ESPN's Tier 1 bid plus Fox's Tier 2 bid, NBC beats ESPN.
04-20-2016 01:33 PM
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Hallcity Offline
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Post: #22
RE: B1G looks to be cashing in
(04-20-2016 10:47 AM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  
(04-20-2016 10:30 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(04-20-2016 09:37 AM)nole Wrote:  
(04-19-2016 06:48 PM)TopperCard Wrote:  Good article on how ESPN needs to be a better media partner to the ACC in light of the new B1G deal.

http://allsportsdiscussion.com/2016/04/1...-revealed/

Interesting.

I have LONG been saying here ESPN treats the ACC as 2nd class and I was repeatedly told I was wrong.

So what is it? Is ESPN a good partner or not?

We'll see...remember generally the B1G teams garner better ratings...so they should get paid more. It is up to the ACC to respond...I think the league as a whole is starting to evolve into the 3rd Pillar.

It's mind boggling to me why some don't understand that what Ohio State and Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin, Michigan State and Minnesota are being paid for is alumni bases that are TWICE the size of ACC alumni bases and everything that goes with that. There's a reason that for the most part, you can peg P-5 revenue to a combination of the size of the Alumni Base and the size and age of the Football stadium.

Outliers are Florida State, Oregon, Louisville, Notre Dame, and formerly Miami.

Only deep time changes these structural differences.

If you look at the outliers I cited how did they move up against the structural constraints?

1. FSU was in the second best location in America for talent and obtained the right coach who stayed in Tallahassee
2. Louisville committed to big time football in the early 1980's and poured Louisville region cash into their programs and have avoid any professional or other regional competition
3. Oregon had Nike
4. Notre Dame had the American body of Catholics who adopted it as their sports university of choice
5. Miami had the best location of talent in America and used to cheat like Hell

It's a zero sum game that appears from the outside not to be zero sum, that's the illusion.

Well, the solution is obvious. ACC schools need to reorganize themselves so they have 100,000 or so students. Problem solved.
04-20-2016 06:47 PM
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ohio1317 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: B1G looks to be cashing in
Part of these deals is certainly alumni (they are the most likely to watch games). I view the other factors like this:
1. Timing. ACC timing on TV contract ended up sucking, but that was apparent at the time.
2. National prominence: Forget your local following for a second and think on a national level. How many people outside your region will watch some of the conferences games. There is a historical bias in this measure as past success is a huge factor in this.
3. I view the biggest factor as kind of an equation. Let's call it depth x number of fans. Some fanbases on average are far more dedicated than others and some fan bases are a lot bigger. A very dedicated fanbase might be worth just as much to a network as fanbase with twice as many fans if the smaller fanbase watches consistently and the bigger one doesn't. There are a very limited number of schools with a wide fanbase that on average are extremely passionate as well.
04-21-2016 12:19 AM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #24
RE: B1G looks to be cashing in
(04-20-2016 01:33 PM)orangefan Wrote:  
(04-19-2016 07:21 PM)ren.hoek Wrote:  Interesting that the article says ESPN made a non competitive offer. Could this mean that ESPN will go all in with the ACC? Maybe wishful thinking, but the non competitive offer does raise an eyebrow to make you wonder what their strategy might be.

I would speculate that ESPN was unwilling to set the bar by offering the highest bid for half the package. I'm also guessing that Fox has bids for three possible outcomes, Tier 1, a split of Tiers 1 and 2, and Tier 2. Fox has set the bar, but ESPN can still step in and buy half the package.

I assume that the B1G will award the second half of the package based on the highest combination of rights fees from one Fox's alternative bids and offers receive from other networks. So, for instance, ESPN could bid $251 million for tier 1, and NBC could bid $100 million for Tier 2. If NBC's Tier 2 bid plus Fox's Tier 1 bid is more than ESPN's Tier 1 bid plus Fox's Tier 2 bid, NBC beats ESPN.

Do you really think $250M was the bid? I don't...I think it is a manipulation by Delaney and or FOX to shape the negotiation. Everyone knows that the B1G won't go all in with FOX...they need ESPN.
04-21-2016 08:29 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #25
RE: B1G looks to be cashing in
(04-21-2016 08:29 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(04-20-2016 01:33 PM)orangefan Wrote:  
(04-19-2016 07:21 PM)ren.hoek Wrote:  Interesting that the article says ESPN made a non competitive offer. Could this mean that ESPN will go all in with the ACC? Maybe wishful thinking, but the non competitive offer does raise an eyebrow to make you wonder what their strategy might be.

I would speculate that ESPN was unwilling to set the bar by offering the highest bid for half the package. I'm also guessing that Fox has bids for three possible outcomes, Tier 1, a split of Tiers 1 and 2, and Tier 2. Fox has set the bar, but ESPN can still step in and buy half the package.

I assume that the B1G will award the second half of the package based on the highest combination of rights fees from one Fox's alternative bids and offers receive from other networks. So, for instance, ESPN could bid $251 million for tier 1, and NBC could bid $100 million for Tier 2. If NBC's Tier 2 bid plus Fox's Tier 1 bid is more than ESPN's Tier 1 bid plus Fox's Tier 2 bid, NBC beats ESPN.

Do you really think $250M was the bid? I don't...I think it is a manipulation by Delaney and or FOX to shape the negotiation. Everyone knows that the B1G won't go all in with FOX...they need ESPN.

Fox had a huge advantage right from the start - they still get 51% of the revenue from any games that get pushed down to the BTN. So I thought Fox getting tier 1 was a foregone conclusion. Still, $10M/game is WAY above the current going rate, and is in fact more like what these made-for-tv neutral site games pay out.

I do expect ESPN to win the tier 2 bid, but for the going rate of about $3M/game, or about $100M/year for 30 games, give or take.
04-21-2016 08:48 AM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #26
RE: B1G looks to be cashing in
(04-21-2016 08:48 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(04-21-2016 08:29 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(04-20-2016 01:33 PM)orangefan Wrote:  
(04-19-2016 07:21 PM)ren.hoek Wrote:  Interesting that the article says ESPN made a non competitive offer. Could this mean that ESPN will go all in with the ACC? Maybe wishful thinking, but the non competitive offer does raise an eyebrow to make you wonder what their strategy might be.

I would speculate that ESPN was unwilling to set the bar by offering the highest bid for half the package. I'm also guessing that Fox has bids for three possible outcomes, Tier 1, a split of Tiers 1 and 2, and Tier 2. Fox has set the bar, but ESPN can still step in and buy half the package.

I assume that the B1G will award the second half of the package based on the highest combination of rights fees from one Fox's alternative bids and offers receive from other networks. So, for instance, ESPN could bid $251 million for tier 1, and NBC could bid $100 million for Tier 2. If NBC's Tier 2 bid plus Fox's Tier 1 bid is more than ESPN's Tier 1 bid plus Fox's Tier 2 bid, NBC beats ESPN.

Do you really think $250M was the bid? I don't...I think it is a manipulation by Delaney and or FOX to shape the negotiation. Everyone knows that the B1G won't go all in with FOX...they need ESPN.

Fox had a huge advantage right from the start - they still get 51% of the revenue from any games that get pushed down to the BTN. So I thought Fox getting tier 1 was a foregone conclusion. Still, $10M/game is WAY above the current going rate, and is in fact more like what these made-for-tv neutral site games pay out.

I do expect ESPN to win the tier 2 bid, but for the going rate of about $3M/game, or about $100M/year for 30 games, give or take.

I think $10M per game is BS...CBS pays $5M and it might go to $10M in a few years for exclusive rights to the Army/Navy game per year. That is one of the top games of the year.

Edit forgot about basketball...probably the 12th-13th best matchup would yield about $6.5 to 7.0M per game.
(This post was last modified: 04-21-2016 10:27 PM by TexanMark.)
04-21-2016 09:19 AM
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Post: #27
RE: B1G looks to be cashing in
(04-19-2016 04:40 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily...g-Ten.aspx

If the B1G is to get $17-18M from the tier 1 with 25 football games & 50 basketball games. Some are assuming tier 2 will get that and although they are not as valuable I did read it appears more content could be directed into tier 2 than tier 1 or have more inventory for BTN making it more valuable. It would seem $40-$45M from just tv and not even including playoffs/bowl money is very reasonable.

The other thing is this isn't even a very long deal its only in place for 6 years.

Do you think this revenue difference will make any of the ACC schools think about moving? This will be a big disparity in tv revenues.

None that wouldn't already prefer to be in a different conference. And that conference isn't the B1G. If more media money produced better teams, schools like Purdue wouldn't suck the way they do. This will only bother some ACC fans. It won't bother the schools they root for.
04-21-2016 11:44 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #28
RE: B1G looks to be cashing in
(04-21-2016 09:19 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(04-21-2016 08:48 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(04-21-2016 08:29 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(04-20-2016 01:33 PM)orangefan Wrote:  
(04-19-2016 07:21 PM)ren.hoek Wrote:  Interesting that the article says ESPN made a non competitive offer. Could this mean that ESPN will go all in with the ACC? Maybe wishful thinking, but the non competitive offer does raise an eyebrow to make you wonder what their strategy might be.

I would speculate that ESPN was unwilling to set the bar by offering the highest bid for half the package. I'm also guessing that Fox has bids for three possible outcomes, Tier 1, a split of Tiers 1 and 2, and Tier 2. Fox has set the bar, but ESPN can still step in and buy half the package.

I assume that the B1G will award the second half of the package based on the highest combination of rights fees from one Fox's alternative bids and offers receive from other networks. So, for instance, ESPN could bid $251 million for tier 1, and NBC could bid $100 million for Tier 2. If NBC's Tier 2 bid plus Fox's Tier 1 bid is more than ESPN's Tier 1 bid plus Fox's Tier 2 bid, NBC beats ESPN.

Do you really think $250M was the bid? I don't...I think it is a manipulation by Delaney and or FOX to shape the negotiation. Everyone knows that the B1G won't go all in with FOX...they need ESPN.

Fox had a huge advantage right from the start - they still get 51% of the revenue from any games that get pushed down to the BTN. So I thought Fox getting tier 1 was a foregone conclusion. Still, $10M/game is WAY above the current going rate, and is in fact more like what these made-for-tv neutral site games pay out.

I do expect ESPN to win the tier 2 bid, but for the going rate of about $3M/game, or about $100M/year for 30 games, give or take.

I think $10M per game is BS...CBS pays $5M and it might go to $10M in a few years for exclusive rights to the Army/Navy game per year. That is one of the top games of the year.

Pardon me... since football is only 80% of the contract, it amounts to $8M per game. Not sure what you meant, but I will admit that Fox is OVERPAYING to get Tier 1 (if, in fact, they do end up with first pick). Of those 25 games I'd say maybe 10 of them are worth $8 to $10M; the rest are worth probably $3 to $5M each.

Having said that, I doubt the ACC has 10 games worth more than $5M each in its current schedule configuration. Let's see...
FSU vs Miami
FSU vs Clemson
Clemson vs GT (maybe?)
VT vs Miami (maybe?)
VT vs GT (a stretch!)
plus the 2 to 3 games against Notre Dame (maybe)

The saving grace: the ACC has about 10 basketball games worth $3 to $5M each.
04-21-2016 12:44 PM
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HtownOrange Offline
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Post: #29
RE: B1G looks to be cashing in
One point not made in this thread is that IF Fox broadcasts the 25 and 50 games. There is no clarity on whether Fox has to accept the full 25 games and the full 50 in hoops. In return, the B1G can sell the games Fax doe snot take. In other words, Fox may merely be assisting the B1G puff up their price (let's be honest, the B1G has a few games that do well nationally) so paying a premium for the choice games is not really that big of a deal. Especially when one considers that Fox may be able to force down to the BTN (where they own 51%) that would normally be Tier 2 games (assuming that the tier 2 rights are for a fixed number of games). Regardless, unless someone knows the full details, guessing what the B1G will get paid is fruitless.

Recall the very nice sum they received for their share last year? Guess what the vast majority of people forget - The pot is increased by shared revenue from ticket sales. Each team puts X amount of shared revenue from ticket into the pot that the B1G then pays out at the end of the year. If each ACC team added $5MM or $10MM to the ACC revenue each year, they would have an increase of $5MM or $10MM in ACC payout at the end of the year. Sounds silly, because it IS!

Simply looking at numbers does not explain anything. Fans need to look deeper, much deeper, before jumping in with the lemmings. That said, I do wish Swofford will beat ESPN down hard when the 5 year look-in occurs.
04-21-2016 10:14 PM
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #30
RE: B1G looks to be cashing in
(04-21-2016 12:44 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(04-21-2016 09:19 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(04-21-2016 08:48 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(04-21-2016 08:29 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  
(04-20-2016 01:33 PM)orangefan Wrote:  I would speculate that ESPN was unwilling to set the bar by offering the highest bid for half the package. I'm also guessing that Fox has bids for three possible outcomes, Tier 1, a split of Tiers 1 and 2, and Tier 2. Fox has set the bar, but ESPN can still step in and buy half the package.

I assume that the B1G will award the second half of the package based on the highest combination of rights fees from one Fox's alternative bids and offers receive from other networks. So, for instance, ESPN could bid $251 million for tier 1, and NBC could bid $100 million for Tier 2. If NBC's Tier 2 bid plus Fox's Tier 1 bid is more than ESPN's Tier 1 bid plus Fox's Tier 2 bid, NBC beats ESPN.

Do you really think $250M was the bid? I don't...I think it is a manipulation by Delaney and or FOX to shape the negotiation. Everyone knows that the B1G won't go all in with FOX...they need ESPN.

Fox had a huge advantage right from the start - they still get 51% of the revenue from any games that get pushed down to the BTN. So I thought Fox getting tier 1 was a foregone conclusion. Still, $10M/game is WAY above the current going rate, and is in fact more like what these made-for-tv neutral site games pay out.

I do expect ESPN to win the tier 2 bid, but for the going rate of about $3M/game, or about $100M/year for 30 games, give or take.

I think $10M per game is BS...CBS pays $5M and it might go to $10M in a few years for exclusive rights to the Army/Navy game per year. That is one of the top games of the year.

Pardon me... since football is only 80% of the contract, it amounts to $8M per game. Not sure what you meant, but I will admit that Fox is OVERPAYING to get Tier 1 (if, in fact, they do end up with first pick). Of those 25 games I'd say maybe 10 of them are worth $8 to $10M; the rest are worth probably $3 to $5M each.

Having said that, I doubt the ACC has 10 games worth more than $5M each in its current schedule configuration. Let's see...
FSU vs Miami
FSU vs Clemson
Clemson vs GT (maybe?)
VT vs Miami (maybe?)
VT vs GT (a stretch!)
plus the 2 to 3 games against Notre Dame (maybe)

The saving grace: the ACC has about 10 basketball games worth $3 to $5M each.

Agreed Mark...I f'd up the math...forgot about the hoops. I'd figure the average game in the contract would be $6.5 to 7.0M (depending on what % you give to Hoops)
04-22-2016 09:36 AM
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Post: #31
RE: B1G looks to be cashing in
(04-20-2016 10:47 AM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  Miami had the best location of talent in America





http://caneswatch.blog.palmbeachpost.com...ro-talent/

When it comes to producing NFL talent, new study shows Miami is 'Everything U,' pretty much
-- Matt Porter ‏@mattyports

it's the talent that brings in the money ...

BEST IN SHOW
(This post was last modified: 04-27-2016 10:23 AM by green.)
04-23-2016 12:38 PM
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