(04-19-2016 03:57 PM)swvabucsfan Wrote:  

(04-19-2016 11:52 AM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  Ok.....so I'm going to go way out on a limb here, while I'm in this groove, and predict that *IF* we have no more departures, injuries, suspensions, etc., *even before we know who else might get added*, and say we should be in top 25 of the mid-major poll, and at some point be in the "others receiving votes" for the 'real' poll. SOOO much can happen between now and then that this is essentially meaningless, but there it is.

Like you, I am thinking that we are starting to get a fairly complete team that you can start to be comfortable is likely to do well. (with the usual caveats about not knowing much for certain at this time of year).

Ge'lawn took over a team that did not (yet) have a floor leader or a go-to-guy and simply willed us to 5 or 6 wins that we might not have had. But he wasn't the only one who could perform at the end - although he certainly demanded the role and did it best. Against UNCG and Morehead State it was Cromer. This year I believe that we will have other guys and other ways to win. At this time last year nobody could predict the offensive force and 3 point threat that Ge'lawn would become. I don't think that it was just that he wasn't asked to fill the role - his percentages, both from 3 (.309 with only 29 makes all year) and from the floor (.361 and only 4.5 points per game) were low. Usually an underutilized but offensively skilled player posts high percentages, because those offensive moves he does make come as a surprise, and are even more likely to succeed.

Others (Desonta? Devontavius?) may step up next year. Right now I don't feel bad at the prospect of having T.J., Desonta, and Devontavius being available to create and make a big shot at the end. I also expect better options in the front court than last year if opponents overplay the perimeter and they need to pass out of it. And, by the way, David Burrell shoots 42% from 3 with 55 makes! http://njcaa.org/sports/mbkb/2015-16/div...urrellwybs

In fact, although it would be nice to get a high quality JUCO pure point guard signed on the dotted line, I also wouldn't be too worried about ball handling and assists with T.J. giving us 3.1 assists, Desonta his end of year 3.5 and Devontavius his 2.8 with a 2.1 assists to t.o. ratio. Those 3 guys as lead guards in the rotation, with A.J. as a swing man and Jason Williams and Shemar off the bench should leave us in pretty good shape in the back court.

The front court in the hands of a Hanner, an improving Jurkin, Banks, Glass and now Burrell should be much better than last year.

That said - Forbes is still out there hunting. And Steve Forbes this time of year stalks nothing but big game. Two other names discussed as recruiting targets in prior weeks are Julian Walters and James Batemon. Walters is a 1st team JUCO All-American, and James Batemon, "merely" Honorable Mention. http://www.njcaa.org/sports/mbkb/2015-16...cans/index

Who knows who else is out there, and whether they might be impressed by our latest signings.

I wasn't dismissing the contributions (at all) of the other guards, very especially Cromer. I was just commenting on how big the loss of Guyn will be.
And as to what his shooting percentage was before he came here.....remember the level of competition was better - certainly perimeter defenses were tighter, at least in general. I understand your points, and would admittedly have to watch a lot of film of his senior year at Cincy to definitively say, but I still suspect 'that' was there, just waiting on the right "climate" to flourish. My opinion, for what it's worth, is that it was a situation similar to (though not exactly analogous to) Hamlin here, when he had this great talent that bartow just didn't recognize, and failed to even *try* to learn about. (And I could extend that to other players, but we all know those stories.)

Now....back to 'replacing' him.........it's possible Desonta, Payne, Cromer, and Williams/Johnson will more than fill the bill, with an increased number of scoring options, with Petey's deficit in that department being no longer a glaring obstacle. (And yes, I had immediately noticed Burrell's stats from 3-land! {But I also noticed very lackluster defense, to be kind, on that highlight reel, too.})*OR*.......Guyn's "intangibles" as I enumerated above may simply be irreplaceable. We have missed Pigram until Guyn came along (no offense to Jalen Riley, who although just as much a gamer, was more prone to bad shot selection and predictability). One is probably not wrong in thinking Forbes can get us another along those lines quicker than bartow could. [Tangent: isn't it amazing how we all gave bartow credit for recruiting prowess (for the most part), but compared to Forbes he already looks less impressive. As they say, "it's all relative."]

Further thoughts..........yes, Forbes is still out there hunting, and we haven't heard the word "Kansas" lately. Is it possible that one of our two new signees was playing games in Kansas during that time period? Maybe, but I think he was after Starr, and I haven't heard any more about him lately. (Or maybe I somehow missed it?)

I'm somewhat 'worried' that AJ will be odd man out in all this. He got injured in the prime of the season, and Forbes didn't get to fully "experience" all the (different-from-Guyn) intangibles he brings to the court. Oh well, as in another saying, "that's a good problem to have", although I still don't like thinking of it like that.

Wonder if Payne takes the place of Starr? They seem to have similar bodies and styles of play.

(04-20-2016 02:37 AM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  Wonder if Payne takes the place of Starr? They seem to have similar bodies and styles of play.

Really? I see nothing similar between Starr and Payne other then height. Payne is a scorer, Starr is a PG.

Starr

10.9 PPG 44.5% FG 32.2% 3pt (20-90) 56.1% FT 5.1 Asssits

Payne

21.6 PPG 51.3 FG 38.6% 3pt (71-184) 80.7% FT 2.8 Assists.

(04-20-2016 02:07 AM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  I'm somewhat 'worried' that AJ will be odd man out in all this. He got injured in the prime of the season, and Forbes didn't get to fully "experience" all the (different-from-Guyn) intangibles he brings to the court. Oh well, as in another saying, "that's a good problem to have", although I still don't like thinking of it like that.

As soon as AJ was able to start playing again Forbes gave him quality minutes. If it was anyone else, with as good as ETSU was playing at the time, they probably wouldn't have changed anything. Forbes commented early on when he got here about how hard AJ worked. He is basically a coaches dream player.

AJ will always be valuable because of his overall athleticism and hustle. Good thing is hopefully he won't have to play massive minutes and he can be fresh all the time.

(04-20-2016 02:07 AM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  I'm somewhat 'worried' that AJ will be odd man out in all this. He got injured in the prime of the season, and Forbes didn't get to fully "experience" all the (different-from-Guyn) intangibles he brings to the court. Oh well, as in another saying, "that's a good problem to have", although I still don't like thinking of it like that.

I was worried about that some last year, too, with all the new guys being brought in. But I think Forbes saw pretty early what he had in A.J.. He used him heavily from the beginning and was starting him regularly until his injury. Several times he singled him out for praise for those intangibles, starting early on. A.J.'s also one of the strongest defenders we have, and one that can defend up into the 6'4", 6'5" range, where we are weak (particularly if Burrell doesn't help us there defensively, as you fear). And A.J. has expanded his game, becoming a reliable 3 point shooter. My guess is that A.J. just makes himself an essential part of things again.

I don't disagree with either of those comments about AJ. And I know what Forbes said. I would possibly quibble with "quality minutes", but more on degree/quantity rather than whether they existed or not. And that's to be expected when one is returning from an injury. There's not the slightest bit of doubt Forbes likes AJ, and not the slightest bit of doubt about his other qualities like hustle, defense, and an improved outside shot. I *LOVE* AJ and his game.

All I'm saying is that he could still be odd man out despite all those things. Who took up the slack when he got hurt? More than any other, Deuce. And we know how that turned out. So if Burrell is another Deuce, with 2 more inches but with a slightly slower first step (and really, how could that *not* be the case?), then how ya gonna keep him on the bench? I'm not IN ANY WAY dissing AJ. Love him maybe more than any other on the team, and agree he's a coach's "dream player" (other than being only 6'2"). I'm just saying with the wealth of options that *MAY* be present, who else you gonna cut out? It's not even a prediction - just a musing. And he will not be all that 'deep' in the rotation in any event. Maybe he becomes #6 or #7 in the rotation instead of #5? Maybe he get's only 18 minutes a game instead of 25 (and I'm not taking the time to look up what he was getting; that's purely a guesstimate used for example). It's more a question of degree, that's all.

And as for Payne/Starr, of course I'm aware of those stats, too, but was going both from the video of them both, and the fact that we haven't heard about Starr signing. So again.......just musing that if Starr isn't coming, you go with the next one on the list that is in that position - even if they're not clones of each other (as if......). Remember, Williams is supposed to be able to dish, too, as I recall, in addition to being a scorer.
I was more thinking out loud; not saying that's the case.

[Addenda: My trust in Forbes is pretty high to 'manage' playing time, etc. I would like to have seen Lufile more vs. Banks, for example, but overall Forbes is such a *vast* improvement over "our previous coach" that one can't complain. My concern is really for AJ - it would be just a bit sad if his 'best' year was his sophomore one; would love to see him go out with more of a blaze of glory, if at all possible.]

Wilson benefited more then anyone when AJ got hurt, Bello got the start but his minutes stayed about the same, Wilson got healthy himself and picked up AJ's minutes.
Also Bradford got expanded minutes when Wilson started struggling late.

As far as going from the video of Starr and Payne, if it is coming down to a go to guy at the end of the game, I am looking for Payne, maybe looking for Starr to get him the ball
but I don't want Starr taking the shot.
Starr reminds me of Petey 2.0, not the best shot in the world, but not the worst and Petey probably could have scored more if he had tried. Payne is more Guyn, at least what Guyn was at ETSU, I can shoot, I can score,
give me the damn ball.

Starr would still be a nice pickup because he is more a pure PG and he is enough of a scoring threat (more so then Petey) they couldn't sag off and make it 5 on 4.

(04-19-2016 12:28 PM)Running_Fool15 Wrote:  To say David Burrell plays above the rim is a massive understatement. Geez, that guy can get UP. Looks like a fantastic wing pickup who will play significant minutes from the start.

And what can I say about Devontavius. Wow. Just wow. Found a youtube clip somebody made this morning. This guy is just legit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ABSPsChYTo

Another smooth shooting lefty! His 3-point shot reminds me of Desonta's

Well, you're right about Wilson - but I was thinking of him more in terms of 'restored' minutes. Not to mention Bello better fit the staunch defender's role better than Wilson - by far. I'm not gonna take the time to research it, but are you saying Bello's PT after AJ got hurt stayed about the same? That seems counter-intuitive to me, but I know you usually do your research.

Based on those videos, I didn't get the impression that Starr was Petey 2.0 at all. I thought I saw a much broader palette of skills.

(04-20-2016 10:48 AM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  Well, you're right about Wilson - but I was thinking of him more in terms of 'restored' minutes. Not to mention Bello better fit the staunch defender's role better than Wilson - by far. I'm not gonna take the time to research it, but are you saying Bello's PT after AJ got hurt stayed about the same? That seems counter-intuitive to me, but I know you usually do your research.

Based on those videos, I didn't get the impression that Starr was Petey 2.0 at all. I thought I saw a much broader palette of skills.

Yeah , a better version of Petey, the next edition 2.0, and maybe what Petey could have developed into with 4 years under Forbes.

By the way, I later realized that the national JUCO tournament was in Kansas, where Forbes probably saw Batemon play. And if we recall, Batemon is also out of Milwaukee, where Burrell hails from, but a different high school, I think.
Would love to have Starr, but I suspect he's going "higher".

By the way, in regards to my above comment about Burrell maybe being in the mold of Bello, I just now noticed that on the etsubucs site about Burrell's signing, there's a picture of Forbes with Bello. Coincidence? I think not.

(04-20-2016 10:54 AM)RodShaw2 Wrote:  

(04-20-2016 10:48 AM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  Based on those videos, I didn't get the impression that Starr was Petey 2.0 at all. I thought I saw a much broader palette of skills.

Yeah , a better version of Petey, the next edition 2.0, and maybe what Petey could have developed into with 4 years under Forbes.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on that. I see Starr as being closer to a smaller version of Tirade (but with better distribution skills) than an improved version of Petey.

Not sure they fit needs but wow, Walters and Batemon are a high scoring duo, like 40 combined. Not sure we would have enough basketballs playing time next year. Might have to do Blue Squad Gold Squad, like Kentucky did year before last.

(04-20-2016 10:48 AM)posterformerlyknownasthedoctor Wrote:  Well, you're right about Wilson - but I was thinking of him more in terms of 'restored' minutes. Not to mention Bello better fit the staunch defender's role better than Wilson - by far. I'm not gonna take the time to research it, but are you saying Bello's PT after AJ got hurt stayed about the same? That seems counter-intuitive to me, but I know you usually do your research.

I did a little research on February 25 and posted the results. As of then Bello's game had taken a big uptic in production following A.J.'s injury, but he was only playing a minute or so more. He was taking a bigger role in the game, but doing it in essentially the same minutes. Lester and Desonta saw a bigger increase in playing time. A.J. being a swing man, you could really go different ways to take up the minutes. Here's what I said then:

“You can’t really look at it as if Deuce was replacing A.J.. Deuce was getting about 21 minutes before A.J. was injured, and has been getting about 22.2 minutes since.

No one person has replaced A.J., although minutes going to Desonta (about 6 more minutes) and Lester Wilson (more than that) have increased more than anyone.

Deuce has indeed picked up his game, mostly by becoming more efficient – increasing shooting percentage from about .400 to .509 in conference, 3 pt percentage from about .230 to .371, and reducing turnovers. But others have improved, too. As I have pointed out elsewhere, the Bucs rebounding margin has actually improved significantly after A.J.'s injury. But in my opinion it would likely be even better with A.J..

Deuce would have been getting 90% of his minutes even if A.J. were healthy.

I do think that it makes sense to say that losing A.J. has cost us something in both defense and rebounding, to say nothing of the loss in fire and enthusiasm.”
http://csnbbs.com/thread-771359-post-13038289.html#pid13038289
at post #23.

Thank you. After posting that, I sort of remembered someone (probably you) who had actually checked that out. Point taken, but......(see below).
Did you by any chance update the PT stats for the rest of the season after Feb. 25? (I'm not asking you to, just wondering if there might have been a further up-tick in Bello's time the last 5-7 games.)
[I just tried to look at those numbers roughly, but get error messages from the etsubucs site for individual stats.]

(Well, I just now went back game-by-game, beginning with the game on the 25th, and Bello's reported PTs, were, consecutively: 27, 21, 29, 26, 25, 28. Which I think shows vastly increased playing time at the end of the year.)

And although it may have come across that way, I wasn't trying to insinuate that Bello was *specifically* replacing AJ - only that (as I see it) he was best suited to take up the defensive slack from AJ's absence. Which I think is still true - especially if you think about the late-game stuff Bello was coming up with. He was/is much more of a defensive 'creator', whereas Desonta and Wilson are much more offensive weapons (not to diss Desonta's decency in that department).
And I still think of Wilson's minutes as more being "restored" to what they used to be.

But my overall thought was that I hope AJ gets plenty of time to shine, and has a healthy, great, senior season. All of this kind of talk at this point in time is pure speculation. It'll be a whole new equation for Forbes to solve beginning in the fall.

Great conversation, gents.

Regarding the possibility that a little used freshman might develop into something special, here's a comparison between the first years of Tommy Hubbard, Greg Hamlin and Toriano Stokes.

Toriano Stokes FR.: 11 games; 4.3 minutes; 0.8 ppg, 1.0 rebounds, 0.6 blocks
Tommy Hubbard FR: 24 games; 4.9 minutes; 0.6 ppg, 1.2 rebounds, 0.1 blocks
Greg Hamlin JUCO JR: 21 games; 9.4 minutes; 2.9 ppg, 1.9 rebounds, 0.8 blocks

None of them got to show much their first year on the team. But Hubbard developed into an excellent player, and Hamlin into a valuable one. Toriano had the added handicap of only a couple of year’s experience of organized ball. There’s no guarantee he develops as well as those two. But Forbes seems to think he will.

Good point; in fact, I was just thinking about Hubbard in that regard just a couple of days ago. Certainly virtually nobody could see 'that' coming. On the other hand, several (myself included) knew fairly quickly that Hamlin could at least be a defensive force - and we discussed that. So.....................remains to be seen.

Forbes (via JC Press): "“Toriano epitomizes the word student-athlete,” ETSU coach Steve Forbes said. “He excels on the court and in the classroom. On the floor, his four-year potential is off the charts, and we can’t wait to get him on campus next week.”
"Meanwhile, Stokes will immediately add size and athleticism to the Bucs' front court. He averaged 16 points, 14 rebounds and four blocks a game last season for Memphis Westwood High School.
He reportedly had a dunk in every game and had six in one.
Stokes was a finalist for the Memphis Commercial Appeal newspaper's Scholar-Athlete of the Year Award. He was listed as the 12th-best recruit coming out of Memphis."

Forbes got him for nothing. FOUR YEAR POTENTIAL, potential being the main word. I definitely hope Stokes makes it, only time will tell.

Blackbart & I have been discussing Devontavius Payne's promise as a basketball player. Blackbart compared, accurately I think, Devontavius Payne to another Payne - Cameron Payne, the southpaw, NBA guard and mid-major alum' (Murray State). Check out their resemblance.

Cameron Payne:






Devontavius Payne: