Figure we can start this about now. Lets start with our bold predictions.

Mine is this. The Mets will be a .500 team at best. I'd love to be really bold and say they finish 3rd, but not sure if the Marlins can beat them.

others....
Harper has another huge year for the Nats.
Dodgers pitching falls apart and they finish 3rd
Even year- another Title for the Giants....
White Sox fall apart after the LaRoche situation.

Astros to the World Series. They would have been there last year if the Royals didn't have 9 lives.

(03-21-2016 11:59 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Astros to the World Series. They would have been there last year if the Royals didn't have 9 lives.

I wouldn't be shocked. only thing is sometimes a young team like that can regress in the year after they make a huge move like they did.......

(03-21-2016 11:59 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Astros to the World Series. They would have been there last year if the Royals didn't have 9 lives.

not exactly going out on a limb. Stever's Mets prediction...now that's bold

(03-21-2016 10:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Figure we can start this about now. Lets start with our bold predictions.

Mine is this. The Mets will be a .500 team at best. I'd love to be really bold and say they finish 3rd, but not sure if the Marlins can beat them.

others....
Harper has another huge year for the Nats.
Dodgers pitching falls apart and they finish 3rd
Even year- another Title for the Giants....
White Sox fall apart after the LaRoche situation.

That's not a prediction!

These aren't very bold...
Scioscia will be fired before the season is over.
Cubs will start slowly - people will panic - but they'll recover in plenty of time to win the NL Central going away.
Marlins will contend in NL East, Dee Gordon will excel again, and Mattingly will get huge praise. Dodgers fans will lose their @#$%.

Cubs get crushed under the weight of World Series expectations and underachieve just like last season's Washington Nationals. Cardinals again take NL Central crown.

Michael Pineda finishes in the top 3 of AL Cy Young voting

Another one for the 'where have we heard this before' file: Victor Martinez's hamstring strain might land him on the DL for opening day. When asked if there was any possibility Martinez wouldn't be ready to start the season, Ausmus replied with the douchiest of douchebag answers:
"Is there any possibility?," Ausmus said, then flipped the sarcasm switch on. "Of course there is. There's a possibility that everyone in camp might not be ready. (But) I wouldn't say it's trending that way."

Even year so Giants win world series. Just cancel the season.

Ethier out 10-14 weeks with a fractured tibia, Bolsinger will not make his 1st start of the season and apparently Grandal has forearm discomfort that is "concerning." Giants and Dbacks need to be hot out of the gate in order to take advantage of the Dodgers injuries.

(03-22-2016 06:23 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Ethier out 10-14 weeks with a fractured tibia, Bolsinger will not make his 1st start of the season and apparently Grandal has forearm discomfort that is "concerning." Giants and Dbacks need to be hot out of the gate in order to take advantage of the Dodgers injuries.

Ethier and Bolsinger - worrisome but not disastrous. It's testing Dodgers depth but not straining it. Zach Lee will probably replace Bolsinger but there are other candidates. Ethier, as good as he was last year and this spring, it was in a platoon role. He basically doesn't (because he can't) hit against left handers. So it'll be Crawford and Van Slyke platooning in left, but Trayce Thompson (brother of Klay Thompson!) is also available. I'm worried about Grandal but even there the Dodgers have decent depth, with Ellis and Barnes.

I've said before the Dodgers' season hinges on Puig and Pederson, and I still think that's still the case. But there is one other question mark and that's Kazmir. He doesn't have to be a dominant #2 but he has to be reliable. That's still to be determined...

Amazingly enough, I'm feeling pretty good about the Dodgers bullpen. We gripe about the starters not showing up in the playoffs but a huge part of that was Mattingly's (justifiable) inability to trust his relievers, other than closer. Bullpen's been a problem for a while now but here's another moderately bold prediction: Chris Hatcher, Joe Blanton, and Louis Coleman will be lights out. With Jansen already one of the best closers in the NL, Dodgers will be among NL leaders in relief stats.

Prediction most likely to come true: I'll get drunk at a Rangers game (ok, maybe in the parking lot before the game)

Prediction least likely to come true: Rangers win the World Series

one big thing for the Giants right now is Span being healthy. He stole another base yesterday, meaning his legs must be in decent shape. Again, I have no doubt he'll get hurt at some point, but when healthy he's a huge upgrade over what we had in CF last season. A lineup of Span, Panik, Duffy, Posey, Belt, Pence, Crawford, Pitcher, Pagan is just relentless. It doesn't have a Harper, Votto or Goldschmidt, but other than Posey it has a bunch of your team's second and third best hitters.

I'm also curious to see what a healthy Pagan does. I know a lot of fans are bullish because he's actually healthy and stealing bases, but I'd be shocked if he put up an OPS+ above 100. If I had to predict each guy's OPS+ (assuming good health), it'd look something like this:
Span 113
Panik 120
Duffy 118
Posey 135
Belt 132
Pence 120
Crawford 112
Pagan 94

I don't think any of those numbers are unrealistic. There's no real improvement, as everyone is performing somewhere around what they did last year. I also don't see any major candidates for regression. I suppose you could convince me Duffy is gonna regress to 105, but you could also convince me that he could put up a 120-125. Fact is, when a player is healthy, he's most likely gonna perform at his normal rate.

The problem as we've said with the Giants is playing time for both Posey and Belt. Posey is going to play 50 games at 1st. So would only have prime lineup for maybe 100 games.

Also with the Giants you have a lot of injury questions. Not just Span but Panik and Pence both missed big slices of games last year. Also Posey is at that age where injuries for catchers start to happen quite a bit. His #1 comp right now for batters thru 28- Victor Martinez.

(03-28-2016 01:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The problem as we've said with the Giants is playing time for both Posey and Belt. Posey is going to play 50 games at 1st. So would only have prime lineup for maybe 100 games.

Also with the Giants you have a lot of injury questions. Not just Span but Panik and Pence both missed big slices of games last year. Also Posey is at that age where injuries for catchers start to happen quite a bit. His #1 comp right now for batters thru 28- Victor Martinez.

Belt is gonna play some LF, so I'm not really worried. I mean having too many good hitters is hardly a problem.

Panik is fine. Turns out his back injury wasn't the beginning of a chronic problem, but rather a fracture as the result of a hard slide against him. The Giants never said anything because they didn't want to lose any leverage in potential trades. So he's as healthy as anyone. As for Pence I definitely agree. The first injury last year was the result of a particular nasty HBP, but the oblique injury was not. Bochy definitely needs to give him some days off this season. Regarding Belt, despite the concussion, and Posey playing more 1B than ever, he still managed to play 137 games.

And yeah Posey is another one who could definitely have some injuries. But guess who else is a 28 year old catcher: Wilson Ramos. Yet the only thing you seem to say about him is how Lasik all but guarantees a rebound from awful hitter, to solid one. I'm not gonna start getting too worried about injuries for guys who don't have injury histories. Could they get hurt? Of course, but if they don't have a history of it, it's kinda pointless to predict it. I mean Kershaw is a pitcher, the most injury prone type of player. If he gets hurt the Dodgers are done. But I'm not gonna predict a Kershaw injury. Kazmir has had an injury history and already has an abdominal issue, but I'm not gonna predict additional injuries for him. Gonzalez and Turner are Pence's age, but I'm not gonna factor in injuries for players who haven't shown a propensity to get hurt.

The thing with Belt though- a lot of those games were out of necessity with the OF situation. The OF is better this year than it was so he might not get those games there..... The thing is, you would get Susac in there in place of someone on the list.

Also Posey vs Ramos. Posey has caught 576 games- 4898 innings Ramos 443 games- 3881 innings. So about 1000 fewer innings. That adds up. And the thing with both of them- if Posey goes down, there goes the Giants best hitter. Definitely not so with the Nats and Ramos.

(03-28-2016 03:35 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing with Belt though- a lot of those games were out of necessity with the OF situation. The OF is better this year than it was so he might not get those games there..... The thing is, you would get Susac in there in place of someone on the list.

Also Posey vs Ramos. Posey has caught 576 games- 4898 innings Ramos 443 games- 3881 innings. So about 1000 fewer innings. That adds up. And the thing with both of them- if Posey goes down, there goes the Giants best hitter. Definitely not so with the Nats and Ramos.

i'm just making a point, this isn't a pissing contest. We all know the only players who are gonna get injured are non-Nats. My whole point was I'm excited for what I think will be a very good Giants lineup

Oh I'm fully expecting Zimmerman and Werth to go down at some point this year. If we can get 120 games out of both, I'm thrilled. And won't be shocked if Ramos is hurt at some point as well- that's what happens to catchers as they approach 30. I think the big one for the nats is Rendon. Hopefully last year was just a one year type of thing.