Conference RPI
Top 10 Conferences (Baseball) Rating Pecentage Index **Live - March 16, 2016
CUSA #4 out of 32 Conferences

1) ACC 0.5772 1 138 - 44 0.7582
2) SEC 0.5732 2 189 - 49 0.7941
3) Pac 12 0.5541 3 95 - 63 0.6013
4) Conference USA 0.5409 4 117 - 75 0.6094
5) American Athletic 0.5354 5 72 - 59 0.5496
6) West Coast 0.5326 6 85 - 78 0.5215
7) Big West 0.5321 7 85 - 58 0.5944
8) Big 12 0.5257 8 81 - 61 0.5704
9) Horizon League 0.5205 9 39 - 65 0.3750
10) Big Ten 0.5198 10 90 - 91 0.4972

Lomk.... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/conferencerpi

Top 80 Teams RPI (7 CUSA teams Top 80)
14) Southern Miss 0-0 0.000 - 14-4 0.778
24) Old Dominion 0-0 0.000 - 12-4 0.750
41) Rice 0-0 0.000 - 8-8 0.500
44) Western Kentucky 0-0 0.000 - 11-5 0.688
55) Florida Atlantic 0-0 0.000 - 13-2 0.867
59) UTSA 0-0 0.000 - 9-7 0.562
78) Louisiana Tech 0-0 0.000 - 8-4 0.667

Link.... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/rpi

CUSA Only Link ... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/con...erence-USA

Coaches Poll
20) Florida Atlantic 13-2
43) Southern Miss 14-4

CBN Poll
15) Florida Atlantic 13-2

Link,,,, http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/polls

If only basketball was this damn good

Baseball is tearing it up this season after what I had thought was a down year last season...

What's the maximum number of potential teams we could send to regionals this year? If Rice gets their stuff together I think we could have 7, 8, maybe 9 total. That'd be insane!

I think the most any single conference has ever sent to regionals is 6... (But I'm not sure). I think the PAC has done it a couple of times and the ACC might have done it once or twice.

I know it's still early but it will be difficult for us to gain any ground on these 3 conferences.

(03-16-2016 08:02 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  I think the most any single conference has ever sent to regionals is 6... (But I'm not sure). I think the PAC has done it a couple of times and the ACC might have done it once or twice.

Pretty sure the SEC has sent 8-10 teams several times as I remember watching their conference tourney at times and the announcers saying that even a team or 2 that didn't qualify for it would still most likely make a regional

I am pretty sure the SEC has sent 10 teams to regionals before, possibly more.

(03-16-2016 07:59 AM)TTT Wrote:  What's the maximum number of potential teams we could send to regionals this year? If Rice gets their stuff together I think we could have 7, 8, maybe 9 total. That'd be insane!

Probably 4, but that's just my opinion.

(03-16-2016 09:15 AM)EaglehasLanded Wrote:  I am pretty sure the SEC has sent 10 teams to regionals before, possibly more.

They are tied with others for having the most teams in a CWS (4). Only thing I could find was in 2004 they sent 9.

(03-16-2016 08:02 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  I think the most any single conference has ever sent to regionals is 6... (But I'm not sure). I think the PAC has done it a couple of times and the ACC might have done it once or twice.

The last three seasons, the SEC and ACC have placed the following number in the field of 64 (SEC/ACC): 7/7 (2015); 10/7 (2014); 9/8 (2013).

(03-16-2016 02:30 AM)Ramsay7884 Wrote:  If only basketball was this damn good

Isn't it amazing how winning 60% of your non-conference games helps the RPI. This will compound for us once we get into conference play.

BTW, no way to know how this will result in NCAA tournament teams. If your two best RPI teams FAU and USM, for example, don't perform well in conference then it could impact the at large pool. Good teams need to stay good through the whole season. Otherwise, it makes it harder on the committee.

(03-16-2016 10:37 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(03-16-2016 02:30 AM)Ramsay7884 Wrote:  If only basketball was this damn good

Isn't it amazing how winning 60% of your non-conference games helps the RPI. This will compound for us once we get into conference play.

BTW, no way to know how this will result in NCAA tournament teams. If your two best RPI teams FAU and USM, for example, don't perform well in conference then it could impact the at large pool. Good teams need to stay good through the whole season. Otherwise, it makes it harder on the committee.

In baseball, what has worked in our favor is the fact that "as a conference" we have OOC wins against quality opponents, and that has elevated the RPI of the teams at the top. This is the formula the P5 schools have monopolized in basketball, football and baseball, primarily because of schools already in the conference. The RPI of P5's are already elevated because of the league and that perpetuates the perception and allows them to have the separation from G5 conferences. For baseball when conference play starts we should be able to maintain a really nice overall conference placement among all the conferences. However, because at the bottom of the league there is a definitive separation in the RPI, it will hurt teams at the top if they are not able to continue to win.

We may get lucky and see 4 or 5 teams in the NCAA baseball field. If we have 6 that will be a huge accomplishment for the league and something we can build on for the future.

Now, in reference to basketball we will need to follow this playbook to help raise our perception and RPI. We do not have to reinvent the wheel. We know what we have to do to reach a new level for basketball, and we must schedule up and win to put us in a position to recruit at a higher level. With more talent each school will be in a position to schedule the teams that will impact our individual RPI and we must WIN the big games. This could potentially elevate CUSA to move up into the 7-9 RPI range as a conference.

This can happen in basketball and we will need to duplicate and use this formula for football. It is the proverbial question “What came first the chicken or the egg”. It will be difficult to recruit the level of players we need to achieve this goal, but if we raise our visibility because of success the recruits will come. This will have a huge impact on recruiting and potentially give us more TV exposure. It is the only way we will see a snowball effect that will move us into a position for more exposure and potential increase in revenue in the future. It is the formula we must implicate that will move the needle for recruits and it starts there.

I have proven this a fallacy and your assessment as inaccurate Old Timer.

We rank fourth as a conference because we are in a virtual tie for the third and fourth highest winning percentage. If we had played nothing but losing teams we would still be ranked fourth as a league.

We do have some really outstanding quality of wins so far as a league and that will certainly help the better programs earn an at large bid. These two go hand in hand. We must have a high win percentage as a league and we must have some quality wins among the upper half of the teams in the league.

As I explained back in December with basketball, it would be close as whether we would have two top 100 teams at the end of the season. And I was dead on with that. I believe MT was 96 when the conference tournament started.

As for baseball it's a little more difficult to forecast because we continue to play non-conf games through the whole year, but assuming the entire league doesn't go into the tank in mid week games I can already tell you what's going to happen. Regardless of SOS RPI's for everyone in the top half of the league are going to go up, because of one simple reason. When we start conference play our opponents in league play and their opponents (75% of the SOS component) will have winning records for the most part. The opponents opponents part of our SOS (25%) will be a huge benefit because almost no one in the league has a losing record. Therefore, RPI's will climb.

We will have either five or six in the top 50 (which means lots of top 50 games for the committee to consider -- good news) and we will have four or five more in the top 100 and probably only two but no more than three outside the top 100. A lot of variables depending on who does what in conference play and the mid week games, but it will be in this neighborhood.

Project four NCAA tournament teams. One of us will probably be right around 40 and be left out in favor of an eighth or ninth place SEC team.

Surprised USM isn't ranked higher than they are so far with that record.

(03-16-2016 12:35 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  I have proven this a fallacy and your assessment as inaccurate Old Timer. We rank fourth as a conference because we are in a virtual tie for the third and fourth highest winning percentage. If we had played nothing but losing teams we would still be ranked fourth as a league.

We do have some really outstanding quality of wins so far as a league and that will certainly help the better programs earn an at large bid. These two go hand in hand. We must have a high win percentage as a league and we must have some quality wins among the upper half of the teams in the league.

As I explained back in December with basketball, it would be close as whether we would have two top 100 teams at the end of the season. And I was dead on with that. I believe MT was 96 when the conference tournament started.

As for baseball it's a little more difficult to forecast because we continue to play non-conf games through the whole year, but assuming the entire league doesn't go into the tank in mid week games I can already tell you what's going to happen. Regardless of SOS RPI's for everyone in the top half of the league are going to go up, because of one simple reason. When we start conference play our opponents in league play and their opponents (75% of the SOS component) will have winning records for the most part. The opponents opponents part of our SOS (25%) will be a huge benefit because almost no one in the league has a losing record. Therefore, RPI's will climb.

We will have either five or six in the top 50 (which means lots of top 50 games for the committee to consider -- good news) and we will have four or five more in the top 100 and probably only two but no more than three outside the top 100. A lot of variables depending on who does what in conference play and the mid week games, but it will be in this neighborhood.

Project four NCAA tournament teams. One of us will probably be right around 40 and be left out in favor of an eighth or ninth place SEC team.

You need to look no further than the Sun Belt to prove you are incorrect. Georgia Southern is tied at the top of the Sun Belt with the highest winning percentage, yet their RPI is 124. If you use a direct comparison with South Alabama, they have an RPI of 21. They have Identical records 12-5, both winning percentages are 0.706, (identical). If we use your logic this is impossible. The fact is Georgia Southern has won the same number, 12 wins against teams with LOW RPI’s It is not difficult to see the facts, you must win against quality opponents and you will reap the rewards

RPI 124 Georgia Southern 12-5 Win % 0.706
RPI 21 South Alabama 12-5 Win % 0.706



Link Georgia Southern / South Alabama ...... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/con...e/Sun-Belt

Link Geo South... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/sch...a-Southern

Link South Alab ..... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/sch...th-Alabama

(03-16-2016 12:35 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  I have proven this a fallacy and your assessment as inaccurate Old Timer.

We rank fourth as a conference because we are in a virtual tie for the third and fourth highest winning percentage. If we had played nothing but losing teams we would still be ranked fourth as a league.

Fallacy...?

How do you explain the fact that the AAC is ranked 5th in RPI yet there are 5 conferences all with higher winning percentages. They should be no higher than 11th using your logic. A second example is the West Coast Conference currently ranked 6th, yet 6 conference have higher winning percentages,. They should be no higher than 12th according to you.

7) Big West 0.5321 7 85 - 58 0.5944
8) Big 12 0.5256 8 81 - 61 0.5704
12) Sun Belt 0.5077 12 83 - 68 0.5497
15) Missouri Valley 0.5011 15 70 - 52 0.5738
19) Big South 0.4848 19 101 - 83 0.5489
5) American Athletic 0.5355 5 72 - 59 0.5496


7) Big West 0.5321 7 85 - 58 0.5944
8) Big 12 0.5256 8 81 - 61 0.5704
11) Southland 0.5078 11 91 - 79 0.5353
12) Sun Belt 0.5077 12 83 - 68 0.5497
15) Missouri Valley 0.5011 15 70 - 52 0.5738
19) Big South 0.4848 19 101 - 83 0.5489
6) West Coast 0.5326 6 85 - 78 0.5215

Reality is any example clearly proves that quality wins against teams with higher PRI's have a larger influence on the overall RPI and the perception of the team and the conference..

Your claim that I have proven this, well it has a few holes.

Conference RPI Link... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/conferencerpi

(03-16-2016 10:37 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(03-16-2016 02:30 AM)Ramsay7884 Wrote:  If only basketball was this damn good

Isn't it amazing how winning 60% of your non-conference games helps the RPI. This will compound for us once we get into conference play.

BTW, no way to know how this will result in NCAA tournament teams. If your two best RPI teams FAU and USM, for example, don't perform well in conference then it could impact the at large pool. Good teams need to stay good through the whole season. Otherwise, it makes it harder on the committee.

Very true. It is becoming clear that the committee values weekend series performance, particularly in conference, more than weekday games (rightfully so). If we could have traded one of our Ole Miss wins for a win over FAU or Rice, we might have been a regional team.

I will say, though, that a team's RPI rating for baseball plays a far greater role than it does for basketball. This is definitely a good start to having some teams in position for Regional bids.

Also consider that our problem last year was simply that NO ONE did particularly well outside of conference play. You saw Rice with a sub-.500 OOC record as the top team, USM at #3 with a 17-9 record but some really bad OOC losses, and MTSU at #4 with a sub-500 OOC record thanks to their almost comical weekday game jinx.

So, this is a step in the right direction. I'm really hoping that FAU or (of course) USM is for real this year and can top Rice. It doesn't look good for the conference when Rice struggles against their (albeit brutal) OOC schedule and then steamrolls through the conference.

eaglenjxn.. I agree with much of what you said. We need to stop shitting the bed in our non conference schedule... Games like last night where we are winning in the 8th inning and then melt... Smh

However, we are currently 3-5 against the RPI top 50. We are 5-3 outside the top 50, with the lowest RPI team we have played being Sam Houston, a team that usually rolls through the Southland. Keep in mind that you don't have to be much above .500 against the top 50 to challenge for a hosting spot. I think our record is more of a consequence of playing the #2 SOS in the country than being a crap team. This weekend, we play 9-7 UTSA. If we struggle against them, perhaps we are a middle of the pack team. If we blitz them, then I think our record is a consequence of SOS.

Also, last year we weren't under .500 in the OOC. We had a .565 winning percentage in OOC.

(03-16-2016 09:29 AM)eagle04 Wrote:  

(03-16-2016 09:15 AM)EaglehasLanded Wrote:  I am pretty sure the SEC has sent 10 teams to regionals before, possibly more.

They are tied with others for having the most teams in a CWS (4). Only thing I could find was in 2004 they sent 9.

Sent 10 two years ago.