Just win baby!

(03-16-2016 04:22 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  eaglenjxn.. I agree with much of what you said. We need to stop shitting the bed in our non conference schedule... Games like last night where we are winning in the 8th inning and then melt... Smh

However, we are currently 3-5 against the RPI top 50. We are 5-3 outside the top 50, with the lowest RPI team we have played being Sam Houston, a team that usually rolls through the Southland. Keep in mind that you don't have to be much above .500 against the top 50 to challenge for a hosting spot. I think our record is more of a consequence of playing the #2 SOS in the country than being a crap team. This weekend, we play 9-7 UTSA. If we struggle against them, perhaps we are a middle of the pack team. If we blitz them, then I think our record is a consequence of SOS.

Also, last year we weren't under .500 in the OOC. We had a .565 winning percentage in OOC.

I was doing a very quick scan off the Nolan site that included regional games (which put ya'll at 15-14). Either way, it wasn't a great performance by your standards and you were still dominant in league play.

I'm not really even commenting on Rice here. It isn't Rice's fault for still being better than the rest of the conference in down years.

Making my context a bit more clear: In comparing C-USA to other conferences, it doesn't look good for us when our champion goes 22-8 and is barely above .500 OOC (no matter how tough the schedule was).

I fully expect that compared to the rest of the conference this year, Rice is probably going to be the best team. Until proven otherwise, I have no reason to think you guys won't win your usual 20+ games in conference. That I can confidently predict Rice to perform that well after a pretty rough OOC performance is not a good thing for the conference.

This is out of respect for Rice. All I'm saying is that we will know the conference is actually improving when Rice doesn't still dominate in their "down" years.

I agree with all that you said!

As I have commented on the Rice board, given Rice's OOC performance so far, a good C-USA is advantageous for us assuming we can hold our own as it will offer more opportunities for good wins. Last year, FAU was the only other team in the top 50.

Having the 4th rated conference 4 weeks into the season is huge. With conference play coming up, RPI will stay relatively high. And that will play big at selection time. We should 3-5 teams in based off performance to date. Rice, USM, and FAU all have great shots. ODU, WKU, and UTSA all have chance if they can win some conf series and continue doing well out of conference.

Very happy to see CUSA doing so well in baseball.

(03-16-2016 01:33 PM)ODU Oldtimer Wrote:  

(03-16-2016 12:35 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  I have proven this a fallacy and your assessment as inaccurate Old Timer. We rank fourth as a conference because we are in a virtual tie for the third and fourth highest winning percentage. If we had played nothing but losing teams we would still be ranked fourth as a league.

We do have some really outstanding quality of wins so far as a league and that will certainly help the better programs earn an at large bid. These two go hand in hand. We must have a high win percentage as a league and we must have some quality wins among the upper half of the teams in the league.

As I explained back in December with basketball, it would be close as whether we would have two top 100 teams at the end of the season. And I was dead on with that. I believe MT was 96 when the conference tournament started.

As for baseball it's a little more difficult to forecast because we continue to play non-conf games through the whole year, but assuming the entire league doesn't go into the tank in mid week games I can already tell you what's going to happen. Regardless of SOS RPI's for everyone in the top half of the league are going to go up, because of one simple reason. When we start conference play our opponents in league play and their opponents (75% of the SOS component) will have winning records for the most part. The opponents opponents part of our SOS (25%) will be a huge benefit because almost no one in the league has a losing record. Therefore, RPI's will climb.

We will have either five or six in the top 50 (which means lots of top 50 games for the committee to consider -- good news) and we will have four or five more in the top 100 and probably only two but no more than three outside the top 100. A lot of variables depending on who does what in conference play and the mid week games, but it will be in this neighborhood.

Project four NCAA tournament teams. One of us will probably be right around 40 and be left out in favor of an eighth or ninth place SEC team.

You need to look no further than the Sun Belt to prove you are incorrect. Georgia Southern is tied at the top of the Sun Belt with the highest winning percentage, yet their RPI is 124. If you use a direct comparison with South Alabama, they have an RPI of 21. They have Identical records 12-5, both winning percentages are 0.706, (identical). If we use your logic this is impossible. The fact is Georgia Southern has won the same number, 12 wins against teams with LOW RPI’s It is not difficult to see the facts, you must win against quality opponents and you will reap the rewards

RPI 124 Georgia Southern 12-5 Win % 0.706
RPI 21 South Alabama 12-5 Win % 0.706



Link Georgia Southern / South Alabama ...... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/con...e/Sun-Belt

Link Geo South... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/sch...a-Southern

Link South Alab ..... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/sch...th-Alabama

Duh. You think? Using a comparison between individual teams who have only played a handful of games vs. the cumulative records of entire conferences at the end of a season is like comparing apples to pine nuts.

Peer deeper into what I'm saying. If you want more quality opponents get them from conference play. How do you get them from conference play? I have explained this ad naseum. SOS is derived solely and only from the win percentage of the teams you play and the teams they played. The higher win percentage a conference has as whole the higher the SOS will be by all the teams within that conference.

(03-16-2016 02:20 PM)ODU Oldtimer Wrote:  

(03-16-2016 12:35 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  I have proven this a fallacy and your assessment as inaccurate Old Timer.

We rank fourth as a conference because we are in a virtual tie for the third and fourth highest winning percentage. If we had played nothing but losing teams we would still be ranked fourth as a league.

Fallacy...?

How do you explain the fact that the AAC is ranked 5th in RPI yet there are 5 conferences all with higher winning percentages. They should be no higher than 11th using your logic. A second example is the West Coast Conference currently ranked 6th, yet 6 conference have higher winning percentages,. They should be no higher than 12th according to you.

7) Big West 0.5321 7 85 - 58 0.5944
8) Big 12 0.5256 8 81 - 61 0.5704
12) Sun Belt 0.5077 12 83 - 68 0.5497
15) Missouri Valley 0.5011 15 70 - 52 0.5738
19) Big South 0.4848 19 101 - 83 0.5489
5) American Athletic 0.5355 5 72 - 59 0.5496


7) Big West 0.5321 7 85 - 58 0.5944
8) Big 12 0.5256 8 81 - 61 0.5704
11) Southland 0.5078 11 91 - 79 0.5353
12) Sun Belt 0.5077 12 83 - 68 0.5497
15) Missouri Valley 0.5011 15 70 - 52 0.5738
19) Big South 0.4848 19 101 - 83 0.5489
6) West Coast 0.5326 6 85 - 78 0.5215

Reality is any example clearly proves that quality wins against teams with higher PRI's have a larger influence on the overall RPI and the perception of the team and the conference..

Your claim that I have proven this, well it has a few holes.

Conference RPI Link... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/conferencerpi

Allow me to first tackle the statements highlighted above. Right now when there is only a fourth of the total data that we will have at the end of the season. Sure, there is an effect there. Early on RPI favors teams and conferences that a) have fewer teams and b) haven't played as many games (usually northern teams because of weather). Take Central Connecticut State for example They've only played 12 games and are 45 with a 5-7 record and only three of those against top 50 (all losses). They were #2 in RPI at one point this season. Simply not enough data yet to fully make assessments on individual team RPIs but we are starting to gain a better picture on the conference RPI, which is what I stated earlier.

Which leads me to the point about how can the AAC be 5th with five other conferences ahead of them in win percentage? And to that I say patience grasshopper. Conference play hasn't even started yet. The answer to your question is not enough games have been played at this point. What I have stated is about where you are at the end of the year not about where you are in March. Baseball isn't quite as uniform as basketball when it comes to rank and win pct primarily because of the variance in the number of members in a given conference have wider ranges than they do in basketball. As such one conference can have over 300 non-conference games whereas another conference may have less than 200. This can effect the correlation between win percentage and conference ranking in baseball moreso than in basketball. Nevertheless, the correlation between the two even in baseball is almost never more than one standard deviation. If you can find one looking back at former years I will bet you a cold beverage it is a one-off and not typical.

I hope this answers your question. I will be happy to revisit this with you again at the end of the season.

Every achievement improves perception. Great to see this conference holding its own in baseball.

I don't know how good they area, but Charlotte beat Wake Forest tonight.

USM also has some pretty big (potentially) RPI midweek games the rest of the year. Ole Miss (x2) Tulane (x2) MSU (x1) UL-Lafayette (x1).

Only the ULL game is in Hattiesburg. In other words, it's only going to get tougher.

Keep winning, and things will take care of themselves.

Speaking of winning, if everyone plays like they're capable of through the rest of the season I don't see why it wouldn't be possible for Rice, FAU, USM, and ODU if they keep it going making it to the post season.

Would be a good look for the conference.

(03-16-2016 06:18 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  As I have commented on the Rice board, given Rice's OOC performance so far, a good C-USA is advantageous for us assuming we can hold our own as it will offer more opportunities for good wins. Last year, FAU was the only other team in the top 50.

I think i have taken notice to somthing concerning rice baseball. For some reason we seem to have no problem hosting the cusa tourney for what looks like on our campus or in biloxi for several years.

It must be nice to be in a position that your not worried about a conf tourney. Your worried about hosting regionals. I will switch places anytime.

(03-16-2016 10:21 PM)southernmiss4ever Wrote:  USM also has some pretty big (potentially) RPI midweek games the rest of the year. Ole Miss (x2) Tulane (x2) MSU (x1) UL-Lafayette (x1).

Only the ULL game is in Hattiesburg. In other words, it's only going to get tougher.

Keep winning, and things will take care of themselves.

Speaking of winning, if everyone plays like they're capable of through the rest of the season I don't see why it wouldn't be possible for Rice, FAU, USM, and ODU if they keep it going making it to the post season.

Would be a good look for the conference.

These games will be big but I would REALLY like to take those two from OM. They have a good squad this year but those interstate games are always a toss up. As far as state goes, those jackwagons are the most jekyll and hyde team. They swept #10 ranked Oregon last weekend and they take losses from Eastern Kentucky and Oral Roberts this week.

(03-17-2016 09:14 AM)eagle04 Wrote:  

(03-16-2016 10:21 PM)southernmiss4ever Wrote:  USM also has some pretty big (potentially) RPI midweek games the rest of the year. Ole Miss (x2) Tulane (x2) MSU (x1) UL-Lafayette (x1).

Only the ULL game is in Hattiesburg. In other words, it's only going to get tougher.

Keep winning, and things will take care of themselves.

Speaking of winning, if everyone plays like they're capable of through the rest of the season I don't see why it wouldn't be possible for Rice, FAU, USM, and ODU if they keep it going making it to the post season.

Would be a good look for the conference.

These games will be big but I would REALLY like to take those two from OM. They have a good squad this year but those interstate games are always a toss up. As far as state goes, those jackwagons are the most jekyll and hyde team. They swept #10 ranked Oregon last weekend and they take losses from Eastern Kentucky and Oral Roberts this week.

Don't you know that teams like Miss St lose midweek games because the other team ALWAYS throws their ace and it doesn't mean anything to Miss St...funny thing though is how that "ace" pitcher is always able to come back on 1 or 2 days rest and throw the Friday night game for his respective team.

(03-17-2016 09:26 AM)usm99 Wrote:  

(03-17-2016 09:14 AM)eagle04 Wrote:  

(03-16-2016 10:21 PM)southernmiss4ever Wrote:  USM also has some pretty big (potentially) RPI midweek games the rest of the year. Ole Miss (x2) Tulane (x2) MSU (x1) UL-Lafayette (x1).

Only the ULL game is in Hattiesburg. In other words, it's only going to get tougher.

Keep winning, and things will take care of themselves.

Speaking of winning, if everyone plays like they're capable of through the rest of the season I don't see why it wouldn't be possible for Rice, FAU, USM, and ODU if they keep it going making it to the post season.

Would be a good look for the conference.

These games will be big but I would REALLY like to take those two from OM. They have a good squad this year but those interstate games are always a toss up. As far as state goes, those jackwagons are the most jekyll and hyde team. They swept #10 ranked Oregon last weekend and they take losses from Eastern Kentucky and Oral Roberts this week.

Don't you know that teams like Miss St lose midweek games because the other team ALWAYS throws their ace and it doesn't mean anything to Miss St...funny thing though is how that "ace" pitcher is always able to come back on 1 or 2 days rest and throw the Friday night game for his respective team.

Oh, I've heard it all from their fans. I will say this, nothing is more enjoyable than walking out of Trustmark Park with their fans after taking it to one of those two.

(03-16-2016 04:22 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  eaglenjxn.. I agree with much of what you said. We need to stop shitting the bed in our non conference schedule... Games like last night where we are winning in the 8th inning and then melt... Smh

However, we are currently 3-5 against the RPI top 50. We are 5-3 outside the top 50, with the lowest RPI team we have played being Sam Houston, a team that usually rolls through the Southland. Keep in mind that you don't have to be much above .500 against the top 50 to challenge for a hosting spot. I think our record is more of a consequence of playing the #2 SOS in the country than being a crap team. This weekend, we play 9-7 UTSA. If we struggle against them, perhaps we are a middle of the pack team. If we blitz them, then I think our record is a consequence of SOS.

Also, last year we weren't under .500 in the OOC. We had a .565 winning percentage in OOC.

I don't think he was calling Rice a crap team. I think he was saying that when Rice struggles out of conference and then runs through C-USA, it gives the perception that if Rice can't compete with the top teams then the rest of the conference is crap. Then that is used as an excuse for not giving C-USA more bids or grading each team on its own accomplishments.

(03-17-2016 09:26 AM)usm99 Wrote:  

(03-17-2016 09:14 AM)eagle04 Wrote:  

(03-16-2016 10:21 PM)southernmiss4ever Wrote:  USM also has some pretty big (potentially) RPI midweek games the rest of the year. Ole Miss (x2) Tulane (x2) MSU (x1) UL-Lafayette (x1).

Only the ULL game is in Hattiesburg. In other words, it's only going to get tougher.

Keep winning, and things will take care of themselves.

Speaking of winning, if everyone plays like they're capable of through the rest of the season I don't see why it wouldn't be possible for Rice, FAU, USM, and ODU if they keep it going making it to the post season.

Would be a good look for the conference.

These games will be big but I would REALLY like to take those two from OM. They have a good squad this year but those interstate games are always a toss up. As far as state goes, those jackwagons are the most jekyll and hyde team. They swept #10 ranked Oregon last weekend and they take losses from Eastern Kentucky and Oral Roberts this week.

Don't you know that teams like Miss St lose midweek games because the other team ALWAYS throws their ace and it doesn't mean anything to Miss St...funny thing though is how that "ace" pitcher is always able to come back on 1 or 2 days rest and throw the Friday night game for his respective team.

I wasn't sure what all of the hype was around MSU this season anyway. They were way worse than we were last year, but started the year ranked #15. I was surprised to see them sweep Oregon, but figured it would catch up to them eventually. I suspect they will be lucky to win 1 this weekend vs. Vandy.

CUSA Baseball - RPI / Team RPI / Polls 2016

UPDATED **Live - March 20, 2016

Conference RPI
Top 10 Conferences (Baseball) Rating Pecentage Index CUSA #4 out of 32 Conferences

Current. Last...................................Movement
1 - 1) ACC 0.5840 1 145 - 46 0.7592 Same
2 - 2) SEC 0.5774 2 194 - 50 0.7951 Same
3 - 3) Pac 12 0.5553 3 97 - 63 0.6062 Same
4 - 4) Conference USA 0.5386 4 120 - 77 0.6091 Same
5 - 8) Big 12 0.5369 5 90 - 66 0.5769 Up 3
6 -7) Big West 0.5342 6 101 - 60 0.6273 Up 1
7- 5) American Athletic 0.5354 5 72 - 59 0.5496 Down 2
8 - 6) West Coast 0.5342 6 101 - 60 0.6273 Down 2
9 - 11 SBC 0.5172 9 86 - 70 0.5513 Up 2
10 -10) Big Ten 0.5171 10 103 - 107 0.4905 Same


Link .... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/conferencerpi

6 CUSA teams in Top 66 RPI This Week March 13 -19, 2016

12) Southern Miss 2-1 0.667 1 16-5 0.762 12 9-3 7- UP 2
15) Old Dominion 3-0 1.000 - 16-4 0.800 16 6-2 7-3 up 9
37) Rice 1-1 0.500 1½ 9-9 0.500 35 3-5 6-4 Up 4
45) Western Kentucky 0-3 0.000 3 11-8 0.579 46 3-3 4-6 Down 1
51) Florida Atlantic 1-1 0.500 1½ 14-3 0.824 55 2-0 7- UP 4
66) UTSA 1-1 0.500 1½ 10-8 0.556 63 4-5 4-6 Down 7

LAST WEEK (March 6 -12, 2016)
Top 80 Teams RPI (7 CUSA teams Top 80)

14) Southern Miss 0-0 0.000 - 14-4 0.778
24) Old Dominion 0-0 0.000 - 12-4 0.750
41) Rice 0-0 0.000 - 8-8 0.500
44) Western Kentucky 0-0 0.000 - 11-5 0.688
55) Florida Atlantic 0-0 0.000 - 13-2 0.867
59) UTSA 0-0 0.000 - 9-7 0.562
78) Louisiana Tech 0-0 0.000 - 8-4 0.667


Link All RPI.... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/rpi

CUSA Only Link ... http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/con...erence-USA

National Rankings UPDATED Monday 3/21/16 - Coaches Poll
31) Old Dominion 16-4 27 NR last week
36) Southern Miss 16-5 19 43 Last Week

Link,,,, http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/polls

Rankings - D1Baseball.com Top 25

Others considered: Alabama, BYU, UC Santa Barbara, Dallas Baptist, Georgia Tech, Old Dominion, Tulane, South Alabama, Southern Miss

Link... http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d1...com-top-25

CBN Poll
None

I didn't really want to revisit this again, but I thought it would be interesting to take a snapshot of where every team's RPI was this week and what happened after the first weekend of conference play.

This will give you an example of why win/loss percentage is so important once you get to conference play.

Every team in this league regardless of outcome left this weekend with a higher RPI than they started with the exception of Louisiana Tech. Why Tech? Because they lost 2 out of 3 to the only team in the league that had a terrible non-conference win percentage. Even wkcc gained in RPI despite losing three straight to Old Dominion. Why? Because of ODU's win percentage. It helps that ODU's SOS is pretty good too, so their opponents/opponents record is good. As the season wears on however, the opponents/opponents record will begin to transition from being weighted from non-conference to conference.

But that 50% of the formula that's just your opponents will come squarely upon win/loss percentage. This is why C-USA is poised to be a top five conference this year (assuming we don't start losing a bunch of mid week games). We're going to have a lot of teams in the top 100. Very exciting year for baseball. Just hope my Raiders can get it together. We knew we weren't going to hit much, but pitching was supposed to be a strength. So far a big flop.

(03-17-2016 11:59 AM)EaglehasLanded Wrote:  I suspect they will be lucky to win 1 this weekend vs. Vandy.

And they took 2/3 from Vandy. @ Vandy.

(03-21-2016 08:02 AM)southernmiss4ever Wrote:  

(03-17-2016 11:59 AM)EaglehasLanded Wrote:  I suspect they will be lucky to win 1 this weekend vs. Vandy.

And they took 2/3 from Vandy. @ Vandy.

Saw that... Guess I jinxed it!!