I've got them beating Oregon and losing in the Sweet 16. I have attended two Oregon games in person this year and was not overly impressed. I think they haven't seen a defense like the Bearcats, and Bearcats win in a squeeker!

I have the Bearcats beating the Ducks and losing to the Dookies.

(03-15-2016 03:33 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  I have them losing first game. I heard the ESPN talking heads state stats that say teams that lose the first game of their conference tourney usually lose first game of the NCAA.

I don't like their chances because coach after coach and analyst after analyst I've listened to has said in order to advance you have to score. Bill Self said it best (and I heard Mick say it later), at this point in the season everyone can guard and is playing good defense. It's the teams who put the ball in the basket who survive. Unfortunately that is NOT UC's strong point. Maybe that's the reason they rarely do well in March?

I'm scratching my head trying to understand how the Hawks ended up as an 8 seed. They finished fourth in the A10 (13-5) and went 6-4 over their last 10 regular season games. Nothing really stands out in who they beat (three wins against Dayton) but they did win 3 in a row to take the A10 tourney championship. I guess they have some momentum going into the dance. The Cats should win this game but I will not pick them to get past Oregon. The "lowest" of the #1 seeds is still pretty damn good and this gets more difficult with a less than full strength Gary Clark.

(03-15-2016 08:35 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  I'm scratching my head trying to understand how the Hawks ended up as an 8 seed. They finished fourth in the A10 (13-5) and went 6-4 over their last 10 regular season games. Nothing really stands out in who they beat (three wins against Dayton) but they did win 3 in a row to take the A10 tourney championship. I guess they have some momentum going into the dance. The Cats should win this game but I will not pick them to get past Oregon. The "lowest" of the #1 seeds is still pretty damn good and this gets more difficult with a less than full strength Gary Clark.

What's funny is that St. Joes is the highest ranked 8 seed according to KenPom, all of which are underdogs in their respective match ups.

Sweet 16. Joe's and Oregon are both beatable. But until MC gets us past the 1st weekend, I'm skeptical.

I have them out after the first game, which means they will be in the Final Four.

(03-15-2016 09:13 PM)Overrated Wrote:  

(03-15-2016 08:35 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  I'm scratching my head trying to understand how the Hawks ended up as an 8 seed. They finished fourth in the A10 (13-5) and went 6-4 over their last 10 regular season games. Nothing really stands out in who they beat (three wins against Dayton) but they did win 3 in a row to take the A10 tourney championship. I guess they have some momentum going into the dance. The Cats should win this game but I will not pick them to get past Oregon. The "lowest" of the #1 seeds is still pretty damn good and this gets more difficult with a less than full strength Gary Clark.

What's funny is that St. Joes is the highest ranked 8 seed according to KenPom, all of which are underdogs in their respective match ups.

I noticed that too. St Joe is a solid team. Toughest 8 seed by kenpom but I still think they are an ideal matchup for uc

(03-15-2016 09:32 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(03-15-2016 09:13 PM)Overrated Wrote:  

(03-15-2016 08:35 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  I'm scratching my head trying to understand how the Hawks ended up as an 8 seed. They finished fourth in the A10 (13-5) and went 6-4 over their last 10 regular season games. Nothing really stands out in who they beat (three wins against Dayton) but they did win 3 in a row to take the A10 tourney championship. I guess they have some momentum going into the dance. The Cats should win this game but I will not pick them to get past Oregon. The "lowest" of the #1 seeds is still pretty damn good and this gets more difficult with a less than full strength Gary Clark.

What's funny is that St. Joes is the highest ranked 8 seed according to KenPom, all of which are underdogs in their respective match ups.

I noticed that too. St Joe is a solid team. Toughest 8 seed by kenpom but I still think they are an ideal matchup for uc

Now that is interesting:

Providence (-2) vs. USC
Butler (-4) vs. Texas Tech
UConn (-3) vs. Colorado
Cincinnati (-1.5) vs. St. Joseph’s

We can't have one of our patented 8-min scoring droughts in the NCAA. The first game we do that will be our last game.

(03-15-2016 05:20 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  eh I homered us to the elite 8


I never do that as I usually use my head not heart. After all the bad luck we've had I figured, why not do the homer pick.

I used my heart to pick Army over Penn State and Navy. It got shattered.

I have St. Joe's winning. They are on a hot streak.

(03-15-2016 09:22 PM)bww Wrote:  I have them out after the first game, which means they will be in the Final Four.

Really I picked UC to the final 4.

(03-15-2016 03:35 PM)BigDawg Wrote:  

(03-15-2016 03:33 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  I have them losing first game. I heard the ESPN talking heads state stats that say teams that lose the first game of their conference tourney usually lose first game of the NCAA.

Usually those teams are playing double digit seeds and not NCAA worthy teams like UConn in the 1st round, so I don't think that really applies here. Because SMU was ineligible, they had to change the brackets so UC had the play UConn instead of a team like UCF. Big difference.

Great point Dawg. The "Mendoza" line in this conference is VERY sharp. Huge difference between top and lower halfs (more of a step function than a ramp).

(03-15-2016 05:20 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  eh I homered us to the elite 8


I never do that as I usually use my head not heart. After all the bad luck we've had I figured, why not do the homer pick.

Well, there's the bag also.

(03-16-2016 08:16 AM)Brian_Johnson Wrote:  

(03-15-2016 05:20 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  eh I homered us to the elite 8


I never do that as I usually use my head not heart. After all the bad luck we've had I figured, why not do the homer pick.

Well, there's the bag also.

Exactly

Hence my Elite 8 pick...

I'm generally a nervous wreck watching tourney games until UC plays, two days may be difficult.

(03-16-2016 08:40 AM)BeerCat Wrote:  I'm generally a nervous wreck watching tourney games until UC plays, two days may be difficult.

I believe we are the last game to tip-off in the entire tourney.

I'm feeling really positive about the first weekend... I have UC beating Oregon - losing to Baylor in the Sweet 16.

Update on my bracket... after day 1 only missed 2 Yale and AR Little Rock.

BTW, I only fill out 1 bracket. I know some that fill out 2, 3 or more.

How many do you guys fill out and how are you doing after day #1?

I missed Little Rock and Providence.