The Dance Card (
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm) has always been one of my favorite Tournament Trackers over the years. In 2011, it accurately predicted UAB in the field. If we used the formula to seed the NIT, here's what it would look like.
Note: we all know the NIT Committee will have a ton of selection bias, including geographical considerations, so the end result will be likely be wildly different.
Here's what we've got. Teams are listed with their Dance Card coefficient. Rankings through yesterday's games:
The 1s
Monmouth (50)*
Valpo (51)*
Tulsa (52)
Syracuse (53)
The 2s
Wichita State (54)*
South Carolina (56)
Washington (57)
George Washington (58)
The 3s
Georgia Tech (59)
Virginia Tech (60)
Hofstra (63)
Ohio State (64)
The 4s
Bammer (66)
Stanford (68)
Georgia (69)
Princeton (70)
The 5s
Houston (71)
Davidson (72)
LSU (73)
Florida State (76)
The 6s
BYU (77)
William & Mary (78)
Marquette (79)
UC Irvine (81)
The 7s
Fresno State (82)
UAB (83)*
Belmont (116)*
Winthrop (141)*
The 8s
North Florida (167)*
Bucknell (168)*
Wagner (169)*
Texas Southern (206)*
*autobids
Last Four In:
William & Mary (78)
Marquette (79)
UC Irvine (81)
Fresno State (82)
First Four Out:
IPFW (84)
Clemson (85)
Creighton (88)
Long Beach St (89)
Conference tournaments could still cause some chaos. Tonight, Akron, Little Rock, Stephen F Austin, Hawaii, New Mexico State, and Weber State are all 1-seeds playing in their tournament final. Should they slip up, it would squeeze out an at-large team and add them to the mix. We're guaranteed at least a 7, but we may be able to get a 6 if Hawaii, New Mexico State, and Weber State get the
.
Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Bammer, Georgia, and maybe even a rematch at Virginia Tech are all first round possibilities. I'd like to see the Blazers play at Wichita State, personally.