(03-14-2016 06:08 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(03-14-2016 04:32 PM)brista21 Wrote:  

(03-13-2016 10:33 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  You would also want to consider UTah, Rutgers and Louisville, 3 schools who were not football power-conference schools in 1986 but are now P5 members.

And maybe consider the entire ACC, which didn't have a major bowl tie-in. (No the PEach was not a quasi-major bowl, Pirate Nation.)

To build on your earlier statement, Penn State, Florida State, Miami, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Boston College were also not football power conference members in 1986 but are now P5 members as they were all independents. That being said many among that group of schools including Rutgers and Louisville were playing schedules made up of primarily each other, power conference schools and a few usually regional OOC matchups that didn't fit either bill.

Or is the relevant comparison to the CFA, which I think was the Big 10, Pac 10, SWC, Big 8, SEC, ACC, WAC and about 20 independents? (I"ve never seen a list of the independents in the CFA, but we can make a pretty good guess.)

The CFA would be a good comparison and yea I don't know all the indies in the CFA but Notre Dame and the aforementioned parties (as far as I know) were part of it.

(03-13-2016 12:45 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(03-13-2016 11:00 AM)upstater1 Wrote:  Just as an FYI about a school like Buffalo it is comparable to the U. California AAU schools like Cal-Santa Barbara, San Diego, etc. It is actually the flagship of the New York universities. I'm not going to compare it to Berkeley, because Cal has a huge academic rep. Nonetheless, UB is not really a metro or city school. It represents the state and draws 1/2 of its students from New York City.

Athletically, they are hampered in recruiting. Syracuse should be feeling the same sort of pressures. Very little football in western and central New York. Astonishingly, Buffalo doesnt have a D1 hockey team. if it ever started one, it would quickly rise to the top. Within 1 1/4 hour's drive of Buffalo, there are 10 million people. The top sport for these 10 million people is hockey.

Cornell served the land grant purpose in New York prior to development of SUNY which is a relatively new phenom.

The Buffalo market helped UB get into the MAC so the story is the same as other urban schools but they just happened to also be an AAU school. Again a school has to be well funded in athletics AND a land grant like UConn. Pro sports, a lot of other colleges, weather seem to be factors against Buffalo.

It's not that you have to be a land grant to be a great school. Its that land grants will have long term funding advantages which will translate into athletic factors. Even if they don't have large enrollments they'll continue to trend up.

UConn, Virginia Tech, Utah improved the most since the mid 80's by achieving mega athletic brand status. Louisville a good ACC FB/BB brand in both sports. The metro schools in general have improved over their mid major counterparts but they haven't become national brands.

I'm not sure what land grant has to do with anything though. The Cals are not land grant schools, and most of them (including the non-D1 football schools like Davis, Santa Barbara, Irvine, San Diego, etc.) are very highly regarded.

I still don't consider Buffalo a city school. First, because its not in the city, but second, it serves the state rather than the region. I think it is pretty telling when a school like this is considered the state's flagship.

I agree with you about the sports end of it. They are simply in a bad region for football.

But it pays to remember that it is the State University of New York at Buffalo. This is no different than, say, University of California, San Diego or University of California, Los Angeles. In fact, the state of New York stole the blueprint of the California state university charter system from the 1950s to create the State University of New York system in the 1960s. You are right that these are relatively new schools, but so are the University of California schools.

(03-12-2016 07:11 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The prevailing logic is that if you have a big media market the sky is the limit.

The reality is that urban public schools while they rise to the top of the mid major athletics food chain they don't get invited to the club. The B1G, SEC, B12 and PAC don't contain any of those type of schools and the AAC has only Louisville and Pittsburgh. Others are stuck in G5 conferences.

AAC: Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF, USF, Temple
MWC: San Diego St, Fresno St, San Jose St, Boise St, UNLV
CUSA: UTEP, UTSA, UAB, Charlotte, Old Dominion, FAU, FIU
MAC: Akron, Toledo, Buffalo
SBC: Georgia State

22 urban publics play at the G5 level against only 2 urban publics in a P5. A big media market says that someday this school could be in the AAC, MWC or at least CUSA.

Forecasting the next 30 years, its the land grants with deep athletic pockets that seem to have the most P5 potential. UConn in this regard is the #1 draft pick for the B12. They don't have to worry about higher education funding in Connecticut in a rich, liberal state.

Some of these urban schools you've got to wonder if legislatures will have room to fund them in the future. Southern states have been a good bet from 1986-2016 with growth but will that be the case in the next 30 years if those states have financial crisis?

(03-13-2016 04:30 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Southern Mississippi is actually in a large town. Nevada in Reno is also a large metro if you think about other towns near them.

But then, you got to look at some FCS schools in the large markets as well.

Portland State
Sacramento State
Weber State
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Houston Baptist
Lamar
North Dakota
North Dakota State
Alabama A&M
Alabama State
Jackson State
Central Conneticutt State
Delaware
Delaware State
Bethune-Cookman
Florida A&M
Savannah State
Idaho State
Illinois State
Butler
Indiana State

I guess you get my drift?
The two biggest ones in FCS are Stony Brook and Fordham.

You probably need a primer on what constitutes a large market...