(03-12-2016 11:22 PM)murrdcu Wrote: (03-12-2016 01:24 PM)Jayesseagle Wrote: Just my idea of what would not surprise me in the next realignment !
The Big 10, I have no clue as to what they may do.
AAU and contiguous. I'm sure they would prefer large state schools with huge alumni bases, but they also love academics and research. The B1G's last addition was a research facility that also happens to have a university and lacrosse team attached to it somewhere; John Hopkin's.
Let's look at AAU schools that border the current B1G footprint:
University of Colorado Boulder
Kansas University
University of Missouri
Columbia (NY) Private Ivy
Cornell (NY) Private Ivy
New York University (NY) Private
Stony Brook
NY @ Buffalo Public
University of Rochester (NY) Private
University of Virginia
They really only have four candidates realistically to start with. Colorado realigned their sports with where the majority of their alumni live, California. Kansas makes a perfect fit. Virginia makes a perfect fit. Missouri would fill in the square, but the public request by Missouri's Governor fell on deaf ears as Nebraska was selected instead leaving egg on their face.
Now if the B1G added Virginia, other contiguous schools become available:
Duke University
North Carolina
Vanderbilt University
My best guess would be Virginia and Kansas or Virginia and UNC with or without Duke. If the B1G added four you could get to Florida by grabbing UVA, UNC or Duke, Georgia Tech and the University of Florida. That's about it.
Let's have an absolute dose of reality shall we?
1. If money is your motivation the SEC makes more and even if the Big 10 moves to 16 first and gets a boost, the SEC's move to 16 would most assuredly bump them right back to the top.
2. Football and basketball aren't the only sports. That's why whether it is the Big 10 or SEC they will make contiguous additions and will not have outliers, period.
3. A Texas recruit is going to want to play their games where the majority of the games can be seen by Mom & Dad. If Texas ever headed to the Big 10 A&M's home advantage would skyrocket and the Horns know this. Oklahoma moving to the Big 10 without Texas is sports suicide. Softball, baseball, and other minor sports will all suffer too.
4. Rivalries sell tickets. I look for the future realignment to guarantee rivalries, not end them.
5. If Virginia leaves the ACC North Carolina will leave as well. The only way the Big 10 or SEC moves to 18 is if North Carolina moves with Virginia to either conference because Duke will be a requirement and Virginia Tech might be.
6. When the Maryland defection happened UNC's contingency was the SEC with Duke but only if the ACC collapsed. Should the Big 10 move to 16 with Kansas and Virginia I look for the SEC to move to 16 with Duke and North Carolina. Slive had already agreed to the contingency and I don't see Stankey reneging on that.
7. I would love for us to land OU but if they decide to head North then either OSU or TCU to get DFW is all we need to the West if we want the DFW area solidified. Personally I don't see Oklahoma being so stupid as to move to the Big 10. Think about it. They would immediately be the 16th rated academic institution in the Big 10 below Nebraska. Their minor sports suffer. Their culture is not a fit. And the Nebraska / OU game would merely become a shell of its former self.
I could see them headed West with the right package.
8. I really don't think the Big 10 is going to add anyone prior to the next contract.
9. It isn't about academics anymore, or about athletics either. It's about money. There are two ways to meet that end if you desire to change conferences. First move to a conference that pays more. Second move to a conference where your travel doesn't kill your budget. When it comes to Oklahoma and Texas their best option in spite of former stances to the contrary is the SEC. They would essentially have a division more compact than the present Big 12 in total. The move would also reunite them with traditional rivals and old rivals. It would be a win for their travel crowds, their minor sports, and their fan base as a whole. Keep those folks happy and the money will follow.
10. Maybe the Big 10 takes Kansas, but they have passed on them before. If they can't land Virginia they would be better off market wise to pick up Syracuse and B.C. But since those two aren't AAU who knows. If the ACC won't be broken the Big 10 really is out of profitable options already unless the AAU thing is abandoned.
Personally, I think that the Virginia and North Carolina schools stay the course and because of that the SEC leaves Florida State and Clemson alone.
If we move to a P4 Champs only model in which the ACC core stands firm I think Connecticut (or possibly WVU) and Notre Dame finish out the ACC. Oklahoma and possibly OSU or if OSU is provided for WVU finish out the SEC. I think Texas heads West with as many Texas schools as they can take with them. And I think political pressure eventually forces the Big 10 to take Kansas and Iowa State. Why? There won't be anyone else left that they could take.
There is a long line of scenarios plotting the massive moves. It will much more likely be additions to 16, especially if the ACC remains. If the ACC doesn't stand firm then conferences of 18 to 20 become possible, but not probable. If both the ACC and Big 12 fold then it will be 20 each for the PAC, Big 10 and SEC, but I don't think that happens either.
And above all else remember this. The Big 10 might well desire Oklahoma, but if that is the case it is out of the recognition that if the market footprint model does find itself in peril that they above all other conferences except the ACC will be disadvantaged moving forward because of their lack of content on the gridiron. The SEC doesn't have that problem. Which by the way is another factor Oklahoma will have to wrestle with before moving North.
