RE: NCAA tournament bracketology: Projecting the field of 68
I tend to believe the criteria for the making the tournament is this.
1. Win 40 percent or more your games against top 100 level teams against a large sample size (12 or more)
2. Maintain computer ratings in the top 50 of the RPI, BPI, and Kenpom
3. Avoid bad losses, one or two sub 100 are ok but any more than that is a red flag. Sub 200 losses are a red flag.
4. SOS numbers, overall SOS must be lower than 100, non-conference lower than 200. (Playing a majority of your games against good competition matters)
5. .500 or better in your conference
Cincinnati checks off all the traditional selection committee marks, some not by a lot (RPI at 47) but the Bearcats have an NCAA resume. I believe UC is ahead of every team listed below which are true teams right at the cut line based on the general criteria used by the committee each year.
Teams that fail in multiple areas:
1. St Bonnie, Kenpom and BPI are sky high (70+). Lost one sub 100 game, and one sub 200 game.
2. Akron, didn't play enough quality teams, too many sub 100 losses, poor non-conference SOS 207, overall SOS 122
3. St. Mary's- failed to play enough quality teams in the non-conference, poor SOS at 148, played all non-conference games at home except one. Two sub 100 losses.
4. Providence-Non-conference SOS is 214, 2-7 against the top 50, three sub 100 losses including a loss to sub 200 DePaul
5. SDSU-awful record against the top 100, sub 300 loss to San Diego. BPI is 58
6. Wichita State-poor record agains the top 100, overall SOS is 105
7. Valpo-poor SOS number 161, four sub 100 losses
8. Pitt-non conference SOS is 190, two sub 100 losses, 2-7 against the top 50
9 Monmouth-Poor overall SOS at 166, three sub 200 losses, sky high Kenpom and BPI. RPI sits outside the top 50
10. Hofstra-poor overall SOS and too many sub 100 losses, poor computer numbers as well
11. Florida-RPI is in the mid 50's record versus the top 100 is 7-13, including a 2-7 top 500. One sub 100 loss.
12. Butler-overall record agains the top 100 is 5-8, non-conference SOS is 242. Two sub 100 losses
13. Michigan 4-11 against the top 50, 4-12 against the top 100. Non-conference SOS is 192. Outside the top 50 in the BPI, RPI, and Kenpom
14. Tulsa-Three sub 100 losses, so-so computer numbers in all metric.
15. Temple-really poor computer numbers in all metrics. Sub 100 loss to ECU.
16. Vandy-RPI in the 60's. Three sub 100 losses.
17. South Carolina-non-conference SOS is 269. RPI in the 60's. Better numbers in the computers but not great. Three sub 140 losses including sub 200 Missouri
18. George Washington-awesome non-conference wins are offset by bad losses, bad computer numbers, and overall poor record against the top 100.
19. Syracuse- RPI in the 70's. Poor overall record. Three bad losses including one to sub 200 St. John's
These are teams the will receive consideration for the last few spots. Wisconsin, VCU if they lose today, Texas Tech, Oregon State, USC, UConn if they lose today, and Cincinnati all above this group and should be by their merits in the tournament and not in the First Four. Out of this group, I could see Cincinnati, Oregon State, VCU, and USC landing as the best team in Dayton but not out of the tournament.
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NCAA tournament bracketology: Projecting the field of 68
