(03-09-2016 03:19 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 03:13 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 02:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 02:49 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 02:33 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  Yeah, no AAC team is signing that... they're all jockeying for position to get called up to the adult's table, why would they handcuff themselves to a G5 league?

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It's an interesting conundrum, isn't it? If all the G5 schools would band together and refuse any overtures from the P5 conferences, then ultimately all of them would benefit and ultimately add value to their respective conferences. It's one of those classic cases of game theory. If all G5 stay together, then they ultimately help themselves - as a collective - to a larger payout of X', where X' = (X +c). However, if they refuse to agree to a GOR and try their luck in the lottery, then it's a handful of lucky schools will get Y, where Y>X'>X. The remaining schools who do not get picked likely end up with X'', where X" = (X - a). The variable X in both cases stand for a G5 school's current reality today wrt TV payouts.

Ultimately, a G5 school will likely prefer to make Y at a 10% probability and a 90% chance of making (X - a) instead of guaranteeing itself (practically speaking) a 90%+ chance of making (X + c).

What you see is what you get for the G5. (X+c) is the booby prize. We already have it. Its the consolation prize for not being in the P5---"here ya' go---a free crappy pre-Christmas bowl version of the actual New Year Day College Football Playoff---hope you enjoy our parting gift and thanks for playing our totally rigged game".

Agreed. It'd probably make for a good movie script if the G5 schools, one by one, rose their fists in solidarity and defiance, but it'd be a symbolic victory and little else. Why would TV be more likely to see higher value if the G5s banded together, in whatever form that would take? The MAC has to accept midweek November games to stay on the Worldwide Leader. CUSA games are often on some random triple-digit channel. That's not going to magically change.

Plus, the G5 doesn't think of itself as the G5, this group of second-tier D-I football schools. It's more of a loose confederation of members that have their own interests at heart first and foremost, and if it benefits their conference or the nebulous concept of G5, then hey, happy side effect. The only schools that would see value in publicly voicing their support for G5 are the ones that know that it's all they'll ever hope to be. And most schools, even the ones that have Powerball-sized odds of moving up, aren't going to give up their ticket.

If you get the G5 schools to unite, and you get the alumni of these schools and any college sports fan who has a G5 school as his/her primary rooting interest to tune out and refuse to attend any P5 sporting events then you can make change. Again, it's back to game theory, and most people fall for the sucker's bet.

A number of the G5 conferences are not as valuable because they lack stability. They lack stability because there are no GORs. Stability adds value.

I tune out anything not related to UConn by and large, so I guess I'm doing my part for the G5.

WE ARE READY TO SIGN

/Tulane!

(03-09-2016 04:00 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 03:19 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 03:13 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 02:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 02:49 PM)miko33 Wrote:  It's an interesting conundrum, isn't it? If all the G5 schools would band together and refuse any overtures from the P5 conferences, then ultimately all of them would benefit and ultimately add value to their respective conferences. It's one of those classic cases of game theory. If all G5 stay together, then they ultimately help themselves - as a collective - to a larger payout of X', where X' = (X +c). However, if they refuse to agree to a GOR and try their luck in the lottery, then it's a handful of lucky schools will get Y, where Y>X'>X. The remaining schools who do not get picked likely end up with X'', where X" = (X - a). The variable X in both cases stand for a G5 school's current reality today wrt TV payouts.

Ultimately, a G5 school will likely prefer to make Y at a 10% probability and a 90% chance of making (X - a) instead of guaranteeing itself (practically speaking) a 90%+ chance of making (X + c).

What you see is what you get for the G5. (X+c) is the booby prize. We already have it. Its the consolation prize for not being in the P5---"here ya' go---a free crappy pre-Christmas bowl version of the actual New Year Day College Football Playoff---hope you enjoy our parting gift and thanks for playing our totally rigged game".

Agreed. It'd probably make for a good movie script if the G5 schools, one by one, rose their fists in solidarity and defiance, but it'd be a symbolic victory and little else. Why would TV be more likely to see higher value if the G5s banded together, in whatever form that would take? The MAC has to accept midweek November games to stay on the Worldwide Leader. CUSA games are often on some random triple-digit channel. That's not going to magically change.

Plus, the G5 doesn't think of itself as the G5, this group of second-tier D-I football schools. It's more of a loose confederation of members that have their own interests at heart first and foremost, and if it benefits their conference or the nebulous concept of G5, then hey, happy side effect. The only schools that would see value in publicly voicing their support for G5 are the ones that know that it's all they'll ever hope to be. And most schools, even the ones that have Powerball-sized odds of moving up, aren't going to give up their ticket.

If you get the G5 schools to unite, and you get the alumni of these schools and any college sports fan who has a G5 school as his/her primary rooting interest to tune out and refuse to attend any P5 sporting events then you can make change. Again, it's back to game theory, and most people fall for the sucker's bet.

A number of the G5 conferences are not as valuable because they lack stability. They lack stability because there are no GORs. Stability adds value.

Nope. Exhibit one---the MAC.

Exactly. And that's one of the Primary Myths that AAC fans have about the AAC television contract: That the TV deal is peanuts because at the time it was signed the AAC was "unstable".

In truth, the TV deal is peanuts because that's just how much the networks felt that the AAC brand was worth at the time. A stable low-value thing isn't any more valuable than an unstable one.

Will they think it is worth more in 2020? We'll see.

(03-11-2016 10:36 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 04:00 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 03:19 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 03:13 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(03-09-2016 02:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  What you see is what you get for the G5. (X+c) is the booby prize. We already have it. Its the consolation prize for not being in the P5---"here ya' go---a free crappy pre-Christmas bowl version of the actual New Year Day College Football Playoff---hope you enjoy our parting gift and thanks for playing our totally rigged game".

Agreed. It'd probably make for a good movie script if the G5 schools, one by one, rose their fists in solidarity and defiance, but it'd be a symbolic victory and little else. Why would TV be more likely to see higher value if the G5s banded together, in whatever form that would take? The MAC has to accept midweek November games to stay on the Worldwide Leader. CUSA games are often on some random triple-digit channel. That's not going to magically change.

Plus, the G5 doesn't think of itself as the G5, this group of second-tier D-I football schools. It's more of a loose confederation of members that have their own interests at heart first and foremost, and if it benefits their conference or the nebulous concept of G5, then hey, happy side effect. The only schools that would see value in publicly voicing their support for G5 are the ones that know that it's all they'll ever hope to be. And most schools, even the ones that have Powerball-sized odds of moving up, aren't going to give up their ticket.

If you get the G5 schools to unite, and you get the alumni of these schools and any college sports fan who has a G5 school as his/her primary rooting interest to tune out and refuse to attend any P5 sporting events then you can make change. Again, it's back to game theory, and most people fall for the sucker's bet.

A number of the G5 conferences are not as valuable because they lack stability. They lack stability because there are no GORs. Stability adds value.

Nope. Exhibit one---the MAC.

Exactly. And that's one of the Primary Myths that AAC fans have about the AAC television contract: That the TV deal is peanuts because at the time it was signed the AAC was "unstable".

In truth, the TV deal is peanuts because that's just how much the networks felt that the AAC brand was worth at the time. A stable low-value thing isn't any more valuable than an unstable one.

Will they think it is worth more in 2020? We'll see.

It wasn't just unstable---it was desperate. If Aresco didn't bring something to the table fast, the fear was the western block would join the MW and the rest of the conference would collapse. Desperate people dont win at the negotiating table. There is a reason you get foreclosures and short sales at below market pricing.

Plus South Florida, Connecticut and Cincinnati all felt left behind in Big East split.

The G5 could band together and once the P5 offered some invites to a few teams, those schools would leave quicker than the Israelites out of Egypt.

(03-11-2016 11:16 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Plus South Florida, Connecticut and Cincinnati all felt left behind in Big East split.

WERE left behind.

There is no "felt" to it.

Miko doesn't get enough credit for being an elite level troll.

Miko...well done. Quality post.

(03-11-2016 11:16 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Plus South Florida, Connecticut and Cincinnati all felt left behind in Big East split.

We sure did. But our feelings about being left behind didn't impact our TV value.

Damn, is the Nigerian Prince at it again ?

(03-09-2016 01:56 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Would love to see the vote results of that one just to see how many AAC programs think they have even the slightest chance of getting called up. My guess is somewhere around 10-11 "nays"

Sh!t, I guess Taylor Swift is right haters gonna hate,hate,hate.