(03-13-2016 12:41 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  

(03-13-2016 09:52 AM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  

(03-12-2016 02:13 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  Except I didn't, and wouldn't, project a big man who solely plays around the basket. I projected two guards and a stretch 4. You don't have to believe the stat, because I know there are clear faults in it. But if you look at metrics on Freeman he ranks behind Hamilton and Kelly in PER, behind Hamilton in Win Shares, and behind Hamilton (and interestingly enough Brandan Stith) in box score plus minus. I like to think in terms of stats and numbers, and it isn't like what I wrote is too much of an outlier.

You're absolutely right. They all could have easily averaged 30 a game and dozens of people could have scored 42 on Friday against WKU to set the new conference tournament scoring record in a game. Heck, I don't know why they don't just take every shot, average 80 a game and watch the victories stack up. I guess guys like Evans of Rice just don't want to score that much to help their team win ... go figure?

I don't even know how to argue with this type of stupidity. Nothing I've said is an indictment of ODU's system this year, just what would happen if you put other guys in a similar system. Disagree with my stat all you want, but you can't disagree with every metric that illustrates the same point. I'm done with this conversation. I don't dislike Freeman, I think he's a great player, and as I've said before, he has the potential to play in the NBA.

Very valid points made.

PPG is not that the end all stat and definitely not the only stat to claim a shoe-in for POY last year and this year. Especially with team that relied heavily on high-volume of shots by Freeman, I'm sure the coaches considered that in their voting,

(03-13-2016 12:41 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  

(03-13-2016 09:52 AM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  

(03-12-2016 02:13 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  Except I didn't, and wouldn't, project a big man who solely plays around the basket. I projected two guards and a stretch 4. You don't have to believe the stat, because I know there are clear faults in it. But if you look at metrics on Freeman he ranks behind Hamilton and Kelly in PER, behind Hamilton in Win Shares, and behind Hamilton (and interestingly enough Brandan Stith) in box score plus minus. I like to think in terms of stats and numbers, and it isn't like what I wrote is too much of an outlier.

You're absolutely right. They all could have easily averaged 30 a game and dozens of people could have scored 42 on Friday against WKU to set the new conference tournament scoring record in a game. Heck, I don't know why they don't just take every shot, average 80 a game and watch the victories stack up. I guess guys like Evans of Rice just don't want to score that much to help their team win ... go figure?

I don't even know how to argue with this type of stupidity. Nothing I've said is an indictment of ODU's system this year, just what would happen if you put other guys in a similar system. Disagree with my stat all you want, but you can't disagree with every metric that illustrates the same point. I'm done with this conversation. I don't dislike Freeman, I think he's a great player, and as I've said before, he has the potential to play in the NBA.

I agree that it is stupid and you'd be arguing with yourself! You're the one that stated that with more (or the same number of) shot attempts all of those players you mentioned could score more than Freeman (or basically 30 which I mentioned above). Certainly they would score more than they did with more shots taken. The law of averages indicates that they would not miss everything that they shot with the additional shots that they took (they are bound to hit some of them), but how many more neither you nor your metrics know. Several of us have replied that in real life it doesn't work out quite that way simply by increasing the data to a higher figure and saying this guy would likely score 27.1, this one 26.7, etc. There are any number of reasons why players in most any sport reach a tipping point of diminishing returns where their numbers simply don't do what you are implying they would (or implying they could). That is really the ONLY point here. Where does your metrics reach that tipping point??? Perhaps those players you mentioned already did reach or go beyond that tipping point with their current averages (and shot attempts) and that is why they didn't shoot more than they did. Perhaps Freeman reached or surpassed his too and if he had taken a few less shots a game and then you ran your numbers on him it would have shown he would have scored 28-30 had he shot as many times as he actually did. If any of the players you mentioned either reached or slightly surpassed their tipping points then your data right out of the box is off as soon as you start expanding it outward based upon their current averages. You simply don't know so it is silly to speculate otherwise and then to get offended if challenged because of it.

You want to put those "other guys in a similar system" as what Freeman is playing in. Hell, Baycote is very skilled senior back court player (made the all tournament team) that actually plays for ODU and even he isn't "in a similar system" as far as attempting to do what Freeman does. Freeman frequently plays 40 minutes, is constantly running side to side, baseline to top of the key and back off screens trying to get just a foot or two of separation to shoot what often is a contested turn around jump shot. Baycote is a different style of player and isn't adept at doing that. No way a guy like Kelly that you listed can do that time and time again down the floor (if at all) which makes your "system" quote absurd. Sure Baycote (or Kelly, or Hamilton, or Evans) could shoot more shots and score more points than they did otherwise, but they would not ALL be the same kind of shots if they were taking an additional 10 or more shots per game as the ones they actually were already taking. Those guys took the shots that matched their game same as Freeman did. In his case that allows for a lot more opportunities to take his kind of shots than would be present for those others if they were playing in ODU's "system" or their own systems. Everything in sports isn't ALWAYS about statistics, especially when you are trying to expand on existing statistics and say this could be this if the frequency were increased. I've been an electrical engineer for the past 40+ years so I too know a bit about math and statistics. Even more important to this conversation, I've been closely following the game of college basketball longer than that.

No one here, including myself, have said or insinuated that you disliked Freeman so where did that come from?

Oh, and to have Dawgass agree with you isn't exactly compelling. He's a noted ODU hater that occasionally tries to mask it by saying something nice about ODU. Monarch Nation isn't so easily fooled.

Did Speedy get it while averaging under 10pts/game?
Other factors are considered along with "we don't get to vote!
The votes that count are the only votes that matter.

(03-13-2016 04:44 PM)notnow Wrote:  Did Speedy get it while averaging under 10pts/game?
Other factors are considered along with "we don't get to vote!
The votes that count are the only votes that matter.

Speedy averaged 6 points a game.
Yes, everything is taken into consideration for determining the MVP.
Yes, the only votes that count are the only votes that matter.

Just so you know since it at least appears that you jumped to a wrong conclusion, the recent conversations on this topic are not related to Speedy winning the MVP last season, or Hamilton winning it this season.

(03-13-2016 04:29 PM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  

(03-13-2016 12:41 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  

(03-13-2016 09:52 AM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  

(03-12-2016 02:13 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  Except I didn't, and wouldn't, project a big man who solely plays around the basket. I projected two guards and a stretch 4. You don't have to believe the stat, because I know there are clear faults in it. But if you look at metrics on Freeman he ranks behind Hamilton and Kelly in PER, behind Hamilton in Win Shares, and behind Hamilton (and interestingly enough Brandan Stith) in box score plus minus. I like to think in terms of stats and numbers, and it isn't like what I wrote is too much of an outlier.

You're absolutely right. They all could have easily averaged 30 a game and dozens of people could have scored 42 on Friday against WKU to set the new conference tournament scoring record in a game. Heck, I don't know why they don't just take every shot, average 80 a game and watch the victories stack up. I guess guys like Evans of Rice just don't want to score that much to help their team win ... go figure?

I don't even know how to argue with this type of stupidity. Nothing I've said is an indictment of ODU's system this year, just what would happen if you put other guys in a similar system. Disagree with my stat all you want, but you can't disagree with every metric that illustrates the same point. I'm done with this conversation. I don't dislike Freeman, I think he's a great player, and as I've said before, he has the potential to play in the NBA.

I agree that it is stupid and you'd be arguing with yourself! You're the one that stated that with more (or the same number of) shot attempts all of those players you mentioned could score more than Freeman (or basically 30 which I mentioned above). Certainly they would score more than they did with more shots taken. The law of averages indicates that they would not miss everything that they shot with the additional shots that they took (they are bound to hit some of them), but how many more neither you nor your metrics know. Several of us have replied that in real life it doesn't work out quite that way simply by increasing the data to a higher figure and saying this guy would likely score 27.1, this one 26.7, etc. There are any number of reasons why players in most any sport reach a tipping point of diminishing returns where their numbers simply don't do what you are implying they would (or implying they could). That is really the ONLY point here. Where does your metrics reach that tipping point??? Perhaps those players you mentioned already did reach or go beyond that tipping point with their current averages (and shot attempts) and that is why they didn't shoot more than they did. Perhaps Freeman reached or surpassed his too and if he had taken a few less shots a game and then you ran your numbers on him it would have shown he would have scored 28-30 had he shot as many times as he actually did. If any of the players you mentioned either reached or slightly surpassed their tipping points then your data right out of the box is off as soon as you start expanding it outward based upon their current averages. You simply don't know so it is silly to speculate otherwise and then to get offended if challenged because of it.

You want to put those "other guys in a similar system" as what Freeman is playing in. Hell, Baycote is very skilled senior back court player (made the all tournament team) that actually plays for ODU and even he isn't "in a similar system" as far as attempting to do what Freeman does. Freeman frequently plays 40 minutes, is constantly running side to side, baseline to top of the key and back off screens trying to get just a foot or two of separation to shoot what often is a contested turn around jump shot. Baycote is a different style of player and isn't adept at doing that. No way a guy like Kelly that you listed can do that time and time again down the floor (if at all) which makes your "system" quote absurd. Sure Baycote (or Kelly, or Hamilton, or Evans) could shoot more shots and score more points than they did otherwise, but they would not ALL be the same kind of shots if they were taking an additional 10 or more shots per game as the ones they actually were already taking. Those guys took the shots that matched their game same as Freeman did. In his case that allows for a lot more opportunities to take his kind of shots than would be present for those others if they were playing in ODU's "system" or their own systems. Everything in sports isn't ALWAYS about statistics, especially when you are trying to expand on existing statistics and say this could be this if the frequency were increased. I've been an electrical engineer for the past 40+ years so I too know a bit about math and statistics. Even more important to this conversation, I've been closely following the game of college basketball longer than that.

No one here, including myself, have said or insinuated that you disliked Freeman so where did that come from?

Oh, and to have Dawgass agree with you isn't exactly compelling. He's a noted ODU hater that occasionally tries to mask it by saying something nice about ODU. Monarch Nation isn't so easily fooled.

Nobody said that I dislike Freeman, I just wanted to make sure ya'll realize I'm not on some sort of vendetta against him. What you're saying is valid, and your credentials are certainly better than mine. Nobody told you or is telling you to agree with the numbers. I can look at the stats and use them as an additional resource, and you can completely disregard them. In the end, the only thing I was trying to point out is that the sheer volume of shots that Freeman put up was probably a disadvantage to him. Hopefully with this, we can be done with all of this and move on.

ELW4796 I appreciate what you are saying and hope that you understand that I tend to speak rather directly and to the point about things. I realize that it can at times be taken the wrong way when it is the written word instead of the spoken word since the tone of the voice is missing. Rest assured that I meant no disrespect in my responses, nor do I take it that you meant any from yours.

I agree with you that Freeman would likely have been more efficient if he had taken fewer shots. But, being the good team mate he is, he took the shots that the coach wanted him to take in order to make the team successful. He has commented more than once this season on the post game radio show that he felt guilty shooting so often but the coach as well as his team mates wanted him to keep shooting the majority of the shots. He is truly a very humble young man and would have been content to have only shot just a couple of times per game if that would have benefited the team the most. People would be impressed with his work ethic. I've seen him with my own eyes before each home game going through his shot routine in his exercise clothes, full speed with the assistance of a manager firing passes out to him as he made his cuts, long before the rest of the team comes out of the locker room. I arrive early (about 1-1/2 hours prior to tip off) and he is already into his routine, clothes drenched in sweat, and it goes on for another half hour before the visitors start to arrive one by one on the court. He is always shooting at their end by himself and leaves to get cleaned up and into his game uniform when the first of the visitors arrives which is right around 1 hour prior to tip off. Don't know how long he was out there working out before I even get into the arena. Just know it has been a while since his clothes are soaked with sweat every time. Then seeing how much he runs around to get open in the games while rarely coming out of the action for a breather ... that kid has some kind of stamina.

My guess is that Evans is best suited to surpass what Freeman accomplished scoring wise with a similar number of shots. My reasons for saying that is because he is still young and learning the college game while already being highly successful at scoring. He has a versatile offensive game which makes him harder to defend (i.e. can shoot the 3, can handle the ball off the dribble extremely well, is aggressive at driving to the basket, is skilled at finishing in traffic when he gets there, and can hit his free throws). If he stays healthy, works hard on his game, and keeps the right mental attitude I fully expect him to be a 2,000 point scorer for Rice. I'm also very disappointed that being a local kid he isn't at ODU instead of Rice. Imagine how good ODU would have been this year with both him and Freeman starting in the back court and Baycote at the small forward with Stith in the middle.

(03-13-2016 10:15 PM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  ELW4796 I appreciate what you are saying and hope that you understand that I tend to speak rather directly and to the point about things. I realize that it can at times be taken the wrong way when it is the written word instead of the spoken word since the tone of the voice is missing. Rest assured that I meant no disrespect in my responses, nor do I take it that you meant any from yours.

I agree with you that Freeman would likely have been more efficient if he had taken fewer shots. But, being the good team mate he is, he took the shots that the coach wanted him to take in order to make the team successful. He has commented more than once this season on the post game radio show that he felt guilty shooting so often but the coach as well as his team mates wanted him to keep shooting the majority of the shots. He is truly a very humble young man and would have been content to have only shot just a couple of times per game if that would have benefited the team the most. People would be impressed with his work ethic. I've seen him with my own eyes before each home game going through his shot routine in his exercise clothes, full speed with the assistance of a manager firing passes out to him as he made his cuts, long before the rest of the team comes out of the locker room. I arrive early (about 1-1/2 hours prior to tip off) and he is already into his routine, clothes drenched in sweat, and it goes on for another half hour before the visitors start to arrive one by one on the court. He is always shooting at their end by himself and leaves to get cleaned up and into his game uniform when the first of the visitors arrives which is right around 1 hour prior to tip off. Don't know how long he was out there working out before I even get into the arena. Just know it has been a while since his clothes are soaked with sweat every time. Then seeing how much he runs around to get open in the games while rarely coming out of the action for a breather ... that kid has some kind of stamina.

My guess is that Evans is best suited to surpass what Freeman accomplished scoring wise with a similar number of shots. My reasons for saying that is because he is still young and learning the college game while already being highly successful at scoring. He has a versatile offensive game which makes him harder to defend (i.e. can shoot the 3, can handle the ball off the dribble extremely well, is aggressive at driving to the basket, is skilled at finishing in traffic when he gets there, and can hit his free throws). If he stays healthy, works hard on his game, and keeps the right mental attitude I fully expect him to be a 2,000 point scorer for Rice. I'm also very disappointed that being a local kid he isn't at ODU instead of Rice. Imagine how good ODU would have been this year with both him and Freeman starting in the back court and Baycote at the small forward with Stith in the middle.

No, in reality I appreciate your directness. You're actually qualified to make your argument and you did it in a way that wasn't just hurling vague statements and insults. And everything I've heard and seen from Freeman has been similar to what you're saying, which is why he's been easy to root for the past couple years (unlike most guys who drop 30 on your team consistently). As far as Evans goes I can imagine that's tough letting a local guy get away, but I love recruiting so I know ya'll have a pretty solid class coming in, so there'll be some good competition in the coming years.