(03-07-2016 06:49 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(03-07-2016 05:49 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(03-07-2016 05:46 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  I think Cincinnati will make it regardless of what happens.
I think UConn is 50/50 unless they beat Cincinnati.
I think Temple is 50/50 without beating the winner of Cincinnati/UConn.
I think Tulsa gets in if they make the tournament finals.
I think Houston has to win it.

Tulsa has no chance, CBI maybe, but no shot at the tourney.

Their resume is better than many realize. I think the road SMU win will carry a lot of weight, as will the nonconference win over wichita state. I think their overall resume is better than any AAC team except Cincinnati right now. 8 RPI top 100 wins, 5 wins over tournament caliber teams (6 if you count Houston).

7 now that Iona is in the field. We also had 'close' losses to UALR, UCONN, Temple. The other losses were moderate ones to tourney teams with the exception of Houston and Memphis.

Love the saltiness from Cincy and UConn fans towards Temple. Guess that's what happens when you get dealt two losses each from us, enjoy

(03-08-2016 08:30 AM)TforTempleU Wrote:  Love the saltiness from Cincy and UConn fans towards Temple. Guess that's what happens when you get dealt two losses each from us, enjoy

Its not 'saltiness', but call it that if you want...

your computer numbers and non-conference record are ATROCIOUS.

UC and UCONN have the best at-large resumes. period. they are top 30 in Sagarin, BPI, Kenpom...but sure, lets call it salt...

Monmouth will probably get in because they have been a media darling all year long.

(03-08-2016 08:30 AM)TforTempleU Wrote:  Love the saltiness from Cincy and UConn fans towards Temple. Guess that's what happens when you get dealt two losses each from us, enjoy

Not salty at all with Temple, just giving my honest assessment of what the committee will do. Temple has done what it needed in conference and pulled out some huge games late, but their predictive metrics aren't good and they did nothing out of conference. ..that matters too

Everyone talks about Temple’s bad OOC performance, but if (big if) there is such a thing as a good loss I don’t think it will hurt Temple as much as everyone thinks.

Temple was 6 and 6 in OOC play and all 6 losses were to NCAA tournament teams.
#1 seed Villanova
#1 seed North Carolina
#3 seed Utah
#6 seed Wisconsin
#9 seed St Joes
#10 seed Butler

Of the other 4 losses all were in conference and only 2 would be considered bad at this point, @ ECU and @ Memphis.

I still feel like Temple needs to win 2 games to be safe, I just don’t think the OOC losses will hurt as badly as fans here think they will.

What does it say about the UConn and Cincy programs that are winless against a "mediocre" Temple Team? I wonder if the committee will look at that when its time to choose?

What does it say about Temple that they won the league and may still not go to the NCAA?

UC, UConn, and Temple have name cache and a great string of tournament appearances. Cincy and Uconn have made 19 of the last 25 NCAA tournaments. I'm not sure about Temple, but I'll bet its close.

point is, to these schools, the committee looks for reasons NOT to include them.

Tulsa, Houston have to overcome the fact that they do not have that recent history. They need to do more than the previous three to impress. The committee looks for reasons TO include these schools.

It's definitely salty. Pretty much everything I've read says Temple should feel very good about their chances. This board is about the only place that completely discounts them.

(03-08-2016 09:29 AM)TempleU22 Wrote:  It's definitely salty. Pretty much everything I've read says Temple should feel very good about their chances. This board is about the only place that completely discounts them.

Um... most brackets have them in because they are the 1 seed and they have them as the default Automatic bid. Bracket Matrix conglomerates every projection... Temple is below every single at large team in the conglomeration. The idea that pretty much everything says Temple should feel good about their chances is DEMONSTRATABLY FALSE.

I think they are 50/50 unless they beat UConn/Cincy one more time. That's not a crazy position. To me without that win they'll be right at the cut line, on one side or the other. Get defensive all you want, but it's not salty. I hope Temple makes it, I'm just telling you what my evaluation of resumes is telling me.

Here is bracket matrix for you to look at. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Lunardi has UC as a 9 seed, which would be safely in at the moment. Connecticut as the last team in.

The only way this league is a one-bid league is if Cincy knocks of Uconn and Temple, then beats a Houston or Memphis on the other side for the title. Which, would be hi-LARIOUS!

I think Uconn wins the first game though, locking up two bids, then if Temple beats Uconn, there's 3. NOW the fun begins...if Temple loses in the finals to Tulsa/Memphis/Houston, this might just be a four bid league. wow. Anything still possible.

I think the winner of the #4 vs #5 AAC Tourn game goes dancing. (Not so sure of the loser).

(03-08-2016 09:29 AM)TempleU22 Wrote:  It's definitely salty. Pretty much everything I've read says Temple should feel very good about their chances. This board is about the only place that completely discounts them.

That is because this board is over run with UC fans.

(03-08-2016 09:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  What does it say about Temple that they won the league and may still not go to the NCAA?

Baxetball is rigged & a dumb sport

(03-08-2016 09:47 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(03-08-2016 09:29 AM)TempleU22 Wrote:  It's definitely salty. Pretty much everything I've read says Temple should feel very good about their chances. This board is about the only place that completely discounts them.

Um... most brackets have them in because they are the 1 seed and they have them as the default Automatic bid. Bracket Matrix conglomerates every projection... Temple is below every single at large team in the conglomeration. The idea that pretty much everything says Temple should feel good about their chances is DEMONSTRATABLY FALSE.

I think they are 50/50 unless they beat UConn/Cincy one more time. That's not a crazy position. To me without that win they'll be right at the cut line, on one side or the other. Get defensive all you want, but it's not salty. I hope Temple makes it, I'm just telling you what my evaluation of resumes is telling me.

Here is bracket matrix for you to look at. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Saying that most brackets have them in only as an autobid is dishonest. I don't know how many people even do the autobid thing but Lunardi has already explicitly said they're in regardless. You can assume all of those 10 seeds have them in regardless as well.

Even so, you're analysis isn't what I was referring to in the first place. You acknowledge that they have a reasonable shot regardless. There's just some fans on here who somehow have them way below the other AAC bubble teams. Anyone doing that is a slave to KenPom/Sagarin

(03-08-2016 09:47 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(03-08-2016 09:29 AM)TempleU22 Wrote:  It's definitely salty. Pretty much everything I've read says Temple should feel very good about their chances. This board is about the only place that completely discounts them.

Um... most brackets have them in because they are the 1 seed and they have them as the default Automatic bid. Bracket Matrix conglomerates every projection... Temple is below every single at large team in the conglomeration. The idea that pretty much everything says Temple should feel good about their chances is DEMONSTRATABLY FALSE.

I think they are 50/50 unless they beat UConn/Cincy one more time. That's not a crazy position. To me without that win they'll be right at the cut line, on one side or the other. Get defensive all you want, but it's not salty. I hope Temple makes it, I'm just telling you what my evaluation of resumes is telling me.

Here is bracket matrix for you to look at. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

DEMONSTRATABLY (sic) EMPTY post.

NCAA: Tulsa Cincy
NIT: Temple (first out) UCONN (next out) Houston
CBI: Memphis?

Here is what I said about Temple prior to the tournament last year:
" I’m in the minority but I think Temple should be very worried at this point ... Temple is only 2-8 against the RPI top 50. Looking deeper a lot of those losses are to really good teams (5 in RPI top 13), but 2 wins over tournament type teams isn’t ideal. The Kansas win will carry a lot of weight, but I’m not sure it carry’s enough considering both of Temple’s wins over tournament competition were at home. "

Sometimes people aren't out to get you, they are just giving their honest assessment of what they think will happen. Despite the crazy, paranoid Temple fans around here, I'd be happy if they made it and think they have a good shot to do so, but they will be at best among the last in without a win over UConn/Cincy winner.

Basically, Temple fans stop being so defensive about your team. There's a reason the conglomeration at bracketmatrix has them below every other at large team. They are no slam dunk.