So, remember earlier in the year when we were worried about losses against UNCW, Tennessee Tech, and UNCA and were wondering how good Green Bay really is?

Well, UNCA punched their ticket yesterday, and it looks like a 50/50 shot that UNCW will punch theirs today. Green Bay is also in the semis of the Horizon league after trouncing their first round opponent. TN Tech didn't play well in the tournament, but ended up with a 12-6 conference record. All better than expected, for sure. Not that I'm happy with getting trounced by UNCA still...

Basically, it is still very possible that the Bucs have 4 conference champions on their schedule (UNCA, UNCW, GB, and Nova). How crazy would that end up being? It would basically mean that are only REALLY bad loss this entire year was to Charleston Southern.

Also, we are up to 87 in the RPI - and that's before factoring in our win yesterday, UNCW's win, and UNCA making the tournament. If we defeat Chattanooga tonight, I firmly expected us to be between 65-75 in the RPI. That's a 13 seed in all likelihood.

I was going to make a similar post about UNCW and UNCA success this year. I do wish we could have played those game later in the year, as we might have had a different result in at least one of them. I especially wish we could have the Charleston Southern loss back, that was a bad one. No doubt we played a tough schedule this year and that will help us out if we can pull out a win tonight.

I also was going to make a similar post, so well done.
However, if we are fortunate enough to win tonight, there's no way we do better than a 14 seed, and actually I think that's possibly optimistic. Would love to be wrong on that!

I was never worried (much) about the UNC-W loss, or all that much about the UNC-A loss, as it was clear they were good teams. But the Charleston Southern one was brutal. *This* is why the "3 days in March" mantra kills me. There's ALL THE WORLD difference between a 12-13 seed and a 15-16 seed, and we all know (well, except maybe for some of you younger guys) we've been screwed so much in the past on this issue.
We just don't want to have to worry about the committee giving us a 15 when we know we're in reality a 12 (just as a hypothetical example; not saying we would deserve a 12 this year).

Follow-up:
Heck, if Chattanooga wins, I doubt they'll do better than 12, and maybe that's optimistic. More likely they'll be a 13, or possibly as bad as 14, although I doubt they'd drop that low. Point being, if Chatt would be a 12 or 13, there's no way we'd be a 13. Again, hope I'm totally wrong!

I'm probably being very optimistic. I don't see a 15 though. Either way - an overall tough schedule with maybe one bad loss.

The projections I have been seeing are UTC as a 14 seed. That would seemingly put us at a 15 seed. I hate even talking about this until we beat UTC tonight.

I don't see how UTC is a 14. Their RPI is in the 50's. They would be a 13 at least.

ETSU RPI up to 83 after the Furman win.

(03-07-2016 12:54 PM)ETSUfan1 Wrote:  I don't see how UTC is a 14. Their RPI is in the 50's. They would be a 13 at least.

http://www.midmajormadness.com/2016/3/2/...prediction

This article says the Mocs could be anywhere from 11 to 14, but they predict a 12-seed. For the Bucs they predict a 14-seed.

I think 12 sounds a little high for the Mocs, but I don't see how they should be worse than a 13-seed. For the Bucs, who cares? Just get there and we'll be happy.

(03-07-2016 01:54 PM)Flippmb Wrote:  http://www.midmajormadness.com/2016/3/2/...prediction

This article says the Mocs could be anywhere from 11 to 14, but they predict a 12-seed. For the Bucs they predict a 14-seed.

I think 12 sounds a little high for the Mocs, but I don't see how they should be worse than a 13-seed. For the Bucs, who cares? Just get there and we'll be happy.

I agree I will be happy just to make it but our chances of winning go up exponentially if we get a 14 seed as opposed to a 15 or 16 seed.

As long as the Bucs play hard tonight, no team complaints. I think 15 seed is probable and perhaps fair if the Bucs beat Chatt. But you never know better or worse depending on the other teams that make it and how the wind blows.

(03-07-2016 02:02 PM)brock20 Wrote:  

(03-07-2016 01:54 PM)Flippmb Wrote:  http://www.midmajormadness.com/2016/3/2/...prediction

This article says the Mocs could be anywhere from 11 to 14, but they predict a 12-seed. For the Bucs they predict a 14-seed.

I think 12 sounds a little high for the Mocs, but I don't see how they should be worse than a 13-seed. For the Bucs, who cares? Just get there and we'll be happy.

I agree I will be happy just to make it but our chances of winning go up exponentially if we get a 14 seed as opposed to a 15 or 16 seed.

Agree. And that word "exponentially" is accurate. That's why I posted that long, rambling post 2-3 weeks ago. We've been royally screwed with seeding in the past, and most of us know many of those years we've been 2-4 seeds better than what we've been "assigned". And that's not just woofing, the proof is in how close we've played Wake, Pitt, etc. I'd rather be playing in a 3/14 game ANY day than trying to be the first team to win a 1/16 game - although that'd be cool, too. But history would be very, very heavily stacked against us -as has been the case too often.

"Get there and be happy" is the murry bartow school of success (along with "we won 20"). We've done that; we want more. We can have more. Not necessarily this year, but a) why not? and b) at least *act like* we are better than just getting there and being cannon fodder for 'nova (or whoever) again.