The bottom line to these given rules now put a cap on the all the change.

1. You can have a CCG with less than 12 members.
2. Each G-5 conference gets 10 million per conference from the CFP not 1 million per school
3. The 10 Conference agreement revenue distribution in place for another 10 years

This Translates to the following:

1. Any FCS school that did not move from FCS to FBS by now will have no chance of moving up. (Coastal Carolina got the lucky last spot)

2. G-5 conferences will not replace schools if raided unless their number falls below 10 schools

3. Realignment is basically over. The most that could happen is the Big 12 invite 2 teams and thats where it would stop.

4. There would be no support from the P-5 and G-5 conferences to vote to add an 11th FBS Conference to split revenue further , even in the next agreement 10 years from now.

So all you posters that keep comming up with these splitting of conferences, trading teams, forming a new conferences it simply is not going to happen period...

END OF STORY

David and Eric will find a solution

I am sure the next plan will be a Galactic Conference featuring teams from the moon, Mars and beyond

(03-05-2016 11:45 AM)Hilltop75 Wrote:  I am sure the next plan will be a Galactic Conference featuring teams from the moon, Mars and beyond

And North Dakota State and West Texas A&M

Besides locked out schools going to court I only see one possibility.

The AAC raiding the MWC and then it probably stops there.
The AAC schools aren't hobo poor and splitting ten million ten ways vs fourteen doesn't matter.
Adding the right additions like UNM and UNLV hurt the MWC .
Those two get to play in a better basketball conference and against Texas teams. They also get out of the unbalanced TV deal into a normal revenue sharing conference.

Swapping SBC and CUSA teams is dumb most of the schools can't pay the fees. Both have poor academic schools mixed in with a few exceptions.

Realignment will never stop of we would have nothing to talk about.

The 10 million rule is interesting.

What it basically says is that all G5 conferences get the 10 million dollars. Its not done on a per school basis.

Let's say if there was a southern breakout conference with a strong football of 8 teams. They would be able to pick up 10 million dollars plus split the bonus pool only 8 ways.

Marshall
Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
Arkansas State
La Tech
Southern Miss
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State

CUSA would be left with 9 teams and the SBC with 7. Who is going to be able to keep a G5 designation in this case?

Texas State and Louisiana would want to join CUSA West w/Texas schools
Georgia State in CUSA East w/Florida schools

Costal, ULM, Troy and USA could survive as Independents for a while with no CFP cash. They could play NMSU and UMass in football every year.

So yes, instead of seeing FCS-FBS upgrades you may see the G5 create smaller conferences with more schools getting left out. Some of these schools like Idaho may not make it if they don't bring enough value.

A MAC scenario. B12 does an eastern pivot expansion of UConn, UC. The AAC then wants to stay strong in the NE with UMass and Buffalo.

The MAC is then at 11 schools with Buffalo gone. It doesn't make sense to move East. EMU has cronic attendance issues in FB. Akron has just dropped baseball. Kent State has made only 1 bowl game since 1972.

MAC-8
Ball State
Bowling Green
Central Mich
Miami
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Toledo
Western Michigan

MAC could move its basketball tournament to Toledo with its new downtown 8,000 seat arena. Keep the championship game at Ford Field.

EMU, Kent State, Akron are then in an Idaho situation. The SBC won't take them in. They can try to hang in as Independents or they can move down to FCS.

(03-05-2016 10:24 AM)Hilltop75 Wrote:  This Translates to the following:

1. Any FCS school that did not move from FCS to FBS by now will have no chance of moving up. (Coastal Carolina got the lucky last spot).

Probably right.

2. G-5 conferences will not replace schools if raided unless their number falls below 10 schools.

Disagree. I can envision several scenarios where a G5 conference might expand back to 12 or more if it dropped to 10. However, none of those scenarios involve promotion of a FCS school.

3. Realignment is basically over. The most that could happen is the Big 12 invite 2 teams and thats where it would stop.

Disagree. Consolidation will continue to occur over time. In other words, I don't think that the Big 10 and SEC will stay at 14 forever.

4. There would be no support from the P-5 and G-5 conferences to vote to add an 11th FBS Conference to split revenue further , even in the next agreement 10 years from now.

OK. Sure. Not earth-shattering but hard to dispute.

END OF STORY

(03-05-2016 01:34 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The 10 million rule is interesting.

What it basically says is that all G5 conferences get the 10 million dollars. Its not done on a per school basis.

Let's say if there was a southern breakout conference with a strong football of 8 teams. They would be able to pick up 10 million dollars plus split the bonus pool only 8 ways.

Marshall
Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
Arkansas State
La Tech
Southern Miss
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State

The problem with any breakout conference is 2 fold.

1. It is very difficult to kick teams out of an existing conference.

2. The money from the CFP Has an agreement that runs another 10 years and only the 10 existing conferences named in the agreement can share in the money.

(03-05-2016 01:53 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  A MAC scenario. B12 does an eastern pivot expansion of UConn, UC. The AAC then wants to stay strong in the NE with UMass and Buffalo.

The MAC is then at 11 schools with Buffalo gone. It doesn't make sense to move East. EMU has cronic attendance issues in FB. Akron has just dropped baseball. Kent State has made only 1 bowl game since 1972.

MAC-8
Ball State
Bowling Green
Central Mich
Miami
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Toledo
Western Michigan

MAC could move its basketball tournament to Toledo with its new downtown 8,000 seat arena. Keep the championship game at Ford Field.

EMU, Kent State, Akron are then in an Idaho situation. The SBC won't take them in. They can try to hang in as Independents or they can move down to FCS.

Kent will never be left out - they are in the special club with Miami, Ohio and BG. EMU and Akron could be left out. Then you have 9 teams.

(03-06-2016 11:35 AM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(03-05-2016 01:53 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  A MAC scenario. B12 does an eastern pivot expansion of UConn, UC. The AAC then wants to stay strong in the NE with UMass and Buffalo.

The MAC is then at 11 schools with Buffalo gone. It doesn't make sense to move East. EMU has cronic attendance issues in FB. Akron has just dropped baseball. Kent State has made only 1 bowl game since 1972.

MAC-8
Ball State
Bowling Green
Central Mich
Miami
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Toledo
Western Michigan

MAC could move its basketball tournament to Toledo with its new downtown 8,000 seat arena. Keep the championship game at Ford Field.

EMU, Kent State, Akron are then in an Idaho situation. The SBC won't take them in. They can try to hang in as Independents or they can move down to FCS.

Kent will never be left out - they are in the special club with Miami, Ohio and BG. EMU and Akron could be left out. Then you have 9 teams.

Kent was put to vote with EMU for removal in the early 80s.

Their FB/BB funding is anchored to the bottom of the conference.

(03-06-2016 11:40 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(03-06-2016 11:35 AM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(03-05-2016 01:53 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  A MAC scenario. B12 does an eastern pivot expansion of UConn, UC. The AAC then wants to stay strong in the NE with UMass and Buffalo.

The MAC is then at 11 schools with Buffalo gone. It doesn't make sense to move East. EMU has cronic attendance issues in FB. Akron has just dropped baseball. Kent State has made only 1 bowl game since 1972.

MAC-8
Ball State
Bowling Green
Central Mich
Miami
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Toledo
Western Michigan

MAC could move its basketball tournament to Toledo with its new downtown 8,000 seat arena. Keep the championship game at Ford Field.

EMU, Kent State, Akron are then in an Idaho situation. The SBC won't take them in. They can try to hang in as Independents or they can move down to FCS.

Kent will never be left out - they are in the special club with Miami, Ohio and BG. EMU and Akron could be left out. Then you have 9 teams.

Kent was put to vote with EMU for removal in the early 80s.

Their FB/BB funding is anchored to the bottom of the conference.

And Kent survived the vote over 30 years ago and will easily survive a vote today.

(03-05-2016 10:32 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  David and Eric will find a solution

David has already found it, In fact, he's identified schools with no football programs jumping all the way to FBS. He's also identified cities such as Louisville who will start up a football team, then build a 35 book library and call it a college. He has not identified the fast food restaurant that will sponsor the team yet. Cheers!

(03-05-2016 01:34 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The 10 million rule is interesting.

What it basically says is that all G5 conferences get the 10 million dollars. Its not done on a per school basis.

Let's say if there was a southern breakout conference with a strong football of 8 teams. They would be able to pick up 10 million dollars plus split the bonus pool only 8 ways.

Marshall
Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
Arkansas State
La Tech
Southern Miss
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State

CUSA would be left with 9 teams and the SBC with 7. Who is going to be able to keep a G5 designation in this case?

Texas State and Louisiana would want to join CUSA West w/Texas schools
Georgia State in CUSA East w/Florida schools

Costal, ULM, Troy and USA could survive as Independents for a while with no CFP cash. They could play NMSU and UMass in football every year.

So yes, instead of seeing FCS-FBS upgrades you may see the G5 create smaller conferences with more schools getting left out. Some of these schools like Idaho may not make it if they don't bring enough value.

Those are very good football programs, but because all the changes the last couple of years are about rewarding programs that win, why would they want to make it harder to win?

I do not think that the P5's will add additional teams.

Why:

1. They really don't think they are any teams in the G5 that move the needle enough to make their addition revenue positive. (look how long the Big 12 has waited on expansion)

2. These schools that are in the big money conferences with their own networks have a tremendous recruiting advantage over other division one schools, Why add more completion.

3. And as much talk there has been about P5 conferences consolidating to just P4 . That is not happening either. Remember the Grant in media rights that some conferences have in place and no current commish wants to lose his job.

(03-06-2016 04:41 PM)Hilltop75 Wrote:  I do not think that the P5's will add additional teams.

Why:

1. They really don't think they are any teams in the G5 that move the needle enough to make their addition revenue positive. (look how long the Big 12 has waited on expansion)

2. These schools that are in the big money conferences with their own networks have a tremendous recruiting advantage over other division one schools, Why add more completion.

3. And as much talk there has been about P5 conferences consolidating to just P4 . That is not happening either. Remember the Grant in media rights that some conferences have in place and no current commish wants to lose his job.

The only schools that I can see that could be brought up to FBS are the schools that does carry well in tv viewers.

North Dakota State Vs Montana had over 1 million viewers which is better than most G5 schools in C-USA and SBC. Wichita State, Missouri State and some schools like that could bring viewership because of their men's basketball programs. If Villanova and Georgetown decides to get really serious for football? Than, I could see them get picked up.
Jacksonville State is also starting to get a following of viewers on TV. Sadly, some of the G5 schools added schools that have no history of tv viewership which hurt them overall on their tv contracts.

Georgia State and Coastal Carolina are the biggest mistakes that the Sun Belt did. There are better teams that do have a better following than those 2. Sun Belt might have gotten a much better tv contract if Jacksonville State and McNeese State were added than Coastal Carolina and Georgia State.

(03-06-2016 08:10 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-06-2016 04:41 PM)Hilltop75 Wrote:  I do not think that the P5's will add additional teams.

Why:

1. They really don't think they are any teams in the G5 that move the needle enough to make their addition revenue positive. (look how long the Big 12 has waited on expansion)

2. These schools that are in the big money conferences with their own networks have a tremendous recruiting advantage over other division one schools, Why add more completion.

3. And as much talk there has been about P5 conferences consolidating to just P4 . That is not happening either. Remember the Grant in media rights that some conferences have in place and no current commish wants to lose his job.

The only schools that I can see that could be brought up to FBS are the schools that does carry well in tv viewers.

North Dakota State Vs Montana had over 1 million viewers which is better than most G5 schools in C-USA and SBC. Wichita State, Missouri State and some schools like that could bring viewership because of their men's basketball programs. If Villanova and Georgetown decides to get really serious for football? Than, I could see them get picked up.
Jacksonville State is also starting to get a following of viewers on TV. Sadly, some of the G5 schools added schools that have no history of tv viewership which hurt them overall on their tv contracts.

Georgia State and Coastal Carolina are the biggest mistakes that the Sun Belt did. There are better teams that do have a better following than those 2. Sun Belt might have gotten a much better tv contract if Jacksonville State and McNeese State were added than Coastal Carolina and Georgia State.

(03-05-2016 02:38 PM)David Krumudgen Wrote:  

(03-05-2016 01:34 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The 10 million rule is interesting.

What it basically says is that all G5 conferences get the 10 million dollars. Its not done on a per school basis.

Let's say if there was a southern breakout conference with a strong football of 8 teams. They would be able to pick up 10 million dollars plus split the bonus pool only 8 ways.

Marshall
Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
Arkansas State
La Tech
Southern Miss
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State

The problem with any breakout conference is 2 fold.

1. It is very difficult to kick teams out of an existing conference.

2. The money from the CFP Has an agreement that runs another 10 years and only the 10 existing conferences named in the agreement can share in the money.

This is the important one that many new conference advocates ignore. If schools decide to break away from one or more of the existing G5 conferences to form their own league, they won't get a dime of CFP money. This by itself almost ensures there won't be another MWC appearing in the next decade.

(03-07-2016 05:18 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(03-05-2016 02:38 PM)David Krumudgen Wrote:  

(03-05-2016 01:34 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  The 10 million rule is interesting.

What it basically says is that all G5 conferences get the 10 million dollars. Its not done on a per school basis.

Let's say if there was a southern breakout conference with a strong football of 8 teams. They would be able to pick up 10 million dollars plus split the bonus pool only 8 ways.

Marshall
Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
Arkansas State
La Tech
Southern Miss
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State

The problem with any breakout conference is 2 fold.

1. It is very difficult to kick teams out of an existing conference.

2. The money from the CFP Has an agreement that runs another 10 years and only the 10 existing conferences named in the agreement can share in the money.

This is the important one that many new conference advocates ignore. If schools decide to break away from one or more of the existing G5 conferences to form their own league, they won't get a dime of CFP money. This by itself almost ensures there won't be another MWC appearing in the next decade.

Depends if that breakaway is aligned with CFP negotiations.

Plan to do it the year when the next CFP 6 year contract starts.

Make it so the SBC is incapacitated as an FBS conference so the CFP will have to acknowledge the new one.